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Latin America—
Light Vehicle Outlook


 Guido Vildozo
 Manager, Latin America
 Junio 17, 2011
Agenda
• Economia Global
• Perspectiva Regional
• Brazil
• Mexico
• Argentina
• Resumen




 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
La Recuperacion Global Desacelera
         (Percent change)

  10


     5


     0


   -5


-10
         1974              1979              1984    1989      1994   1999    2004       2009   2014

                                                    Real GDP     Industrial Production



Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Los Mercados Emergentes Lideran la
Expansion Global
          (Real GDP, percent change)

 10
    8
    6
    4
    2
    0
  -2
  -4
         1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

                                      World      Advanced Countries   Emerging Markets



Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Precios de Materiales Industriales
        (IHS Global Insight indexes, 2002:1=1)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
  2002             2003             2004         2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011

                                     All Materials       Chemicals     Nonferrous Metals


Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                    5
Consumo Chino de Commodities
                  (Percent of total world consumption)
  Cement
  Iron Ore
      Coal
      Pigs
      Steel
      Lead
       Zinc
Aluminum
   Copper
     Eggs
     Nickel
      Rice
Soybeans
    Wheat
 Chickens
      PPP
        Oil
     Cattle
      GDP

                 0                        10      20            30               40                50               60
Source: Barclays Capital (2010), Credit Suisse (2010), Goldman Sachs, US Geological Survey (2009), BP Statistical Review
of World Energy (2009), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (2008), IMF (2010)

 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas Globales
                     100                                                                              15%
                           Global   Change
                      90




                                                                                                             Year-Over-Year Change
                      80                                                                              10%
 Sales in Millions




                      70
                      60                                                                              5%




                                                                                                                       Year Change
                      50
                      40                                                                              0%
                      30
                      20                                                                              -5%
                      10
                       0                                                                              -10%
                           2008     2009         2010    Apr   Apr 2011   2011   2012   2013   2014
                                                        2011     YTD
• Las ventas globales en los primeros 4 meses del ano crecieron 5.4% sobre el 2010. Vemos ya una
  desaceleracion apartir del mes de Marzo con 2.6% de crecimiento annual y 1.8% para el mes de Abril.
• Anticipamos 76 millones para este ano, un 5.5% de crecimiento comparado al 2010. Esto despues de
  reducir 600,000 unidades reflejando el impacto de Japon.




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas Globales 2011

                                                                                                                                76.1
                    78                                                                                    428,000              Million
                                                        1.72
                                                               652,000 282,000          119,000 245,000
                                              1.2      Million
                                                                                                                    -118,000
                    74              72.2     Million                             -610,000
Sales in Millions




                                   Million

                    70

                                                                                            +5.5%
                    66    64
                         Million

                    62


                    58
                         2009       2010      North Greater South South Japan/ Middle Others Central/ West                      2011
                                             America China  Asia America Korea East/          East Europe
                                                                               Africa        Europe




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Produccion Global
                           100                                                                                    30%
                                  Global       Change
                           90                                                                                     25%




                                                                                                                         Year-Over-Year Change
  Production in Millions



                           80                                                                                     20%
                           70
                                                                                                                  15%
                           60
                                                                                                                  10%




                                                                                                                                   Year Change
                           50
                                                                                                                  5%
                           40
                                                                                                                  0%
                           30
                           20                                                                                     -5%
                           10                                                                                     -10%
                            0                                                                                     -15%
                                 2008   2009     2010    Apr   Apr 2011    2Q    2011   2012     2013    2014
                                                        2011     YTD      2011

• Los desastres naturales en Japon durante el mes de Marzo han impactado los volumenes de produccion del
                   mes de Abril. Solo Japon registro una caida del 70% contra el 2010. El impacto seria mayor de no ser por el
                   solido performance de MERCOSUR y China.




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Impacto en produccion Global en pronostico
     de Junio comparado a Marzo
     actualizado al 26 de Mayo, 2011 (000‘s)
 Total—All OEMs

                        1Q2011                2Q2011            3Q2011       4Q2011       1Q2012       2Q2012    3Q2012       Foregone
                                                                                                                               Volume

Japan                            (488)                (1,106)      (463)              2       400          632       492            530
Korea                                  0                 (11)            1        10               0        0             0              0
China                                (1)               (339)             0        90          148           35            0          67
SE Asia                              (3)               (277)        (49)          129         201           0             0              0
NA                                 (11)                (456)        (41)          82          225          163            0          37
Europe                             (16)                (215)        (36)          104         153           12            0              0
Other                                (1)                 (26)       (22)          13           34           0             0              0
Total LV                         (518)                (2,430)      (610)          430        1,161         842       492            635



      Negative volumes are lost production
      Positive volumes are recovered production
      Foregone volume due to demand destruction and lost Japan OEM market share




     Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Perspectiva Regional




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
America Latina –PIB
                                                   1991   1996   2001   2006   2011   2016   2021
                                                      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Country/Five-year period                             95     00     05     10     15     20     25
Argentina                                           6.0    2.6    2.0    6.6    4.4    4.0    3.8
Brazil                                              3.1    2.0    2.8    4.4    5.2    4.9    4.7
Chile                                               8.7    4.2    4.2    3.3    5.1    5.0    4.8
Colombia                                            4.6    0.9    3.6    4.2    4.3    4.7    4.5
Costa Rica                                          5.5    4.9    4.1    4.5    3.7    3.5    3.4
Ecuador                                             3.4    0.4    5.2    3.3    1.9    3.1    2.5
Mexico                                              1.8    5.4    1.5    1.8    3.8    3.9    3.8
Peru                                                5.5    2.5    4.2    7.2    5.7    5.1    4.6
Uruguay                                             3.9    2.2    0.2    6.3    4.0    3.3    3.3
Venezuela                                           3.4    0.7    2.5    3.4    3.2    3.9    3.4
Latin America & Caribbean                           3.4    3.0    2.3    3.7    4.5    4.3    4.2
  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
America Latina –Poblacion
                                                   1991-   2006-   2011-   2021-
(Millions of persons)                                 95      10      15      25
Argentina                                           33.9    39.9    41.8    45.3
Brazil                                             156.9   191.9   200.0   212.0
Chile                                               13.9    16.8    17.6    18.9
Colombia                                            35.2    45.0    48.2    53.9
Costa Rica                                           3.3     4.5     4.8     5.4
Ecuador                                             11.0    13.5    14.3    15.8
Mexico                                              87.2   108.5   113.6   121.9
Peru                                                23.1    28.8    30.5    33.9
Uruguay                                              3.2     3.4     3.4     3.5
Venezuela                                           21.3    28.3    30.6    34.7
Latin America & Caribbean                          465.0   575.7   606.4   659.7

  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Venta Regional por Pais
   -Volumen
     10,0                                             10,0
Millones




           9,0                                        9,0    VEN
                                                             URY
           8,0                                        8,0
                                                             PER
           7,0                                        7,0    PAY
           6,0                                        6,0    ECU
                                                             COL
           5,0                                        5,0
                                                             CHL
           4,0                                        4,0    BRA
                                                             BOL
           3,0                                        3,0
                                                             ARG
           2,0                                        2,0    OPTIMISTIC
           1,0                                        1,0    PESSIMISTIC

           0,0                                        0,0



     Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                  14
Produccion Regional por Pais
   -Volumen
           9,0                                        9,0
Millones




           8,0                                        8,0
                                                            VEN
           7,0                                        7,0   URY

           6,0                                        6,0   PER
                                                            ECU
           5,0                                        5,0   COL
                                                            CHL
           4,0                                        4,0
                                                            BRA
           3,0                                        3,0   ARG
                                                            OPTIMISTIC
           2,0                                        2,0
                                                            PESSIMISTIC
           1,0                                        1,0
           0,0                                        0,0



     Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                 15
Brazil




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Sumario Economico Brazil
          Real GDP Growth (%)                                                Consumer Price Inflation (%)
    8                                                                    7
    6                                                                    6
    4
                                                                         5
    2
    0                                                                    4
   -2                                                                    3
        2004          2006         2008          2010   2012   2014      2004       2006   2008   2010    2012    2014

          Exchange Rate per USD*                                             Current Account Balance**
 3.0                                                                   20
                                                                        0
 2.5
                                                                       -20
 2.0
                                                                       -40
 1.5                                                                   -60
   2004             2006          2008           2010   2012    2014         2004   2006   2008   2010   2012    2014

*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars


Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
PIB/Capita
        (US $ ,000)
30

25

20

15

10

 5

 0
     1990                     1995                2000       2005         2010   2015   2020
                                                         GDP per Capita



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Cambio Monetario
        (LCU/US$)
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
      1990                     1995               2000   2005     2010   2015   2020
                                                         R$/US$



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                    19
SELIC – Tasas a Corto Plazo
        (Percent)
60,0

50,0

40,0

30,0

20,0

10,0

 0,0
       1990                      1995             2000   2005    2010   2015   2020
                                                         SELIC



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                   20
Tasa de Desempleo
        (Percent)
14,0

12,0

10,0

 8,0

 6,0

 4,0

 2,0

 0,0
       1990                      1995             2000         2005          2010   2015   2020
                                                         Unemployment Rate



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Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Indice de
  Empleo
350 Thousand Units                                                                                 110


300
           Employment remains                                                                      100
           favourable
250
                                                                                                   90
200
                                                                                                   80
150

                                                                                                   70
100


 50                                                                                                60
   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
                                     LV Sales (left scale)   Employment Index (right scale)

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Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Tasas de
  Financiamiento
350 Thousand Units                                                                                    Percent 20
           Financing is a major
           driver, rates uncertain                                                                               25
300
                                                                                                                 30
250
                                                                                                                 35

200                                                                                                              40

                                                                                                                 45
150
                                                                                                                 50
100
                                                                                                                 55

 50                                                                                                              60
   2000         2001           2002           2003    2004     2005   2006   2007    2008     2009   2010
                                           LV Sales (left scale)      APR Financing (right scale)

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Impacto Historico de Empleo,
Poblacion/Demografia y Tasas de
Financiamiento en Brazil
                                                                                               15.2

                                                                                               14.8

                                                                                               14.4
                          .3
                                                                                               14.0
                          .2
                                                                                               13.6
                          .1
                          .0                                                                   13.2

                        -.1

                        -.2
                        -.3
                               90        92      94   96     98   00   02   04    06      08

                                                  Residual         Actual        Fitted
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                        24
Perspectivas del Mercado Brasilero
                           Futuro promisorio gracias a credito y precios mas bajos
8,0
          Million Units                                                                                                        8,0

7,0                                                                                                                            7,0

6,0                                                                                                                            6,0

5,0                                                                                                                            5,0

4,0                                                                                                                            4,0

3,0                                                                                                                            3,0

2,0                                                                                                                            2,0

1,0                                                                                                                            1,0

0,0                                                                                                                            0,0
        1994        1996        1998         2000      2002   2004   2006    2008   2010   2012   2014   2016   2018   2020

                               Current Base                          Pessimistic (20%)              Optimistic (20%)

      Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                      25
Parque Automotor/Densidad

