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Inclusive Growth, Infrastructure and
the Role of the
Construction Industry
1
Philippine Institute for Development Studies
Surian sa mga Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas
www.pids.gov.ph
Adoracion M. Navarro
Senior Research Fellow
Pandi, Bulacan
28 April 2016
Philippine Press Institute’s Seminar-Workshop on
Sustainable Construction Reporting
OUTLINE
• Macroeconomic trends and poverty alleviation
• Suggested analytical frameworks
• State of physical infrastructure
• Role and contribution of the construction
industry
2
Macroeconomic trends
and poverty alleviation
3
Macroeconomic trends
4
3.1%
4.4%
2.9%
3.6%
5.0%
6.7%
4.8%
5.2%
6.6%
4.2%
1.1%
7.6%
3.6%
6.8% 6.9%
6.1% 5.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP Growth Rate
GDP Growth, at constant 2000 prices
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Macroeconomic trends
5
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Exports
Capital Formation
Government Consumption
Household Final Consumption Expenditure
GDP Growth
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SERVICE SECTOR
INDUSTRY SECTOR
AGRI. FISHERY,FORESTRY
GDP Growth
Supply- and
Demand-side
Contributions to
Growth,
1999-2015
Source: Philippine
Statistics Authority
Poverty alleviation
• Poverty incidence among
Filipinos has been
declining since 2008
 From an estimate of 28.8
percent in first sem 2006, it
went down to 26.3 in first
sem 2015
• The same trend can be
observed with regards to
the poverty incidence
among families
 From 23.4 percent in first
sem 2006, it went down to
21.1 percent in first sem
2015
6
23.4 22.9 22.3 21.1
28.8 28.6 27.9
26.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2006 2009 2012 2015
Poverty Incidence among Families (%)
Poverty Incidence among Population (%)
Poverty Incidence among Families and Population: first semesters
of 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2015
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Poverty alleviation
7
4.5
10.4
13.0
16.5
17.2
20.5
20.6
22.0
24.2
27.0
30.9
30.9
34.9
35.3
37.4
39.3
53.4
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
NCR
Region IV-A
Region III
Region II
Region I
Region XI
CAR
Region IV-B
Region VI
Region VII
Region IX
Region V
Region X
Caraga
Region XII
Region VIII
ARMM
First Semester Poverty Incidence among Families (%)
6.5
13.4
15.8
21.5
21.7
26.7
26.7
29.8
30.5
30.5
39.0
39.0
40.9
43.9
44.5
47.3
59.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
NCR
Region IV-A
Region III
Region II
Region I
CAR
Region XI
Region IV-B
Region VII
Region VI
Region V
Region IX
Region X
Caraga
Region XII
Region VIII
ARMM
First Semester Poverty Incidence among Population (%)
First Semester Poverty Incidence among Families and Population, Per Region: 2015
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Income inequality is the bigger challenge
2009 2012
1st Decile 2.9% 3.0%
2nd Decile 3.9% 3.9%
3rd Decile 4.6% 4.6%
4th Decile 5.5% 5.4%
5th Decile 6.5% 6.5%
6th Decile 7.8% 7.8%
7th Decile 9.8% 9.5%
8th Decile 12.2% 12.1%
9th Decile 16.2% 16.3%
10th Decile 30.5% 30.8%
8
46.17
44.04 44.2
42.91 43.04
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Gini-Coefficient
Inequality in the Philippines:
2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012
Source: World Bank
Per Capita Income Decile, % Distribution
Source:PhilippineStatisticsAuthority
• Gini coefficient has decreased (inequality declined)
from 46.17% in 2000 to 43.04% in 2012. Minimal
movement from 2009 to 2012.
• With respect to income distribution, the richest
decile earns approximately 10 times more than the
poorest decile. The same trend can be seen in 2009.
Suggested analytical
frameworks
9
What Adam Smith said
An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776):
“Good roads, canals, and navigable rivers, by diminishing the expense of
carriage, put the remote parts of the country more nearly upon a level
with those in the neighborhood of the town. They are upon that
account the greatest of all improvements. They encourage the
cultivation of the remote, which must always be the most extensive
circle of the country… Though they introduce some rival commodities
into the old market, they open many new markets to its produce.”
10
Physical infrastructure promotes inclusive growth
• enables connectivity and
increases opportunity for
engaging in economic
activities
• stimulates mobility of
production inputs like labor,
financial capital, machineries,
and equipment
• speeds up the delivery of
social services to remote
areas.
11
Source: http://goo.gl/DTtm0c
Infrastructure and urbanization
• Infrastructure also facilitates the
process of urbanization
 Urbanization is a process characterized by
the spatial concentration of production
activities as well as clustering and sorting in
other human activities (Scott and Storper,
2014)
 Infrastructure allows smooth interaction of
the production space and the social space.
