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The Energy Report

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The Energy Report

  2. 2. WWFWWF is one of the world’s largest and most experiencedindependent conservation organizations, with over 5 millionsupporters and a global Network active in more than 100countries.WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the planet’snatural environment and to build a future in which humanslive in harmony with nature, by conserving the world’s bio-logical diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable naturalresources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction ofpollution and wasteful consumption.ECOFYSEstablished in 1984 with the mission of achieving asustainable energy supply for everyone, Ecofys has becomea leader in energy saving, sustainable energy solutions andclimate policies. The unique synergy between our fieldsof competence is the key to this success. We create smart,effective, practical and sustainable solutions for and with ourclients.OMAThe Office for Metropolitan Architecture (OMA) is aleading international partnership practicing contemporaryarchitecture, urbanism, and cultural analysis. Thecounterpart to OMA’s architectural practice is the company’sresearch-based think tank, AMO. While OMA remainsdedicated to the realization of buildings and masterplans, AMO operates in areas beyond the boundaries ofarchitecture and urbanism such as media, politics, sociology,technology, energy, fashion, publishing and graphic design.WWF InternationalAvenue du Mont-Blanc1196 GlandSwitzerlandwww.panda.orgEcofysP.O. Box 84083503 RK UtrechtThe Netherlandswww.ecofys.comOMAHeer Bokelweg 1493032 AD RotterdamThe Netherlandswww.oma.euThis report was made possible by thegenerous support of ENECO.ISBN 978-2-940443-26-0Front cover photo: © Wild Wonders of Europe / Inaki Relanzon / WWF
  3. 3. CONTRIBUTORSEditor in Chief: Stephan SingerTechnical Editor: Jean-Philippe DenruyterPrincipal Writer Part 1: Barney JeffriesEditorial Team Part 1: Owen Gibbons, Ellen Hendrix, MartinHiller, Richard McLellan, Donald PolsWith special thanks for review and contributions from:Keith Allott, Jason Anderson, Bryn Baker, Jessica Battle,Esther Blom, Kellie Caught, Kirsty Clough, Keya Chatterjee,Thomas Duveau, Wendy Elliott, Magnus Emfel, Lynn Englum,Mariangiola Fabbri, Ian Gray, Bart Geneen, Inna Gritsevich,Johan van de Gronden, May Guerraoui, Piers Hart, JoergHartmann, Patrick Hofstetter, Richard Holland, Yanli Hou,Nora Ibrahim, Andrea Kaszewski, Sampsa Kiianmaa, AlexeyKokorin, Li Lifeng, Pete Lockley, Paul Maassen, Yosuke Masako,David McLaughlin, László Máthé, Elisabeth McLellan, Martinvon Mirbach, Kevin Ogorzalek, Stuart Orr, Mireille Perrin,Duncan Pollard, Voahirana Randriambola, Georg Rast, PeterRoberntz, Rafael Senga, Shirish Sinha, Gerald Steindlegger, RodTaylor, Ivan Valencia, Arianna Vitali, Heikki Willstedt, Mattiasde Woul, Richard Worthington, Naoyuki YamagishiStefan HenningsonPartner organizationsEcofys (Part 2)Principal Writers: Yvonne Deng, Stijn Cornelissen, SebastianKlausPrincipal Reviewers: Kees van der Leun, Bart Wesselink,Kornelis Blok(See complete list of contributing authors, reviewers andadvising experts on page 91 Part 2.)The OMA-AMO team was led by PartnerReinier de Graaf and Associate Laura BairdTeam: Tanner Merkeley, Federico D’AmicoVilhelm Christensen, Amelia McPhee, Tim Cheung,Dicle Uzunyayla WWF The Energy Report Page 3
  4. 4. 100%RENEW-ABLEENERGYWWF The Energy Report Page 4
  5. 5. © Fritz Pölking / WWFCONTENTS10 Recommendations for a100% Renewable Energy Future 8PART 1 Introduction 11A renewable energy future: why we need it 13Energy facts we have to face 13100% possible 23The Ecofys scenario in a nutshell 24The energy mix 29The challenges ahead 43• Energy conservation 44• Electrification 51• Equity 56• Land and sea use 60• Lifestyle 66• Finance 72• Innovation 78• The future is in your hands 84PART 2 The Ecofys energy scenario 87Executive summary 92Introduction 103Approach 107Demand 115Supply – Renewable energy (excl. bioenergy) 139Supply – Sustainable bioenergy 157Investments and savings 192Policy considerations 217Conclusions 229APPENDICES 231REFERENCES 242GLOSSARY 252 WWF The Energy Report Page 5
  6. 6. Map 1: A new perspective onthe world - looking towards2050. Global GIS Database:Complete GlobaL Set, 2002© AMOWWF The Energy Report Page 6
  7. 7. “By 2050, we could get all the energy weneed from renewable sources. This reportshows that such a transition is not onlypossible but also cost-effective, providingenergy that is affordable for all andproducing it in ways that can be sustainedby the global economy and the planet.The transition will present significantchallenges, but I hope this report willinspire governments and business to cometo grips with those challenges and, at thesame time, to move boldly to bring therenewable economy into reality. There isnothing more important to our ability tocreate a sustainable future.”James P. LeapeDirector GeneralWWF International WWF The Energy Report Page 7
  8. 8. 10 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE 1.CLEAN ENERGY: Promote only the most efficient products.Develop existing and new renewable energy sources to provideenough clean energy for all by 2050. 2. GRIDS: Share and exchange clean energy through grids and trade, making the best use of sustainable energy resources in different areas. 3. ACCESS: End energy poverty: provide clean electricity and promote sustainable practices, such as efficient cook stoves, to everyone in developing countries. 4. MONEY: Invest in renewable, clean energy and energy-efficient products and buildings. 5. FOOD: Stop food waste. Choose food that is sourced in an efficient and sustainable way to free up land for nature, sustainable forestry and biofuel production. Everyone has an equal right to healthy levels of protein in their diet – for this to happen, wealthier people need to eat less meat. WWF The Energy Report Page 8
  9. 9. © Martin Harvey / WWF-Canon RECOMMENDATIONS PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT 6. MATERIALS: Reduce, re-use, recycle – to minimize waste and save energy. Develop durable 7. materials. And avoid things we don’t need. TRANSPORT: Provide incentives to encourage greater use of public transport, and to reduce the distances people and goods travel. Promote electrification wherever possible, and support research into hydrogen and other alternative fuels for shipping and aviation. 8. TECHNOLOGY: Develop national, bilateral and multilateral action plans to promote research and development in energy efficiency and renewable energy. 9. SUSTAINABILITY: Develop and enforce strict sustainability criteria that ensure renewable energy is compatible with environmental and development goals. 10.AGREEMENTS: Support ambitious climate and energy agreements toprovide global guidance and promote global cooperation on renewable energyand efficiency efforts. WWF The Energy Report Page 9
