SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 11
The Beer Game
More about production and decision-making,
Less about consumption……
Presented By : Group 8, Sales and Distribution Management, IIM Kozhikode
|Pranav Koundinya| |Payal Sachan| |Pathsamatla Sraavya| |Arjun Kemmu| |Karidi Sidhartha|
The Market
4 4 4 4 4
6 6 6
8 8 8 8
6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
The Market
Mean 5.12
Median 4
Mode 4
Standard Deviation 1.53622915
Sample Variance 2.36
Kurtosis -0.509030956
Skewness 0.981453618
Range 4
Minimum 4
Maximum 8
Confidence Level(95.0%) 0.634124226
The receiver of market
information
RETAILER
The first point of contact
for market information
WHOLESALER
The factory-contact for
production information
DISTRIBUTOR
The manufacturer who
receives information, the last
FACTORY
6
4
4 1 0
Week 1
Week 3 Week 5
Week 7
Information Flow
Week 1
Week 1Week 3Week 5Week 7
Goods Flow
6600
Retailer Wholesaler
Factory Distributor
Psyche of
the Human
4 4 4 4 4
6 6 6
8 8 8 8
6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
6
0 0 0
2
6
2
6
8
6
10
6
4
6
10
4
6
4 4
6
4
6
4
6
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Incoming Order
Order Placed
6 6 6
0 0 0
2
6
2
6
8
6
10
6
4
6
10
4
6
4 4
6 6 6
4
6
4 4
2
0 0 0 0
2 2
6 6 6 6 6
8 8
10
6 6 6
4 4 4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Incoming Order
Order Placed
6 6 6
4 4
2
0 0 0 0
2 2
6 6 6 6 6
8 8
10
6 6 6 6
4
3
6
3
5
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8
15
8
6
0
4
6
8
6
10
8
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Incoming Order
Order Placed
6 6
3
6
3
5
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8
15
8
6
0
4
6
8
6
10
2 2
3
0
7
12
0
2
0 0 0 0 0 0
5 5 5
0
5
8 8 8
6 6 6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Incoming Order
Order Placed
Need to avoid Stock-Out Need to maintain lower
inventory
Need to maintain lower
inventory
Need to avoid under-
production
4 4 4 4 4
6 6 6
8 8 8 8
6 6 6
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
6 6 6
0 0 0
2
6
2
6
8
6
10
6
4
6
10
4
6
4 4
6 6 6
4
6 6 6
4 4
2
0 0 0 0
2 2
6 6 6 6 6
8 8
10
6 6 6 6
4
6 6
3
6
3
5
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8
15
8
6
0
4
6
8
6
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory
Factory has
the biggest
incoming
order
The next
biggest order
is to the
distributor
Wholesaler is
also pressured
with bigger
orders
Evidence of Bull-Whip Effect
Incoming Orders
14
16
18
20
22
16
10
4
-2
-4
-10
-12
-10 -10 -10
-12
-10
-4
-6 -6
-10
-6
-2
0 0
12 12 12
18
24
28
30
26
24
18
10
4 4
-4
2 2
-6
-8 -8
-4
0
4 4 4 4
12 12 12
14
13
17
20
25
26 26
24
22
16
10
4
-2
-6
-2
7
5
4
-2
-4 -4
0
12 12
15
11
8
6
5
12
24 24
26 26 26 26 26
18
3
0
-1
5
1
0 0
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory
Evidence of Bull-Whip Effect Factory
suffered highest
inventory for
long periods
Retailer was
most affected
by stock-outs
Inventory
Performance
14
16
18
20
22
16
10
4 4
8
20
24
20 20 20
24
20
8
12 12
20
12
4
0 0
12 12 12
18
24
28
30
26
24
18
10
4
10
14 14
2
18
16 16
8
0
4 4 4 4
12 12 12
14
13
17
20
25
26 26
24
22
16
10
4 4
12
4
7
5
4 4
8 8
0
12 12
15
11
8
6
5
12
24 24
26 26 26 26 26
18
3
0
2
5
1
0 0
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory
Cost
Cost – Performance of stages
Week 5 – 9 : Retailer
Wholesaler and
Distributor reduced their
costs, causing factory
inventory to pile up
What clicked for Group 8 ?
Over ordering due to
fear of stock-outs
avoided
The team suffered severe stock-
outs which added to cost but
saved on the cost due to over
ordering that could have
multiplied
Bull-whip effect
reduced by ordering
‘Just-Enough’
The Maximum order(10) in the
Retailer stage was 2 Standard
Deviations(2.06) from the
mean(5.12)
Zero Stock Out
Performance of Factory
A Stock out in the factory would
have caused a further 2 week
delay down the chain and been
catastrophic for all stages
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 10 20 30
6 6 6
0 0 0
2
6
2
6
8
6
10
6
4
6
10
4
6
4 4
6 6 6
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
What did not click for Group 8 ?
Unprecedented
Pressure on Factory
The Factory underwent long
periods of heavy inventory was
almost pushed to a stock-out at
the end!
Batch Ordering
The retailer, in anticipation of
smaller/bigger orders started
ordering Zeros followed by huge
quantities!
Severe Stock-outs
A stock out here has just twice
the cost of inventory, however in
a real scenario the cost of losing
a customer may be much higher
14
16
18
20
22
16
10
4
-2
-4
-10
-12
-10-10-10
-12
-10
-4
-6 -6
-10
-6
-2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425
6 6 6
0 0 0
2
6
2
6
8
6
10
6
4
6
10
4
6
4 4
6 6 6
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425
1212
15
11
8
6 5
12
2424
2626262626
18
3
0 -1
5
1 0 0
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425
Cost Breakup
348, 27%
332, 26%
309, 24%
290, 23%
Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory
120
228
Retailer
Inventory Stock-Outs
252
80
Wholesaler
Inventory Stock-Outs
252
80
Wholesaler
Inventory Stock-Outs
288
2
Factory
Inventory Stock-Outs
Total Cost = 1279 Units
Major Problems What IF ? ….
High Inventory Levels
Low Service Levels (Stock-Outs)
High Cost
Demand Fluctuations
We could bring the market
data directly to the factory
Introduce
consumer
bidding for
future
consumption
Maintain constant
inventory and order
levels among all stages
(except factory)
Develop a
separate channel
for spike orders
fulfilled directly
from factory
IS THIS WHAT THE
E-COMMERCE GIANTS
ARE DOING???