          Million Units                                                           Units per ‘000
70,00                                                                                              300,0

60,00                                                                                              250,0

50,00
                                                                                                   200,0
40,00
                                                                                                   150,0
30,00
                                                                                                   100,0
20,00

10,00                                                                                              50,0

 0,00                                                                                              0,0


                                                  Volume - L   Market Share - R



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros
          Percentage
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%                                                                                 Big four continue to loose
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
          2005                  2007               2009       2011         2013      2015      2017       2019
         OTHER                    CHERY              NISSAN          MITSUBISHI   TOYOTA     RENAULT      HYUNDAI
         HONDA                    PSA                FORD            GM           VW GROUP   FIAT GROUP



  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Inversion de la Industria Automotriz
6000        US$ Millions


5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

    0




                                                  Investment OEMs   Investment Suppliers


 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Produccion: Inversiones Para Atender
  Demanda de los proximos Diez Anos
7,50 Million Units

6,50        • 5 MM para el 2015
            • Cuatro plantas nuevas:
            Hyundai, Toyota, Chery,
5,50
            Fiat
4,50

3,50

2,50

1,50

0,50
       1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
                Light Vehicle Production            Capacity   OPTIMISTIC   PESSIMISTIC



   Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                         29
Perfil de Nuevos Productos (Regionales)
                       2009                         2010              2011               2012                  2013                  2014

                                                                                   Sienna, Weekend,
 Fiat                Strada 4                     Uno, Bravo          Palio
                                                                                          Strada
                                                                                                         City Car (Topolino)    Uno, Punto, Linea



                                                                                                           Up, Saveiro,
 VW                Saveiro, Fox                    Amarok                          Gol, Voyage, Fox
                                                                                                           Parati/Polo SUV
                                                                                                                                   Polo (Mex)



                                                                                   S-10; Blazer; Aveo,
 GM                    Agile                       Montana            Cruze              GSV MPV,           Spark Sedan               Agile
                                                                                           Spark


                                            Fiesta, Fiesta 299                      Ecosport, Fiesta       Ranger; Focus
 Ford                                               (MEX)                               HBA 299              Courier Drop
                                                                                                                                       Ka



                                                  Hoggar, C3
 PSA                                               Picasso; 408
                                                                       308              C3, 208               208 PUP               EM CAR



Renault                                            Fluence        Duster; Kangoo   Micra from MEX?            Sandero                Logan



Toyota                                                                                    Etios               Corolla          Hilux, Hilux SW4



Honda                   City                                                             Civic                 Brio                 Fit, City


 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                               30
Brazil Scorecard
Positivo:                                          Riesgos:
• Estabilidad Economica                            • Capacidad Ociosa en plantas
                                                   • Falta de Capacidad del Sector
• Inversion Directa Extranjera
                                                     Autopartista
• Empleo                                           • Infraestructura Ineficiente
• Financiamiento                                   • Cambio de Moneda (Exportaciones)
      • Rentabilidad/Lucratividad                  • Precio de Vehiculos Nuevos
      • Hasta 84 Meses                             • Riesgo de Credito Privado/PIB
      • Reduccion de Tasas                         • Crecimiento Salarial vs Inflacion
                                                   • Congestion Vehicular
• Cambio de Moneda (Importados)
                                                   • Dependencia en commodities
• Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria
• PIB per Capita
• Baja Densidad de Motorizacion
• Producto Nuevo
• Inversion de la Industria



  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                     31
Mexico




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Sumario Economico Mexico
          Real GDP Growth (%)                                                Consumer Price Inflation (%)
   10                                                                  5.5
     5                                                                 5.0
     0                                                                 4.5
    -5                                                                 4.0
  -10                                                                  3.5
         2004         2006         2008          2010   2012   2014      2004       2006   2008   2010    2012    2014

          Exchange Rate per USD*                                             Current Account Balance**
  14                                                                    0

  13                                                                    -5
  12                                                                   -10
  11                                                                   -15
  10                                                                   -20
   2004             2006          2008           2010   2012    2014         2004   2006   2008   2010   2012    2014

*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars


Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
PIB/Capita
        (US $ ,000)
20
18
16
14
12
10
 8
 6
 4
 2
 0
     1990                     1995                2000       2005         2010   2015   2020
                                                         GDP per Capita



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                            34
Cambio Monetario
        (LCU/US$)
16,0
14,0
12,0
10,0
 8,0
 6,0
 4,0
 2,0
 0,0
       1990                      1995             2000    2005     2010   2015   2020
                                                         MP$/US$



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CETES – Tasas a Corto Plazo
        (Percent)
60,0

50,0

40,0

30,0

20,0

10,0

 0,0
       1990                      1995             2000   2005    2010   2015   2020
                                                         CETES



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                   36
Tasa de Desempleo
        (Percent)
6,0

5,0

4,0

3,0

2,0

1,0

0,0
      1990                     1995               2000        2005           2010   2015   2020
                                                         Unemployment Rate



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                               37
Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs.
   Fondos Para Creditos Durables
                                                                                             Billion Pesos
1200 Thousand Units                                                                                      100,00
1150                                                                                                     90,00
1100                                                                                                     80,00
               Credit is limiting momentum
1050                                                                                                     70,00
1000                                                                                                     60,00
 950                                                                                                     50,00
 900                                                                                                     40,00
 850                                                                                                     30,00
 800                                                                                                     20,00
 750                                                                                                     10,00
 700                                                           0,00
    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
                                              LV Sales (left scale)   Credit Durable Goods

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Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs. Indice de
   Confianza del Consumidor
1200 Thousand Units                                                                                    Index        120


