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THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA
DURING THE 2014 CRISIS IN UKRAINE
ANATOLIYGRUZD
@GRUZD
Carolinas ASIST Workshop on Social Media Analysis and Its Application in Research and Practice
October 19, 2015
Associate Professor, Ted Rogers School of Management
Director of the Social Media Lab
Ryerson University
Social Media Lab, Ryerson University (Toronto, Canada)
@gruzd 2
Social Media Support Social Activism and Political Engagement
#OccupyGezi Supporters in Victoria, BC
From this…
Photo credit: Anatoliy Gruzd
In the Social Media Lab,
we’re interesting in
studying how social
media ….
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Photo credit: Karl Schönswetter
Social Media Help to Organize Social Movements
… to this
#OccupyGezi: Gezi Parki Protest, Turkey (2013)
4
In the Social Media Lab,
we’re interesting in
studying how social
media ….
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Today’s focus:
2014 EuroMaidan Revolution | Revolution of Dignity
5
"2014-02-21 11-04 Euromaidan in Kiev" by Amakuha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia
@gruzd
Outline
• Background
• Review of Social Media Platforms
• VK (Vkontakte) Use
• Conclusions
6@gruzd
Today’s focus:
2014 EuroMaidan Revolution | Revolution of Dignity
7
"2014-02-21 11-04 Euromaidan in Kiev" by Amakuha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia
November 21, 2013 - Ukraine gov. suspended
the trade & association agreement with EU
@gruzd
February 18-19, 2014: Protests in Kyiv (capital) Turned Deadly
9
source: http://liveuamap.com
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
February 18-19, 2014: Protests in Kyiv Turned Deadly
10
"Barricade line separating interior troops and protesters. Clashes in Kyiv, Ukraine. Events of February 18, 2014-2" by Mstyslav Chernov/Unframe/http://www.unframe.com/ - Licensed under CC
BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
February 18-19, 2014: Protests in Kyiv Turned Deadly
11
"Euromaidan in Kiev 2014-02-19 12-06" by Amakuha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
February-March, 2014: Pro & Anti-Maidan Protests SpreadAcross
Ukraine
12
source: http://liveuamap.com
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
February-April 2014:Awave of Anti-Maidan protests in South-East
13@gruzd
Photo credit: Andriy Makukha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
March 2014: Annexation of Crimea by Russia
14
source: http://liveuamap.com
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
April 2014:Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) against pro-Russian Self-proclaimed
republics: Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) & Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR)
15
source: http://liveuamap.com
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Outline
• Background
• Review of Social Media Platforms
• VK (Vkontakte) Use
• Conclusions
16@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Review of Social Media Platforms:
Websites – still important, linking to social media accounts
http://euromaidansos.org/
17@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Review of Social Media Platforms: Blogs
http://fakecontrol.org/blog/2014/03/04/george-bush/
18@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Review of Social Media Platforms: Blogs
Example: CombatingMisinformation
http://www.stopfake.org/
Source: http://visual.ly/top-7-false-statements-russian-media-about-Ukraine
19@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Review of Social Media Platforms
Youtube & ustream.tv:Activists, News agencies, Gov.officials
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_cNDGU7k98 http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/44404145
20@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Future unrests: Twitter's Periscope?
