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The Consumer Data that Matters 
Now 
Publishers Launch Conference, BookExpo America 
May 29, 2013 
Peter McCarthy
Executive Summary 
There are known knowns. These are things we know that 
we know. There are known unknowns. That is to sa...
Contents 
» Baseline 
» The types of things we know well 
» What we don’t know 
» Why what we know isn’t enough 
» What we...
Baseline 
(who I am, what I talk about when I talk about data, today’s goal) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 5
Who am I 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 6
Who am I 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 7
Consumer marketing data today (and yesterday) 
» Demographics 
 Gender, age group, income level, 
education level, etc. 
...
Consumer marketing data 
Consumer-Focused 
1. Who 
2. What 
3. Why 
Results-Oriented 
 Product 
 Place 
4. Where 
5. Whe...
My goal 
» Offering the suggestion that we understand our business well 
enough today 
» That we understand core book buye...
The types of things we know well 
(A lot about books, the book marketplace, reader personae) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data -...
US trade book sales continue shift online… 
Net Sales ($B) 
6.93 
2011 2012 
Source: 2013 Bookstats 
Brick & Mortar 
8.03 ...
…and to eBooks, though more slowly this year 
64 
eBook Net Sales ($M) 
Logarithmic regression: R2=0.7853 
291 
869 
2,109...
eBook sales vary by category 
1,291 
1,831 
Adult 
Fiction 
Source: 2013 Bookstats 
46 
eBook Net Sales ($M) 
198 
585 
21...
This data is required to manage our businesses 
» And there is much more than just the Bookstats data I’ve gone over 
here...
The book buyer 
» Peter Hildick-Smith of Codex 
took a look at 30k past 12 
month book buyers and 
asked: 
» “Where did fi...
The eBook Reader and “Power Buyer” 
BISG’s “Power Buyer” 
 Has created the personae of the 
“power buyer” 
 17% of whom ...
The “book and eBook reader” 
» Reading and eReading habits 
 75% of the US population 16 and over reads 
 33% of that gr...
What we don’t know 
(Most of which won’t hurt us) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 19
Precise eBook market dynamics… 
eBook Market Share Market Dynamics 
“Conventional Wisdom” 
64% 
22% 
10% 
3% 
Amazon Nook ...
“Real” consumers 
» That consumer for that book 
» Enough of an understanding and approach on the spectrum 
of consumer re...
Why it isn’t enough 
(hypothesis: it is what we need, just not all of what we need) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunc...
The industry is making a fairly smooth shift… 
Total US Trade Revenue with eBook Revenue Nested ($M) 
2010 2011 2012 
But ...
Unfair comp 1: Amazon share price: May ‘08 – May ‘13 
$78.45 / SHARE 
$269.07 / SHARE 
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 
300 
200 ...
Unfair comp #2: iPad growth 2010 – Q1 2013 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 25
Unfair comp #3: Apple profits, same period 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 26
In the end, here’s why I think what we know isn’t enough 
» We need to be demonstrably the best at connecting authors and ...
What we can know much better 
(hypothesis: it’s easier than we think) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 28
More about every potential reader 
» Demographics 
» Psychographics 
» Behaviors 
 By using the consumer data that we do ...
Some (really useful) sources of consumer data 
 Social Graph 
They know consumers. 
Now tying to offline sources. 
 Ad P...
Obviously great tools for outbound marketing 
» And outbound best practices must be understood to best 
execute 
» However...
How: Big data, little data…right data, right time… 
Big Data 
 Enterprise-scale tools 
 Batch data extraction via 
APIs ...
FWIW: I use a subset of ~100 tools to triangulate, plan & execute 
Social Analytics 
 Simply Measured 
 Peek Anaytics 
...
Some Use Cases 
(hypothesis: sample triangulating) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 34
Google Trends 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 35
Amazon auto-fill (not logged in, cookies cleared) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 36
What it may mean 
SEO Quake 
(hypothesis: quick burst of pain, then good stuff) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BE...
Google keyword suggestion tool 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 38
Facebook Ad Interface 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 39
Facebook Insights > Power Editor > Custom/Lookalike 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 40
Peek Analytics 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 41
Simply Measured 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 42
Then a bunch more till there’s “enough to go on” then.. 
» Map to internal data (sales, etc.) 
» Ensure goals understood 
...
What it May Mean 
(hypothesis: all in the eye of the beholder…) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 44
Constant triangulation – however you can do it 
The smart business of the future will correlate 
and compute a mix of data...
These guys predicted the future! 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 46
Some will have a harder time than others 
 C-Level misalignment 
 Over-emphasis on attribution 
direct ROI out of the ga...
Skillsets, experience, orientation, or willingness key 
Q. What challenges does your company face with data management? 
S...
