5TH INNOVATION SUMMIT (02/09/2012) The EU Commission awarded economist Dr. Rafael Popper from the University of Manchester a research grant to find out how to track down the signs of future developments. Developments which remain undetected on political radar yet are going to have implications for our future. What emerged are recommendations for research projects which are supposed to be funded by the EU Commission. And an internet platform that could perhaps be termed a kind of “Research Wikipedia”. People all over the world exchange signals and ideas for the future via a new platform. Just like they do via Twitter etc. nowadays.

1. Innovation Radar
How to track down future developments?
www.iknowfutures.eu

2. strategies
1st message
There are many “futures”
around us…

3. Innovation
Systems
 Our Mapping Foresight work has produced a > 1000 Mapping
vast amount of futures-related information cases mapped Foresight
unprecedented in the world > 2000
Identified Key Lessons
 Our Mapping Foresight activities have been +
useful to understand foresight practices Findings
in Europe and other world regions
846
cases mapped Mapping
> 1600 Foresight
identified &
Forecasting
767 Introducing
cases mapped Wild Cards &
> 1400 Introducing Weak Signals
identified networking (WI-WE)
(SNA) and systems
437 systemic +
cases mapped analyses Web 2.0 scanning
> 800 into +
identified Foresight
100 Bottom-up
cases mapped Evaluation
(Foresight Ark)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2012

5. 2nd message
There are many ways
of shaping our future…

6. NEW
Foresight & Horizon Scanning
(FHS) Process Management
Framework

7. 3 4
5
1 2

8. 3rd message
We have some tools to track
down future developments…

9. NEW
Methodology
Toolkit 44
methodology toolkit

11. So, how to track down
futures developments?

12. South
McArthur's Germany
Universal is here!
Corrective
Map of the North
World

13. S = Situation-bounded (time & context)
What EMERGING / NEW issues
WE WI
Interpretation & Sense-making
S4 may shape our future?
issues
WI What RE-EMERGING issues
assessment
level of uncertainty
WE S3 may shape our future?
issues
WI
WE
What issues may STOP S2
shaping the future?
issues
WI What issues may CONTINUE
WE shaping the future?
S1
issues
past today future

14. Top-Down
Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning
Outward-Looking
Inward-Looking
Strategy 1 Strategy 2
ILTD OLTD
YOUR AREA
OF CONCERN
Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning
Strategy 3 Strategy 4
ILBU OLBU
Bottom-Up

15. iKnow’s participatory HS approaches
1,700+
players
3 4
5
1 2

19. So far…
969 files
for
unregistered
users
vs.
1061 files
for
iKnow
members

21. New iKnowFuturesproposal submitted to the EC
1700+
members
in
80
countries
By 9.2.2012
Since Feb 2011

22. The iScanis
an advanced
strategic
intelligence,
foresight and
horizon
scanning
search
engine.
A kind of
“Issues
Google”

23. 1,000+ issues
mapped against
EC FP7 Themes,
FRASCATI,
NACE sectors and
Grand Challenges

24. Mapping Wild Cards Mapping Weak Signals
Nomination Nomination
1. source 1. source
2. theme 2. theme
3. sub-theme 3. sub-theme
4. references 4. references
5. short name / headline 5. short name / headline
6. Abstract 6. abstract
likelihood Description
18
7.
Description 1. manifestation
1. typology 2. potential implications
2. importance 3. importance
Analysis Analysis
early indicators 1. filters
criteria
1.
2. main drivers 2. main drivers
3. risks & opportunities 3. risks & opportunities
4. stakeholders’ actions 4. stakeholders’ actions
Interconnection Interconnection
1. Grand Challenges 1. Grand Challenges
2. thematic relevance 2. thematic relevance
3. ERA relevance 3. ERA relevance
4. research-friendly strategies 4. research-friendly strategies
5. RTD & STI policy relevance 5. RTD & STI policy relevance

25. Delphi results on September 2011
60 60 900+ ISSUES.
Key facts 4000+ assessments to
and
figures 60 Wild Cards
700+
respondents
2500+ assessments to
60 Weak Signals

26. Wild Cards Delphi
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Comments & full preview
Description & Desirability
Issue
Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking
Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU
assessment
1- Physical infrastructure
Potential 2 - Virtual infrastructure
impacts on 3 - Social welfare
(in Your Country 4 - Economy
platform & the EU)
Preparedness
5 - Security
6 - Policy & governance
7 - Environment & ecosystems
(iDelphi)
ERA relevance 8 - STI systems
Policy advice
Current signals indicating WI plausibility
Future signals indicating WI plausibility
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Analysis & Submission panels

27. CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars
AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change
CAP Administration rather than results a priority
SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
NUC Development of new materials
Weak ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
Signals SPA Privatisation of space flights
NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace
40%
SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"
NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating
match CAP
CAP
Lack of interest in science by young scholars
Administration rather than results a priority
Top 10 SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
Weak ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform
Signals ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
for ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications
AGR Bees be no more, less food than before
UK ENV
ENV
Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis
Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles
HEA Increasing Self-Medication

28. Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures
Social welfare Economy
Security Policy & governance
Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems
Suicide bombing in
Stockholm Sec Pol SoW
100%
Ph-I
Env 75%
Sec
50%
No strict global rules Growing privatisation Sec Pol Eco
on nuclear security 25% of war
0%
Scientists predict
Nuclear power plants
mobile phone viruses Sec STI
Vi-I Eco Sec built in third world Eco
will become a serious
countries
threat

30. 5 National Studies 66 Expert Interviews 44 Policy Alerts

31. From farmer to consumer: Diversifying crop
production and consumption.
Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat)
makes food production and consumption
vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new
wheat disease to develop it could have severe
implications for food markets worldwide, which
could have unforeseen consequences such as
starvation, civil unrest and high food prices.
There is a need to prepare for diversifying food
production and consumption in order to avoid
such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted
in order to better diversify their crops and
consumers should be made aware of a greater
variety of food products…

33. New Horizon Scanning System
delivering products & services
which meet the needs of senior
leaders and workforce planners
in health & social care in the UK
Research Technology Development
Networked
Innovation

34. Visioning Planning
Horizon Scanning Workforce Analysis I
• Key trends and dynamics • Robust analysis T
• Feed in to the scenario • Sustainable, affordable
generation
iB iS S
O
Future
iD iO L
U
Realisation Scenario Generation Workforce Modelling T
• Desired & possible •
futures Numbers, trends, uncertai
I
• Delphi to refine nty O
assumptions • Suite of demand models N
• Weak signals • Sensitivity analysis S
Customised
Products &
Services

35. Two Final Remarks
 We hope the EC will support our iKnowFuturesproposal
 2.5 Million Euro
 Focused on Grand Responses to Grand Societal Challenges
 17 partners in 11 countries
▪ UK, FR, GE, AT, CZ, SP, NL, CH, IL, RU, BR
 Meantime, we will continue providing customised solutions to players
willing to track down developments shaping their own futures…

36. [click on the images]