1100                                                                                                                110


1000                                                                                                                100


 900                                                                                                                90


 800                                                                                                                80


 700                                                                                                           70
    2001             2002             2003          2004    2005       2006   2007   2008   2009    2010   2011
                                               LV Sales (left scale)          Consumer Confidence

   Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                              39
Perspectivas del Mercado Mexicano
                    Units
1,400,000
                                   Used car imports and credit availability limit growth         30%
1,300,000

1,200,000                                                                                        20%

1,100,000                                                                                        10%
1,000,000
                                                                                                 0%
 900,000
                                                                                                 -10%
 800,000

 700,000                                                                                         -20%

 600,000                                                                                         -30%
                1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
                                             Light Veh -L                     Annual Change -R


  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                 40
Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros
       Millions
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
        2005                  2007                 2009   2011         2013   2015      2017      2019
            OTHER                              SUZUKI            MITSUBISHI   DAIMLER AG       RENAULT
            MAZDA                              HONDA             TOYOTA       CHRYSLER LLC     FORD
            VW GROUP                           GM                NISSAN


  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Perfil de Nuevos Productos
                        2010                         2011            2012              2013             2014         2015

                                                                 C2 Drop, Entry   Silverado, Sierra,              Captiva, SRX,
  GM                                               Sonic, 9-4
                                                                       CUV               Granite                    Anthem, 9-4



  VW                    Jetta                        Beetle      Beetle Cabrio                         Polo MQB    Jetta MQB



                                                                 Sentra, Note,
Nissan                                             Micra/Tiida
                                                                     NV200
                                                                                                       Frontier




 Ford                  Fiesta                                    Fusion, MKZ           B-CUV                         Fiesta



Chrysler                 500                       Freemont        Ram Van             B-CUV                        Journey



Toyota                                                                                Tacoma             Yaris



Honda                                                CR-V



Hyundai                                                                                                Accent


  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                          42
Argentina




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Sumario Economico Argentina
          Real GDP Growth (%)                                                Consumer Price Inflation (%)
 10                                                                     15
  8
    6                                                                   10
    4
                                                                         5
    2
    0                                                                    0
        2004         2006         2008           2010   2012    2014     2004       2006   2008   2010   2012    2014

          Exchange Rate per USD*                                             Current Account Balance**
 5.0                                                                    15
 4.5                                                                    10
 4.0
                                                                         5
 3.5
 3.0                                                                     0
 2.5                                                                    -5
   2004             2006          2008           2010    2012    2014        2004   2006   2008   2010   2012   2014

*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars


Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
PIB/Capita
        (US $ ,000)
18
16
14
12
10
 8
 6
 4
 2
 0
     1990                     1995                2000       2005         2010   2015   2020
                                                         GDP per Capita



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                            45
Cambio Monetario
        (LCU/US$)
7,0

6,0

5,0

4,0

3,0

2,0

1,0

0,0
      1990                     1995               2000   2005      2010   2015   2020
                                                         AP$/US$



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                     46
Inflacion
        (Percent)
30,0

25,0

20,0

15,0

10,0

 5,0

 0,0

-5,0
       1990                      1995             2000   2005   2010   2015   2020
                                                         CPI



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Balanza Comercial
          (US $ Billion)
20,0

15,0

10,0

 5,0

 0,0

 -5,0

-10,0
         1990                      1995           2000       2005        2010   2015   2020
                                                         Trade Balance



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                           48
Ventas: Promedio Mensual vs Indice de
 Confianza del Consumidor
           Thousand Units                                                                            Percent
90                                                                                                                  70

                                                                                                                    65
75
                                                                                                                    60
60
                                                                                                                    55

45                                                                                                                  50

                                                                                                                    45
30
                                                                                                                    40
15                                                       Consumer sentiment is
                                                         recovering… so are sales                                   35

 0                                                                                                                  30
  2003                  2004                2005      2006     2007     2008        2009      2010      2011
                                      LV Sales (left scale)       Consumer Sentiment (right scale)


     Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                            49
Ventas: Promedio Mensual vs
     Exportaciones
        Thousand Units                                                                             Billion US $
90                                                                                                                     8


75                                                                                                                     7

                                                                                                                       6
60
                                                                                                                       5
45
                                                                                                                       4
30
                                                                                                                       3

15                                                          Exports impact economic
                                                            momentum immediately                                       2

 0                                                                                                                     1
  2003                 2004                2005          2006          2007   2008     2009       2010     2011
                                               LV Sales (left scale)            Exports (Right)

     Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                               50
Mejores Inidicadores son Crecimiento
Economico, Poblacion/Demografia y Balanza
Comercial

                                                                                                    13.5

                                                                                                    13.0

                                                                                                    12.5
            .6

            .4                                                                                      12.0

            .2                                                                                      11.5
            .0
                                                                                                    11.0
          -.2

          -.4

          -.6

          -.8
                        1992           1994      1996   1998   2000   2002   2004     2006   2008

                                                    Residual     Actual      Fitted

Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                             51
Perspectivas del Mercado Argentino
                              Escenario positivo basado en exportaciones y credito
1,6
          Million Units                                                                                                        1,6

1,4                                                                                                                            1,4

1,2                                                                                                                            1,2

1,0                                                                                                                            1,0

0,8                                                                                                                            0,8

0,6                                                                                                                            0,6

0,4                                                                                                                            0,4

0,2                                                                                                                            0,2

0,0                                                                                                                            0,0
        1994        1996        1998         2000      2002   2004   2006    2008   2010   2012   2014   2016   2018   2020

                               Current Base                          Pessimistic (20%)              Optimistic (20%)

      Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                      52
Parque Automotor/Densidad

          Million Units                                                           Units per ‘000
18,00                                                                                              400,0
16,00                                                                                              350,0
14,00                                                                                              300,0
12,00
                                                                                                   250,0
10,00
                                                                                                   200,0
 8,00
                                                                                                   150,0
 6,00
 4,00                                                                                              100,0

 2,00                                                                                              50,0

 0,00                                                                                              0,0


                                                  Volume - L   Market Share - R



 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros
          Percentage
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%               Asians evolve
 0%
        2005                  2007                 2009     2011          2013         2015     2017     2019
  OTHER                    DAIMLER AG              CHERY        HYUNDAI          NISSAN       HONDA      TOYOTA
  FORD                     RENAULT                 FIAT GROUP   GM               PSA          VW GROUP



  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Comportamiento de Segmentos para Carros
  Pasajeros
           Percentage
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
                  No news is good news
30%
20%
10%
 0%
        2005                  2007                 2009        2011        2013        2015        2017    2019

       N/K            MPV-C                MPV-B          F1    E2    E1          D2   D1     C2      C1   B      A




  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Comportamiento de Segmentos para
  Comerciales Ligeros
           Percentage
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%               SUV-C is a segment buster

40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
        2005                  2007                 2009       2011           2013      2015          2017      2019

   SUV-E           SUV-D           SUV-C           SUV-B   PUP-D     PUP-C     PUP-B   N/K    MVAN     MPV-D   MIC    CDV




  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Produccion: Inversiones que Complementan
  el Crecimiento de MERCOSUR
1,60 Million Units

1,40
           • Capacity is 1 million
           • Honda has only new
1,20
           plant (Campana)
1,00

0,80

0,60

0,40

0,20

0,00
       1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
                Light Vehicle Production            Capacity   OPTIMISTIC   PESSIMISTIC



   Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                         57
Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen
                                                2010                                                  2010
                                   Local      Imp.      Total                            Local      Imp.       Total
        A-Segment Car                       0    16,890     16,890    B-Segment Car         129,449 203,833 333,282
        A-Segment LCV                       0         0          0    B-Segment LCV               0      7,562       7,562
        A-Segment MPV                       0         0          0    B-Segment MPV               0      9,291       9,291
        A-Segment Pickup                    0         0          0    B-Segment Pickup            0      7,858       7,858
        A-Segment SUV                       0         0          0    B-Segment SUV               0    21,596      21,596
               TOTAL                        0    16,890     16,890           TOTAL          129,449 250,140 379,589
                    %                    0.0% 100.0%                           %              34.1%     65.9%

                                Segmento A                                               Segmento B

                                                 2010                                                 2010
                                   Local       Imp.      Total                           Local      Imp.       Total
        C-Segment Car                  31,812     61,342     93,154   D-Segment Car              13    10,546      10,559
        C-Segment LCV                  28,807          0     28,807   D-Segment LCV               0        214         214
        C-Segment MPV                    2,098    12,483     14,581   D-Segment MPV               0      4,302       4,302
        C-Segment Pickup                     0         0          0   D-Segment Pickup            0          0           0
        C-Segment SUV                        0    13,829     13,829   D-Segment SUV               0      7,627       7,627
               TOTAL                   62,717     87,654 150,371             TOTAL               13    22,689      22,702
                    %                   41.7%      58.3%                       %               0.1%     99.9%

                                Segmento C                                               Segmento D

Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                               58
Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen
                                                   2010                                                     2010
                                   Local         Imp.       Total                             Local       Imp.       Total
        CompactFF Car                        0          0            0   FullSizeFF Car               0          0               0
        CompactFF LCV                        0      2,077        2,077   FullSizeFF LCV           3,105      4,063           7,168
        CompactFF MPV                        0          0            0   FullSizeFF MPV               0          0               0
        CompactFF Pickup                38,232     12,379       50,611   FullSizeFF Pickup            0      2,581           2,581
        CompactFF SUV                    2,017        789        2,806   FullSizeFF SUV               0          0               0
                  TOTAL                 40,249     15,245       55,494            TOTAL           3,105      6,644           9,749
                    %                    72.5%      27.5%                         %               31.8%      68.2%

                             Compact BOF                                                     Fullsize BOF




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                       59
Argentina Scorecard
Pluses:                                            Minuses:
• Economia en repunte                              • Inflacion
                                                   • Confianza del Consumidor
• Financiamiento
                                                   • Elecciones
• Commodities
                                                   • Cambio de Moneda (Importados)
• Mayor exportador de oro                          • Demografias
• Estabilizacion de Finanzas Publicas              • Crecimiento de la Poblacion
• Infraestructura (Energia)                        • Motorizacion
• Empleo                                           • Dependencia en commodities

• Cambio de moneda (Exportaciones)
• Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria
• Nueva gama de productos
• Inversion de las terminales




  Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                     60
Muchas Gracias por vuestra
atencion!
  Guido Vildozo
  Manager, Latin America
  Junio 17, 2011
  guido.vildozo@ihs.com




Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   61

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Latin america light vehicle outlook