  11. 11. © NASA INTRODUCTION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT 500 400 Final Energy (EJ/a) 300 200 100 0 2000 Figure 1 Evolution of energy supply in the Energy Scenario, showing the key developments. Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010. 100 PER CENT RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 WWF has a vision of a world that is The Ecofys scenario raises a The world needs to powered by 100 per cent renewable energy number of significant issues and seriously consider sources by the middle of this century. challenges. The Energy Report what will be required Unless we make this transition, the investigates the most critically to transition to a world is most unlikely to avoid predicted important political, economic, sustainable energy escalating impacts of climate change. environmental and social choices future, and to find and challenges – and encourages solutions to the But is it possible to achieve 100 per cent their further debate. dilemmas raised in renewable energy supplies for everyone this report. Answering on the planet by 2050? WWF called How are we going to provide for these challenges - the upon the expertise of respected energy all of the world’s future needs, solutions to the energy consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer on energy, food, fibre, water and needs of current and to this question. In response, Ecofys has others, without running into future generations produced a bold and ambitious scenario - such huge issues as: conflicting – is one of the most which demonstrates that it is technically demands on land/water important, challenging possible to achieve almost 100 per cent availability and use; rising, and and urgent political renewable energy sources within the next in some cases, unsustainable tasks ahead. four decades. The ambitious outcomes consumption of commodities; of this scenario, along with all of the nuclear waste; and regionally assumptions, opportunities, detailed data appropriate and adequate and sources, are presented as Part 2 of this energy mixes? report. WWF The Energy Report Page 11
  13. 13. RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT A RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE: WHY WE NEED IT© Cat Holloway / WWF-Canon Switching to renewable At the same time, more energy isn’t just the than 2.7 billion people are dependent on best choice. It’s our traditional bioenergy only option. (mainly from wood, crop residues and The way we produce and use animal dung) as their energy today is not sustainable. main source of cooking Our main fossil fuel sources – oil, and heating fuel2 . coal and gas – are finite natural This is often harvested resources, and we are depleting unsustainably, them at a rapid rate. Furthermore causing soil erosion they are the main contributors to and increasing the climate change, and the race to risk of flooding, as the last ‘cheap’ fossil resources well as threatening evokes disasters for the natural biodiversity and adding environment as seen recently to greenhouse gas in the case of the BP oil spill emissions. Traditional in the Gulf of Mexico. In the stoves are also a developing world, regional and significant health local desertification is caused by problem: the World depletion of fuelwood and other Health Organization biomass sources that are often (WHO) estimates that used very inefficiently causing 2.5 million women substantive in-door pollution and young children die and millions of deaths annually. prematurely each year A fully sustainable renewable from inhaling their power supply is the only way fumes3. With many we can secure energy for all and developing societies avoid environmental catastrophe. becoming increasingly urban, air quality in cities will decline ENERGY FACTS WE further. HAVE TO FACE Finite and increasingly expensive fossil fuels are not the answer for 1.4 billion people have developing countries. no access to reliable But renewable energy sources offer the electricity1. potential to transform the quality of life and While most of us take energy for improve the economic granted as a basic right, a fifth of prospects of billions. the world’s population still has no access to reliable electricity – drastically reducing their chances 1. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, Paris of getting an education and 2. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010, Paris. earning a living. As energy prices 3. http://www.iaea.org/ Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/ increase, the world’s poor will Bull442/44204002429.pdf continue to be excluded. WWF The Energy Report Page 13
  14. 14. “IF EVERYONE CONSUMED AS MUCH ENERGY AS THE AVERAGE SINGAPOREAN AND U.S. RESIDENT, THE WORLD’S OIL RESERVES WOULD BE DEPLETED IN 9 YEARS”*Figure 2: World oil production by typehttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf OIL AND GAS ARE RUNNING OUT Supplies of cheap, conventional oil and gas Energy companies are Processing and using are declining while our energy demands increasingly looking to fill the unconventional fossil continue to increase. It is clear that our gap with unconventional sources sources produces reliance on fossil fuels cannot continue of oil and gas, such as shale gas, large quantities of indefinitely. With the world’s population oil from deep water platforms greenhouse gasses and projected to increase to over nine billion like BP’s Deepwater Horizon, chemical pollution, over the next 40 years, “business-as-usual” or the Canadian tar sands. But and puts unsustainable is not an option. these come at an unprecedented demands on our According to the International Energy cost – and not just in economic freshwater resources, Agency (IEA)4 , production from known oil terms. Many reserves are located with severe impacts and gas reserves will fall by around 40-60 in some of the world’s most on biodiversity and per cent by 2030. Yet the developed world’s pristine places – such as tropical ecosystem services. thirst for energy is unabated, while demand rainforests and the Arctic – that is rocketing in emerging economies, such are vital for biodiversity and the 4. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2009, Paris. as China, India and Brazil. If everyone ecosystem services that we all 5. Per capita oil consumption in the U.S. and Canada is about 3 tons annually, in the world used oil at the same rate as depend on, from freshwater to a in Saudi Arabia about 5 tons and in the average Saudi, Singaporean or U.S. healthy atmosphere. Extracting Singapore 10 tons. Proven oil reserves are estimated at about 205 billion tons resident, the world’s proven oil reserves them is difficult and dangerous, in 2010 (BP, Statistical Review, 2010) would be used up in less than 10 years5. *Proven oil reserves are estimated 1,349 Competition for fossil fuel resources is and costly to businesses, billion barrels. Oil consumption in the U. S. 18.86 million barrels per day. a source of international tension, and communities and economies World population is 6.9 billion. potentially conflict. when things go wrong.WWF The Energy Report Page 14
  15. 15. OIL AND GAS ARE RUNNING REPORT PART 1: THE ENERGY OUT FOSSIL FUEL SOURCINGMap 2: Oil Claims in Africa : P. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: Complete GlobalSet, 2002 © AMO WWF The Energy Report Page 15
