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Tokyo International Exchange Center
   25th RESEARCH & PRESENTATION



 BUSINESS out OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
           Pranab J. BARUAH
   Research Fellow, The University of Tokyo



               9-Sep-2008                     1
Climate Change
           Cause:
           -Increasing GHGs
           -Inefficient machines
           producing heat (?)


           GHG:
           Green House Gas

           CO2 is one of GHGs




                  Fig: globalwarmingart.com
                  Data: Meehl et al. (2004)
Climate Change Impact
                             Cereal Production


                                              Positive impacts




                                                 negative impacts




Source: IIASA, www.iiasa.ac.at/research/LUC
Climate Change Impact
    Water Resources
Impact on coastal areas             Impact on Health
   Sea-level rise in Nile Delta   Increase of Tropical Disease
                                  like malaria




                                    Source: Marten P. et al. (1995)
Source: UNEP-Grid
Climate Change Impact
                     Natural Disasters
                              May be fewer hurricanes
                              but stronger ….

                              Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, 2008
                              Death: 146,000
                              Damage: US$10 Billion




Hurricane Katrina USA, 2005
Death: 1836, 705 missing
Damage: US$80.9 Billion

          ….deadlier ones
Climate Change Impact
      Economy- loss by Flood and Weather
$US Billion
300



200



100




        1960-1969 1970-1979   1980-1989     1988-1997
                Total Loss                Insured Loss
Climate Change- An Economic Issue


According to IPCC 4th Assessment Report
Min. rise of 1.8 deg and Max. estimate 4.0 deg in 2100

Stern Review, 2006
-On current trend, temperature will rise 2-3 deg in 50 years

-With a 5-6 deg warming in 2100, 5-10% loss of global GDP

-Poor countries suffering costs in excess of 10% GDP

-benefits of US $2500 Billion from mitigating climate change
Climate Change- An Economic Issue
Abating GHG for Mitigating Climate Change

              Benefits              Cost of
               From                Reducing
              Reducing               GHG
               GHG


Cost
of carbon


                                     Abatement Level
            10 9         Emission Level       3   2
Why Businesses are to thinking about
Climate Change
 Governments are moving to reduce the cost for future
- Jump before being pushed
- Competitive advantage
- Resources are becoming limited

Also, new stakeholders like banks and insurance
companies are arriving at the scene.
 This “green wave” is presenting an unprecedented
     challenge and opportunities to companies.

              A New Paradigm Shift
  •Business not only to create best product/service
         but sustainable products/services
  •Businesses to save the world without sacrificing
          our lifestyle, economic progress
GHG Emissions



CO2
is the most
important
GHG




Source: IPCC
Business from Mitigation
                                                     Vehicle
                                        Smartgrid

                                                            Solar
  CleanTech                                     Water
                                  Fuelcell
                                               Filtration
  (GreenTech)                                               Wind
 Source: Clean Revolution                 Green         Biofuel
 By Pernick and Wilder
                                         Buildings

                   Indirect          Direct

                                       Low carbon Energy
   Carbon Finance
                                         Low carbon Technology
                             Sectors
  Carbon                                      Energy Efficiency
                               of
   funds
                            Business   Carbon Capture & Sequestration

           Consultancy               Landuse/Landcover Management
Vinod Khosla, Khosla
Ventures : “The best
brains in the country
are no longer working
on the next drug or the
next Silicon Revolution.
They want to work on
energy”




      Silicon Valley’s
      Next Big Thing ?
Business for/from climate change




                              From $7.9 Billion
                              in 2007. US Market
Solar     Wind   Biofuel       Solar Hotwater




                       Source: CleanEdge



                       Global Investments 2007
    Solar
Biodiesel
    Wind




                                           REN21
Source: CleanEdge
Production of Biofuel



Ethanol from             ETHANOL
Corn, sugarcane etc.