  • 1. Latin America— Light Vehicle Outlook Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America Junio 17, 2011
  • 2. Agenda • Economia Global • Perspectiva Regional • Brazil • Mexico • Argentina • Resumen Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 3. La Recuperacion Global Desacelera (Percent change) 10 5 0 -5 -10 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Real GDP Industrial Production Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 4. Los Mercados Emergentes Lideran la Expansion Global (Real GDP, percent change) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 World Advanced Countries Emerging Markets Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 5. Precios de Materiales Industriales (IHS Global Insight indexes, 2002:1=1) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 All Materials Chemicals Nonferrous Metals Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
  • 6. Consumo Chino de Commodities (Percent of total world consumption) Cement Iron Ore Coal Pigs Steel Lead Zinc Aluminum Copper Eggs Nickel Rice Soybeans Wheat Chickens PPP Oil Cattle GDP 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Barclays Capital (2010), Credit Suisse (2010), Goldman Sachs, US Geological Survey (2009), BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2009), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (2008), IMF (2010) Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 7. Ventas Globales 100 15% Global Change 90 Year-Over-Year Change 80 10% Sales in Millions 70 60 5% Year Change 50 40 0% 30 20 -5% 10 0 -10% 2008 2009 2010 Apr Apr 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 YTD • Las ventas globales en los primeros 4 meses del ano crecieron 5.4% sobre el 2010. Vemos ya una desaceleracion apartir del mes de Marzo con 2.6% de crecimiento annual y 1.8% para el mes de Abril. • Anticipamos 76 millones para este ano, un 5.5% de crecimiento comparado al 2010. Esto despues de reducir 600,000 unidades reflejando el impacto de Japon. Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 8. Ventas Globales 2011 76.1 78 428,000 Million 1.72 652,000 282,000 119,000 245,000 1.2 Million -118,000 74 72.2 Million -610,000 Sales in Millions Million 70 +5.5% 66 64 Million 62 58 2009 2010 North Greater South South Japan/ Middle Others Central/ West 2011 America China Asia America Korea East/ East Europe Africa Europe Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 9. Produccion Global 100 30% Global Change 90 25% Year-Over-Year Change Production in Millions 80 20% 70 15% 60 10% Year Change 50 5% 40 0% 30 20 -5% 10 -10% 0 -15% 2008 2009 2010 Apr Apr 2011 2Q 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 YTD 2011 • Los desastres naturales en Japon durante el mes de Marzo han impactado los volumenes de produccion del mes de Abril. Solo Japon registro una caida del 70% contra el 2010. El impacto seria mayor de no ser por el solido performance de MERCOSUR y China. Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 10. Impacto en produccion Global en pronostico de Junio comparado a Marzo actualizado al 26 de Mayo, 2011 (000‘s) Total—All OEMs 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 Foregone Volume Japan (488) (1,106) (463) 2 400 632 492 530 Korea 0 (11) 1 10 0 0 0 0 China (1) (339) 0 90 148 35 0 67 SE Asia (3) (277) (49) 129 201 0 0 0 NA (11) (456) (41) 82 225 163 0 37 Europe (16) (215) (36) 104 153 12 0 0 Other (1) (26) (22) 13 34 0 0 0 Total LV (518) (2,430) (610) 430 1,161 842 492 635 Negative volumes are lost production Positive volumes are recovered production Foregone volume due to demand destruction and lost Japan OEM market share Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 11. Perspectiva Regional Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 12. America Latina –PIB 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 - - - - - - - Country/Five-year period 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 Argentina 6.0 2.6 2.0 6.6 4.4 4.0 3.8 Brazil 3.1 2.0 2.8 4.4 5.2 4.9 4.7 Chile 8.7 4.2 4.2 3.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 Colombia 4.6 0.9 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.7 4.5 Costa Rica 5.5 4.9 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.4 Ecuador 3.4 0.4 5.2 3.3 1.9 3.1 2.5 Mexico 1.8 5.4 1.5 1.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 Peru 5.5 2.5 4.2 7.2 5.7 5.1 4.6 Uruguay 3.9 2.2 0.2 6.3 4.0 3.3 3.3 Venezuela 3.4 0.7 2.5 3.4 3.2 3.9 3.4 Latin America & Caribbean 3.4 3.0 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 13. America Latina –Poblacion 1991- 2006- 2011- 2021- (Millions of persons) 95 10 15 25 Argentina 33.9 39.9 41.8 45.3 Brazil 156.9 191.9 200.0 212.0 Chile 13.9 16.8 17.6 18.9 Colombia 35.2 45.0 48.2 53.9 Costa Rica 3.3 4.5 4.8 5.4 Ecuador 11.0 13.5 14.3 15.8 Mexico 87.2 108.5 113.6 121.9 Peru 23.1 28.8 30.5 33.9 Uruguay 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 Venezuela 21.3 28.3 30.6 34.7 Latin America & Caribbean 465.0 575.7 606.4 659.7 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 14. Venta Regional por Pais -Volumen 10,0 10,0 Millones 9,0 9,0 VEN URY 8,0 8,0 PER 7,0 7,0 PAY 6,0 6,0 ECU COL 5,0 5,0 CHL 4,0 4,0 BRA BOL 3,0 3,0 ARG 2,0 2,0 OPTIMISTIC 1,0 1,0 PESSIMISTIC 0,0 0,0 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
  • 15. Produccion Regional por Pais -Volumen 9,0 9,0 Millones 8,0 8,0 VEN 7,0 7,0 URY 6,0 6,0 PER ECU 5,0 5,0 COL CHL 4,0 4,0 BRA 3,0 3,0 ARG OPTIMISTIC 2,0 2,0 PESSIMISTIC 1,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
  • 16. Brazil Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 17. Sumario Economico Brazil Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%) 8 7 6 6 4 5 2 0 4 -2 3 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Exchange Rate per USD* Current Account Balance** 3.0 20 0 2.5 -20 2.0 -40 1.5 -60 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 18. PIB/Capita (US $ ,000) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP per Capita Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18
  • 19. Cambio Monetario (LCU/US$) 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 R$/US$ Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
  • 20. SELIC – Tasas a Corto Plazo (Percent) 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 SELIC Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