Publishers as best connector of book to reader results from: 
» Being marketing scientists, marketing quants, or getting s...
And if you can scale it… 
» The Ever-Learning Marketer or Marketing Organization 
 Puts the right book in front of the ri...
Smarter, ever-improving marketing at scale 
To become a chess grandmaster also 
seems to take about ten years. (Only 
the ...
Thank you very much 
(hypothesis: probably one or two too many slides…) 
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 52
The Consumer Data that Matters 
Now 
Publishers Launch Conference, BookExpo America 
May 29, 2013 
Peter McCarthy
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The Consumer Data that Matters Now – Publishers Launch BEA 2013

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In 2012, about 150,000,000 people in the US had read a book in the past 12 months (Pew). I offered here that the shift from physical books to digital commerce and ebooks is really an oft-discussed red herring -- one that distracts publishers from developing the audience-centric mindset to seek, synthesize, and act on new types of (primarily consumer) data to serve authors by finding more of that massive population of readers. A year and half later, many more are seeking. I hope they are finding.

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The Consumer Data that Matters Now – Publishers Launch BEA 2013

  1. 1. The Consumer Data that Matters Now Publishers Launch Conference, BookExpo America May 29, 2013 Peter McCarthy
  2. 2. Executive Summary There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 3
  3. 3. Contents » Baseline » The types of things we know well » What we don’t know » Why what we know isn’t enough » What we can know much better  How: a hypothetical use case » What it may mean May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 4
  4. 4. Baseline (who I am, what I talk about when I talk about data, today’s goal) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 5
  5. 5. Who am I May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 6
  6. 6. Who am I May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 7
  7. 7. Consumer marketing data today (and yesterday) » Demographics  Gender, age group, income level, education level, etc.  Note: I include geographic region here » Psychographics  Beliefs, values, attitudes, opinions, “lifestyles” » Behaviors  What people have done, are doing, and are most likely to do next May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 8
  8. 8. Consumer marketing data Consumer-Focused 1. Who 2. What 3. Why Results-Oriented  Product  Place 4. Where 5. When 6. How  Price  Promotion Measured  What’s working  What’s not Optimization ? May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 9
  9. 9. My goal » Offering the suggestion that we understand our business well enough today » That we understand core book buyers pretty well » Advancing these hypotheses:  That we reach many readers with books they do not want  That there are far more potential readers for each book we publish than we do reach  That this happens because of the percentage of time we spend looking at different types of data » Offering a suggestion on what we might do, how, and with what results for earned, paid, and owned marketing efforts May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 10
  10. 10. The types of things we know well (A lot about books, the book marketplace, reader personae) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 11
  11. 11. US trade book sales continue shift online… Net Sales ($B) 6.93 2011 2012 Source: 2013 Bookstats Brick & Mortar 8.03 Net Sales ($B) 7.47 2011 2012 5.72 May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 12
  12. 12. …and to eBooks, though more slowly this year 64 eBook Net Sales ($M) Logarithmic regression: R2=0.7853 291 869 2,109 3,042 +199% +143% +43% +355% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: 2013 Bookstats May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 13
  13. 13. eBook sales vary by category 1,291 1,831 Adult Fiction Source: 2013 Bookstats 46 eBook Net Sales ($M) 198 585 216 484 469 592 Adult Nonfiction 2010 2011 2012 Juvenile Fiction May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 14
  14. 14. This data is required to manage our businesses » And there is much more than just the Bookstats data I’ve gone over here » We also know a great deal based on our own internal data » We also watch aggregate consumer trends and use digital platforms to derive insights » Result:  Informs strategy, aiding primarily in macro, strategic decision-making  We still can’t predict the future: all eBook projections way off… Etc. May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 15
  15. 15. The book buyer » Peter Hildick-Smith of Codex took a look at 30k past 12 month book buyers and asked: » “Where did find out about the book you last bought?” 31% 5% 6% 14% 10% Physical Retailer Reccomendations Analog Publicity 4th Online Media Online Booksellers A Very Nice Find » 13% of readers recommend to 38% Source: Challenges to Book Discovery, DBW 2013 May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 16
  16. 16. The eBook Reader and “Power Buyer” BISG’s “Power Buyer”  Has created the personae of the “power buyer”  17% of whom report acquiring “at least weekly”  Skews female (it’s a not a he or a she, it’s a blend)  Cluster in the 18 – 55 range  Are well off, professionals, many clerical workers, and homeworkers  Favor eBooks over physical  Many shifting toward tablets and, it seems, reading less  Preferred tablet becoming iPad  They as for top acquisition source (results to right) How Acquired? Power Reader Standard Reader 0% 50% 100% Amazon Barnes & Noble Apple iBooks Library or Library Site eBooks.com Google Source: 2013 BISG Consumer Attitudes toward E-Books May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 17