Review of Social Media Platforms
Instagram: Photo Sharing during Rallies
21
http://www.the-everyday.net
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/18/ukraine-police-
storm-kiev-protest-camp-live-updates#start-of-comments
Review of Social Media Platforms
Twitter Widely Used To Disseminate Information about events in Ukraine
Information Diffusion on Twitter
22@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Review of Social Media Platforms
Wikipedia: Editors’ Debate about the Status of Crimea
23@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Review of Social Media Platforms
Facebook Groups & Pages:Activists
https://www.facebook.com/groups/223479324489867 https://www.facebook.com/EvromaidanSOS
24@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Review of Social Media Platforms
Vkontakte & Odnoklassniki.ru (Facebook alike)
25@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Summary: Social Media Use during the 2014 EuroMaidan
Revolution
• First “Social Media” Revolution in Ukraine
• 2004 “Orange Revolution” (Pre-social media)
• Internet penetration in Ukraine ~12% (Lysenko & Desouza, 2010)
• Facebook was founded in 2004, Youtube-2005, Twitter-2006, Instagram-2010
• Social media used by both Pro & Anti Maidan activists
• Pro-Western vs Pro-Russian groups
• Social media use by governments, elective officials and politicians
• Social media use for “locals” vs. for Westerners (in English)
• Use of multiple social media platforms
• Prior social media “revolutions” primarily focused on a single platform: Facebook revolution in Tunisia
(2010/2011); Twitter revolution in Iran (2009/2010)
• Content is often duplicated across multiple platforms
26@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Outline
• Background
• Review of Social Media Platforms
• VK (Vkontakte) Use
• Conclusions
27@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Gruzd, A. & Tsyganova, K. (2014). Politically Polarized Online Groups and
their Social Structures formed around the 2013-2014 crisis in Ukraine.
Internet, Politics, Policy 2014: Crowdsourcing for Politics and Policy. September
25–26, 2014, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
This part is based on our recent papers on VK groups
Gruzd, A. & Tsyganova, K. (2015). Information Wars and Online Activism
During the 2013/2014 Crisis in Ukraine: Examining the Social Structures of
Pro- and Anti-Maidan Groups. Policy & Internet 7(2). DOI: 10.1002/poi3.91
28@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
About Vkontakte – #1 Social Networking Website in Ukraine
29
source: http://en.wikipedia.org
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Example: VK Group User Interface – Posts, Likes, Comments…
30@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Example: VK Group User Interface – Discussion board, Links & Media Files…
31@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Pro-Maidan (pro-Western) &Anti-Maidan (pro-Russian) Groups on VK
~Over 3,500 groups with membership from 100K+ to under 10 members
32
Anti-Maidan groupPro-Maidan group
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Our Research Focus on Online Social Networks
http://www.visualcomplexity.com/vc
Friends’ networks (Facebook,
Twitter, Google+, etc…)
Forum networks
Blog networks
Networks of like-minded people
(YouTube, Flickr, etc…)
@gruzd 332014 EuroMaidan Revolution
1) Represent data as a network
Nodes = People
Edges /Ties = Relations (ex. Who is a friend with whom,
Who replies to whom, etc.)
•2) Apply Social Network Analysis (SNA)
We Study Online Groups from a Network Perspective
@gruzd 342014 EuroMaidan Revolution
• Reduce the large quantity of data into a
more concise representation
• Makes it easier to understand what is
going on in a group
Advantages of Using Social Network Analysis
Once the network is discovered,
we can find out:
• How do people interact with each other,
• Who are the most/least active members of a group,
• Who is influential in a group,
• Who is susceptible to being influenced, etc…
@gruzd 352014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them?
36
Anti-Maidan groupPro-Maidan group
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them?
37
Anti-Maidan groupPro-Maidan group
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Study Objectives
• Establish baseline measures to interpret emerging social structures of
online activist groups.
• In particular, we ask if there are any observable structural differences or
similarities in social networks formed by VK groups in the two opposing
camps?
• If there are differences, we would like to know whether network properties
alone might be able to suggest a group’s political ideology or other
characteristics.
38@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Data Collection
39
PRO1 PRO2 ANTI1 ANTI2
Num. of Nodes 141,542 96,402 60,506 69,029
Num. of Connections 338,344 221,452 280,678 192,273
• Used VK Public API
• Communities – information about groups and group members
• Wall – posts and comments
• Likes – “likes” that members and visitors leave on posts
• Friends – group members’ friendship relations
• Data collection: 2 most popular (public!) Pro-Maidan and Anti-Maidan groups
• Period: February 18 – May 25, 2015
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Method
40
• Social Network Analysis
• SNA measures (e.g., centrality, density, network diameter)
• Exponential Random Graph Modeling (ERGM) – test association tendencies
• Walktrap Community Detection algorithm - identify and describe highly connected
subgroups
• Network Visualization using LGL (Large Graph Layout)
• Manual Content Analysis of
• Group pages and posts
• Sample of public user profiles
• Research software
• Package R (libraries statnet and igraph)
• Tableau for visual analytics
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #1
Friends’Network (>140k members)
• Formed in early April 2014 to support
Maidan and Antiterrorist Operation
(ATO)
Yellow – users from Ukraine; Red – from Russia; Green – other countries;
The layout algorithm is LGL (Large Graph Layout). Isolated nodes are not visible.