 Urban development plans should have strong
focus on the need to facilitate the circulation
of people within and between the
production spaces and social spaces
12
Production
Space
Circulation
Space
Social
Space
production space
where work and
employment are
concentrated
circulation space
as represented by
infrastructures and
arterial
connections
social space as
manifested in
residential
neighborhoods
Urban land nexus
State of physical infrastructure
13
Roads
• Road Network
14
Location and Road Classification
Length (km)
Paved Unpaved Total
Metro Manila
Arterial 88 - 88
Secondary 943 - 943
Total 1,032 - 1,032
Philippines
Arterial 12,747 2,812 15,559
Secondary 8,259 5,551 13,810
Total 21,006 8,363 29,370
Good,
34.0%
Fair, 31.5%
Poor, 17.1%
Bad, 9.3%
No
Assessment,
8.1%
Location and Road Classification
National Road Condition, 2014
Source: DPWH, Stakeholder Relations Office
Source: DPWH Atlas, 2014
Mass Rail Transport & Bus Rapid Transit
 Planned systems:
• LRT 1 extension to Bacoor, Cavite
• LRT 6, which will extend LRT 1 Bacoor
terminus to Dasmariñas
• LRT 2 extension to Port Area, Manila
• LRT 2 extension to Masinag, Antipolo
• LRT 4, which will connect EDSA-
Ortigas to Taytay, Rizal
• MRT 7, which will link North EDSA to
San Jose del Monte, Bulacan
• new rail lines to be built over the
existing PNR routes, Tutuban-Malolos
and Tutuban-Calamba
• BRT
• Cebu BRT
• Metro Manila BRT via Quezon
Ave
• EDSA BRT
15Figure 2. Philippine Rail Network Source: DOTC
Airports
• National Airport System
• No of Airports with Commercial Flight Operations = 42
• No of Airports without Commercial Flight Operations = 43
• Runway Congestion
• Maximum aircraft movement per hour is 40, but can spike up to 48 per hour in peak hours
• Congestion leads to cascading delays; PAL estimates losses of Php 84,000 per 30-min delay
16
Philippine Airports, by Classification
Source: Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
CLASSIFICATION CAAP Authorities PPP Total
International 7 3 1 11
Principal Class 1 14 - - 14
Principal Class 2 18 - 1 19
Community 40 1 - 41
Total 79 4 2 85
Ports
• National Port System
17
Type No. of Ports
Baseports 26
Terminal Ports 82
Satellite and RORO Ports 103
Source: Philippine Ports Authority
Shipcalls 2012 2013 2014
Domestic 335,272 345,945 347,841
Foreign 10,598 10,572 9,639
Total 345,870 356,517 357,480
Source: Philippine Ports Authority
Source:PhilippinePortsAuthority
No. of Ports, by Type
Domestic and Foreign Shipcalls, 2012-2014
Figure3.MapofPhilippinePorts
Infra Quality across ASEAN
18
2.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.7
4.4
5.7
6.2
0 2 4 6 8
Myanmar
Cambodia
Philippines
Vietnam
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
2.6
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.2
4.4
5.1
5.7
6.8
0 2 4 6 8
Myanmar
Cambodia
Philippines
Lao PDR
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Quality of Roads, across ASEAN Quality of Air Transport Infra, across ASEAN
Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016, World Economic Forum
Note: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale. A total of 14 economies were surveyed.
Infra Quality across ASEAN
19
Quality of Railroad Infra, across ASEANQuality of Port Infra, across ASEAN
Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016, World Economic Forum
Note: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale. A total of 140 economies were surveyed.
1.6
1.8
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.6
5.1
5.7
0 2 4 6
Cambodia
Myanmar
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.5
5.6
6.7
0 2 4 6 8
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Philippines
Cambodia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
ICT Indicators across ASEAN
20
49.5
67.0
111.2
126.2
144.4
147.1
148.8
155.1
158.1
0 50 100 150 200
Myanmar
Lao PDR
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
Malaysia
Cambodia
Singapore
1.0
2.8
3.1
6.0
8.5
11.7
13.4
14.6
35.5
0 10 20 30 40
Myanmar
Cambodia
Philippines
Vietnam
Thailand
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Singapore
Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016, World Economic Forum
Mobile Subscriptions/100 pop., across ASEAN Fixed-Telephone Lines/100 pop., across ASEAN
ICT Indicators across ASEAN
21
BRU, 68.77
CMB, 9.00
IND, 17.14
LAO, 14.26
MAL, 67.50
MYA, 2.10
PHI, 39.69
SIN, 82.00
THA, 34.89
VIE, 48.31
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3.64
6.54
6.68
6.92
7.03
7.99
9.04
17.7
19.82
122.43
0 50 100 150
Philippines
Myanmar
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Brunei
Cambodia
Vietnam
Thailand
Singapore
Percentage of Internet Users, 2000-2014 Household Speed Index (in Mbps)
Source: International Telecommunications Union, 2015
Source:Ookla,May2015
Water Supply and Sanitation
22
Water Supply and Sanitation Indicators, various years
Source:PhilippineStatisticsAuthority
% of Families with Access
to Safe Water
% of Families with Access
to Sanitary Toilet
Facilities
MDG
2015
86.5 83.8
2014 85.5 94.1
2011 84.4 91.6
2010 82.5 91.9
2008 81.4 88.6
2007 81.5 87.9
2004 77.9 85.4
2002 79.7 86.0
1999 79.1 82.3
1998 78.1 80.4
1990 73.0 67.6
• Water Supply and Sanitation
• PH has achieved MDG 2015 goal
on access to sanitary toilet
facilities
• As of 2014, PH is on track to meet
the MDG 2015 goal on access to
safe water
• Sagana at Ligtas na Tubig Para sa
Lahat (Salintubig) Program
• Aquino Administration’s WSS Program
• Under the Salintubig, only a total of 62 of
the target 455 municipalities have
reportedly graduated as of June 2015.
