2. Big problems
β Climate Changecost the US $100 Billion
in 2013
β Entering period un-managed risk- asset
values and to markets
β Every major scientific body on the planet
is in agreement the cause
3. Worst Case Scenarios
Potential outcomes include:
Desertification of the bread basket
City evacuations
Mass migrations
Cities flooding etc.
4. Risk management
β Highlights weakness in existing risk
models; extreme risk, marginal growth in
old forms
β If insurance catches up, will upend many
business models
β High risk suggests a rapid shift to a new
path
5. Need for speed
β 6 degree Fahrenheit shift by 2060 (World
Bank)
β Several analysis suggest to avoid worst
outcomes requires huge >70% emission
reduction in over next 10 years
6. Need for speed
β Degree of uncertainty: There exist 2-3
possibilities for immediate jeopardy, as in
6 degree Fahrenheit shift over a 5-10
year horizon?
β Even if <2% What benefits taking that
risk?
7. Scientific and Business
Consensus
β Every major scientific organization, in the
world, the World Bank, and the Pope,
President, are calling Climate Change a
real, immediate threat
β On the right, the remaining hold outs, a
self sufficiency movement will agree to
local energy production and jobs
8. Big problems: Market conditions
β American infrastructure is decaying, and
in need of upgrades
β Oil and Coal are volatile β with price
swings 50% in the past year, with carbon
regulation likely
β Will natural gas- methane be next?
9. Big problems: Market conditions
β Economy is quasi-stabilized; large
degree of uncertainty
β Recovery is low on middle class and
trade jobs
β Huge opportunity cost: $500 billion in
unnecessary energy spending, per year
10. What's the hold up?
β Banks donβt fund these deals. So they
are for people who can, and want to drop
a half year salary for future savings
β The pace of PACE financing, now a well
proven economic force, is still glacial
11. Where does the money come
from?
β It's already there. The US spends 1.2
trillion per year on energy
β Cutting that in half saves 600 billion per
year
β 15-year payout comes to 9 Trillion
12. Embrace the change
β Conversion to conservation and clean
energy will cost minimum $7 Trillion
β Requires upgrades to every structure in
the United States
β Climate emergency means it has to get
done- Rapidly.
β Aim for 5 years, miss and hit 7
13. Embrace the change
β Makes possible GDP growth rate
blistering 8-10%
β 4+ million middle class jobs, non
outsourceable
β Increases gov't revenues by $100s of
billions without raising taxes
14. Gov 1 : National Buildings
Standards Bill
β Compliance with simple energy efficiency
and local energy generation standards
β Energy upgrades for all American
buildings
β Economic boost in every state, as 100
million buildings need work
15. Gov 2 Lend Loss program
β Also issues $100 billion dollars lend loss
insurance covers of 1 Trillion in loans
β Actual loss rates are 5%- really, 0% as
any losses will get packaged into
property
β Payoff on insurance is 5 years; creates a
decent secondary insurance market
16. Govt 3- Training +Capacity
build
β 25$ Billion on training programs
β 500,000 paid trainings for low income
folks+ coal miners
β Builds capacity for training for a total of
2,000,000 trained in energy audits,
retrofits, and generation
17. Building owners:
β Quick approval on cheap renovation
money, upgrade to the new standard
β Regulation coming anyway
β Deal size is up to 40% appraisal value
18. Building owners:
β Building standard: Envelope R-20 and
windows R-8, min 35% local, emission
free energy
β Money used for : efficiency, cosmetic,
and local energy generation
19. Big Oil becomes Big Energy
β Big Oil becomes big Energy, as they are
1st financiers on gas--> energy stations
β Exploration dollars become alternative
generation plant dollars
β Oil is really too volatile anyway. Itβs
clear now, alternative energy is the way.