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
1.0
1.6
10.2
14.8
69.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
41@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Subgroup 3
Subgroup 42
VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #1
“Walktrap” Community Detection
42@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Subgroup 3
Subgroup 42
Subgroup 4
Most politically
active
VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #1
“Walktrap” Community Detection
43
Crimean Tatars
Marketing,
Spam
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #2
Friends’Network (>96k members)
Subgroup 8Subgroup 96
44@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #2
Friends’Network (>96k members)
Subgroups 8
Marketing &
spam
Subgroup 96
Marketing & spam
45@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #2
Friends’Network
Subgroup 8
Subgroup 96
Subgroup 12
Subgroup 3
46@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Subgroup 6
Subgroup 1
VK Group Example –Anti Maidan #1
“Walktrap” Community Detection
47@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Subgroup 6
Politically active
users
Subgroup 1:
mixed
“marketing”,
politically
active
VK Group Example –Anti Maidan #1
“Walktrap” Community Detection
48@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Subgroup 6
Subgroup 1
64% from
Donetsk
VK Group Example –Anti Maidan #1
“Walktrap” Community Detection
49@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
VK Group Example –Anti-Maidan #2
Friends’Network (69K members)
One densely connected cluster - suggesting a stronger
agreement among group members from both Ukraine
and Russia
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
1.1
11.2
34.4
50.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
• In existence since 2011, focused on
Anti-American & Pro-Russia discussions.
• Since the events on Maidan in early
2014, shifted its focus to support Anti-
Maidan activism & the two self-
proclaimed republics – Donetsk and
Lugansk People's Republics.
50@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
VK Group Example –Anti-Maidan #2
Friends’Network (69K members)
51@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
VK Group Example –Anti-Maidan #2
Friends’Network (69K members)
Politically active
accounts
Politically active
52@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Conclusions - Comparing Groups across Political Divide
PRO1 PRO2 ANTI1 ANTI2
Number of Nodes 141,542 96,402 60,506 69,029
Number of Connections 338,344 221,452 280,678 192,273
Network Diameter 19 19 16 21
Clustering Coefficient 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.13
Degree Centralization 0.0048 0.0073 0.0815 0.0260
Modularity Index 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.24
%Users from Ukraine 69 73 57 34
%Users from Russia 15 10 30 50
53@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Conclusions - Geography Matters!
• Although all four groups included
people from both Ukraine and
Russia, the ERGM models
confirmed the tendency of group
members to friend others in the
same country.
• Furthermore, we also observed
homophily among users from
the same city for the top-10 cities
with the most number of VK users
in all groups
54
Online social networks likely represent local and potentially
pre-existing social networks
"Euromaidan Protests" by Lvivske, NickK - Sources for particular cities are given at w:uk:Євромайдан
у регіонах України. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Conclusions - Comparing Groups across Political Divide
PRO1 PRO2 ANTI1 ANTI2
Number of Nodes 141,542 96,402 60,506 69,029
Number of Connections 338,344 221,452 280,678 192,273
Network Diameter 19 19 16 21
Clustering Coefficient 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.13
Degree Centralization 0.0048 0.0073 0.0815 0.0260
Modularity Index 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.24
%Users from Ukraine 69 73 57 34
%Users from Russia 15 10 30 50
55@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Conclusions - Position of Spam & Marketing Accounts
• In the PRO1 and PRO2 groups, spam & marketing
accounts appeared to be organized in a densely
connected subgroup with high degree centrality
values and low user engagement
• It is important to differentiate spam & marketing
accounts from group supporters who might also
be located in smaller, somewhat isolated subgroups
because of their minority status in the group (e.g.,
Crimean Tatars in PRO1)
• Interestingly, this pattern was not observed in the
ANTI1 or ANTI2 groups.
