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GIB - Bankability Study by Marco Grossmann at GIB Summit

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Presented at the 4th Global Infrastructure Basel Summit 21 & 22 May 2014.
Read more about the world leading platform for Sustainable Infrastructure Finance at www.gib-foundation.org.
Next Summit: 27 & 28 May 2015 in Switzerland

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GIB - Bankability Study by Marco Grossmann at GIB Summit

  1. 1. GIB Bankability Study on City of Johannesburg Fuel Switch –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– May 21th 2014 Marco Grossmann Project Leader
  2. 2. 2 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Content 1) Goal of and Approach to the Bankability Study 2) Rea Vaya BRT and Metrobus 3) Draft Content Bankability Study
  3. 3. 3 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Goal and Approach The ultimate goal of the study is to create a document that serves potential investors as brochure for financing a fleet of approximately 400 Diesel Dual Fuel buses, by: • Applying the GIB Grading to mitigate risk and to showcase sustainability of the project in order to potentially lower borrowing/interest rates • Conducting in depth analysis of the fuel switch of Rea Vaya and Metrobus The approach is not to reinvent the wheel, but: • To hold qualitative interviews in order apply the GIB Grading • To collect, analyse and further develop already carried out work • To build a tailor made financial model
  4. 4. 4 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Rea Vaya BRT • Being rolled out in phases • Phase 1A: for 2010 SWC from Soweto to CBD • Phase 1B: second route from Soweto but different alignment • Phase 1C: linking North and South and creatingTOD opportunities
  5. 5. 5 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Rea Vaya • Phase 1A – 25k of trunk route (dedicated) for 18 m articulated buses – 3 complementary and 5 feeder routes using 13 m buses – 30 Rea Vaya stations service passengers – Passenger numbers average of 43 000 per day – 143 Euro IV buses – 1000 permanent employment – Registered for voluntary carbon credits • Phase 1B – Another 18 km, 17 stations – 134 Euro V buses – Being rolled out since October 2013 – Projected passenger numbers 60 000 per day – 600 permanent job opportunities
  6. 6. 6 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Metrobus Timeline • 1942: Metrobus established as City department • 2001: Metrobus becomes a municipal owned entity • 2010/11: Transport Department looks at future options for Metrobus to respond to changing public transport environment in City, aging fleet and outdated fare collection system Key facts and figures • 1000 employees • 450 buses • 3 major depots
  7. 7. Draft Content of Bankability Study Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com 7 1. Context and selected best practice examples 2. Sustainability and Risk Analysis 3. Technology analysis 4. Technology provider 5. Logistics/Infrastructure 6. Legal and Policy Framework 7. Financial Cost/Benefit Analysis
  8. 8. 8 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Sustainability and Risk Analysis 3.43 3.57 3.14 2.67 3.33 3.50 3.33 3.29 3.33 3.00 0 1 2 3 4 Accounta bility Transpare ncy Customer Focus Results Orientati on Poverty Responsiv eness Power- Balanced Partners… Shared Incentives Sound Financial Mechan… Proactive Risk Manage… Resource Protectio n Good Performance (65 Percentile) Modest Performance (10 Percentile) Self Evaluation
  9. 9. 9 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Technology Analysis 1/2 General Description of Dual Fuel Technology (DDF) • NGV market overview • Technical description of DDF Economy • Proven and Safe Technology • Reduced running cost due to lower cost of CNG • Effects on maintenance cost • Availability of CNG / Grid, possibility to diversify to Biogas/methane (Fuel Security) Ecology • Reduced Carbon Emissions (15 – 20 %) • Huge potential in Biogas/methane for further reduction (as well as NOx, PMs etc.) Society • Job creation opportunities through CNG, Biogas, TOD • Local assembly of body and chassis Ecology Society Economy
  10. 10. 10 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Technology Analysis 2/2 Building on todays innovation for tomorrows solutions Maturing “Fit for Purpose” technology Innovation Cycles for each solution in an integrated and sustainable manner Low Skill Jobs and High Innovation Medium Skill Jobs and High Innovation High Skill Jobs and High Innovation
  11. 11. 11 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Logistics and Infrastructure Stakeholder-Analysis • Gas Distributors, • Grid Operators, • Regulating Bodies Fuel Security • Pricing policies regarding CNG • Availability of CNG, incl. outlook • Solutions for Filling Stations
  12. 12. 12 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Legal and Policy Framework Policies and Regulations in place e.g.: • Municipal Financial Management Act • Supply Chain Management Act • Division of Revenue Act • Land Transport Act • Requirements towards local job creation, public consultation etc.
  13. 13. 13 Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation ©www.globalinfrastructurebasel.com Financial Cost/Benefit Analysis Composition of tailor made financial model, by comparing Diesel vs Diesel/Gas vs Dedicated CNG in terms of: • CAPEX, • OPEX (bus running and fix cost), • Rate of Return (IRR), • Net Present Value (NPV), • Payback time, lifetime analysis, • Sensitivity Analysis
  14. 14. Thank you for your attention! Contact information Mr. Marco Grossmann marco.grossmann@ecos.ch +41 (0)61 205 10 36