More Related Content

What's hot

Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...
Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...
Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...FaHaD .H. NooR
 
Supply Chain Management
Supply Chain ManagementSupply Chain Management
Supply Chain ManagementEdureka!
 
Purchasing and Supply Management
Purchasing and Supply ManagementPurchasing and Supply Management
Purchasing and Supply ManagementZamri Yahya
 
Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier Group
Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier GroupBullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier Group
Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier GroupKrishna Raj
 
Sports obermeyer case
Sports obermeyer caseSports obermeyer case
Sports obermeyer caseSaurabh Arora
 
Bullwhip effect ppt
Bullwhip effect pptBullwhip effect ppt
Bullwhip effect pptpulak126
 
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) Overview
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) OverviewSales and Operations Planning (S&OP) Overview
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) OverviewMichael Ryan
 
Basics of Supply Chain Management
Basics of Supply Chain ManagementBasics of Supply Chain Management
Basics of Supply Chain Managementvip1233
 
Supply Chain Planning and SAP APO Overview
Supply Chain Planning and SAP APO OverviewSupply Chain Planning and SAP APO Overview
Supply Chain Planning and SAP APO OverviewSap Ides
 
Supply chain management
Supply chain managementSupply chain management
Supply chain managementUPENDRA '
 
Introduction to supply chain management
Introduction to supply chain managementIntroduction to supply chain management
Introduction to supply chain managementPradeep Biradar
 
Strategic Purchasing Supply Initiatives
Strategic Purchasing Supply InitiativesStrategic Purchasing Supply Initiatives
Strategic Purchasing Supply Initiativesignasuhe
 
Supply chain mngt
Supply chain mngtSupply chain mngt
Supply chain mngthas10nas
 

What's hot (20)

01a Bullwhip Effect
01a Bullwhip Effect01a Bullwhip Effect
01a Bullwhip Effect
 
Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...
Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...
Purchasing mangement - Puchasing Process - Make Or Buy Decisions - Supplier S...
 
Supply Chain Management
Supply Chain ManagementSupply Chain Management
Supply Chain Management
 
Purchasing and Supply Management
Purchasing and Supply ManagementPurchasing and Supply Management
Purchasing and Supply Management
 
The "Bullwhip" Effect
The "Bullwhip" EffectThe "Bullwhip" Effect
The "Bullwhip" Effect
 
Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier Group
Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier GroupBullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier Group
Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chain - Haier Group
 
Sports obermeyer case
Sports obermeyer caseSports obermeyer case
Sports obermeyer case
 
Supply Chain Management
Supply Chain ManagementSupply Chain Management
Supply Chain Management
 