  16. 16. CLIMATE CHANGEIS ALREADY A REALITYEven if fossil fuel supplies were infinite, we The global energy sector holdswould have another compelling reason for the key. It is responsible foran urgent switch to renewable around two-thirds of globalenergy: climate change. Hundreds of greenhouse gas emissions,millions of people worldwide are already an amount that is increasingaffected by water shortages, crop failures, at a faster rate than for anytropical diseases, flooding and extreme other sector. Coal is the mostweather events – conditions that are carbon-intensive fuel and thelikely to be made worse by increasing single largest source of globalconcentrations of greenhouse gasses in the greenhouse gas emissions.Earth’s atmosphere. The WHO estimates Embracing renewable energy,that climate change is already causing along with ambitious energy-more than 150,000 deaths a year6. saving measures, is the best way to achieve the rapid emissionsGlobal warming threatens the fragile reductions we need.balance of our planet’s ecosystems, andcould consign a quarter of all species 6. http://www.who.int/globalchange/news/ fsclimandhealth/en/index.htmlto extinction7. The loss of ecological 7. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/ n6970/abs/nature02121.htmlservices from forests, coral reefs and other 8. For a report on the effects of climate change on ecosystem services, see The Economics of Ecosystemsecosystems will also have huge economic and Biodiversity (TEEB) TEEB Climate Issues Update. September 2009implications8.The costs of adapting to 9. Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Pam Berry, Davidclimate change will be colossal: a recent Dodman, Samuel Fankhauser, Chris Hope, Sari Kovats, Robert Nicholls, David Satterthwaite, Richard Tiffin,report suggests that by 2030, the world Tim Wheeler (2009) Assessing the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCCC andmay need to spend more than €200 billion Other Recent Estimates, International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institutea year on measures such as building flood for Climate Change, London.defences, transporting water for agricultureand rebuilding infrastructure affectedby climate change9.To avoid devastatingconsequences, we must keep eventualglobal warming below 1.5°C compared topre-Industrial temperatures. To have achance of doing that, global greenhouse gasemissions need to start falling within thenext five years, and we need to cut them byat least 80 per cent globally by 2050 (from1990 levels) – and even further beyond thatdate.WWF The Energy Report Page 16
  18. 18. © Donald Miller / WWF-Canon“NUCLEAR IS ANUNETHICAL ANDEXPENSIVE OPTION”WWF The Energy Report Page 18
  19. 19. © Donald Miller / WWF-Canon 10,000 YRS OF HARMFUL ENERGY REPORT PART 1: THE WASTE NUCLEAR WASTE WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR 10,000 YEARS For some, nuclear power is seen to be a part of the solution to the energy crisis. It produces large-scale electricity with low carbon emissions – although mining and enriching uranium is very energy intensive. But we cannot escape the reality that nuclear fission produces dangerous waste that remains highly toxic for thousands of years – and there is nowhere in the world where it can be stored safely. The United States and Germany alone have accumulated more than 50,000 and 12,000 tonnes respectively, of highly radioactive waste which has not yet been disposed of securely. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, it will be at least 10,000 years before its threat to public health is substantively reduced. Equally troubling, the materials and technology needed for nuclear energy can also be used to produce nuclear weapons. In a politically unstable world, spreading nuclear capability is a dangerous course to take. Nuclear is no ‘easy’ technology. It requires a highly sophisticated and trained staff, and only works on a large scale, providing power around the clock. It is certainly not a viable way to provide electricity for the 1.4 billion people whom are currently denied it10, many of whom live in remote places in fragile states. Nuclear power is also an extremely expensive option. Before pouring billions into creating a new generation of nuclear power stations, we need to ask whether that money would be better invested in other, sustainable energy technologies. 10. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2010, Paris Map 3: Operational nuclear reactors P. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: Complete Global Set, 2002 Operational Nuclear Reactors WWF The Energy Report Page 19
  20. 20. “WE PREDICT, ONWWF’S PERSPECTIVE THE BASIS OF MID- RANGE CLIMATE-Climate change threatens to undoeverything that conservation organizationslike WWF have achieved over the last WARMINGhalf-century. Polar bears may make theheadlines, but in reality very few specieswill be unaffected by a changing climate.Many species could become extinct. Even SCENARIOS FORentire ecosystems – such as coral reefs,mountain habitats, and large blocks oftropical rainforests such as the Amazon –could completely disappear.Many plants and animals that have adaptedto their environment over millions of years 2050, THAT 15– 37% OF SPECIESare vulnerable to even slight changes intemperature and rainfall. Warming andacidifying seas threaten coral reefs andkrill – the basis of the marine food chain in IN OUR SAMPLEmany parts of the world. Large mammalslike whales and elephants may be forced totravel further in search of food, leaving thesafety of the protected areas that WWF and OF REGIONS ANDothers have fought so hard to secure.As part of the interwoven web of life, TAXA WILL BEhumans will not be immune to theconsequences of a changing climate.WWF’s mission is to protect themagnificent array of living things that ‘COMMITTED TOinhabit our planet and to create a healthyand prosperous future in which humanslive in harmony with nature. Solvingthe energy crisis is fundamental to this, EXTINCTION’” *whatever tough choices and challenges itbrings. * Thomas C.D. et al, 2004, Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, Vol 427, No. 8WWF The Energy Report Page 20
  21. 21. © Kevin Schafer / WWF-Canon WWF PERSPECTIVE PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORTWWF The Energy Report Page 21
  22. 22. Figure 3: World Energy Supply Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 Map 4: Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Potential This OMA map is an artists’ impression showing the abundance of Renewable Energy potentials. It is not intended to claim exact values for renewable energy potentials but represents a rough estimate based on landmass.WWF The Energy Report Page 22
  23. 23. 100%1:POSSIBLE PART THE ENERGY REPORT term return. While thousands projected increases100% POSSIBLE of houses throughout the world, especially in Germany and in population, long- distance travel and Scandinavia, have been built to increased economicSwitching to a fully renew- “passive house” standards that wealth – it does notable energy supply by 2050 is require almost no energy for demand radical changesachievable, but there are chal- heating and cooling, many more to the way we live.lenges to overcome. construction projects follow old-fashioned, energy-inefficient The scenario detailedThe global energy crisis is a daunting designs. by Ecofys for this reportchallenge. Yet we do not have to look far for is not the only solution,the solutions. Energy derived from the sun, Moving to a fully renewable nor is it intendedthe wind, the Earth’s heat, water and the energy future by 2050 is a radical to be a prescriptivesea has the potential to meet the world’s departure from humanity’s plan. Indeed, it raiseselectricity needs many times over, even current course. It is an ambitious a number of majorallowing for fluctuations in supply and goal. But WWF believes that it is challenges and difficultdemand. We can greatly reduce the amount a goal we can and must achieve. questions – particularlyof energy we use through simple measures This conviction led us to establish for a conservationlike insulating buildings, recycling a collaborative partnership organization like WWFmaterials and installing efficient biomass with Ecofys, one of the world’s – which we will discussstoves. Biomass from waste, crops and leading climate and