56@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them?
57
Pro-Maidan Groups Anti-Maidan Groups
Study Objectives (recap):
• Establish baseline measures to interpret
emerging social structures of online
activist groups.
• In particular, we ask if there are any
observable structural differences or
similarities in social networks formed by
VK groups in the two opposing camps?
• If there are differences, we would like to
know whether network properties alone
might be able to suggest a group’s
political ideology or other characteristics.
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them?
58
Pro-Maidan Groups Anti-Maidan Groups
Conclusions:
• Group-level indicators, such as degree
centralization, modularity index and
average engagement level, could help to
classify and describe groups based on
their network properties and structures.
• BUT: SNA alone could not explain the
structural differences between the four
networks we examined.
• SOLUTION: a combination of SNA,
visualization and community detection
algorithm, coupled with a manual content
analysis of a sample of group messages
and user profiles is an effective approach
to study the underlying social structures of
online activist groups.
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Photo credit: Karl Schönswetter
#OccupyGezi: Gezi Parki Protest, Turkey (2013)
59
#OccupyGezi Supporters in Victoria, BC
?
Study Implications:
Can we predict successful groups?
Can we predict group’s longevity?
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Future Work
• Explore the roles of isolates in the
group
–lurkers, spammers, trolls, or fake
accounts?
60
?
• Investigate how people from
countries other than Ukraine
and Russia participated in these
groups
@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
Acknowledgments
• We thank Emad Khazraee, Dmitri Tsyganov, Andrea Kampen,
Philip Mai, and Elizabeth Dubois for their help in preparing this
article.
61@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA
DURING THE 2014 CRISIS IN UKRAINE
ANATOLIYGRUZD
@GRUZD
Carolinas ASIST Workshop on Social Media Analysis and Its Application in Research and Practice
October 19, 2015
Associate Professor, Ted Rogers School of Management
Director of the Social Media Lab
Ryerson University

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The Use of Social Media during the 2014 Crisis In Ukraine

  • 1. THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA DURING THE 2014 CRISIS IN UKRAINE ANATOLIYGRUZD @GRUZD Carolinas ASIST Workshop on Social Media Analysis and Its Application in Research and Practice October 19, 2015 Associate Professor, Ted Rogers School of Management Director of the Social Media Lab Ryerson University
  • 2. Social Media Lab, Ryerson University (Toronto, Canada) @gruzd 2
  • 3. Social Media Support Social Activism and Political Engagement #OccupyGezi Supporters in Victoria, BC From this… Photo credit: Anatoliy Gruzd In the Social Media Lab, we’re interesting in studying how social media …. @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 4. Photo credit: Karl Schönswetter Social Media Help to Organize Social Movements … to this #OccupyGezi: Gezi Parki Protest, Turkey (2013) 4 In the Social Media Lab, we’re interesting in studying how social media …. @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 5. Today’s focus: 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution | Revolution of Dignity 5 "2014-02-21 11-04 Euromaidan in Kiev" by Amakuha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia @gruzd
  • 6. Outline • Background • Review of Social Media Platforms • VK (Vkontakte) Use • Conclusions 6@gruzd
  • 7. Today’s focus: 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution | Revolution of Dignity 7 "2014-02-21 11-04 Euromaidan in Kiev" by Amakuha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia November 21, 2013 - Ukraine gov. suspended the trade & association agreement with EU @gruzd
  • 8. February 18-19, 2014: Protests in Kyiv (capital) Turned Deadly 9 source: http://liveuamap.com RUSSIA UKRAINE @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 9. February 18-19, 2014: Protests in Kyiv Turned Deadly 10 "Barricade line separating interior troops and protesters. Clashes in Kyiv, Ukraine. Events of February 18, 2014-2" by Mstyslav Chernov/Unframe/http://www.unframe.com/ - Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 10. February 18-19, 2014: Protests in Kyiv Turned Deadly 11 "Euromaidan in Kiev 2014-02-19 12-06" by Amakuha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 11. February-March, 2014: Pro & Anti-Maidan Protests SpreadAcross Ukraine 12 source: http://liveuamap.com @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 12. February-April 2014:Awave of Anti-Maidan protests in South-East 13@gruzd Photo credit: Andriy Makukha. