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1Future mobile innovations.... @pgolding The Big M - Bath, 21st March http://wirelesswanders.com Copyright Paul Golding, 2011
W(ho)TF is Paul G? - He’s from the “future” 221st year in mobile (Indie for 14)Surﬁng the bleeding edge...16 patents (GSM chipsets)Founded mobile apps ISV in 1996PhD research mobile ARIn...Europe, Asia, Africa, MiddleEast, N. Am, LatAmChief Apps Architect MotorolaAdvised €10K-€10B companiesMentor @ SpringBoard“Intrapreneur” @ O2’s “The Lab”Founded O2 Incubator
Whose future? 3Whose future? Your “developer” future... Open agenda: Two of my kids at MWC 2011:Android developers, ages 11,13
Which future? 4 $ 2011 2014Innovation lessons, trends & tricks “skating to where the puck ($) will go” sorry - no holodeck predictions this time...
Where is the future? 5 “The future has already arrived. Its just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson 1997 2002 2003 2008 2010Being ﬁrst is often a bad idea...Trick #1 Be ﬁrst to win, not to market! tip: copy something else that appears to work;do it better! analyse case studies! project forward!
6BUT...Innovation dilemma “ﬁsh don’t know water exists... until beached” Marshall McLuhan
7BUT... “ﬁsh don’t know water exists... until beached” Marshall McLuhan thought we now we can’t do needed this... without this... Trick #2 - Experiment! Start!tip: ROI of doing nothing is nothing - most start-ups fail because they never started!
Lower the friction as much as possible... 8 1 million? Source: Crossing the Chasm (Geoffrey Moore)Trick #3 - Code towards customers (users)! 1. Reduce operational friction - Run fast as possible - fail fast, pivot often tip: read Steve Blank, Eric Ries, Dave McLure, Osterwalder And.. 2. lower user friction -->
9Trick #4 - Don’t code the future into the product a “whole product” (e.g. Blackberry not POP3) does not mean every feature constantly test (early) your hypotheses! (Stealth = scared.) build the future into the process, not product, and instrument early
Recognise when and where to innovate... 10 Source: Dealing with Darwin (Geoffrey Moore)Trick #5 - Innovate where it matters!
11Trick #6 - Master the whole apps journey Analytics, retailing, chomp marketing, ﬂurry support, allify CRM... Conceive Choose Develop Deliver Engage Product Platforms Product Product Market tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself tip: Become app analysts & developers tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog, other devs...
Where are we headed with devices? 12 “freedom” Utility Experience “freedom” Post PC? Local Cloud “freedom” Source: Asymco interesting side-note: 42% tablets shared by their owners
Shift in the balance of power... 13 2007 2011 2014 Experience apps apps Platforms Web Web apps OS OS Webcomms comms OS comms Telco OEM Internet
The emergent mobile ecosystem... 14Right-time PersonalizedComputer Computer Social Status Wallet Context Multi-UX Interests Apps “Experience Platforms” HTML5 Android iOS ?Right-time Augmented Web SaaS PaaS “The Web Operating System” Real-time bus “Social Stack” Identity/oAuth Linked Data Payments IaaS CaaS NaaS BIG DATA Cloud Platforms Telco
Developer ecosystem opportunities... 15 Facebook Apple? gnip XaaS O2? John Lewis? IMiﬁedSaaS chargify New entrants apigee ﬂurry allify Nodester mSaaS apigee Duostack New entrantsPaaS Heroku Force.com connFu dotcloud Tropo mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator? AWS New entrantsIaaS Rightscale Rackspace Jajah CaaS Skype/Viber NaaS BlueVia New entrants
Voice still has a BIG future.... 17 2010 2012Closed voice Open voice plus “Voice as content” (2014)
Platform domination... 18 Trick #7 - know when you’re really a platform Advertisers Developers OEMS Operatorstip: still need a “killer” app tip: read Spolsky,(orthogonal to the market) Hagiu, Eisenmann Users
Business model enablers versus tech enablers... 19 App stores v HTML5 Identity v oAuth Check-in v Location Open platform v Open source Bit.ly v Redirects Android v MeeGo Analytics v “No-SQL”Trick #8 - Think biz models, not technology tip: try Osterwalder’s biz model canvas
Possible Mobile 3.0 tipping points (TP)... 20 Apps Hardware, OS Experience Platforms Hardware, Post PC Sensor AR, Devices Proliferation HealthNetwork, LTE Key trends Abundant “Mobile 3.0” Cloud Access Computing when mobile really is ﬁrst “Right-time” Seamless PaaS Real-time web Computing SaaS Identity, & meta-data Privacy abundance of developer opportunities throughout the ecosystem
Future of start-ups... 21Taken from Steve Blank - SXSW 2011 2011 - 2014 Rules for the New Bubble • Founders/VC’s can engineer financial transactions • Transactions economically or usage accretive • Still require Agile, Cust Dev & Bus Model • Add: Adoption, Order of Battle and Visibility Trick #9 - Leverage the start-up ecosystem tip: go read the whole presentation http://slidesha.re/gqa9KG tip: get a really good mentor or join an incubator
Future of work... 22 Trick #10 - Start the future today!
23Thank YouPaul Goldingpaul@wirelesswanders.comwirelesswanders.com @pgolding (C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010