This document discusses potential global futures over the next 30 years, including steady progress or major upheaval. It outlines dimensions of historical technological progress and considers potential "next big things" like nanotechnology, renewable energy, and biotechnology. While some scenarios involve economic stagnation or catastrophe, the document argues the world is currently at a crossroads with opportunities for virtuous growth through continued innovation and collaboration on a global scale.

1. The Global Future 2016
Steady progress or cataclysmic change?
Pete O’Dell
Pete.odell@swanisland.net
www.swanisland.net

2. Context
Suspend belief – forget obstacles for today
World, national, local views
Future discussion and vision
 Framework
 Trends
 Emerging markets
 The “Next Big Thing”
“Where there is no vision, the people perish”
 Proverbs 29:18

3. Food for thought….ancient to
present day
“Economically, the Internet is just like electricity.
First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily
transforms your economy…Decades later nobody
would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s
just there.”--Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings
Institute
“Today, [we] are functionally linked together in a
vast organic system…The earth [is] not only
becoming covered by myriads of grains of
thought, but becoming enclosed in a single
thinking envelope.” --Teilhard de Chardin, 1925
“There is nothing permanent except
change.” – --Heraclitus (540 – 480 B.C.)

4. The Dimensional Progress Model
0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer tribes
– stay away!
1st dimension – trade along natural routes – river
valleys, spice routes
2nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles
3rd dimension – air travel, air cargo
4th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the
world starting with the telegraph & telephone
Decreasing time between each dimension
Is there a 5th dimension?
Source: Bold New World – William Knoke
(recommended reading!)

5. A look in the rear-view mirror….
Where were you:
 December 31, 1999
 September 11, 2001
What’s happened since then?
Would you go back if you could?
What has disappeared in your lifetime
(telegraph, memos, telex)
What has appeared that you can’t do
without?

6. World Scenarios – next 30 years:
Upward growth spiral: despite terror,
localized conflicts and business cycles, the world
marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has since
pre-historic time). Life better for most.
Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and
economies flatten after an amazing post WWII run.
(Did the Boomers ruin it for everyone? Is inequality
shift an unstoppable force? )
Worldwide recession/depression: World
goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period
(the Great Depression of the 30’s) Almost got there
in 2008
Doomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works
(Could a peak solar storm take us all back to the
stone age? Could a meteor take us all out? Cyber?)

7. The World at a crossroad
The US/world at war with terrorism
Deficit and austerity impact USA
Worldwide economic slowdown (recovery?)
Nagging unemployment – productivity/jobs
What about China?
US the one super-power, but can’t do all
Global have’s and have-not’s – 99%/1%
Commodity meltdown – oil prices
Rumsfeld’s unknown unknowns

8. Intertwined worldwide issues
Energy
Food/water
Health/disease
Global warming
Pollution
Languages
Trade blocks
Intellectual property
Terrorism/security
Education
Population growth
Aging populations
Religion
Political
Standards
Paradoxes abound

9. Over-arching trends
Shrinking world (globalization/communications)
Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD,
digital cameras)
Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay)
24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overload
English gaining as worldwide language
Power shifting to the individual - global middle class,
very hard to control information, spawning more
visibility
Contradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor,
fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted

10. The Information Age:
Human Capital/Intellectual Property
Few physical resources needed – clean, high
paying jobs – but maybe too few/robots take
over
Small groups can build global products
Small groups can destroy worldwide (virus,
nukes)
Bits versus Atoms
 EFT versus cement blocks
 FaceBook versus the Post Office
Virtuous upward spirals when it all works

11. Business trends
Increased productivity
Mass customization and localization
Merger of the titans, buy versus build
(American/US Air form biggest airline )
Innovation in small companies (hard!)
Intense drive to streamline and retool
operations - little complacency
Rapid product obsolescence
Economies of scale are a curse and blessing
Global companies bigger than countries

12. Technology trends
Digital convergence – data, voice, video
Internet/WWW ½ of world
Moore’s law marches on – faster,
better, cheaper – chips, storage, &
more
Wireless – all shapes and flavors
Cloud based IT and BYOD
Cyber-security an increasingly important
problem

13. Internet trends
Great for publishing documents to people
E-Bay, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter
No end in sight for global adoption
Wireless access – mobile information
Microbursts of information - social
XML (eXtensible Markup Language)
Still fragile, frustrating and immature –
groaning under the weight of success

14. Emerging technology today
Smartphones and tablets – wow!
Virtual Reality – new round of efforts
Internet of Things – billions of
connection points and amazing sensor
potential
CRISPER – DNA manipulation –
unknown benefits and problems

15. The Next Big Thing (NBT)
Alters the course of mankind – significant impact
Difficult to predict and understand at the onset –
many times fits and starts before taking off
Generational deployment & incremental improvement
Early civilizations: Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture,
writing, numbers
Advancing civilizations: gunpowder, compass,
printing, interchangeable parts, steam engine, bill of
rights
Recent: Indoor plumbing, medicine, electricity,
automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television,
computing, internet, mobile
Collaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason
for accelerating pace

16. Nano-technology – NBT?
Really, really small
Simple - eat escaped oil in ocean
Complex - eat cholesterol from arteries of a
living being
Sensors – watch for individual cancer cells
Self replication – clone more of the same
Physics: Silicon stronger than steel at the
molecular level

17. “Free” Energy Economy–NBT?
Solar advancing steadily – major pushes
Wind picking up as renewables
Fusion making another run
Battery storage for grid may be another
revolution
World awash in oil reserves

18. Biotechnology – NBT?
Non-human
 Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice, drought
resistant cotton
 Cloning and manipulation of animals/pets – GMO Salmon
 Potential to solve many of the world’s problems
 Fraught with regulation and protest
Human
 Genome mapping
 Cloning and stem cell research debates
 Genetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, others
 Extended lifespan through lab based organ creation?
 “All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen Elizabeth

19. NBT Discussion
Additional candidates?
 Mind to network link – brain based Google
 Unmanned and commercial space
exploration
Realistic? Barriers? Enablers?
Timeframe for implementation?
Impact on society?
Should there be a NBT X prize?

20. Parting Thoughts
What does all this mean to you?
What actions will you take?
 Ignore
 Invest
 Embrace
How do you manage the risks?
What about your great-grandkids?

21. Feedback always
welcome.
Pete.odell@swanisland.net