This talk was given at Stanford Graduate School of Business by Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, and Nick Staubach. It is a basic introduction to the Technological Singularity and its relationship with entrepreneurship.

1. Technological Singularity & Entrepreneurship Or: why we will either live forever, or be killed by robots… Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, Nick Staubach

2. Overview / history / philosophy Robert Denning 2

3. What is the singularity? A singularity is a paradigm-shifting event… The “technological singularity” is a hypothetical event occurring when technological progress becomes so rapid and the growth of super-human intelligence is so great that the future after the singularity becomes qualitatively different and harder to predict. 3

4. Kurzweil’s Singularity The coming technological singularity will allow us to augment our bodies and minds with technology. The singularity will result from the combination of three important technologies of the 21st century: genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (including artificial intelligence). Four central postulates: A technological-evolutionary point known as "the singularity" exists as an achievable goal for humanity. Through a law of accelerating returns, technology is progressing toward the singularity at an exponential rate. The functionality of the human brain is quantifiable in terms of technology that we can build in the near future. Medical advancements make it possible for a significant number of his generation (Baby Boomers) to live long enough for the exponential growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain. 4

5. The Six Epochs 5 Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.

6. The Singularitarians Transhumanists, Immortalists, Extropians Techno-Utopians, Techno-Progressivists Blurring of human/machine Humans transcend limitations of their own biology Long-term immortality: Downloaded consciousness Upgraded human body “We have to live until the singularity” Museum of Death A just slightly more intelligent machine is all we need From there, machines and AI will perfect themselves Long-term problem-solving, an end to scarcity “There is a cosmic imperative to create more complexity” Museum of Poverty, Disease, Waste 6

7. Why is this good again?! Pop culture prefers the apocalyptic scenario… Skynet (Terminator) The Matrix I, Robot Frankenstein; cyborgs; “the Borg” But, as you’ll see, we are heading this way by forces beyond our control… Profit motives Desire for longevity And we are admittedly not preparing ourselves. But we can. 7

8. THE SINGULARITY COULD END UP BEING THE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE HUMAN RACE. FULL STOP. 8 The Goliath of totalitarianism will be brought down by the David of the microchip. – Ronald Reagan, The Guardian, 14 June 1989

9. The Law of Accelerating Returns An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. 9 So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).

10. Logarithmic Plot 10

11. Linear Plot 11

12. THE PARADIGM SHIFT RATE IS NOW DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY DECADE 12 Logarithmic Plot

13. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) EVERY YEAR 13

14. Moore’s Law is only one example Exponential Growth of Computing for 110 Years Moore's Law was the fifth, not the first, paradigm to bring exponential growth in computing Logarithmic Plot Calculations per Second per $1000 Year 14

15. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot 15

16. Logarithmic Plot 16

17. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot 17

18. Logarithmic Plot 18

19. Logarithmic Plot 19

20. EVERY FORM OF COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (PRICE - PERFORMANCE, BANDWIDTH, CAPACITY) IS DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY 12 MONTHS 20

21. Logarithmic Plot 21

22. Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot 22

23. Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot 23

24. Nanotechnology Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot 24

25. Artificial Intelligence (via humans) Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot 25

26. Biotechnology Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot 26

27. Law of Accelerating Returns is Driving Economic Growth The portion of a product or service’s value comprised of information is asymptoting to 100% The cost of information at every level incurs deflation at ~ 50% per year This is a powerful deflationary force Completely different from the deflation in the 1929 Depression (collapse of consumer confidence & money supply) This is why entrepreneurialism is so important 27

28. Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot 28

29. Logarithmic Plot 29

30. LogarithmicPlot 30

31. Logarithmic Plot 31

32. 32

33. Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot 33

34. Linear Plot Linear Plot Linear Plot Linear Plot 34

35. An example of Exponential Growth… 5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes 35

36. An example of Exponential Growth… 5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes  From the start of time  ~2003 36

37. An example of Exponential Growth… 5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes  From the start of time  ~2003  in 2010 ~ 2 Days 37

38. An example of Exponential Growth… 5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes  From the start of time  ~2003  in 2010 ~ 2 Days  in 2013 38

39. An example of Exponential Growth… 5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes  From the start of time  ~2003  in 2010 ~ 2 Days  in 2013 ~ 10 minutes 39

40. It’s going to happen… SO… We need to prepare; We need to consider the ethical implications and develop a new moral framework; We need to consider the social and political frameworks necessary to deal with the transition. BUT… You don’t need to accept everything that might be possible… …But you do need to recognize that this paradigm shift is potentially imminent and clearly inevitable (and that, at the very least, the gap between now and when it happens is closing at an exponentially faster rate)… And that the event horizon will be unpredictable, and seismic. 40

41. Genetics / Nanotechnology Randy Lubin 41

52. Your mobile phone has more computing power than all of NASA in 1969. NASA launched a man into the moon. We launch a bird into pigs. –George Bray

63. Genetics / Nanotechnology Randy Lubin 63

64. Robots and AI Nick Staubach

69. Key Thoughts This is an awesome time to be alive Don’t think linearly (Future’s Coming Fast) You will be driving this change

70. More Resources The Singularity is Near (Kurzweil) KurzweilAI.net SingularityHub.com