  17. 17. The “book and eBook reader” » Reading and eReading habits  75% of the US population 16 and over reads  33% of that group had ether an eReader or a Tablet  67% of book readers said they had read one in the past 12 months  23% 16 and over had read a book  A lot on demographics 67% of US book readers age >16 report they Have read a book in the past 12 months = ~157,754,850 potential consumers Source: Pew May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 18
  18. 18. What we don’t know (Most of which won’t hurt us) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 19
  19. 19. Precise eBook market dynamics… eBook Market Share Market Dynamics “Conventional Wisdom” 64% 22% 10% 3% Amazon Nook Apple iBooks Other • Conclusive Data on Pricing Lots of energy. smart thinking, and facts, but… • The Effects of Self-publishing Huge. ISBN registrations through Bowker + unknown masses of KDP authors. Strong belief they drive the average bestseller price down…strong • Much at all about Apple Surprising, given all the fuss. May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 20
  20. 20. “Real” consumers » That consumer for that book » Enough of an understanding and approach on the spectrum of consumer relationships and how to have them » We don’t know most of those 150M potential consumers Well-known Lightly touched, slightly known Currently Unknown but Interesting May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 21
  21. 21. Why it isn’t enough (hypothesis: it is what we need, just not all of what we need) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 22
  22. 22. The industry is making a fairly smooth shift… Total US Trade Revenue with eBook Revenue Nested ($M) 2010 2011 2012 But we’ve mostly managed to stay afloat while others have thrived… Source: BISG Trends; Bookstats 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 eBooks Print May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 23
  23. 23. Unfair comp 1: Amazon share price: May ‘08 – May ‘13 $78.45 / SHARE $269.07 / SHARE 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 300 200 100 May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 24
  24. 24. Unfair comp #2: iPad growth 2010 – Q1 2013 May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 25
  25. 25. Unfair comp #3: Apple profits, same period May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 26
  26. 26. In the end, here’s why I think what we know isn’t enough » We need to be demonstrably the best at connecting authors and their titles to the most, most right readers – efficiently and repeatedly » What we know today allows us to run our businesses and manage a shift. That alone is no small feat…but… » Basically, we’re surrounded… Except if we can better reach those … 157,754,850 potential consumers May9, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 27
  27. 27. What we can know much better (hypothesis: it’s easier than we think) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 28
  28. 28. More about every potential reader » Demographics » Psychographics » Behaviors  By using the consumer data that we do have  But vastly increasing our efforts around augmenting that with “raw” consumer data  Using tools to systematize and, if possible, scale the knowledge and efforts May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 29
  29. 29. Some (really useful) sources of consumer data  Social Graph They know consumers. Now tying to offline sources.  Ad Platform Open (APIs, Tools) and Optimized.  Constant A/B testing Fail fast, fix.  Result: Happy Users/Advertisers Despite incredible concerns over privacy. Relevance trumps it.  Search (& lots else) Massive share, joyous users.  Ad Platform Still the of ad inventory at an all time high.  Literally Building a Brain Yes. All products data-driven .  Open APIs and tools  Massive growth Wild adoption and usage.  Ad Platform Targeting getting there but they know what they need to know.  Timely Almost “now.”  Open (for now) Can get at the data. May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 30
  30. 30. Obviously great tools for outbound marketing » And outbound best practices must be understood to best execute » However, it is when we  Use them in specific public-facing ways…  turn them around and extract consumer data…  and mash that data with other sources of data… » That we can triangulate a potential consumer-set vis-à-vis the three attributes we need to market most effectively… » Then we’ve got who, what, when, where, how, and why we need to put the right message in front of the right person at the right place at the right time May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 31
  31. 31. How: Big data, little data…right data, right time… Big Data  Enterprise-scale tools  Batch data extraction via APIs  Used for listening, real-time platform monitoring  Marketing automation  Business intelligence dashboards and mash-ups  Decision support, exceptions reporting  Data-warehousing  Report generation  More…  Lighter-weight tools to support same tactics  Require “cobbling” to triangulate multiple data points  But…  Are readily accessible, easy-to-use, require less organizational change…  And they work Are not mutually exclusive – in fact, employing both is a best practice May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 32
  32. 32. FWIW: I use a subset of ~100 tools to triangulate, plan & execute Social Analytics  Simply Measured  Peek Anaytics  SproutSocial  Trackur  Tweriod  Tweepi  Buffer + Bit.ly  Twitter Ad Interface  Etc.  Facebook Insights  Facebook Ad Interface  Facebook PowerEditor to Create Audiences  Facebook Lookalike Audiences  EdgeRank Checker  LinkedIn Ad Editor  Pinterest Analytics  Google Alerts  Goodreads comp authors  Etc. Web/SEO Support Tools  Google Trends  Google AdWords  Keyword / Placement Suggestion Tool  Amazon search autofill  Google search autofill  Compete  Quantcast  SEO Moz  SEO Quake  Google universal analytics  Amazon search auto-fill  Amazon comp authors  Librarything tags  Google search auto-fill  Etc.  Excel Plugins  Various Web Us  IFTT  Lots of Chrome Extensions/Apps  Others May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 33