Energy
• Generation Mix
23Source: DOE Database of Power Plants as of September 2015.
Dependable Capacity Installed Capacity
Energy
• In a USAID study prepared by CATIF, electricity prices in the Philippines
are not competitive compared to selected ASEAN countries.
24
PHL SGP INA MAL THA
Per kWh
Residential 0.3608 0.2523 0.1156 0.1302 0.2484
Commercial 0.3727 0.2523 0.2447 0.2353 0.2869
Low voltage Industrial 0.3021 0.2432 0.1999 0.2082 0.2765
High voltage Industrial 0.2995 0.2183 0.1769 0.1894 0.2557
Conversion Factors for Local Currency Units
US dollars, average in 2011 43.31 1.26 8,770.43 3.06 30.49
PPP$, 2011 24.79 1.03 6,565.87 1.9 17.42
Cross-peso, average in 2011 34.4567 0 14.1716 1.4219
Comparison of 2011 Electricity Tariffs after Adjusting for Price Differences (in 2011 PPP dollars)
Source:CATIF,2013
Energy
• Based on the 2015-2016
World Economic Forum –
Global Competitiveness
Report, the Philippines
ranks 89th among 140
countries in terms of
quality of electricity.
• Philippines - among the
bottom three in terms of
quality of electricity
supply
25
Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016
Note: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale, with 7 being the highest rating.
Survey includes 140 countries. Brunei Darussalam is not included.
Quality of Electricity Supply, across ASEAN Countries
2.7
3.1
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.7
5.2
5.8
6.7
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Myanmar
Cambodia
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Lao PDR
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Role and contribution of the
construction industry
26
Share of construction in GDP
• On the production
side, largest sectoral
share is from the
Service Sector (57%),
followed by the
Industry Sector.
• In the Industry Sector,
manufacturing is 23%
of GDP, while the
construction industry
is 6% of GDP.
27
AGRI.FISHERY,FORESTRY,
10%
SERVICE SECTOR, 57%
Manufacturing, 23%
Construction, 6%
Elec., Gas and
Water…
Mining & Quarrying, 1%
INDUSTRY SECTOR, 33%
Share of GDP by Industrial Origin, 2015
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, 2015
Capital Formation and Construction
• On the expenditure side,
23% of the GDP can be
attributed to Capital
Formation. Since 2012, the
share of Capital Formation in
GDP has been increasing
• In 2015, capital formation
increased by 13.6%
compared to the 5.4%
growth it registered in
2014
• Among the components of
Capital Formation,
construction remains second
in terms of percentage share
(9.3%) in 2015, next to
Durable Equipment (11.9%)
28
23.5%
9.3%
11.9%
1.3%
0.7%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Capital Formation Construction Durable Equipment
Breeding Stock & Orchard Dev't Intellectual Property Products
Capital Formation and its Sub-sectors, as Percent of GDP
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Public and Private Construction
29
-10.6%
8.5%
-6.2%
-0.6%
3.6%
-0.7% -2.1%
7.7%
11.3%
4.2%
1.6%
17.5%
-8.4%
17.6%
11.0%
10.9%
8.4%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PUBLIC PRIVATE Total Construction (Growth Rates)
Value and Growth Rates of Private and Public Construction, 1999-2015
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
• In terms of real values (at constant 2000 prices),
total construction value has been increasing
since 2011. However, the growth rates has been
steadily decreasing. In 2015, construction has
been down to 8.4% growth, from 10.9% the
previous year.
• Private contribution to construction has been
growing faster than public contribution. In 2015,
growth rate of the private sector has been 4.3%,
while the public sector’s contribution is only
4.1%.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Public
(Growth
Rate)
1.4% -11.6% 3.6% 3.5% 1.3% 4.1%
Private
(Growth
Rate)
16.1% 3.2% 14.0% 7.5% 9.6% 4.3%
Growth Rates of Public & Private
Construction, 2010-2015
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Public and Private Construction
• The increase in the value of
construction as percent of GDP is
primarily driven by the private
sector.
• Since 2011, the share of total value of
construction as percent of GDP has been
increasing. In 2011, it was 7.6%, and is
not at 9.3% in 2015.
• The 9.3% share of GDP in 2015 is the highest in
the last 15 years.
• The private sector has the larger share
with 7.2% of the GDP in 2015, while
public only has 2.1%.
• This has been the highest share of the private
sector as percent of GDP since 1998.
• As for the public sector’s share, 2.1% is
the highest since 2011.