  • 21. Tasa de Desempleo (Percent) 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Unemployment Rate Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
  • 22. Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Indice de Empleo 350 Thousand Units 110 300 Employment remains 100 favourable 250 90 200 80 150 70 100 50 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LV Sales (left scale) Employment Index (right scale) Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
  • 23. Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Tasas de Financiamiento 350 Thousand Units Percent 20 Financing is a major driver, rates uncertain 25 300 30 250 35 200 40 45 150 50 100 55 50 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LV Sales (left scale) APR Financing (right scale) Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
  • 24. Impacto Historico de Empleo, Poblacion/Demografia y Tasas de Financiamiento en Brazil 15.2 14.8 14.4 .3 14.0 .2 13.6 .1 .0 13.2 -.1 -.2 -.3 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Residual Actual Fitted Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
  • 25. Perspectivas del Mercado Brasilero Futuro promisorio gracias a credito y precios mas bajos 8,0 Million Units 8,0 7,0 7,0 6,0 6,0 5,0 5,0 4,0 4,0 3,0 3,0 2,0 2,0 1,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%) Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25
  • 26. Parque Automotor/Densidad Million Units Units per ‘000 70,00 300,0 60,00 250,0 50,00 200,0 40,00 150,0 30,00 100,0 20,00 10,00 50,0 0,00 0,0 Volume - L Market Share - R Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 27. Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros Percentage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Big four continue to loose 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 OTHER CHERY NISSAN MITSUBISHI TOYOTA RENAULT HYUNDAI HONDA PSA FORD GM VW GROUP FIAT GROUP Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 28. Inversion de la Industria Automotriz 6000 US$ Millions 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Investment OEMs Investment Suppliers Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 29. Produccion: Inversiones Para Atender Demanda de los proximos Diez Anos 7,50 Million Units 6,50 • 5 MM para el 2015 • Cuatro plantas nuevas: Hyundai, Toyota, Chery, 5,50 Fiat 4,50 3,50 2,50 1,50 0,50 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Light Vehicle Production Capacity OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
  • 30. Perfil de Nuevos Productos (Regionales) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sienna, Weekend, Fiat Strada 4 Uno, Bravo Palio Strada City Car (Topolino) Uno, Punto, Linea Up, Saveiro, VW Saveiro, Fox Amarok Gol, Voyage, Fox Parati/Polo SUV Polo (Mex) S-10; Blazer; Aveo, GM Agile Montana Cruze GSV MPV, Spark Sedan Agile Spark Fiesta, Fiesta 299 Ecosport, Fiesta Ranger; Focus Ford (MEX) HBA 299 Courier Drop Ka Hoggar, C3 PSA Picasso; 408 308 C3, 208 208 PUP EM CAR Renault Fluence Duster; Kangoo Micra from MEX? Sandero Logan Toyota Etios Corolla Hilux, Hilux SW4 Honda City Civic Brio Fit, City Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
  • 31. Brazil Scorecard Positivo: Riesgos: • Estabilidad Economica • Capacidad Ociosa en plantas • Falta de Capacidad del Sector • Inversion Directa Extranjera Autopartista • Empleo • Infraestructura Ineficiente • Financiamiento • Cambio de Moneda (Exportaciones) • Rentabilidad/Lucratividad • Precio de Vehiculos Nuevos • Hasta 84 Meses • Riesgo de Credito Privado/PIB • Reduccion de Tasas • Crecimiento Salarial vs Inflacion • Congestion Vehicular • Cambio de Moneda (Importados) • Dependencia en commodities • Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria • PIB per Capita • Baja Densidad de Motorizacion • Producto Nuevo • Inversion de la Industria Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
  • 32. Mexico Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 33. Sumario Economico Mexico Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%) 10 5.5 5 5.0 0 4.5 -5 4.0 -10 3.5 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Exchange Rate per USD* Current Account Balance** 14 0 13 -5 12 -10 11 -15 10 -20 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 34. PIB/Capita (US $ ,000) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP per Capita Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
  • 35. Cambio Monetario (LCU/US$) 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 MP$/US$ Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
  • 36. CETES – Tasas a Corto Plazo (Percent) 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 CETES Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36
  • 37. Tasa de Desempleo (Percent) 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Unemployment Rate Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37
  • 38. Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs. Fondos Para Creditos Durables Billion Pesos 1200 Thousand Units 100,00 1150 90,00 1100 80,00 Credit is limiting momentum 1050 70,00 1000 60,00 950 50,00 900 40,00 850 30,00 800 20,00 750 10,00 700 0,00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LV Sales (left scale) Credit Durable Goods Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38
  • 39. Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs. Indice de Confianza del Consumidor 1200 Thousand Units Index 120 1100 110 1000 100 900 90 800 80 700 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Confidence Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39
  • 40. Perspectivas del Mercado Mexicano Units 1,400,000 Used car imports and credit availability limit growth 30% 1,300,000 1,200,000 20% 1,100,000 10% 1,000,000 0% 900,000 -10% 800,000 700,000 -20% 600,000 -30% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Light Veh -L Annual Change -R Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40
  • 41. Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros Millions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 OTHER SUZUKI MITSUBISHI DAIMLER AG RENAULT MAZDA HONDA TOYOTA CHRYSLER LLC FORD VW GROUP GM NISSAN Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 42. Perfil de Nuevos Productos 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 C2 Drop, Entry Silverado, Sierra, Captiva, SRX, GM Sonic, 9-4 CUV Granite Anthem, 9-4 VW Jetta Beetle Beetle Cabrio Polo MQB Jetta MQB Sentra, Note, Nissan Micra/Tiida NV200 Frontier Ford Fiesta Fusion, MKZ B-CUV Fiesta Chrysler 500 Freemont Ram Van B-CUV Journey Toyota Tacoma Yaris Honda CR-V Hyundai Accent Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 42