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 13. March 2014: Annexation of Crimea by Russia 14 source: http://liveuamap.com @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 14. April 2014:Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) against pro-Russian Self-proclaimed republics: Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) & Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) 15 source: http://liveuamap.com @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 15. Outline • Background • Review of Social Media Platforms • VK (Vkontakte) Use • Conclusions 16@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 16. Review of Social Media Platforms: Websites – still important, linking to social media accounts http://euromaidansos.org/ 17@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 17. Review of Social Media Platforms: Blogs http://fakecontrol.org/blog/2014/03/04/george-bush/ 18@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 18. Review of Social Media Platforms: Blogs Example: CombatingMisinformation http://www.stopfake.org/ Source: http://visual.ly/top-7-false-statements-russian-media-about-Ukraine 19@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 19. Review of Social Media Platforms Youtube & ustream.tv:Activists, News agencies, Gov.officials https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_cNDGU7k98 http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/44404145 20@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution Future unrests: Twitter's Periscope?
  • 20. Review of Social Media Platforms Instagram: Photo Sharing during Rallies 21 http://www.the-everyday.net @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 21. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/18/ukraine-police- storm-kiev-protest-camp-live-updates#start-of-comments Review of Social Media Platforms Twitter Widely Used To Disseminate Information about events in Ukraine Information Diffusion on Twitter 22@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 22. Review of Social Media Platforms Wikipedia: Editors’ Debate about the Status of Crimea 23@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 23. Review of Social Media Platforms Facebook Groups & Pages:Activists https://www.facebook.com/groups/223479324489867 https://www.facebook.com/EvromaidanSOS 24@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 24. Review of Social Media Platforms Vkontakte & Odnoklassniki.ru (Facebook alike) 25@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 25. Summary: Social Media Use during the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution • First “Social Media” Revolution in Ukraine • 2004 “Orange Revolution” (Pre-social media) • Internet penetration in Ukraine ~12% (Lysenko & Desouza, 2010) • Facebook was founded in 2004, Youtube-2005, Twitter-2006, Instagram-2010 • Social media used by both Pro & Anti Maidan activists • Pro-Western vs Pro-Russian groups • Social media use by governments, elective officials and politicians • Social media use for “locals” vs. for Westerners (in English) • Use of multiple social media platforms • Prior social media “revolutions” primarily focused on a single platform: Facebook revolution in Tunisia (2010/2011); Twitter revolution in Iran (2009/2010) • Content is often duplicated across multiple platforms 26@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 26. Outline • Background • Review of Social Media Platforms • VK (Vkontakte) Use • Conclusions 27@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 27. Gruzd, A. & Tsyganova, K. (2014). Politically Polarized Online Groups and their Social Structures formed around the 2013-2014 crisis in Ukraine. Internet, Politics, Policy 2014: Crowdsourcing for Politics and Policy. September 25–26, 2014, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. This part is based on our recent papers on VK groups Gruzd, A. & Tsyganova, K. (2015). Information Wars and Online Activism During the 2013/2014 Crisis in Ukraine: Examining the Social Structures of Pro- and Anti-Maidan Groups. Policy & Internet 7(2). DOI: 10.1002/poi3.91 28@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 28. About Vkontakte – #1 Social Networking Website in Ukraine 29 source: http://en.wikipedia.org @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 29. Example: VK Group User Interface – Posts, Likes, Comments… 30@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 30. Example: VK Group User Interface – Discussion board, Links & Media Files… 31@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 31. Pro-Maidan (pro-Western) &Anti-Maidan (pro-Russian) Groups on VK ~Over 3,500 groups with membership from 100K+ to under 10 members 32 Anti-Maidan groupPro-Maidan group @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 32. Our Research Focus on Online Social Networks http://www.visualcomplexity.com/vc Friends’ networks (Facebook, Twitter, Google+, etc…) Forum networks Blog networks Networks of like-minded people (YouTube, Flickr, etc…) @gruzd 332014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 33. 