ICT Role in 21st Century Education & its Challenges.pptx
Inequality, Jobs, Growth: The postwar experience in the U.S.
1. Inequality, Jobs, Growth
The postwar experience in the U.S.
Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Ph.D.
Bard College and Levy Economics Institute
tchernev@bard.edu
http://pavlina-tcherneva.net
@ptcherneva
3. -20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1949 -
1953
1954 -
1957
1958 -
1960
1961 -
1969
1970 -
1973
1975 -
1979
1982 -
1990
1991 -
2000
2001 -
2007
2009 -
2012
bottom 90% top 10%
source: Pavlina R. Tcherneva calculcations based on Piketty/Saez data and NBER
Distribution of average income growth during expansions
bottom 90% vs. top 10% of families
4. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1949 -
1953
1954 -
1957
1958 -
1960
1961 -
1969
1970 -
1973
1975 -
1979
1982 -
1990
1991 -
2000
2001 -
2007
2009 -
2012
Distribution of average income growth during expansions
bottom 99% vs. top 1% of families
bottom 99% top 1%
source: Pavlina R. Tcherneva calculcations based on Piketty/Saez data and NBER
5. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1949 -
1953
1954 -
1957
1958 -
1960
1961 -
1969
1970 -
1973
1975 -
1979
1982 -
1990
1991 -
2000
2001 -
2007
2009 -
2012
bottom 99.99% top 0.01%
Distribution of average income growth during expansions
bottom 99.99% vs. top 0.01% of families
source: Pavlina R. Tcherneva calculcations based on Piketty/Saez data and NBER
7. Inequality and the labor market
• Long term unemployment
• Slower recovery in payrolls
• Decline in wage share as % GDP
• Collapse in labor force participation rate
• Collapse in employment-population ratio
• Spike in hidden unemployment
8. Secular rise in long term unemployment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70% 1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Number unemployed for 15 weeks & over, as % of total unemployment
13. The mark of unemployment
• Costs of unemployment
• “The unemployed need not apply”
• “9 months of unemployment = 4 years off work
experience” (Eriksson, S. and Rooth, AER, 2014)
16. Fiscal policy and inequality
• Pro-growth, pro-investment orientation
• Erodes income inequality between labor and capital
• Erodes income inequality within labor
17. Employment by occupation
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
low and medium wage occupations high wage occupations
Source: Pavlina R. Tcherneva calculations based on www.bls.gov data
18. Two ways to improve the income distribution
1. distribute income after it was generated
2. change the way income is generated
• Increase the wage share of economy
• Stabilize incomes from employment at the bottom
• Policy regime full employment over the long run (tight labor markets)
• Establish living wages as a floor to all wages (eliminate race to bottom)
• Ensure that wages at the bottom grow faster than those at the top
• Bubble up policy, not trickle down economics
• Rethink and redesign government countercyclical stabilizers
• Rethink the safety-net
24. Rethinking the safety-net
• Retirement income insecurity
• social security
• Homelessness
• housing
• Hunger
• food
• Unemployment
• job
• Job Guarantee
• Employer of Last Resort
• Full employment through Social Entrepreneurship
25. Two roads to full employment
• TOP DOWN “stimulus” and “bank bailouts”
• BOTTOM UP direct job creation