30
3.6%
2.9% 3.1% 2.9%
2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8%
2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5%
1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1%
7.2%
6.5%
6.7%
6.0%
6.2% 6.2%
6.0%
5.5%
5.1% 5.5% 5.6%
5.3%
6.1%
6.1%
6.7%
6.9% 7.3%
7.2%
10.9%
9.4%
9.8%
8.9%
8.6% 8.4%
7.9%
7.3% 7.5%
7.8% 7.8% 7.9%
8.6%
7.6%
8.4%
8.7%
9.1%
9.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PUBLIC (as % of GDP) PRIVATE (as % of GDP) GROSS VALUE IN CONSTRUCTION (as % of GDP)
Construction Growth Rates and Private vs Public Value in Construction, 1999-2015
PhilippineInstituteforDevelopmentStudies
Surian samga Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas
Service through
policy research
31
WEBSITE: www.pids.gov.ph
FACEBOOK: facebook.com/PIDS.PH
TWITTER: twitter.com/PIDS_PH
Thank you!

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1 ppi inclusive growth, infra & construction v3

  • 1. Inclusive Growth, Infrastructure and the Role of the Construction Industry 1 Philippine Institute for Development Studies Surian sa mga Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas www.pids.gov.ph Adoracion M. Navarro Senior Research Fellow Pandi, Bulacan 28 April 2016 Philippine Press Institute’s Seminar-Workshop on Sustainable Construction Reporting
  • 2. OUTLINE • Macroeconomic trends and poverty alleviation • Suggested analytical frameworks • State of physical infrastructure • Role and contribution of the construction industry 2
  • 4. Macroeconomic trends 4 3.1% 4.4% 2.9% 3.6% 5.0% 6.7% 4.8% 5.2% 6.6% 4.2% 1.1% 7.6% 3.6% 6.8% 6.9% 6.1% 5.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP Growth Rate GDP Growth, at constant 2000 prices Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
  • 5. Macroeconomic trends 5 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net Exports Capital Formation Government Consumption Household Final Consumption Expenditure GDP Growth -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SERVICE SECTOR INDUSTRY SECTOR AGRI. FISHERY,FORESTRY GDP Growth Supply- and Demand-side Contributions to Growth, 1999-2015 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
  • 6. Poverty alleviation • Poverty incidence among Filipinos has been declining since 2008  From an estimate of 28.8 percent in first sem 2006, it went down to 26.3 in first sem 2015 • The same trend can be observed with regards to the poverty incidence among families  From 23.4 percent in first sem 2006, it went down to 21.1 percent in first sem 2015 6 23.4 22.9 22.3 21.1 28.8 28.6 27.9 26.3 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2006 2009 2012 2015 Poverty Incidence among Families (%) Poverty Incidence among Population (%) Poverty Incidence among Families and Population: first semesters of 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2015 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
  • 7. Poverty alleviation 7 4.5 10.4 13.0 16.5 17.2 20.5 20.6 22.0 24.2 27.0 30.9 30.9 34.9 35.3 37.4 39.3 53.4 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 NCR Region IV-A Region III Region II Region I Region XI CAR Region IV-B Region VI Region VII Region IX Region V Region X Caraga Region XII Region VIII ARMM First Semester Poverty Incidence among Families (%) 6.5 13.4 15.8 21.5 21.7 26.7 26.7 29.8 30.5 30.5 39.0 39.0 40.9 43.9 44.5 47.3 59.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 NCR Region IV-A Region III Region II Region I CAR Region XI Region IV-B Region VII Region VI Region V Region IX Region X Caraga Region XII Region VIII ARMM First Semester Poverty Incidence among Population (%) First Semester Poverty Incidence among Families and Population, Per Region: 2015 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
  • 8. Income inequality is the bigger challenge 2009 2012 1st Decile 2.9% 3.0% 2nd Decile 3.9% 3.9% 3rd Decile 4.6% 4.6% 4th Decile 5.5% 5.4% 5th Decile 6.5% 6.5% 6th Decile 7.8% 7.8% 7th Decile 9.8% 9.5% 8th Decile 12.2% 12.1% 9th Decile 16.2% 16.3% 10th Decile 30.5% 30.8% 8 46.17 44.04 44.2 42.91 43.04 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Gini-Coefficient Inequality in the Philippines: 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012 Source: World Bank Per Capita Income Decile, % Distribution Source:PhilippineStatisticsAuthority • Gini coefficient has decreased (inequality declined) from 46.17% in 2000 to 43.04% in 2012. Minimal movement from 2009 to 2012. • With respect to income distribution, the richest decile earns approximately 10 times more than the poorest decile. The same trend can be seen in 2009.