1) Represent data as a network Nodes = People Edges /Ties = Relations (ex. Who is a friend with whom, Who replies to whom, etc.) •2) Apply Social Network Analysis (SNA) We Study Online Groups from a Network Perspective @gruzd 342014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 34. • Reduce the large quantity of data into a more concise representation • Makes it easier to understand what is going on in a group Advantages of Using Social Network Analysis Once the network is discovered, we can find out: • How do people interact with each other, • Who are the most/least active members of a group, • Who is influential in a group, • Who is susceptible to being influenced, etc… @gruzd 352014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 35. Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them? 36 Anti-Maidan groupPro-Maidan group @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 36. Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them? 37 Anti-Maidan groupPro-Maidan group @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 37. Study Objectives • Establish baseline measures to interpret emerging social structures of online activist groups. • In particular, we ask if there are any observable structural differences or similarities in social networks formed by VK groups in the two opposing camps? • If there are differences, we would like to know whether network properties alone might be able to suggest a group’s political ideology or other characteristics. 38@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 38. Data Collection 39 PRO1 PRO2 ANTI1 ANTI2 Num. of Nodes 141,542 96,402 60,506 69,029 Num. of Connections 338,344 221,452 280,678 192,273 • Used VK Public API • Communities – information about groups and group members • Wall – posts and comments • Likes – “likes” that members and visitors leave on posts • Friends – group members’ friendship relations • Data collection: 2 most popular (public!) Pro-Maidan and Anti-Maidan groups • Period: February 18 – May 25, 2015 @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 39. Method 40 • Social Network Analysis • SNA measures (e.g., centrality, density, network diameter) • Exponential Random Graph Modeling (ERGM) – test association tendencies • Walktrap Community Detection algorithm - identify and describe highly connected subgroups • Network Visualization using LGL (Large Graph Layout) • Manual Content Analysis of • Group pages and posts • Sample of public user profiles • Research software • Package R (libraries statnet and igraph) • Tableau for visual analytics @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 40. VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #1 Friends’Network (>140k members) • Formed in early April 2014 to support Maidan and Antiterrorist Operation (ATO) Yellow – users from Ukraine; Red – from Russia; Green – other countries; The layout algorithm is LGL (Large Graph Layout). Isolated nodes are not visible. 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 10.2 14.8 69.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 41@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 41. Subgroup 3 Subgroup 42 VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #1 “Walktrap” Community Detection 42@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 42. Subgroup 3 Subgroup 42 Subgroup 4 Most politically active VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #1 “Walktrap” Community Detection 43 Crimean Tatars Marketing, Spam @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 43. VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #2 Friends’Network (>96k members) Subgroup 8Subgroup 96 44@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 44. VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #2 Friends’Network (>96k members) Subgroups 8 Marketing & spam Subgroup 96 Marketing & spam 45@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 45. VK Group Example – Pro Maidan #2 Friends’Network Subgroup 8 Subgroup 96 Subgroup 12 Subgroup 3 46@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 46. Subgroup 6 Subgroup 1 VK Group Example –Anti Maidan #1 “Walktrap” Community Detection 47@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 47. Subgroup 6 Politically active users Subgroup 1: mixed “marketing”, politically active VK Group Example –Anti Maidan #1 “Walktrap” Community Detection 48@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 48. Subgroup 6 Subgroup 1 64% from Donetsk VK Group Example –Anti Maidan #1 “Walktrap” Community Detection 49@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 49. VK Group Example –Anti-Maidan #2 Friends’Network (69K members) One densely connected cluster - suggesting a stronger agreement among group members from both Ukraine and Russia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 11.2 34.4 50.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 • In existence since 2011, focused on Anti-American & Pro-Russia discussions. • Since the events on Maidan in early 2014, shifted its focus to support Anti- Maidan activism & the two self- proclaimed republics – Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. 