These slides were presented in a seminar at Queensland University of Technology on 1 December 2017.

1. David Hyland-Wood
david@hyland-wood.org
@prototypo
Controlling
Complexity
in software
development

2. Failed Software ProjectsFailureRate(%)
1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960
100
50
0

3. Failed Software ProjectsFailureRate(%)
1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960
100
50
0
35

4. Failed Software ProjectsFailureRate(%)
1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960
100
50
0
35
500M
100M
10M
1M
Microsoft
Visual Studio
Eclipse
Europa
Healthcare.gov
2013
2007
2005
Linesofcode

5. Image attributions provided on last slide.
Waterfall Methodology
Extreme Programming

6. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Independent/Hacker/Cowboy/Indie coding
Cap Gemini SDM
SSADM
Waterfall
DOD-STD-2167A
MIL-STD-498
IEEE 12207
Spiral
RAD
Scrum
RUP
AUP
XP
DAD
TSP
SAFe
LeSS
Lean
Kanban
Scrumban

7. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Independent/Hacker/Cowboy/Indie coding
Cap Gemini SDM
SSADM
Waterfall
DOD-STD-2167A
MIL-STD-498
IEEE 12207
Spiral
RAD
Scrum
RUP
AUP
XP
DAD
TSP
SAFe
LeSS
Lean
Kanban
Scrumban
“Agile”
Methodologies

8. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Independent/Hacker/Cowboy/Indie coding
Cap Gemini SDM
SSADM
Waterfall
DOD-STD-2167A
MIL-STD-498
IEEE 12207
Spiral
RAD
Scrum
RUP
AUP
XP
DAD
TSP
SAFe
LeSS
Lean
Kanban
Scrumban

9. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Independent/Hacker/Cowboy/Indie coding
Cap Gemini SDM
SSADM
Waterfall
DOD-STD-2167A
MIL-STD-498
IEEE 12207
Spiral
RAD
Scrum
RUP
AUP
XP
DAD
TSP
SAFe
LeSS
Lean
Kanban
Scrumban

10. What Affects Software Projects?
Factor Number of Possibilities
Methodologies 55
Programming languages 50
Nature, class, and type of application 15
Capability Maturity Model Levels 5
Team experience (low, average, high) 3
Size plateau of application (small, medium, large) 3
Application complexity (low, average, high) 3
Combinations of factors 5,568,750
Jones, Capers (2013). Evaluating ten software development methodologies, Namcook Analytics.

11. https://xkcd.com/927/

12. Agile methods Plan-driven methods Formal methods
Criticality low high extreme
Requirements change often do not change often Limited, can be modelled
Staffing experienced junior experienced
Team size small number of developers large number of developers
Culture responds to change demands order extreme quality
Modified from:
Boehm, B.; R. Turner (2004). Balancing Agility and Discipline: A Guide for the Perplexed. Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley. pp. 55–57.

13. So what’s best?
Agile methods (Scrum) Spiral methods
Team Software Process
(TSP)
Speed of delivery,
fewer developers
Lowest development effort
and cost
Highest quality,
lowest Total Cost of
Ownership (TCO)
After:
Jones, Capers (2013). Evaluating ten software development methodologies, Namcook Analytics.

14. –Ernest Hemingway
“How did you go
bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually,
then suddenly.”

15. Failed Software ProjectsFailureRate(%)
1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960
100
50
0
35
?

17. 3 challenges to
existing methodologies
Cloud computing
• Distributed
components
Smart contracts
• Social complexity
Deep learning
• Maintainability

19. Courtesy Cinergix Pty Ltd © 2017

20. Courtesy Bulletproof Pty Ltd © 2017

21. Smart Contracts

22. Smart Contracts

23. Smart Contracts

24. Deep Learning Networks

27. The
Question
Big

28. Failed Software ProjectsFailureRate(%)
1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960
100
50
0
35
?

29. David Hyland-Wood
david@hyland-wood.org
@prototypo
Controlling
Complexity
in software
development

30. Acknowledgements
Mismatched power plugs photo by Flickr user Simon Law, CC-BY-SA 2.0
Waterfall model diagram by Peter Kemp & Paul Smith - adapted from Paul Smith's work at Wikipedia, CC BY 3.0
Extreme Programming feedback loops diagram by DonWells, CC BY-SA 3.0
Factory icon by Tichovský Petr, public domain
XKCD comic #927 by Randall Munroe, CC-BY-SA 2.0
Hemingway photo by Pixabay, CC0
US Army nano satellite concept image by U.S. Army, U.S. Government Work
Clouds photo by Elaine with Grey Cats, CC BY-SA 2.0
Smart contract image by draglet GmbH , CC BY-SA 4.0
Neural networks image by Velko, pubic domain
Feed forward neural network diagram by Naghipourfar, CC BY-SA 4.0
“Puppy or bagel” image posted on Reddit by an deleted user on 08 Mar 2016.
Machine learning workflow image by Brylie Christopher Oxley, CC0