  33. 33. Some Use Cases (hypothesis: sample triangulating) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 34
  34. 34. Google Trends May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 35
  35. 35. Amazon auto-fill (not logged in, cookies cleared) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 36
  36. 36. What it may mean SEO Quake (hypothesis: quick burst of pain, then good stuff) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 37
  37. 37. Google keyword suggestion tool May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 38
  38. 38. Facebook Ad Interface May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 39
  39. 39. Facebook Insights > Power Editor > Custom/Lookalike May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 40
  40. 40. Peek Analytics May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 41
  41. 41. Simply Measured May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 42
  42. 42. Then a bunch more till there’s “enough to go on” then.. » Map to internal data (sales, etc.) » Ensure goals understood » Align everything with attributes  Meta-data through to creative » Put all measurement in place  Google goals, affiliate tracking, etc. » Create light execution plan Specifics differ but works for inbound/outbound, earned, paid, “rented”, etc.  Four Phases: foundation, tactical growth, pruning, communicate » Launch » Optimize/Prune May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 43
  43. 43. What it May Mean (hypothesis: all in the eye of the beholder…) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 44
  44. 44. Constant triangulation – however you can do it The smart business of the future will correlate and compute a mix of data including demographics, psychographics, web analytics, social analytics and business intelligence to create predictive scenarios that can be delivered in real time at the point of need. -- Paul Simbeck-Hampson Marketing Consultant May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 45
  45. 45. These guys predicted the future! May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 46
  46. 46. Some will have a harder time than others  C-Level misalignment  Over-emphasis on attribution direct ROI out of the gates  Over emphasis on “owning the relationship”  There is a range of relationships and knowing them (and that they know you is pretty good)  Over-emphasis on creative planning  Overly concerned with beginning thinking with the “what” not the “who”  Allow for marketing budgets that can “move” May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 47
  47. 47. Skillsets, experience, orientation, or willingness key Q. What challenges does your company face with data management? Source: The Soda Report, 2013 Challenge Data Collection 36% Data entry 9% Data storage 7% Data search 14% Data sharing 16% Data analysis 54% Data cleansing 30% Creating value/insights 49% Other 6% May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 48
  48. 48. Publishers as best connector of book to reader results from: » Being marketing scientists, marketing quants, or getting some  They are very useful.  Understand that search and social are consumer activities/tools but business ones as well. Heavy duty ones. Like coop. Remember coop? » Obtaining true, live consumer insights  In the wild, as they’re behaving, living, speaking up. » Taking action based on their own knowledge + data » Optimizing » Lather, rinse, repeat » Market the marketing all along the way (because they know what happened) Expanded reach beyond core book buyers May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 49
  49. 49. And if you can scale it… » The Ever-Learning Marketer or Marketing Organization  Puts the right book in front of the right consumer at the right time  Optimizes marketing spend  Improves stakeholder relations through rich communication, clear accountability, and an abundance of creativity (there’s a lot in the data!)  Does this in partnership with other areas and eventually improves the entire organization's capabilities, cross-pollinating learning May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 50
  50. 50. Smarter, ever-improving marketing at scale To become a chess grandmaster also seems to take about ten years. (Only the legendary Bobby Fisher got to that elite level in less than that amount of time: it took him nine years.) And what’s ten years? Well, it’s roughly how long it takes to put in ten thousand hours of hard practice. Ten thousand hours is the magic number of greatness.” — p. 41, Outliers May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 51
  51. 51. Thank you very much (hypothesis: probably one or two too many slides…) May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 52
  52. 52. The Consumer Data that Matters Now Publishers Launch Conference, BookExpo America May 29, 2013 Peter McCarthy
  • gbiverous

    Sep. 5, 2014

In 2012, about 150,000,000 people in the US had read a book in the past 12 months (Pew). I offered here that the shift from physical books to digital commerce and ebooks is really an oft-discussed red herring -- one that distracts publishers from developing the audience-centric mindset to seek, synthesize, and act on new types of (primarily consumer) data to serve authors by finding more of that massive population of readers. A year and half later, many more are seeking. I hope they are finding.

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