Bullwhip effect ppt
Bullwhip effect pptBullwhip effect ppt
Bullwhip effect ppt
 
Strategic sourcing
Strategic sourcingStrategic sourcing
Strategic sourcing
 
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) Overview
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) OverviewSales and Operations Planning (S&OP) Overview
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) Overview
 
Basics of Supply Chain Management
Basics of Supply Chain ManagementBasics of Supply Chain Management
Basics of Supply Chain Management
 
Supply Chain Planning and SAP APO Overview
Supply Chain Planning and SAP APO OverviewSupply Chain Planning and SAP APO Overview
Supply Chain Planning and SAP APO Overview
 
S&OP Process
S&OP ProcessS&OP Process
S&OP Process
 
Supply chain management
Supply chain managementSupply chain management
Supply chain management
 
Bullwhip effect ch3
Bullwhip effect ch3Bullwhip effect ch3
Bullwhip effect ch3
 
MRP and ERP
MRP and ERPMRP and ERP
MRP and ERP
 
Introduction to supply chain management
Introduction to supply chain managementIntroduction to supply chain management
Introduction to supply chain management
 
Strategic Purchasing Supply Initiatives
Strategic Purchasing Supply InitiativesStrategic Purchasing Supply Initiatives
Strategic Purchasing Supply Initiatives
 
Supply chain mngt
Supply chain mngtSupply chain mngt
Supply chain mngt
 

Similar to The Beer Game: Production Decisions and Bullwhip Effect

Schulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlights
Schulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlightsSchulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlights
Schulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlightsMike Doherty
 
OMP presentation
OMP presentationOMP presentation
OMP presentationbuhle keto
 
Jan Casteels - Duracell
Jan Casteels - DuracellJan Casteels - Duracell
Jan Casteels - DuracellFDMagazine
 
LKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek Rusilko
LKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek RusilkoLKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek Rusilko
LKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek RusilkoLean Kanban Central Europe
 
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven PracticesOrganisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven PracticesBarry Magee
 
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven PracticesOrganisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven PracticesBarry Magee
 
Retail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analytics
Retail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analyticsRetail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analytics
Retail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analyticsRichard Jo
 
Supply chain simulation for Managers
Supply chain simulation for ManagersSupply chain simulation for Managers
Supply chain simulation for ManagersGuennoun Wajih
 
OpenSky - Lean
OpenSky - LeanOpenSky - Lean
OpenSky - LeanRita Lokre
 
How to determine a startup’s cash needs
How to determine a startup’s cash needsHow to determine a startup’s cash needs
How to determine a startup’s cash needsBlake Rogers
 
Regional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback Example
Regional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback ExampleRegional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback Example
Regional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback ExampleNico-Ed Jacobs
 
Informe mensual diciembre 2020
Informe mensual diciembre 2020Informe mensual diciembre 2020
Informe mensual diciembre 2020JorgeElias50
 
Discussions Soda Game.pptx
Discussions Soda Game.pptxDiscussions Soda Game.pptx
Discussions Soda Game.pptxAdeMuhammad10
 
Relacion de personal y equipos semanal
Relacion de personal y equipos semanalRelacion de personal y equipos semanal
Relacion de personal y equipos semanalAresi2016
 
Taxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic Laws
Taxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic LawsTaxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic Laws
Taxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic LawsTaxmann
 
Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3
Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3
Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3Lauren Telford
 

Similar to The Beer Game: Production Decisions and Bullwhip Effect (20)

Schulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlights
Schulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlightsSchulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlights
Schulich leading practices - flowcasting session highlights
 
Master Budget
Master Budget Master Budget
Master Budget
 
Planta
PlantaPlanta
Planta
 
OMP presentation
OMP presentationOMP presentation
OMP presentation
 
Jan Casteels - Duracell
Jan Casteels - DuracellJan Casteels - Duracell
Jan Casteels - Duracell
 
LKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek Rusilko
LKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek RusilkoLKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek Rusilko
LKCE16 - Estimation made easy by Pawel Brodzinski and Tomek Rusilko
 
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven PracticesOrganisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
 
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven PracticesOrganisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
Organisational Transformation with Data-Driven Practices
 
Retail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analytics
Retail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analyticsRetail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analytics
Retail analytics ASIA workshop_ New perspective on GfK retail analytics
 
Supply chain simulation for Managers
Supply chain simulation for ManagersSupply chain simulation for Managers
Supply chain simulation for Managers
 
Forecasting Assignment Help
Forecasting Assignment HelpForecasting Assignment Help
Forecasting Assignment Help
 
OpenSky - Lean
OpenSky - LeanOpenSky - Lean
OpenSky - Lean
 
How to determine a startup’s cash needs
How to determine a startup’s cash needsHow to determine a startup’s cash needs
How to determine a startup’s cash needs
 