energy in more detail on theforest resources has potential to provide a consultancies. We commissioned following pages. Torenewable source of energy – although this Ecofys to assess whether it would realize our vision of araises significant social and environmental be possible to secure a fully 100 per cent renewableissues, which we will discuss later in this renewable, sustainable energy and sustainable energyreport. supply for everyone on the planet supply, we need to by 2050. further advance theAround the world, people are taking steps Ecofys scenario; andin the right direction. In 2009, China The Ecofys scenario, which forms we propose some of theadded 37GW of renewable energy, bringing the second part of this report, is social and technologicalits total renewable capacity to 226GW the most ambitious analysis of changes that could help– equivalent to four times the capacity its kind to date. It demonstrates us do this.required to satisfy the total peak electrical that it is technically feasible topower consumption of Great Britain11 or supply everyone on the planet in In presenting the Ecofysover twice the total electric capacity of 2050 with the energy they need, scenario, WWF aimsAfrica!12 In Europe and the U.S., more than with 95 per cent of this energy to show that a fullyhalf of all new power capacity installed coming from renewable sources. renewable energy futurein 2009 came from renewable sources. This would reduce greenhouse is not an unattainableIn the developing world, more than 30 gas emissions from the energy utopia. It is technicallymillion households have their own biogas sector by about 80 per cent while and economicallygenerators for cooking and lighting. Over taking account of residual land- possible, and there are160 million use “improved” biomass stoves, based emissions from bioenergy concrete steps we canwhich are more efficient and produce production. take – starting rightless greenhouse gas and other pollutants. now – to achieve it.Solar water heating is used by 70 million The task ahead is, of course,households around the world. Wind power a huge one, raising major 11. Figures for UK energy demandcapacity has grown by 70 per cent, and challenges. However, the come from the National Grid’s website: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/solar power (PV) by a massive 190 per cent scenario Ecofys has mapped out Electricity/Data/Demand+Data/in the last two years (2008 and 2009). is practically possible. It is based 12. EIA World Electric Data 2006 http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/elec.htmlDuring the same period, total investment only on the technologies the 13. Renewables 2010 Global Status Report, REN 21.into all renewables has increased from world already has at its disposal,about $US 100 billion in 2007 to more and is realistic about the rate atthan $US 150 billion in which these can be brought up200913. to scale. Although significant investment will be required, theBut the pace of change is far too slow. economic outlay is reasonable,Non-hydro renewables still only comprise a with net costs never rising abovemere 3 per cent of all electricity consumed. 2 per cent of global GDP. TheHuge quantities of fossil fuels continue to Ecofys scenario accounts forbe extracted and used, and global carbonemissions are still rising. Governmentsubsidies and private investments in “WE CAN REDUCE OUR RELIANCE ONfossil fuels and nuclear power venturesstill vastly outweigh those into renewable FOSSIL FUELS BY 70% BY 2040”*energy and energy efficiency, even though * Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010the latter would give a far greater long- WWF The Energy Report Page 23
  24. 24. THE ECOFYS SCENARIO INA NUTSHELL 14In 2050, energy demand is 15 per cent viable – primarily in providing start to outweigh thelower than in 2005. Although population, fuels for aeroplanes, ships costs. If oil prices riseindustrial output, passenger travel and trucks, and in industrial faster than predicted,and freight transport continue to rise processes that require very high and if we factor in theas predicted, ambitious energy-saving temperatures. We can meet costs of climate changemeasures allow us to do more with part of this demand from waste and the impact of fossilless. Industry uses more recycled and products, but it would still be fuels on public health,energy-efficient materials, buildings are necessary to grow sustainable the pay-off occurs muchconstructed or upgraded to need minimal biofuel crops and take more wood earlier.energy for heating and cooling, and there is from well-managed forests toa shift to more efficient forms of transport. meet demand. Careful land-use 14. A table summarising all energy data is provided on pages 231 and 232 of the planning and better international Ecofys scenario. 500As far as possible, we use electrical energy cooperation and governance arerather than solid and liquid fuels. Wind, essential to ensure we do thissolar, biomass and hydropower are the without threatening food and 400main sources of electricity, with solar and water supplies or biodiversity, or Final Energy (EJ/a)geothermal sources, as well as heat pumps increasing atmospheric carbon.providing a large share of heat for buildingsand industry. Because supplies of wind and By 2050, we save nearly €4 300solar power vary, “smart” electricity grids trillion per year through energyhave been developed to store and deliver efficiency and reduced fuel costsenergy more efficiently. compared to a “business-as- usual” scenario. But big increases “BY 2050, WE 200Bioenergy (liquid biofuels and solidbiomass) is used as a last resort where in capital expenditure are needed first – to install renewable SAVE NEARLYother renewable energy sources are not energy-generating capacity on a massive scale, modernize €4 TRILLION 100 electricity grids, transform PER YEAR goods and public transport and improve the energy efficiency THROUGH 0 2000 201 of our existing buildings. Our investments begin to pay off ENERGY around 2040, when the savings EFFICIENCY AND REDUCED FUEL COSTS”Figure 4: World Energy Supply by Source.The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010WWF The Energy Report Page 24
  25. 25. THE ECOFYS SCENARIO INPART 1:NUTSHELL A THE ENERGY REPORT15 Map 5: Global Population Density 2010 Gridded Population of the World, version 3 (GPWv3) and the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) produced by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. WWF The Energy Report Page 25
  26. 26. ENERGYFOR ANEWFUTUREWWF The Energy Report Page 26
  27. 27. © Chris Martin Bahr / WWF-Canon CHANGINGTHEREALITY © Chris Martin Bahr / WWF-Canon PART 1: ENERGY REPORTWWF The Energy Report Page 27
  28. 28. Global potential of wind power THE ENERGY MIX Introducing the energy sources of the future At the moment, more than 80 per cent of our global energy comes from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal). The remainder comes from nuclear and renewable energy sources, mainly hydropower, and traditional biomass fuels such as charcoal, which are often used inefficiently and unsustainably. Under the Ecofys scenario, fossil fuels, nuclear power and traditional biomass are almost entirely phased-out by 2050, to be replaced with a more varied mixture of renewable energy sources. The Ecofys scenario takes into account each resource’s overall potential, current growth rates, selected sustainability criteria, and other constraints and opportunities such as variability of wind and solar sources. Technological breakthroughs, market forces and geographic location will all Global potential of water power influence the ways in which renewable energies are developed and deployed, so the final energy breakdown could well look very different - while still based on 100 per cent sustainable renewables.ENERGY OFTHE FUTURE WWF The Energy Report Page 28