                         BIODIESEL

Biodiesel from
Vegetable Oil etc.
                                     Source: CleanEdge
Global Investment in Clean Energy in 2007
               (US$ Billion)




                                   Source: CleanEdge
World Indices vs. NEX Renewable Energy Index




                     Source: SEFI/New Energy Finance
Transportation
Going for Renewable Energy, New Technologies




                               Hybrid-Toyota Prius
                100% Ethanol




Compressed Air Car
-Tata MDI
                                   100% Electric
Transportation
Going for Efficiency, in Design
       - Sleeker smaller cars for single person
       - Highly maneuverable cars for urban area




                              Electric and Hybrid
    Three wheeler-
                              /3 wheeler- Aptera
    Carver One
                                     Motors
                                      With Google.org
Transportation
Going for Efficiency, in Fuel Use



                    USA




               EU          CHINA

                                    JAPAN

                GHG Emission for cars
Carbon Finance : Carbon funds
- Buying carbon credits to meet Kyoto obligations
   and funds investing directly in projects.
- Private funds driven by returns than compliance
- Public funds are raised mainly to manage CDM/JI

  Carbon Funds 2000-2007




                                   Source: New Carbon Finance
Future Driven by Demand
         and New Technology




               2007            2020
Population     6.6 billion     8 billion
Cars           800 million     1000 million

Only 3% of world car with biofuels, electricity
or hydrogen

Convergence of Technologies & sectors in future
Source: CleanEdge
Source: CleanEdge
Source: CleanEdge
Next Generation Biofuels
          No competition between food and fuel
          CORN                 SUGARCANE       CELULLOSIC
                                           (Wood, Grass,Waste)


GHG
                                                    91% less
         22% less               56% less
than
Gasoline


Energy Output
to Input

                                                         36.0
                                 8.0
          1.3



 Source: National Geographic
Role of Information and Communication
Technology (ICT)
 -Increasing Efficiency & Dematerialization
 -Impact in Transport, Building, Industry & Power (smart grid)




                       CO2 due to ICT in 2020

        2002
        2020
 no reduction
                                                       Reduce 5 times
                                                       of what it emits
         2020
with reduction
                              CO2 reduction by ICT in 2020
 reduction by other method
                              Source and Copyright: SMART 2020 The Climate Group
Upcoming Technologies and businesses
           with great potential


Carbon Capture and Storage
Capture GHG from coal etc. & store in deep earth, ocean.
Not economically feasible yet.

Clean Coal technology
Already there, but high cost.

Co-generation
Capture energy lost as heat during some manufacturing
processes and use it to generate electricity or to run a
different process.
What it all means to
  general public
Increasing public awareness is
               driving corporate decisions
        Why your company take climate change into consideration



    Reputation
Customer choice

         Media




                                       Source: McKinsey Global Institute Report
Common People
                   should be rightly
                  aware to reward
                  green companies
                      with green
                     product and
                     punish those
                        doing
                  “Greenwashing”.


                        Ecolabels



Source: Futerra
Concluding Remarks

Climate change is posing new challenges and
creating immense opportunities for businesses.

New businesses and technologies are evolving to
mitigate climate change and provide sustainability.

Correct awareness is and will be shaping good policies
and right policies will push green businesses
for sustainability.



               Thank you !

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Business out of Climate Change