  • 10. What Adam Smith said An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776): “Good roads, canals, and navigable rivers, by diminishing the expense of carriage, put the remote parts of the country more nearly upon a level with those in the neighborhood of the town. They are upon that account the greatest of all improvements. They encourage the cultivation of the remote, which must always be the most extensive circle of the country… Though they introduce some rival commodities into the old market, they open many new markets to its produce.” 10
  • 11. Physical infrastructure promotes inclusive growth • enables connectivity and increases opportunity for engaging in economic activities • stimulates mobility of production inputs like labor, financial capital, machineries, and equipment • speeds up the delivery of social services to remote areas. 11 Source: http://goo.gl/DTtm0c
  • 12. Infrastructure and urbanization • Infrastructure also facilitates the process of urbanization  Urbanization is a process characterized by the spatial concentration of production activities as well as clustering and sorting in other human activities (Scott and Storper, 2014)  Infrastructure allows smooth interaction of the production space and the social space.  Urban development plans should have strong focus on the need to facilitate the circulation of people within and between the production spaces and social spaces 12 Production Space Circulation Space Social Space production space where work and employment are concentrated circulation space as represented by infrastructures and arterial connections social space as manifested in residential neighborhoods Urban land nexus
  • 13. State of physical infrastructure 13
  • 14. Roads • Road Network 14 Location and Road Classification Length (km) Paved Unpaved Total Metro Manila Arterial 88 - 88 Secondary 943 - 943 Total 1,032 - 1,032 Philippines Arterial 12,747 2,812 15,559 Secondary 8,259 5,551 13,810 Total 21,006 8,363 29,370 Good, 34.0% Fair, 31.5% Poor, 17.1% Bad, 9.3% No Assessment, 8.1% Location and Road Classification National Road Condition, 2014 Source: DPWH, Stakeholder Relations Office Source: DPWH Atlas, 2014
  • 15. Mass Rail Transport & Bus Rapid Transit  Planned systems: • LRT 1 extension to Bacoor, Cavite • LRT 6, which will extend LRT 1 Bacoor terminus to Dasmariñas • LRT 2 extension to Port Area, Manila • LRT 2 extension to Masinag, Antipolo • LRT 4, which will connect EDSA- Ortigas to Taytay, Rizal • MRT 7, which will link North EDSA to San Jose del Monte, Bulacan • new rail lines to be built over the existing PNR routes, Tutuban-Malolos and Tutuban-Calamba • BRT • Cebu BRT • Metro Manila BRT via Quezon Ave • EDSA BRT 15Figure 2. Philippine Rail Network Source: DOTC
  • 16. Airports • National Airport System • No of Airports with Commercial Flight Operations = 42 • No of Airports without Commercial Flight Operations = 43 • Runway Congestion • Maximum aircraft movement per hour is 40, but can spike up to 48 per hour in peak hours • Congestion leads to cascading delays; PAL estimates losses of Php 84,000 per 30-min delay 16 Philippine Airports, by Classification Source: Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines CLASSIFICATION CAAP Authorities PPP Total International 7 3 1 11 Principal Class 1 14 - - 14 Principal Class 2 18 - 1 19 Community 40 1 - 41 Total 79 4 2 85
  • 17. Ports • National Port System 17 Type No. of Ports Baseports 26 Terminal Ports 82 Satellite and RORO Ports 103 Source: Philippine Ports Authority Shipcalls 2012 2013 2014 Domestic 335,272 345,945 347,841 Foreign 10,598 10,572 9,639 Total 345,870 356,517 357,480 Source: Philippine Ports Authority Source:PhilippinePortsAuthority No. of Ports, by Type Domestic and Foreign Shipcalls, 2012-2014 Figure3.MapofPhilippinePorts
  • 18. Infra Quality across ASEAN 18 2.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 4.4 5.7 6.2 0 2 4 6 8 Myanmar Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Lao PDR Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore 2.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.8 0 2 4 6 8 Myanmar Cambodia Philippines Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Quality of Roads, across ASEAN Quality of Air Transport Infra, across ASEAN Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016, World Economic Forum Note: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale. A total of 14 economies were surveyed.
  • 19. Infra Quality across ASEAN 19 Quality of Railroad Infra, across ASEANQuality of Port Infra, across ASEAN Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016, World Economic Forum Note: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale. A total of 140 economies were surveyed. 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.6 5.1 5.7 0 2 4 6 Cambodia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Singapore 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.5 5.6 6.7 0 2 4 6 8 Lao PDR Myanmar Philippines Cambodia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore
  • 20. ICT Indicators across ASEAN 20 49.5 67.0 111.2 126.2 144.4 147.1 148.8 155.1 158.1 0 50 100 150 200 Myanmar Lao PDR Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Cambodia Singapore 1.0 2.8 3.1 6.0 8.5 11.7 13.4 14.6 35.5 0 10 20 30 40 Myanmar Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Singapore Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016, World Economic Forum Mobile Subscriptions/100 pop., across ASEAN Fixed-Telephone Lines/100 pop., across ASEAN
  • 21. ICT Indicators across ASEAN 21 BRU, 68.77 CMB, 9.00 IND, 17.14 LAO, 14.26 MAL, 67.50 MYA, 2.10 PHI, 39.69 SIN, 82.00 THA, 34.89 VIE, 48.31 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3.64 6.54 6.68 6.92 7.03 7.99 9.04 17.7 19.82 122.43 0 50 100 150 Philippines Myanmar Indonesia Laos Malaysia Brunei Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Singapore Percentage of Internet Users, 2000-2014 Household Speed Index (in Mbps) Source: International Telecommunications Union, 2015 Source:Ookla,May2015
  • 22. Water Supply and Sanitation 22 Water Supply and Sanitation Indicators, various years Source:PhilippineStatisticsAuthority % of Families with Access to Safe Water % of Families with Access to Sanitary Toilet Facilities MDG 2015 86.5 83.8 2014 85.5 94.1 2011 84.4 91.6 2010 82.5 91.9 2008 81.4 88.6 2007 81.5 87.9 2004 77.9 85.4 2002 79.7 86.0 1999 79.1 82.3 1998 78.1 80.4 1990 73.0 67.6 • Water Supply and Sanitation • PH has achieved MDG 2015 goal on access to sanitary toilet facilities • As of 2014, PH is on track to meet the MDG 2015 goal on access to safe water • Sagana at Ligtas na Tubig Para sa Lahat (Salintubig) Program • Aquino Administration’s WSS Program • Under the Salintubig, only a total of 62 of the target 455 municipalities have reportedly graduated as of June 2015.