  29. 29. THE PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT“IN ORDER TO CUT GLOBAL GREENHOUSEGAS EMISSIONS BY AT LEAST 80% BY 2050,THE WORLD WILL NEED TO TRANSITION TORENEWABLE ENERGY”Global potential of solar power and heatGlobal potential of geothermal energy Figure 5: World Renewable Production Potential The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 PV - Solar power from photovoltaics CSP - Concentrating solar power CSH - Concentrating solar high-temperature heat for industry Low T - Low temperature heat Hight T - High temperature heat WWF The Energy Report Page 29
  30. 30. Map 6: Global Solar PotentialNASA Map of World Solar Energy Potential WWF The Energy Report Page 30
  31. 31. © John E. Newby / WWF-Canon SOLAR PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORTSolar energyThe sun provides an effectively unlimited For developing countries, manysupply of energy that we can use to gener- of which are in regions thatate electricity and heat. At the moment, so- receive the most sunlight, solarlar energy technology contributes only 0.02 power is an especially importantper cent of our total energy supply, but this resource. Solar energy canproportion is growing fast. In the Ecofys generate power in rural areas, onscenario, solar energy supplies around half islands, and other remote placesof our total electricity, half of our building “off-grid”.heating and 15 per cent of our industrialheat and fuel by 2050, requiring an average One obvious drawback ofannual growth rate much lower than the solar power is that the supplyone currently sustained year on year. varies. Photovoltaic cells don’t function after dark – althoughSolar energy provides light, heat and most electricity is consumed inelectricity. Photovoltaic (PV) cells, daylight hours when sunshinewhich convert sunlight directly into also peaks – and are less effectiveelectricity, can be integrated into devices on cloudy days. But energy(solar-powered calculators have been storage is improving: CSParound since the 1970s) or buildings, or systems that can store energy ininstalled on exposed areas such as roofs. the form of heat - which can thenConcentrating solar power (CSP) uses be used to generate electricitymirrors or lenses to focus the sun’s rays - for up to 15 hours, are now atonto a small area where the heat can be the design stage. This issue ofcollected – for example to heat water, variability can also be addressedwhich can be used to generate electricity by combining solar electricityvia a steam turbine or for direct heat. The with other renewable electricitysame principle can be used on a small sources.scale to cook food or boil water. Solarthermal collectors absorb heat from the “IF 0.3% OF THEsun and provide hot water. Combinedwith improved insulation and windowarchitecture, direct sunshine can also beused to heat buildings. SAHARA DESERT WAS A CONCENTRATED SOLAR PLANT, IT WOULD POWER ALL OF EUROPE” * * Bridgette Meinhold, Desertec Foundation, 2009 WWF The Energy Report Page 31
  32. 32. WWF The Energy Report Page 32
  33. 33. © National Geographic Stock / Sarah Leen / WWF WIND PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORTWind energyWind power currently supplies around Although wind farms have a very wind developments2 per cent of global electricity demand, visible effect on the landscape, need to be sensitivelywith capacity more than doubling in the their environmental impact is planned to minimiselast four years. In Denmark, wind already minimal if they are planned the impact on marineaccounts for one-fifth of the country’s sensitively. When turbines are life and birds, and moreelectricity production. Wind could meet a sited on farmland, almost all research is neededquarter of the world’s electricity needs by of the land can still be used for in this area. Floating2050 if current growth rates continue – agriculture, such as grazing or turbines, which wouldrequiring an additional 1,000,000 onshore crops. Unlike fossil fuel and have less impact on theand 100,000 offshore turbines. Electricity nuclear power plants, wind seabed and could befrom offshore wind is less variable, and farms don’t need any water for sited in deeper water,turbines can be bigger. cooling. Both on- and offshore are being trialled.“AN ADDITIONAL 1,000,000ONSHORE AND 100,000 OFFSHOREWIND TURBINES WOULD MEETA QUARTER OF THE WORLD’SELECTRICITY NEEDS BY 2050”* * Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010 WWF The Energy Report Page 33
  34. 34. Geothermal energyThe ancient Romans used the heat frombeneath the Earth’s crust to heat buildingsand water, but only relatively recently havewe begun to rediscover its potential. Underthe Ecofys scenario, more than a thirdof building heat comes from geothermalsources by 2050. This is not restricted tovolcanically active areas: direct geothermalheat can provide central heating forbuildings in almost all parts of the world15.When temperatures are high enough,geothermal energy can be used to generateelectricity and local heating, includinghigh-temperature heat for industrialprocesses. Unlike wind or solar power,which vary with the weather, geothermalenergy provides a constant supply ofelectricity. Iceland already gets a quarterof its electricity and almost all of itsheating from its molten “basement”. In thePhilippines, geothermal plants generatealmost a fifth of total electricity16.Geothermal electric capacity is growingat around 5 per cent each year; the Ecofysanalysis suggests we could reasonablyhope to at least double this growth rateto provide about 4 per cent of our totalelectricity in 2050. Geothermal would alsoprovide 5 per cent of our industrial heatneeds. Exploiting geothermal resourceswill undoubtedly affect the surroundingenvironment and the people who livethere. Geothermal steam or hot water usedfor generating electricity contains toxiccompounds, but “closed loop” systemscan prevent these from escaping. If sitesare well chosen and systems are in placeto control emissions, they have littlenegative environmental impact. In fact,because geothermal plants need healthywater catchment areas, they may actuallystrengthen efforts to conserve surroundingecosystems17.15.Direct geothermal heat should not be confused with heat pumps,which are included on the demand-side in the Ecofys scenario andprovide heat in addition to geothermal energy.16. http://www.geo-energy.org/pdf/reports/GEA_International_Market_Report_Final_May_2010.pdf17. See: Geothermal Projects in National Parks in the Philippines: TheCase of the Mt. Apo Geothermal Project,Francis M. Dolor, PNOC Energy Development CorporationWWF The Energy Report Page 34
  35. 35. GEOTHERMAL PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORT © Michel Terrettaz / WWF-Canon“BY 2050, MORE THAN A THIRD OF BUILDING HEAT COULD COME FROM GEOTHERMAL SOURCES ”* *Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010 WWF The Energy Report Page 35