  • 1. Tokyo International Exchange Center 25th RESEARCH & PRESENTATION BUSINESS out OF CLIMATE CHANGE Pranab J. BARUAH Research Fellow, The University of Tokyo 9-Sep-2008 1
  • 2. Climate Change Cause: -Increasing GHGs -Inefficient machines producing heat (?) GHG: Green House Gas CO2 is one of GHGs Fig: globalwarmingart.com Data: Meehl et al. (2004)
  • 3. Climate Change Impact Cereal Production Positive impacts negative impacts Source: IIASA, www.iiasa.ac.at/research/LUC
  • 4. Climate Change Impact Water Resources
  • 5. Impact on coastal areas Impact on Health Sea-level rise in Nile Delta Increase of Tropical Disease like malaria Source: Marten P. et al. (1995) Source: UNEP-Grid
  • 6. Climate Change Impact Natural Disasters May be fewer hurricanes but stronger …. Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, 2008 Death: 146,000 Damage: US$10 Billion Hurricane Katrina USA, 2005 Death: 1836, 705 missing Damage: US$80.9 Billion ….deadlier ones
  • 7. Climate Change Impact Economy- loss by Flood and Weather $US Billion 300 200 100 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1988-1997 Total Loss Insured Loss
  • 8. Climate Change- An Economic Issue According to IPCC 4th Assessment Report Min. rise of 1.8 deg and Max. estimate 4.0 deg in 2100 Stern Review, 2006 -On current trend, temperature will rise 2-3 deg in 50 years -With a 5-6 deg warming in 2100, 5-10% loss of global GDP -Poor countries suffering costs in excess of 10% GDP -benefits of US $2500 Billion from mitigating climate change
  • 9. Climate Change- An Economic Issue Abating GHG for Mitigating Climate Change Benefits Cost of From Reducing Reducing GHG GHG Cost of carbon Abatement Level 10 9 Emission Level 3 2
  • 10. Why Businesses are to thinking about Climate Change Governments are moving to reduce the cost for future - Jump before being pushed - Competitive advantage - Resources are becoming limited Also, new stakeholders like banks and insurance companies are arriving at the scene. This “green wave” is presenting an unprecedented challenge and opportunities to companies. A New Paradigm Shift •Business not only to create best product/service but sustainable products/services •Businesses to save the world without sacrificing our lifestyle, economic progress
  • 11. GHG Emissions CO2 is the most important GHG Source: IPCC
  • 12. Business from Mitigation Vehicle Smartgrid Solar CleanTech Water Fuelcell Filtration (GreenTech) Wind Source: Clean Revolution Green Biofuel By Pernick and Wilder Buildings Indirect Direct Low carbon Energy Carbon Finance Low carbon Technology Sectors Carbon Energy Efficiency of funds Business Carbon Capture & Sequestration Consultancy Landuse/Landcover Management
  • 13. Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures : “The best brains in the country are no longer working on the next drug or the next Silicon Revolution. They want to work on energy” Silicon Valley’s Next Big Thing ?
  • 14. Business for/from climate change From $7.9 Billion in 2007. US Market
  • 15. Solar Wind Biofuel Solar Hotwater Source: CleanEdge Global Investments 2007 Solar Biodiesel Wind REN21
  • 17. Production of Biofuel Ethanol from ETHANOL Corn, sugarcane etc. BIODIESEL Biodiesel from Vegetable Oil etc. Source: CleanEdge
  • 18. Global Investment in Clean Energy in 2007 (US$ Billion) Source: CleanEdge
  • 19. World Indices vs. NEX Renewable Energy Index Source: SEFI/New Energy Finance
  • 20. Transportation Going for Renewable Energy, New Technologies Hybrid-Toyota Prius 100% Ethanol Compressed Air Car -Tata MDI 100% Electric
  • 21. Transportation Going for Efficiency, in Design - Sleeker smaller cars for single person - Highly maneuverable cars for urban area Electric and Hybrid Three wheeler- /3 wheeler- Aptera Carver One Motors With Google.org
  • 22. Transportation Going for Efficiency, in Fuel Use USA EU CHINA JAPAN GHG Emission for cars
  • 23. Carbon Finance : Carbon funds - Buying carbon credits to meet Kyoto obligations and funds investing directly in projects. - Private funds driven by returns than compliance - Public funds are raised mainly to manage CDM/JI Carbon Funds 2000-2007 Source: New Carbon Finance
  • 24. Future Driven by Demand and New Technology 2007 2020 Population 6.6 billion 8 billion Cars 800 million 1000 million Only 3% of world car with biofuels, electricity or hydrogen Convergence of Technologies & sectors in future
  • 28. Next Generation Biofuels No competition between food and fuel CORN SUGARCANE CELULLOSIC (Wood, Grass,Waste) GHG 91% less 22% less 56% less than Gasoline Energy Output to Input 36.0 8.0 1.3 Source: National Geographic
  • 29. Role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) -Increasing Efficiency & Dematerialization -Impact in Transport, Building, Industry & Power (smart grid) CO2 due to ICT in 2020 2002 2020 no reduction Reduce 5 times of what it emits 2020 with reduction CO2 reduction by ICT in 2020 reduction by other method Source and Copyright: SMART 2020 The Climate Group
  • 30. Upcoming Technologies and businesses with great potential Carbon Capture and Storage Capture GHG from coal etc. & store in deep earth, ocean. Not economically feasible yet. Clean Coal technology Already there, but high cost. Co-generation Capture energy lost as heat during some manufacturing processes and use it to generate electricity or to run a different process.
  • 31. What it all means to general public
  • 32. Increasing public awareness is driving corporate decisions Why your company take climate change into consideration Reputation Customer choice Media Source: McKinsey Global Institute Report
  • 33. Common People should be rightly aware to reward green companies with green product and punish those doing “Greenwashing”. Ecolabels Source: Futerra
  • 34. Concluding Remarks Climate change is posing new challenges and creating immense opportunities for businesses. New businesses and technologies are evolving to mitigate climate change and provide sustainability. Correct awareness is and will be shaping good policies and right policies will push green businesses for sustainability. Thank you !