  • 23. Energy • Generation Mix 23Source: DOE Database of Power Plants as of September 2015. Dependable Capacity Installed Capacity
  • 24. Energy • In a USAID study prepared by CATIF, electricity prices in the Philippines are not competitive compared to selected ASEAN countries. 24 PHL SGP INA MAL THA Per kWh Residential 0.3608 0.2523 0.1156 0.1302 0.2484 Commercial 0.3727 0.2523 0.2447 0.2353 0.2869 Low voltage Industrial 0.3021 0.2432 0.1999 0.2082 0.2765 High voltage Industrial 0.2995 0.2183 0.1769 0.1894 0.2557 Conversion Factors for Local Currency Units US dollars, average in 2011 43.31 1.26 8,770.43 3.06 30.49 PPP$, 2011 24.79 1.03 6,565.87 1.9 17.42 Cross-peso, average in 2011 34.4567 0 14.1716 1.4219 Comparison of 2011 Electricity Tariffs after Adjusting for Price Differences (in 2011 PPP dollars) Source:CATIF,2013
  • 25. Energy • Based on the 2015-2016 World Economic Forum – Global Competitiveness Report, the Philippines ranks 89th among 140 countries in terms of quality of electricity. • Philippines - among the bottom three in terms of quality of electricity supply 25 Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016 Note: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale, with 7 being the highest rating. Survey includes 140 countries. Brunei Darussalam is not included. Quality of Electricity Supply, across ASEAN Countries 2.7 3.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.8 6.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Myanmar Cambodia Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Lao PDR Thailand Malaysia Singapore
  • 26. Role and contribution of the construction industry 26
  • 27. Share of construction in GDP • On the production side, largest sectoral share is from the Service Sector (57%), followed by the Industry Sector. • In the Industry Sector, manufacturing is 23% of GDP, while the construction industry is 6% of GDP. 27 AGRI.FISHERY,FORESTRY, 10% SERVICE SECTOR, 57% Manufacturing, 23% Construction, 6% Elec., Gas and Water… Mining & Quarrying, 1% INDUSTRY SECTOR, 33% Share of GDP by Industrial Origin, 2015 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, 2015
  • 28. Capital Formation and Construction • On the expenditure side, 23% of the GDP can be attributed to Capital Formation. Since 2012, the share of Capital Formation in GDP has been increasing • In 2015, capital formation increased by 13.6% compared to the 5.4% growth it registered in 2014 • Among the components of Capital Formation, construction remains second in terms of percentage share (9.3%) in 2015, next to Durable Equipment (11.9%) 28 23.5% 9.3% 11.9% 1.3% 0.7%0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Capital Formation Construction Durable Equipment Breeding Stock & Orchard Dev't Intellectual Property Products Capital Formation and its Sub-sectors, as Percent of GDP Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
  • 29. Public and Private Construction 29 -10.6% 8.5% -6.2% -0.6% 3.6% -0.7% -2.1% 7.7% 11.3% 4.2% 1.6% 17.5% -8.4% 17.6% 11.0% 10.9% 8.4% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PUBLIC PRIVATE Total Construction (Growth Rates) Value and Growth Rates of Private and Public Construction, 1999-2015 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority • In terms of real values (at constant 2000 prices), total construction value has been increasing since 2011. However, the growth rates has been steadily decreasing. In 2015, construction has been down to 8.4% growth, from 10.9% the previous year. • Private contribution to construction has been growing faster than public contribution. In 2015, growth rate of the private sector has been 4.3%, while the public sector’s contribution is only 4.1%. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Public (Growth Rate) 1.4% -11.6% 3.6% 3.5% 1.3% 4.1% Private (Growth Rate) 16.1% 3.2% 14.0% 7.5% 9.6% 4.3% Growth Rates of Public & Private Construction, 2010-2015 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
  • 30. Public and Private Construction • The increase in the value of construction as percent of GDP is primarily driven by the private sector. • Since 2011, the share of total value of construction as percent of GDP has been increasing. In 2011, it was 7.6%, and is not at 9.3% in 2015. • The 9.3% share of GDP in 2015 is the highest in the last 15 years. • The private sector has the larger share with 7.2% of the GDP in 2015, while public only has 2.1%. • This has been the highest share of the private sector as percent of GDP since 1998. • As for the public sector’s share, 2.1% is the highest since 2011. 30 3.6% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 7.2% 6.5% 6.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 5.5% 5.6% 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 6.7% 6.9% 7.3% 7.2% 10.9% 9.4% 9.8% 8.9% 8.6% 8.4% 7.9% 7.3% 7.5% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.6% 7.6% 8.4% 8.7% 9.1% 9.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PUBLIC (as % of GDP) PRIVATE (as % of GDP) GROSS VALUE IN CONSTRUCTION (as % of GDP) Construction Growth Rates and Private vs Public Value in Construction, 1999-2015
  • 31. PhilippineInstituteforDevelopmentStudies Surian samga Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas Service through policy research 31 WEBSITE: www.pids.gov.ph FACEBOOK: facebook.com/PIDS.PH TWITTER: twitter.com/PIDS_PH Thank you!