  37. 37. © Wild Wonders of Europe /Inaki Relanzon / WWF OCEAN PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORTOcean powerThe motion of the ocean, throughboth waves and tides, providesa potentially vast and reliablesource of energy – but there aresignificant challenges in convert-ing it into electricity. Several pilotprojects are underway to harnesswave energy and to design sus-tainable tidal systems, but this is arelatively new technology. Recog-nising this constraint, the Ecofysscenario assumes that ocean pow-er accounts for only 1 per cent ofglobal electricity supply by 2050.However, it is likely to provide asignificantly larger percentage insome particularly suitable areas,like America’s Pacific Northwestand the British Isles.Wave and tidal power installa-tions could affect the local marineenvironment, coastal communi-ties, as well as maritime indus-tries such as shipping and fishing.It is critical that appropriate sitesare selected and technologies de-veloped that minimize any nega-tive impacts.* M.M. Bernitsas, et al., Vortex Induced Vibration Aquatic Clean Energy): A NewConcept in Generation of Clean and Renewable Energy from Fluid Flow” OMAE ’06 WWF The Energy Report Page 37
  38. 38. HydropowerHydropower is currently the world’s largest “NEWrenewable power source, providing nearlyone-fifth of all electricity worldwide. Large-scale hydropower plants store water in areservoir behind a dam, and then regulate HYDROPOWERthe flow according to electricity demand.Hydropower can provide a relativelyreliable source of power on demand, SCHEMES WOULDhelping to balance variable sources likewind and solar PV.However, hydropower can have severe NEED TO MEETenvironmental and social impacts. Bychanging water flow downstream, damsthreaten freshwater ecosystems and thelivelihoods of millions of people who STRINGENTdepend on fisheries, wetlands, and regulardeposits of sediment for agriculture. Theyfragment habitats and cut-off fish access ENVIRONMENTALto traditional spawning grounds. Creatingreservoirs means flooding large areas ofland: 40-80 million people worldwide havebeen displaced as a result of hydroelectric SUSTAINABILITYschemes18.The Ecofys scenario reflects these AND HUMANconcerns with a relatively small increase inhydropower. Hydropower would provide12 per cent of our electricity in 2050compared with 15 per cent today. New RIGHTS CRITERIA”hydropower schemes would need to meetstringent environmental sustainabilityand human rights criteria, and minimizeany negative impacts on river flows andfreshwater habitats.18. http://www.internationalrivers.org/en/way-forward/world-commission-dams/world-commission-dams-framework-brief-introductionWWF The Energy Report Page 38
  39. 39. © Hartmut Jungius / WWF-Canon HYDRO PART 1: THE ENERGYMIX ENERGY REPORTWWF The Energy Report Page 39
  40. 40. © naturepl.com/ Tim Laman / WWFBio energyEnergy from biomass – materials derived waste. Using these resources deforestation, foodfrom living or recently living organisms, up to a sustainable level has and water shortages,such as plant materials or animal waste – is other environmental benefits, and other social andpotentially the most challenging part of the such as cutting methane and environmental impacts,Ecofys scenario. Bioenergy comes from a nitrogen emissions and water so must be consideredlarge variety of sources and is used in many pollution from animal slurry, and with utmost care.different ways. Wood and charcoal have reducing the need for landfill. Intraditionally provided the main source of developing countries, more than With an expected 2fuel for cooking and heating for hundreds 30 million households have their billion more mouths toof millions of people in the developing own biogas digesters for cooking feed by 2050, it is vitalworld. More recently, biofuels have begun and lighting. Some residues and that increased biofuelto replace some petrol and diesel in waste products are already used, cultivation does not usevehicles. for example as soil conditioners; land and water that is the Ecofys scenario accounts for needed to grow foodIn principle, biomass is a renewable these. for people or to sustainresource – it is possible to grow new plants biodiversity. This is noto replace the ones we use. Greenhouse The second major source of easy challenge. Whilegas emissions are lower than from fossil biomass comes from forests. Ecofys has applied afuels, provided there is enough regrowth According to the Ecofys scenario, series of safeguards into absorb the carbon dioxide released, and we will need more than 4.5 billion its analysis, land andgood management practices are applied. cubic metres of wood products water implications ofBioenergy also has potential to provide for energy purposes by 2050 bioenergy feedstocksustainable livelihoods for millions of coming from harvesting and production will needpeople, particularly in Africa, Asia and processing residues, wood waste further research,Latin America. However, if produced and “complementary fellings” especially at theunsustainably its environmental and social – the difference between the landscape level.impacts can be devastating. We need amount of wood we use and thecomprehensive policies and mandatory maximum amount that we could A possible long-termcertification to ensure bioenergy is sustainably harvest in forests that alternative sourceproduced to the highest standards. are already used commercially. of high-density fuel This is preferable to taking included in this scenarioAlthough the Ecofys scenario favours wood from virgin forests and is algae. Algae canother renewable resources wherever disturbing important habitats, be grown in vats ofpossible, there are some applications where although more intensive forestry saltwater or wastewaterbioenergy is currently the only suitable is bound to affect biodiversity. on land not suitable forreplacement for fossil fuels. Aviation, In addition, some of the biomass agriculture. Large-scaleshipping and long-haul trucking require traditionally used for heating and cultivation of algae forliquid fuels with a high energy density; cooking in the developing world, biofuel is currently inthey cannot, with current technology and which will largely be replaced by development. In thefuelling infrastructure, be electrified or renewable energy sources such Ecofys scenario, algaepowered by hydrogen. Some industrial as solar energy, can also be used begins to appear as aprocesses, such as steel manufacturing, for more efficient bioenergy uses. viable energy sourcerequire fuels not only for their energy All the same, meeting demand around 2030, and onlycontent, but as feedstocks with specific sustainably will be a huge a fraction of its potentialmaterial properties. By 2050, 60 per cent challenge. is included by 2050.of industrial fuels and heat will come frombiomass. 13 per cent of building heat will Bioenergy crops provide a The apparent need forcome from biomass and some biomass will possible source of liquid fuel large amounts of landstill be needed in the electricity mix (about – either vegetable oils from for bioenergy is the13 per cent), for balancing purposes with plants such as rapeseed, or in aspect of the Ecofysother renewable energy technologies. the form of ethanol derived from scenario that produces crops high in sugar, starch or the hardest challengesWe can derive a significant proportion of cellulose. The Ecofys scenario and raises the hardestthe bioenergy needs in the Ecofys scenario suggests we will need around questions. We willfrom products that would otherwise go to 250 million hectares of bioenergy discuss these further onwaste. These include some plant residues crops – equal to about one- pages 60-61.from agriculture and food processing; sixth of total global croplandsawdust and residues from forestry and – to meet projected demand.wood processing; manure; and municipal This has the potential to causeWWF The Energy Report Page 40
