Three cases where ORACLE Crystal Ball was used effectively to enhance the product development cycle, including financial benefits.

1. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 1 Name: Ramon (Ray) Balisnomo Title/Position: Design for Six Sigma Instructor/Engr. Company: Ingersoll Rand Securities Technologies CONTACT INFORMATION: E-mail: ramon_balisnomo@irco.com rbalisnomo@gmail.com Telephone: 719-896-3604

2. Analyzing test lab data Exercise 1 of 3 Establishing Product Performance Targets 1 R Balisnomo 3/3/2010

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7. R Balisnomo 7 Objectives: How hard should the face plate be for maximum strength? What is certainty that the deadbolt will tolerate 4,150 ft-lbs of force? Strength Frame machine was used for measuring the pull strength. 3/3/2010

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13. T = Min + Adjustment

14. Adjustment < Range

15. Y = predicted pull strength @ TThen, Y = -113.23T2+ 9510.1T - 195486 3/3/2010

16. R Balisnomo 13 40.9 3/3/2010 4065

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19. R Balisnomo 16 Min X Max X 3/3/2010

20. R Balisnomo 17 Optimal Y Adjustment <[Max-Min] Min X Target Value Max X 3/3/2010

21. R Balisnomo 18 Performance Goal Optimal Y Adjustment <[Max-Min] Min X Target Value Max X 3/3/2010

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29. R Balisnomo 26 Answers: How hard should the face plate be for maximum strength? 42.0 Rockwell C for an expected pull strength of 4,200 ft-lbs. What is certainty that the deadbolt will tolerate 4,150 ft-lbs of force? 99.84% @ 42.0 Rockwell C Strength Frame machine was used for measuring the pull strength. 3/3/2010

30. R Balisnomo 27 ORACLE Crystal Ball is needed in new product development because: Errors are inherent in all predictive models (e.g., Linear Regression or Design of Experiments). We need a tool for modeling them (risks) so that our new products perform as expected. Often times we are searching for that “Sweet Spot” or Optimal Point that lets our product perform at its peak best. We want to know the probability of success (or failure) associated with our design or performance goals. 3/3/2010

31. Linear statistical stack-ups Exercise 2 of 3 Robust Tolerance Design 2 R Balisnomo 3/3/2010

32. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 29 Schlage ND-Series Heavy Duty Commercial Cylindrical Lever Lock  Based on the survey response of 107 customers in July 2009

33. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 30 +40 interdependent critical dimensions in the ND Lock

34. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 31 Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble USL = 0.02 USL = 0

35. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 32 Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble USL = 0.02 Horizontal USL = 0

36. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 33 Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble Horizontal USL = 0 USL = 0.03 Axial

37. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 34 Use Copy & Paste for Horizontal & Axial, but don’t forget to change USL=0.03 for Axial Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble USL = 0.02 USL = 0

38. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 35 Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble USL = 0.02 USL = 0

39. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 36 Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble USL = 0.02 Horizontal USL = 0

40. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 37 Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble Horizontal USL = 0 USL = 0.03 Axial

41. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 38 Financial Analysis of Wobble Problem

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49. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 46 Before  After OptQuest 2% improvement Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble USL = 0.02 USL = 0

50. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 47 Before  After OptQuest 2% improvement Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble USL = 0.02 Horizontal USL = 0

51. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 48 Before  After OptQuest 73% improvement Vertical Technical Definition of Wobble Horizontal USL = 0 USL = 0.03 Axial

52. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 49 Financial Analysis of Wobble Problem

53. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 50 Optional Step: If you only want to run 1 out of 4 possible Forecast (Outputs)

54. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 51 99% @ $394 88% @ $900 A D 86% @ $957 E 95% @ $634 B -$380 82% @ $1062 F 90% @ $835 C Which Horse Would You Bet On?

55. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 52 99% Certain we can save at least $394K by changing the nominal drawing dimensions.

56. R Balisnomo 53 ORACLE Crystal Ball® is needed in new product development because: When it comes to tolerance stack-ups1 there is no better tool for optimizing fit and function. Humans typically cannot simultaneously adjust +40 interdependent variables at the same time. It’s exponentially easier to fix the problem in the Design Phase then it is to fix the problem once the product has launched. It’s a good tool for translating quality and engineering terms into language finance and management can understand. 3/3/2010 1. note: Cartesian -- not GD&T

57. Efficient Frontier Exercise 3 of 3 Cost Versus Quality 3 R Balisnomo 3/3/2010

58. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 55 3. Extract Current Security Control Key 2. Rotate 30 Degrees CCW NEW 4. Insert New Security Control Key 5. Rotate back to home position The New Way to Rekey a Lock 1. Insert Current Security Control Key NEW

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60. R Balisnomo 57 1 = choose this supplier to make this part 0 = do NOT choose this supplier 3/3/2010 Key:

62. Cpk = 1.75 (99.99%)

63. Unit Cost = $3.49

64. “Cheap” Supplier

65. Cpk = 0.59 (60.64%)

66. Unit Cost = $0.993/3/2010

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69. 61 R Balisnomo Objective: If the requirement is 0.5<Cpk < 0.9, find the lowest cost supplier(s) If the requirement is 0.9<Cpk < 1.3, find the lowest cost supplier(s) If the requirement is 1.3<Cpk < 1.7, find the lowest cost supplier(s) If the requirement is Cpk > 1.7, find the lowest cost supplier(s) 3/3/2010

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71. 63 R Balisnomo The model does not know that only one of the four suppliers can produce each part. We have to specify this constraint into the analysis. 3/3/2010

72. 64 R Balisnomo This constraint only allows one supplier out of four to produce each part. 3/3/2010

73. 65 R Balisnomo Due to time constraints, we may be running the optimization for a much-less time (only 3-5 minutes); thus, your actual results may vary from this presentation. 3/3/2010

74. R Balisnomo 66 1,135 simulations @ 10,000 runs per simulation (11,350,000 data points) in 10 minutes, or 18,917 data points per second. 3/3/2010

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80. 72 R Balisnomo (1.72, $3.44) (1.35, $2.55) (0.92, $1.62) (0.59, $0.99) Trade-off Curve between Quality and Unit Cost. Due to a shorter number of runs, your results may vary from what is being shown here. 3/3/2010

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82. R Balisnomo 74 ORACLE Crystal Ball® is needed in new product development because: The trade-offs between RISK and REWARD are difficult to quantify. Efficient Frontiers is a tool that specializes in the above. Simple YES/NO or GO/STOP decisions become complex in the face of so many combinations and permutations. Sometimes it’s better to let the a Computer make the long-term business decisions. We can make a lot of money by solving big and difficult problems in a short amount of time. 3/3/2010

83. 3/3/2010 R Balisnomo 75 The End Do you have any questions? Name: Ramon (Ray) Balisnomo Title/Position: Design for Six Sigma Instructor/Engr. Company: Ingersoll Rand Securities Technologies CONTACT INFORMATION: E-mail: ramon_balisnomo@irco.com rbalisnomo@gmail.com Telephone: 719-896-3604