Notas do Editor

  1. Press Release on Poverty Incidence: http://www.psa.gov.ph/poverty-press-releases
  2. Top 5 poorest regions are: ARMM; Region VIII - Eastern Visayas; Region XII - SOCCKSARGEN; CARAGA; Region X - Northern Mindanao Press Release on Poverty Incidence: http://www.psa.gov.ph/poverty-press-releases Region XI - Davao Region poverty threshold (per capita, annual): Php18,935
  3. In other countries, inequality worsened; "Confronting Rising Inequality in Asia" (Rhee 2012): Gini coefficient worsened (1990s to late 2000s) in China: 32% to 43% India: 33% to 37% Indonesia: 29% to 39% ------------------ In general, the gini-coefficient has decreased from 46.17% in 2000, to 43.04% in 2012. However, trend varies over the years. - Exhibits an alternating trend: decreasing in 2003 and 2009, while increasing in 2006 and 2012. In terms of income inequality, the richest decile earns approximately 10 times more than the poorest decile. The same trend can be seen in 2009. The gap in income between the richest decile and the poorest decile remains wide.  Families in the richest decile, earned an annual income of 715 thousand pesos in 2012 or 60 thousand pesos monthly, on average.  On the other hand, the families in the poorest decile, earned an average annual income of 69 thousand pesos or about 6 thousand pesos monthly. The income of the families in the richest decile is 10 times that of the poorest decile.  This finding is true for both 2009 and 2012.  For this report, families were ranked according to their per capita income and were grouped into per capita income deciles.  The richest decile represents families belonging to the top 10 percent in terms of per capita income, while the poorest decile represents families in the bottom 10 percent.    - See more at: https://psa.gov.ph/content/filipino-families-poorest-decile-earn-six-thousand-pesos-monthly-average-2012-results-2012#sthash.fYITrFPf.dpuf
  4. Reducing transpo cost; encouraging mobility; reducing inequality between remote areas and towns; rural development; increasing opportunities
  5. There are a total of 201,351 km of national and local roads for the entire country (29,370 km National Roads and 171,981 km local roads). For Metro Manila there is a total of 4,755 km of national and local roads (1,032 km of National and 3,723 km of Local Roads). Statistics presented by DPWH in RTD (Nov 2015)
  6. THE TRANSPORTATION department has yet to decide on when the San Miguel group can start building the Metro Rail Line 7 (MRT-7) that will connect Quezon City to San Jose, Bulacan, even with the conglomerate saying it was ready to start immediately. See: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Economy&title=mrt-7-builders-ready-to-start-dotc-says-not-yet&id=123283
  7. Maximum Aircraft movement per hour in NAIA is at 40. But during peak hours, can spike up to 48 per hour, based on Airport Coordination Australia (ACA) study. Source: PhilStar, November 2015 (See: http://goo.gl/x2fG2x) Philippine Airlines, Inc. (PAL) said its losses reach around $1,800 (around P84,000) for every 30-minute delay in its flights due to the runway congestion at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Pasay City. “Many times we fly around Metro Manila for additional 20 to 30 minutes -- we did an estimate of how much it costs us for a minute of delay because of congestion, it is around $60 (around P2,800) every minute on average,” PAL President Jaime J. Bautista told reporters here. The amount covers jet fuel, maintenance, and additional labor expenses. Source: CAB, See: http://www.cab.gov.ph/news/2584-pal-mulls-move-to-clark-as-it-counts-cost-of-naia-congestion
  8. In efforts to ease congestion, BOC has suggested that it is better to have banks open until 5PM, and even weekends to further alleviate port congestion. “Opening banks until 5 p.m. on weekdays and Sundays will allow for faster clearing and pullout of cargo, Bureau of Customs (BoC) Commissioner Alberto D. Lina told reporters in a recent interview.” “This will result in quicker turnaround time in ports, given also the lifting of the truck ban and the lighter traffic on Sundays. So, we would like to maximize the whole of Sunday and early Monday morning up to lunch time,” Mr. Lina said “extended banking hours, particularly on Sundays, would allow the BoC to clear and release about 10,000 containers daily instead of the estimated current daily average of 2,000.” See: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Economy&title=boc-calls-for-extended-banking-hours-to-ease-port-congestion&id=122789 Other sources noted that port congestion is due to lack of port infra, ongoing construction projects and repair works . Last year, port congestion was an issue due to day time truck ban.