FinalPresentation
FinalPresentationFinalPresentation
FinalPresentation
 
Regional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback Example
Regional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback ExampleRegional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback Example
Regional Expenses, Sales & Stock Loss Feedback Example
 
Informe mensual diciembre 2020
Informe mensual diciembre 2020Informe mensual diciembre 2020
Informe mensual diciembre 2020
 
Discussions Soda Game.pptx
Discussions Soda Game.pptxDiscussions Soda Game.pptx
Discussions Soda Game.pptx
 
Relacion de personal y equipos semanal
Relacion de personal y equipos semanalRelacion de personal y equipos semanal
Relacion de personal y equipos semanal
 
Taxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic Laws
Taxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic LawsTaxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic Laws
Taxmann's CRACKER | Corporate & Economic Laws
 
Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3
Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3
Andrews Inc Board Meeting #2 v3
 

Recently uploaded

A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMANA DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMANIlamathiKannappan
 
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptxCracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptxWorkforce Group
 
A305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdf
A305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdfA305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdf
A305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdftbatkhuu1
 
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Roland Driesen
 
9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 Delhi
9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 Delhi9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 Delhi
9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 DelhiCall Girls in Delhi
 
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan CommunicationsPharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communicationskarancommunications
 
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdfGrateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdfPaul Menig
 
Value Proposition canvas- Customer needs and pains
Value Proposition canvas- Customer needs and painsValue Proposition canvas- Customer needs and pains
Value Proposition canvas- Customer needs and painsP&CO
 
VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...
VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...
VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...Suhani Kapoor
 
Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...
Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...
Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...lizamodels9
 
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...amitlee9823
 
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLMONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLSeo
 
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableCall Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableDipal Arora
 
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779Delhi Call girls
 
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room ServiceCall Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Servicediscovermytutordmt
 
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st CenturyFamous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Centuryrwgiffor
 
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors DataRSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors DataExhibitors Data
 
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMMonte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMRavindra Nath Shukla
 
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...anilsa9823
 

Recently uploaded (20)

A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMANA DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
 
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptxCracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
 
Forklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
Forklift Operations: Safety through CartoonsForklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
Forklift Operations: Safety through Cartoons
 
A305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdf
A305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdfA305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdf
A305_A2_file_Batkhuu progress report.pdf
 
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
 
9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 Delhi
9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 Delhi9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 Delhi
9599632723 Top Call Girls in Delhi at your Door Step Available 24x7 Delhi
 
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan CommunicationsPharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
Pharma Works Profile of Karan Communications
 
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdfGrateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
 
Value Proposition canvas- Customer needs and pains
Value Proposition canvas- Customer needs and painsValue Proposition canvas- Customer needs and pains
Value Proposition canvas- Customer needs and pains
 
VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...
VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...
VIP Call Girls Gandi Maisamma ( Hyderabad ) Phone 8250192130 | ₹5k To 25k Wit...
 
Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...
Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...
Call Girls In Holiday Inn Express Gurugram➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genu...
 
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
Call Girls Jp Nagar Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Bang...
 
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLMONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
 
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableCall Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
 
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779
Best VIP Call Girls Noida Sector 40 Call Me: 8448380779
 
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room ServiceCall Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116  - With room Service
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Service
 
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st CenturyFamous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
 
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors DataRSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
 
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMMonte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
 