  • 43. Argentina Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 44. Sumario Economico Argentina Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%) 10 15 8 6 10 4 5 2 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Exchange Rate per USD* Current Account Balance** 5.0 15 4.5 10 4.0 5 3.5 3.0 0 2.5 -5 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 45. PIB/Capita (US $ ,000) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP per Capita Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 45
  • 46. Cambio Monetario (LCU/US$) 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 AP$/US$ Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 46
  • 47. Inflacion (Percent) 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 -5,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 CPI Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 47
  • 48. Balanza Comercial (US $ Billion) 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 -5,0 -10,0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Trade Balance Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 48
  • 49. Ventas: Promedio Mensual vs Indice de Confianza del Consumidor Thousand Units Percent 90 70 65 75 60 60 55 45 50 45 30 40 15 Consumer sentiment is recovering… so are sales 35 0 30 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Sentiment (right scale) Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 49
  • 50. Ventas: Promedio Mensual vs Exportaciones Thousand Units Billion US $ 90 8 75 7 6 60 5 45 4 30 3 15 Exports impact economic momentum immediately 2 0 1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LV Sales (left scale) Exports (Right) Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 50
  • 51. Mejores Inidicadores son Crecimiento Economico, Poblacion/Demografia y Balanza Comercial 13.5 13.0 12.5 .6 .4 12.0 .2 11.5 .0 11.0 -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Residual Actual Fitted Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 51
  • 52. Perspectivas del Mercado Argentino Escenario positivo basado en exportaciones y credito 1,6 Million Units 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,2 1,2 1,0 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,6 0,6 0,4 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%) Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 52
  • 53. Parque Automotor/Densidad Million Units Units per ‘000 18,00 400,0 16,00 350,0 14,00 300,0 12,00 250,0 10,00 200,0 8,00 150,0 6,00 4,00 100,0 2,00 50,0 0,00 0,0 Volume - L Market Share - R Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 54. Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros Percentage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Asians evolve 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 OTHER DAIMLER AG CHERY HYUNDAI NISSAN HONDA TOYOTA FORD RENAULT FIAT GROUP GM PSA VW GROUP Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 55. Comportamiento de Segmentos para Carros Pasajeros Percentage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% No news is good news 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 N/K MPV-C MPV-B F1 E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B A Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 56. Comportamiento de Segmentos para Comerciales Ligeros Percentage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% SUV-C is a segment buster 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 SUV-E SUV-D SUV-C SUV-B PUP-D PUP-C PUP-B N/K MVAN MPV-D MIC CDV Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 57. Produccion: Inversiones que Complementan el Crecimiento de MERCOSUR 1,60 Million Units 1,40 • Capacity is 1 million • Honda has only new 1,20 plant (Campana) 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Light Vehicle Production Capacity OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 57
  • 58. Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen 2010 2010 Local Imp. Total Local Imp. Total A-Segment Car 0 16,890 16,890 B-Segment Car 129,449 203,833 333,282 A-Segment LCV 0 0 0 B-Segment LCV 0 7,562 7,562 A-Segment MPV 0 0 0 B-Segment MPV 0 9,291 9,291 A-Segment Pickup 0 0 0 B-Segment Pickup 0 7,858 7,858 A-Segment SUV 0 0 0 B-Segment SUV 0 21,596 21,596 TOTAL 0 16,890 16,890 TOTAL 129,449 250,140 379,589 % 0.0% 100.0% % 34.1% 65.9% Segmento A Segmento B 2010 2010 Local Imp. Total Local Imp. Total C-Segment Car 31,812 61,342 93,154 D-Segment Car 13 10,546 10,559 C-Segment LCV 28,807 0 28,807 D-Segment LCV 0 214 214 C-Segment MPV 2,098 12,483 14,581 D-Segment MPV 0 4,302 4,302 C-Segment Pickup 0 0 0 D-Segment Pickup 0 0 0 C-Segment SUV 0 13,829 13,829 D-Segment SUV 0 7,627 7,627 TOTAL 62,717 87,654 150,371 TOTAL 13 22,689 22,702 % 41.7% 58.3% % 0.1% 99.9% Segmento C Segmento D Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 58
  • 59. Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen 2010 2010 Local Imp. Total Local Imp. Total CompactFF Car 0 0 0 FullSizeFF Car 0 0 0 CompactFF LCV 0 2,077 2,077 FullSizeFF LCV 3,105 4,063 7,168 CompactFF MPV 0 0 0 FullSizeFF MPV 0 0 0 CompactFF Pickup 38,232 12,379 50,611 FullSizeFF Pickup 0 2,581 2,581 CompactFF SUV 2,017 789 2,806 FullSizeFF SUV 0 0 0 TOTAL 40,249 15,245 55,494 TOTAL 3,105 6,644 9,749 % 72.5% 27.5% % 31.8% 68.2% Compact BOF Fullsize BOF Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 59
  • 60. Argentina Scorecard Pluses: Minuses: • Economia en repunte • Inflacion • Confianza del Consumidor • Financiamiento • Elecciones • Commodities • Cambio de Moneda (Importados) • Mayor exportador de oro • Demografias • Estabilizacion de Finanzas Publicas • Crecimiento de la Poblacion • Infraestructura (Energia) • Motorizacion • Empleo • Dependencia en commodities • Cambio de moneda (Exportaciones) • Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria • Nueva gama de productos • Inversion de las terminales Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 60
  • 61. Muchas Gracias por vuestra atencion! Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America Junio 17, 2011 guido.vildozo@ihs.com Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 61