  41. 41. © naturepl.com/ Tim Laman / WWF BIOENERGY MIX PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT Map 7: World biomass potential WWF The Energy Report Page 41 Artist’s impression, OMA
  42. 42. THECHAL-LENGESAHEADWWF The Energy Report Page 42
  43. 43. © Simon de TREY-WHITE / WWF-UK CHALLENGESENERGY REPORT PART 1: THE AHEADTHE CHALLENGES AHEADThe Ecofys analysis shows that the worldcan technically meet its energy needs fromrenewable sources by 2050. But it throwsup some difficult challenges – and not justtechnical ones. The social, environmental,economic and political issues this reportraises are equally pressing.On the technical side, two key factors willenable the world to meet its energy needsfrom renewable sources: (i) We needto reduce demand by improving energyefficiency and reducing wasteful use ofenergy; and (ii) because electricity andheat are the forms of energy most easilygenerated by renewables, we need tomaximize the use of electricity and directheat, with improvements to electricity gridsto support this.A sustainable energy future must be anequitable one. Its impact on people andnature will greatly depend on the way weuse our land, seas and water resources.Changes in lifestyle also have a critical roleto play.Moving to a renewable future will meanrethinking our current finance systems. Itwill also require innovation.Local, national and regional governancewill need to be greatly strengthened tosecure an equitable energy future. Weneed international cooperation andcollaboration on an unprecedented levelto bridge the gap between the energy-richand energy-poor, both within and betweencountries.These challenges are outlined on thefollowing pages. WWF The Energy Report Page 43
  44. 44. ENERGY CONSERVATIONHow can we do more whileusing less energy?Under the Ecofys scenario, global energy In the developing world, more The world will also needdemand in 2050 is 15 per cent lower than than 160 million households now to use less energy forin 2005. This is in striking contrast to use improved biomass cooking transport. That means“business-as-usual” projections, which stoves. Simply using a ceramic making more fuel-predict energy demand will at least lining instead of an all-metal efficient models of alldouble. This difference is not based on design can improve efficiency forms of transport, andany reduction in activity – industrial by up to a half. The stoves cost operating them moreoutput, domestic energy use, passenger little, reduce carbon emissions effectively. Improvedtravel and freight transport continue to and deforestation from charcoal air traffic managementgrow, particularly in developing countries. production, and have immense could reduce congestionInstead, reductions come from using health benefits. Even more and allow planes toenergy as efficiently as possible. efficient are solar cookers, which follow more efficient simply use and concentrate the routes and landingEnergy conservation is one of the heat from the sun. Distributed approaches, making aprerequisites of a future powered by widely enough, these small-scale small but significantrenewables. We will not be able to meet solutions add up to a significant reduction in aviationthe needs of our planet’s expected nine reduction in energy demand. fuel demands. Similarly,billion inhabitants if we continue to use it better port, route andas wastefully as we do today. It is the single The world already has the weather planning, alongmost important element in the Ecofys architectural and construction with reduced speeds,scenario. expertise to create buildings that can significantly reduce require almost no conventional fuel use in cargo ships.In every sector, solutions already exist that energy for heating or cooling,can deliver the massive energy savings we through airtight construction, But we will also need toneed. The challenge will be in rolling them heat pumps and sunlight. The move to more efficientout on a global scale as soon as possible. Ecofys scenario foresees all modes of transport; new buildings achieving these making greater useIn manufacturing, using recycled materials standards by 2030. of buses, bikes, tramsgreatly reduces energy consumption. and trains, sendingFor example, making new products from At the same time, we need to more freight by railrecovered aluminium instead of primary radically improve the energy and sea, and swappingaluminium cuts total energy use by more efficiency of our existing short-haul flights forthan two-thirds. Stocks of materials that buildings. We could reduce high-speed trains.take a lot of energy to produce, such as heating needs by 60 per cent Indeed, WWF wouldsteel and aluminium, have grown over the by insulating walls, roofs argue that we need topast decades, making recycling and reusing and ground floors, replacing go further than this, bymaterials increasingly viable. Finding old windows and installing reducing the numberalternatives to materials that take the most ventilation systems that recover and length of journeysenergy to produce, such as cement and heat. Local solar thermal systems we need to take – bysteel, will mean further energy savings. and heat pumps would fulfil the improving urban remaining heating and hot water planning, logisticsProduct design also has considerable needs. For all buildings to meet and communicationimplications for energy use. Making cars these energy efficiency standards technology, andwith lighter (although not weaker) frames by 2050, we will need to retrofit reassessing ourand with new materials, for example, 2-3 per cent of floor area every priorities.and producing smaller cars reduces both year. This is ambitious, butthe need for energy-intensive steel in not impossible – Germany has The more energy wemanufacturing and their fuel consumption. already achieved annual retrofit save, the easier theDespite some very innovative models rates in this range. task of moving to aon markets already, there is still huge renewable energy futurepotential to tap into much higher efficiency will become. It is onelevels for all energy-hungry appliances. area where everyone can play a part.WWF The Energy Report Page 44
  45. 45. © Michel Gunther / WWF-Canon ENERGY CONSERVATION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT“THE GLOBALCOST OF LIGHTINGIS $230 BILLIONPER YEAR.MODERNIZINGWASTEFULTECHNOLOGYCOULD SAVE 60%” ** Mills, E. 2002, “The $230-billion Global Lighting EnergyBill.“, International Association for Energy-EfficientLighting, Stockholm DO MORE WITH LESS WWF The Energy Report Page 45
  46. 46. © National Geographic Stock/ Jim Richardson / WWF“ENERGYEFFICIENCYANDRENEWABLEENERGY CANREDUCE OURDEPENDENCEON FOSSILFUELS BY70% BY2040” ** The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010WWF The Energy Report Page 46