  9. Note that Brunei was not included in the survey of economies. Further, the Philippines ranks third to the last in all of the infra rankings. For Quality of Roads, PH ranks 97 out of 140 countries. For Context, ranking is: 94Cambodia3.3 95Uruguay 96Latvia 97Philippines 98Zimbabwe 99Bulgaria 100Burundi For Air Transport Infra, PH is 98 out of 140: 96Estonia 97Ukraine 98Philippines 99Serbia 100Cambodia 101Senegal 102Uruguay
  10. Note that Brunei was not included in the survey of economies. Further, the Philippines ranks third to the last in all of the infra rankings. For Port Infra, PH ranks 103 out of 140. Ranking is: 100Rwanda 101Cameroon 102Zimbabwe 103Philippines 104Madagascar 105Ethiopia 106Gabon 107Slovak Republic For Rail Infra, PH is 84 out of 140. Ranking is: 81Senegal 82Mozambique 83Zimbabwe 84Philippines 85Macedonia, FYR 86Ghana 87Bolivia 88Mali
  11. Note that Brunei was not included in the survey of economies. Further, the Philippines ranks third to the last in all of the infra rankings. For Mobile Subscriptions, PH is 76 of 140. Rankings out of 140 is: 74New Zealand 75Portugal 76Philippines 77Iceland 78Azerbaijan 79Macedonia, FYR For Fixed telephone lines, PH is 108 of 140. Ranking is: 105Cameroon 106Swaziland 107Bhutan 108Philippines 109Nepal 110Gambia, The 111Cambodia 112Pakistan
  12. Ookla is the global leader in Internet speed testing company that ranks and index the download speed of broadband Internet speed around the globe. One of their products is Speedtest.net. The figures shown here are from May 2015. In their test, the PH ranks 176th out of 202 surveyed countries worldwide. In Asia, PH only bested Afghanistan. Below is the complete list of Asian countries surveyed: Singapore: 122.43 Mbps 2. Hong Kong: 102.96 Mbps 3. Japan: 82.12 Mbps 4. South Korea: 59.77 Mbps 5. Macau: 50.66 Mbps 6. Taiwan: 50.59 Mbps 7. Thailand: 19.82 Mbps 8. Mongolia: 17.92 Mbps 9. Vietnam: 17.70 Mbps 10. Bangladesh: 9.86 Mbps 11. Cambodia: 9.04 Mbps 12. Nepal: 8.63 Mbps 13. Brunei: 7.99 Mbps 14. Bhutan: 7.82 Mbps 15. India: 7.04 Mbps 16. Malaysia: 7.03 Mbps 17. Laos: 6.92 Mbps 18. Indonesia: 6.68 Mbps 19. Myanmar: 6.54 Mbps 20. Pakistan: 4.00 Mbps 21. Philippines: 3.64 Mbps 22. Afghanistan: 2.52 Mbps - See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/489762/scitech/technology/list-philippines-ranks-21st-of-22-asian-countries-in-internet-download-speed#sthash.2EWkYAeL.dpuf Despite the slow download speeds, the Philippines also has some of the most expensive Internet connections in the world. The study showed that Philippine Internet users spend $18.19 per Mbps, compared to an average of $5.21 per Mbps worldwide. This put the Philippines at 161st of 202 countries. - See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/489762/scitech/technology/list-philippines-ranks-21st-of-22-asian-countries-in-internet-download-speed#sthash.2EWkYAeL.dpuf Unfortunately, Ookla report is only available for a fee.
  13. Figure for Sanitary Toilet Facilities: The figures considered own toilets, shared toilets and closed pits as sanitary toilets (either owned or shared). The government adopts definitions used by the Census of Population and Housing (CPH) and Annual Poverty Indicator Survey (APIS) in reporting the country’s progress in achieving its MDG targets. As for Salintubig, sanitation aspect needs focus. Implementation on the ground has large emphasis on water systems, based on fieldworks conducted by PIDS in 2015.
  14. The USAID study prepared by the Center for the Advancement of Trade Integration and Facilitation (CATIF), Inc. compared the electricity rates in selected ASEAN countries. The table above summarizes the rates per country when adjusted using PPP dollars to make them more comparable. According to the study, “(t)his result is not unexpected since the price levels in Singapore are generally higher than in the Philippines and also closer to the price level in the U.S. When this price level difference is removed, the Philippine tariff would be adjusted upwards from its nominal level more than Singapore’s, hence the result. Therefore, in nominal terms, the Philippine electricity tariffs appear closer to Singapore’s, but when adjusted in real terms, the former are decidedly higher than the latter.” (CATIF, 2013, p. 89)
  15. For context: 86 Indonesia 87 Vietnam 88Rwanda 89Philippines 90Algeria 91Montenegro 92Swaziland 93Honduras
  16. Construction grew by 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, slower than the 17.9 percent growth posted in the same period last year. The growth was weighed down by Private Construction despite the robust growth in Public Construction. - PSA
  17. Breeding and Stock - The outlays on animals reared for breeding, sport or entertainment purposes, as draught animals, diary cattle, layers, etc less disposal of these animals are included in this sector as breeding stocks.  Disposals cover not only those animals sold but also those slaughtered by their owners. Orchard development includes expenditures on cultivation of trees, shrubs, etc. in plantations for the products they yield continuously over long periods of time.  Trees grown for timber and yield a product only once when they are ultimately felled are not part of capital formation Source: NSCB Tech Notes, http://nap.psa.gov.ph/sna/2007/4thQ2007/2007tn_2007-Q4.asp#1