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Dr. Dan Patterson PMP, Acumen CEO    Simplifying Risk Analysis with                     Acumen Risk
Anadarko// Acumen                                                          CH2M Hill                                      ...
// Acumen Software  Summary  Acumen Fuse                       S1 //                   Build Schedule Basis               ...
// Why Perform Risk Analysis?  ! Scheduling          ◦    Science behind forecasting project completion          ◦    Does...
// Legacy Risk Tools  Shortcomings  ! Manual summary    schedule  ! Complex data loading  ! Abstract & highly    statistic...
// The Acumen Risk™ Approach  Risk Reengineered…  ! Graphical data loading  ! Uses native schedule  ! Meaningful context  ...
// Schedule Impact on Cost Risk       Cost Risk Distribution                                             Schedule Risk Dis...
// Project Risk Register  Tracking Risk Events  ! Create new or Import  ! Cost & Schedule Risks  ! Pre & Post Mitigated  !...
// Risk Exposure  Histogram                                                            P- Dates  ! P-Dates          ◦    “...
// Risk Drivers  Tornados                                                            Total                                ...
// Risk Comparison  Distribution Curves  ! Compare scenarios in    a single workbook:          ◦    Turn on or off risks  ...
Acumen Risk™ Demonstration
// Acumen Forecast Accuracy                              Top of bar: Sanctioned5 – May -12                   Target Comple...
// Additional Information  Integration  !     Primavera:                                                   Licensing:     ...
More information:White papers: www.projectacumen.comSoftware Trial: www.projectacumen.com/trialTwitter: @projectacumenEmai...
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Simplifiying cost and schedule risk analysis with acumen risk

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Schedule risk analysis doesn’t have to be complicated. In this webinar learn how Acumen Risk™ uses a more intuitive approach to evaluating risk to achieve truly integrated cost and schedule risk analysis.

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Simplifiying cost and schedule risk analysis with acumen risk

  1. 1. Dr. Dan Patterson PMP, Acumen CEO Simplifying Risk Analysis with Acumen Risk
  2. 2. Anadarko// Acumen CH2M Hill Chevron Proven Project Analytics ConocoPhillips Constellation Energy DCMA DTE Energy! Project Management Software Duke Energy ◦  Providing insight into project challenges Enbridge ◦  Improving planning accuracy & reliability Fluor General Dynamics! Core Concepts: Hess ◦  Project success requires a sound plan Hill International ◦  Forecast accuracy requires risk consideration Jacobs! Recognition: KBR Marathon ◦  Planning Innovation of the Year 2012 NASA ◦  Inc. 500 Fastest Growing Company Newmont Mining! Legacy Repsol ◦  25 years of thought-leadership SAIC Shaw ◦  Trusted by Fortune 500 & Industry Leaders Shell October 11, 2012 // 2 URS
  3. 3. // Acumen Software Summary Acumen Fuse S1 // Build Schedule Basis Schedule Basis Diagnostics ! Improved Schedule Quality S2 // Acumen Fuse®: Project Diagnostics Acumen 360 Critiqued Scenario Generation ! Acceleration/Deceleration S3 // Acumen Risk™: Risk Analysis & Register Risk-Adjusted Acumen Risk Risk Analysis S4 // Acumen 360™: Project Optimization ! Simplified Cost/Schedule Optimized S5 // Team Validation and Buy In Team ApprovedOctober 11, 2012 // 3
  4. 4. // Why Perform Risk Analysis? ! Scheduling ◦  Science behind forecasting project completion ◦  Doesn’t account for scope uncertainty, unknowns ! Risk Analysis ◦  Gain true insight into schedule achievability ◦  Pinpoints risk hotspots that will cause delay ◦  Structured approach to reducing risk exposureOctober 11, 2012 // 4
  5. 5. // Legacy Risk Tools Shortcomings ! Manual summary schedule ! Complex data loading ! Abstract & highly statistical ! Error-prone/misleading reporting Requires a statisticianOctober 11, 2012 // 5
  6. 6. // The Acumen Risk™ Approach Risk Reengineered… ! Graphical data loading ! Uses native schedule ! Meaningful context ! Very fast analysis ! Intuitive reporting ! Insightful metrics Designed for collaborative project risk workshopsOctober 11, 2012 // 6
  7. 7. // Schedule Impact on Cost Risk Cost Risk Distribution Schedule Risk Distribution P100 360d (120%) Deterministic: 300d$90K $100K $130K P0 280d (93%) Uncertainty Schedule Impact on Cost Risk Distribution $84K $90K $100K $130K $156K Uncertainty
  8. 8. // Project Risk Register Tracking Risk Events ! Create new or Import ! Cost & Schedule Risks ! Pre & Post Mitigated ! Custom Templates ◦  Auto-Calibrate matrix ◦  Absolute/relative impacts ! Map to Schedule ◦  Activity-based mappingOctober 11, 2012 // 8
  9. 9. // Risk Exposure Histogram P- Dates ! P-Dates ◦  “I’m 50% confident I will finish on…” Contingency ! Contingency ◦  “How much more/less time do I need to finish by…?” Deterministic ! Deterministic Confidence Level ◦  “How realistic is my planned finish date?”October 11, 2012 // 9
  10. 10. // Risk Drivers Tornados Total Contribution ! Risk Drivers: ◦  High-risk activities ◦  Most impactful events Uncertainty/Logic/ Risk Event Contribution ! Contribution Factor™ ◦  Uncertainty contribution ◦  Logic contribution ◦  Risk Event contribution Differentiate Between Risk EventsOctober 11, 2012 // 10
  11. 11. // Risk Comparison Distribution Curves ! Compare scenarios in a single workbook: ◦  Turn on or off risks Benefit of Mitigation ◦  Benefit of mitigation ◦  Uncertainty vs. Risk Events ◦  Schedule A vs. Schedule B ◦  Impact of schedule delay on cost riskOctober 11, 2012 // 11
  12. 12. Acumen Risk™ Demonstration
  13. 13. // Acumen Forecast Accuracy Top of bar: Sanctioned5 – May -12 Target Completion Date Vertical Line: Forecasted23–Dec-11 Date Range Diamond: Actual/Final6-Jun-11 Completion Date18-Nov-102-May-1014-Oct-0928-Mar-09 October 11, 2012 // 13
  14. 14. // Additional Information Integration ! Primavera: Licensing: ◦  P6 (XER, XML, Web Services/P6 R8) ! Stand alone / Named user ◦  P3 ◦  Risk Analysis ! Concurrent / Multi user ! Microsoft: ! Citrix based ◦  Project ◦  Project Server ◦  Excel Training ! Risk 101 & Acumen Risk ! Online and Private on-siteOctober 11, 2012 // 14
  15. 15. More information:White papers: www.projectacumen.comSoftware Trial: www.projectacumen.com/trialTwitter: @projectacumenEmail: info@projectacumen.com

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