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
 

The Beer Game: Production Decisions and Bullwhip Effect

  • 1. The Beer Game More about production and decision-making, Less about consumption…… Presented By : Group 8, Sales and Distribution Management, IIM Kozhikode |Pranav Koundinya| |Payal Sachan| |Pathsamatla Sraavya| |Arjun Kemmu| |Karidi Sidhartha|
  • 2. The Market 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 The Market Mean 5.12 Median 4 Mode 4 Standard Deviation 1.53622915 Sample Variance 2.36 Kurtosis -0.509030956 Skewness 0.981453618 Range 4 Minimum 4 Maximum 8 Confidence Level(95.0%) 0.634124226
  • 3. The receiver of market information RETAILER The first point of contact for market information WHOLESALER The factory-contact for production information DISTRIBUTOR The manufacturer who receives information, the last FACTORY 6 4 4 1 0 Week 1 Week 3 Week 5 Week 7 Information Flow Week 1 Week 1Week 3Week 5Week 7 Goods Flow 6600
  • 4. Retailer Wholesaler Factory Distributor Psyche of the Human 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 0 0 0 2 6 2 6 8 6 10 6 4 6 10 4 6 4 4 6 4 6 4 6 4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Incoming Order Order Placed 6 6 6 0 0 0 2 6 2 6 8 6 10 6 4 6 10 4 6 4 4 6 6 6 4 6 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Incoming Order Order Placed 6 6 6 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 6 6 6 6 4 3 6 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 15 8 6 0 4 6 8 6 10 8 4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Incoming Order Order Placed 6 6 3 6 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 15 8 6 0 4 6 8 6 10 2 2 3 0 7 12 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 5 8 8 8 6 6 6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Incoming Order Order Placed Need to avoid Stock-Out Need to maintain lower inventory Need to maintain lower inventory Need to avoid under- production
  • 5. 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 0 0 0 2 6 2 6 8 6 10 6 4 6 10 4 6 4 4 6 6 6 4 6 6 6 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 6 6 6 6 4 6 6 3 6 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 15 8 6 0 4 6 8 6 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory Factory has the biggest incoming order The next biggest order is to the distributor Wholesaler is also pressured with bigger orders Evidence of Bull-Whip Effect Incoming Orders
  • 6. 14 16 18 20 22 16 10 4 -2 -4 -10 -12 -10 -10 -10 -12 -10 -4 -6 -6 -10 -6 -2 0 0 12 12 12 18 24 28 30 26 24 18 10 4 4 -4 2 2 -6 -8 -8 -4 0 4 4 4 4 12 12 12 14 13 17 20 25 26 26 24 22 16 10 4 -2 -6 -2 7 5 4 -2 -4 -4 0 12 12 15 11 8 6 5 12 24 24 26 26 26 26 26 18 3 0 -1 5 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory Evidence of Bull-Whip Effect Factory suffered highest inventory for long periods Retailer was most affected by stock-outs Inventory Performance
  • 7. 14 16 18 20 22 16 10 4 4 8 20 24 20 20 20 24 20 8 12 12 20 12 4 0 0 12 12 12 18 24 28 30 26 24 18 10 4 10 14 14 2 18 16 16 8 0 4 4 4 4 12 12 12 14 13 17 20 25 26 26 24 22 16 10 4 4 12 4 7 5 4 4 8 8 0 12 12 15 11 8 6 5 12 24 24 26 26 26 26 26 18 3 0 2 5 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory Cost Cost – Performance of stages Week 5 – 9 : Retailer Wholesaler and Distributor reduced their costs, causing factory inventory to pile up
  • 8. What clicked for Group 8 ? Over ordering due to fear of stock-outs avoided The team suffered severe stock- outs which added to cost but saved on the cost due to over ordering that could have multiplied Bull-whip effect reduced by ordering ‘Just-Enough’ The Maximum order(10) in the Retailer stage was 2 Standard Deviations(2.06) from the mean(5.12) Zero Stock Out Performance of Factory A Stock out in the factory would have caused a further 2 week delay down the chain and been catastrophic for all stages -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 10 20 30 6 6 6 0 0 0 2 6 2 6 8 6 10 6 4 6 10 4 6 4 4 6 6 6 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
  • 9. What did not click for Group 8 ? Unprecedented Pressure on Factory The Factory underwent long periods of heavy inventory was almost pushed to a stock-out at the end! Batch Ordering The retailer, in anticipation of smaller/bigger orders started ordering Zeros followed by huge quantities! Severe Stock-outs A stock out here has just twice the cost of inventory, however in a real scenario the cost of losing a customer may be much higher 14 16 18 20 22 16 10 4 -2 -4 -10 -12 -10-10-10 -12 -10 -4 -6 -6 -10 -6 -2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425 6 6 6 0 0 0 2 6 2 6 8 6 10 6 4 6 10 4 6 4 4 6 6 6 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425 1212 15 11 8 6 5 12 2424 2626262626 18 3 0 -1 5 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425
  • 10. Cost Breakup 348, 27% 332, 26% 309, 24% 290, 23% Retailer Wholesaler Distributor Factory 120 228 Retailer Inventory Stock-Outs 252 80 Wholesaler Inventory Stock-Outs 252 80 Wholesaler Inventory Stock-Outs 288 2 Factory Inventory Stock-Outs Total Cost = 1279 Units
  • 11. Major Problems What IF ? …. High Inventory Levels Low Service Levels (Stock-Outs) High Cost Demand Fluctuations We could bring the market data directly to the factory Introduce consumer bidding for future consumption Maintain constant inventory and order levels among all stages (except factory) Develop a separate channel for spike orders fulfilled directly from factory IS THIS WHAT THE E-COMMERCE GIANTS ARE DOING???