50@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 50. VK Group Example –Anti-Maidan #2 Friends’Network (69K members) 51@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 51. VK Group Example –Anti-Maidan #2 Friends’Network (69K members) Politically active accounts Politically active 52@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 52. Conclusions - Comparing Groups across Political Divide PRO1 PRO2 ANTI1 ANTI2 Number of Nodes 141,542 96,402 60,506 69,029 Number of Connections 338,344 221,452 280,678 192,273 Network Diameter 19 19 16 21 Clustering Coefficient 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.13 Degree Centralization 0.0048 0.0073 0.0815 0.0260 Modularity Index 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.24 %Users from Ukraine 69 73 57 34 %Users from Russia 15 10 30 50 53@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 53. Conclusions - Geography Matters! • Although all four groups included people from both Ukraine and Russia, the ERGM models confirmed the tendency of group members to friend others in the same country. • Furthermore, we also observed homophily among users from the same city for the top-10 cities with the most number of VK users in all groups 54 Online social networks likely represent local and potentially pre-existing social networks "Euromaidan Protests" by Lvivske, NickK - Sources for particular cities are given at w:uk:Євромайдан у регіонах України. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 54. Conclusions - Comparing Groups across Political Divide PRO1 PRO2 ANTI1 ANTI2 Number of Nodes 141,542 96,402 60,506 69,029 Number of Connections 338,344 221,452 280,678 192,273 Network Diameter 19 19 16 21 Clustering Coefficient 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.13 Degree Centralization 0.0048 0.0073 0.0815 0.0260 Modularity Index 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.24 %Users from Ukraine 69 73 57 34 %Users from Russia 15 10 30 50 55@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 55. Conclusions - Position of Spam & Marketing Accounts • In the PRO1 and PRO2 groups, spam & marketing accounts appeared to be organized in a densely connected subgroup with high degree centrality values and low user engagement • It is important to differentiate spam & marketing accounts from group supporters who might also be located in smaller, somewhat isolated subgroups because of their minority status in the group (e.g., Crimean Tatars in PRO1) • Interestingly, this pattern was not observed in the ANTI1 or ANTI2 groups. 56@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 56. Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them? 57 Pro-Maidan Groups Anti-Maidan Groups Study Objectives (recap): • Establish baseline measures to interpret emerging social structures of online activist groups. • In particular, we ask if there are any observable structural differences or similarities in social networks formed by VK groups in the two opposing camps? • If there are differences, we would like to know whether network properties alone might be able to suggest a group’s political ideology or other characteristics. @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 57. Different Friends’ Networks: What can we learn from them? 58 Pro-Maidan Groups Anti-Maidan Groups Conclusions: • Group-level indicators, such as degree centralization, modularity index and average engagement level, could help to classify and describe groups based on their network properties and structures. • BUT: SNA alone could not explain the structural differences between the four networks we examined. • SOLUTION: a combination of SNA, visualization and community detection algorithm, coupled with a manual content analysis of a sample of group messages and user profiles is an effective approach to study the underlying social structures of online activist groups. @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 58. Photo credit: Karl Schönswetter #OccupyGezi: Gezi Parki Protest, Turkey (2013) 59 #OccupyGezi Supporters in Victoria, BC ? Study Implications: Can we predict successful groups? Can we predict group’s longevity? @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 59. Future Work • Explore the roles of isolates in the group –lurkers, spammers, trolls, or fake accounts? 60 ? • Investigate how people from countries other than Ukraine and Russia participated in these groups @gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 60. Acknowledgments • We thank Emad Khazraee, Dmitri Tsyganov, Andrea Kampen, Philip Mai, and Elizabeth Dubois for their help in preparing this article. 61@gruzd 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution
  • 61. THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA DURING THE 2014 CRISIS IN UKRAINE ANATOLIYGRUZD @GRUZD Carolinas ASIST Workshop on Social Media Analysis and Its Application in Research and Practice October 19, 2015 Associate Professor, Ted Rogers School of Management Director of the Social Media Lab Ryerson University