  47. 47. © National Geographic Stock/ Jim Richardson / WWF ENERGY CONSERVATION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT WHAT NOW? • We must introduce legally binding • Energy taxation is a realistic replace air travel as minimum efficiency standards worldwide option, particularly in wealthier much as possible, and for all products that consume energy, countries. Taxes on petrol, a maximum proportion including buildings, along the lines of electricity and fuels are already of freight should be the Japanese “Top Runner” scheme and commonplace. Shifting taxes delivered by rail. the European EcoDesign requirements. to products and cars that use Sustainable and public Governments, companies and experts more energy will help to steer transport modes for all will need to agree standards based demand toward more efficient distances, particularly on Best-Available-Technology (BAT) alternatives. for rail-based transport, benchmarks, which should be monitored must be made cheaper and strengthened regularly. • Developing countries must than road- and air- phase-out the inefficient use of borne traffic. • Energy conservation should be built into traditional biomass, and pursue every stage of product design. Wherever alternatives such as improved • Individuals, possible we should use energy-efficient, biomass cooking stoves, solar businesses, highly-durable and recyclable materials. cookers and small-scale biogas communities and Alternatives to materials like cement, steel digesters. Industrialized nations all need to and plastic that take a lot of energy to countries should facilitate this by be more aware of the produce should be a focus for research and providing financial assistance, as energy they use, and try development. We should adopt a “cradle part of international development to save energy wherever to cradle” design philosophy, where all of commitments and global efforts possible. Driving more a product’s components can be reused or to reduce greenhouse gas slowly and smoothly, recycled once it reaches the end of its life. emissions. buying energy- efficient appliances • We need strict energy-efficiency criteria • Substantial investment is and switching them for all new buildings, aiming toward near- needed into public transport off when not in use, zero energy use, equivalent to “Passive to provide convenient and turning down heating House” standards. Retrofitting rates affordable energy-efficient and air conditioning, must increase quickly to improve the alternatives to private cars. We and increased reusing energy efficiency of existing buildings. particularly need to improve and recycling are just Governments must provide legislation and rail infrastructure: high-speed some ways to make a incentives to enable this. trains, powered by electricity contribution. from renewable sources, should WWF The Energy Report Page 47
  48. 48. CASE STUDY WWF The Energy Report Page 48
  49. 49. WWW.TOPTEN.INFO PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT © National Geographic Stock / Tyrone Turner / WWF “WWF HELPED DEVELOP TOPTEN, AN ONLINE SEARCH TOOL THAT IDENTIFIES THE MOST ENERGY- EFFICIENT APPLIANCES ON THE MARKET” TopTen.info Consumers and retailers can put pressure on manufacturers to be more energy efficient through their buying choices. WWF helped develop Topten (www.topten.info), an online search tool that identifies the most energy-efficient appliances on the market. Discerning buyers can compare energy-efficiency ratings for a growing number of items, including cars and vans, household appliances, office equipment, lighting, water heaters and air conditioners. Topten now operates in 17Figure XX.XX countries across Europe and has recently been launched in the USA and China. WWF The Energy Report Page 49
  50. 50. © Nigel Dickinson / WWF-CanonWWF The Energy Report Page 50
  51. 51. © Nigel Dickinson / WWF-Canon ELECTRIFICATION PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT ELECTRIFICATION Renewable sources could provide effectively unlimited power, but how do we switch onto them? The Ecofys scenario for a renewable energy of electricity grids to deliver it. adjust electricity flow future depends upon using electrical power Our existing grid infrastructure – for example, by from clean, renewable sources in place of can only manage a limited tweaking thermostat fossil fuels and nuclear wherever possible. amount of these variable, temperatures – to cope Currently, electricity makes up less than supply-driven sources. Grids with spikes in demand. one-fifth of our total final energy demand; need to keep electrical voltage We could also take by 2050, under the Ecofys scenario, it and frequency steady to avoid advantage of times accounts for almost half. Cars and trains, dangerous power surges, and when supply outstrips for example, will become fully electrified, need the capacity to meet peaks demand to charge while other energy uses (such as fuel to in demand. Today, we keep some car batteries and to heat buildings) will be minimized. power stations, notably coal and generate hydrogen fuel. nuclear, working around the Using more renewable electricity presents clock to provide a permanent At the same time, we several challenges. First, of course, we need supply of electricity (or “base need to bring electricity to generate it. That will mean massively load”). These power stations to those who are not increasing our capacity to produce power cannot simply be switched-off connected to the grid from the renewable resources with the least when renewable energy supplies – particularly in rural environmental impact – through wind, are high, meaning some of this areas in developing solar and geothermal power technologies in energy goes to waste. countries. We can particular. While we will need many more do this by extending large-scale renewable power plants, we will The Ecofys analysis estimates existing grids, or also generate more power at a local level, that networks in industrialized generating power using solar PV roof tiles, water wheels and countries could take about 20-30 at the household individual wind turbines, for example. We are going to need massive investment WWF suggests per cent of total electricity from variable sources without further modernization. At a conservative or community level through solar, micro- hydro, wind power or white borders and to extend and modernize our electricity estimate, this will rise to 60 small-scale biomass grids to cope with increased loads and per cent by 2050 through plants. Providing the different energy sources. We need to improvements in technology 1.4 billion who have background transmit power efficiently from offshore and grid management. The no reliable electricity19 wind turbines, desert solar parks or other 40 per cent would come with a basic supply remote geothermal plants to urban from hydropower, biomass, of 50-100 kWh per centres – while minimizing the impact of geothermal electricity and CSP year would require new power lines or subterranean cables. with storage. investments of about Efficient international networks will also €25 billion per year help balance variable renewable sources The combination of large between now and from different regions. Within Europe, for (“super”) and “smart” grids holds 203020 , or 0.05 per cent example, wind and ocean power from the the key. Power companies and of global GDP. North Sea area could complement Alpine consumers will get information hydropower and solar power from the on energy supply, and price, The electricity networks Mediterranean and even North Africa. to help manage demand. Put that power our world simply, it will be cheaper to are one of the great While solar and wind have the potential to run your washing machine engineering feats of supply an effectively unlimited amount of when the wind is blowing or the 20th century. The power, this is constrained by the capacity the sun is shining. Households, work we need to do to offices or factories would modernize them over programme smart meters to the coming decades will operate certain appliances or be one of the great feats processes automatically when of the 21st. power supplies are plentiful. 19. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), Utility companies would 2010, Paris . 20. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2009, Paris WWF The Energy Report Page 51