The document summarizes a presentation given at the Australian Society of Baking Conference on global baking trends. It discusses trends seen in new product launches globally and by region from 2009-2012. Specific trends covered include reduced carb/gluten/wheat products, high protein options, sugar free or reduced sugar products, and calorie controlled items. Other trends discussed are related to time scarcity and convenience foods for on-the-go eating, as well as sustainability and ethical concerns. The presentation provides industry data and examples of new products addressing these trends.

1. The Australian Society of Baking Conference - Joy of Baking
“Window on the World”
Rani Berry AB Mauri Marketing Manager

2. Market Insights - Agenda
• Global Category Overview
• New Product Launches
• New Product Launches by Region
• Front of Pack Claims
• A look at the Consumer
• Global consumer
• Local consumer
• The Trends
• Health & Wellness
• Easy and Affordable
• Ethical and Sustainable
• Smart & Connected

3. Sources of Information
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Datamonitor
Euromonitor
Mintel
Innova
Ivestec Securities
Imperial College; London
Rutgers University; NJ
Sosland publishing
AB MAURI research intelligence

4. A Global Resource…with operations
in over 50 countries

5. 2012 New Product Launches
2012 saw 21,500 new products launched globally within the
Bakery Segment, a 7.5% increase from 2011.
5,000
4,500
9%
22%
Bread and Bread
Products
17%
16%
36%
Sweet Cookies
Baking Ingredients and
Mixes
Savoury Crackers
Number of Products Launched
Cakes, Pastries and
Sweet Goods
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2009
2010
Bread and Bread Products
Cakes, Pastries and Sweet Goods
Source: Mintel GNPD Database
2011
2012
Bakery Ingredients and Mixes

6. New Product Launches by Region
25,000
20,000
15,000
North America
Middle East & Africa
Latin America
Europe
10,000
Asia Pacific
5,000
0
2011
2012
2013

7. 2012 ‘on-pack’ Product Claims
Cleaner label and allergy free bakery products rank highly. While most
claims have remained consistent for the past few years, the ‘seasonal’ claim
has disappeared in favour of ‘ease of use’.
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Vegetarian
No Additives /
Preservatives
Source: Mintel GNPD Database
Ethical Packaging
Low / No /
Reduced
Transfat
Kosher
Low / No /
Reduced
Allergen
Wholegrain
Gluten Free
Ease of Use
Organic

8. Consumers in
2012

9. Global Consumer and Industry Outlook
Current and Future Outlook
• Global population exceeded 7 billion in 2012 with the global
population expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by
2050.
• Globally, bakery in the single largest category for NPD / NPL
• As of 2011/2012, Mexico has overtaken the US as the country
with the highest percentage of obese people in its total population.
• The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from
171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030.
• The global functional, allergen free, organic and other healthy
foods market will push through the $1 trillion (€770m) mark for the
first time in 2017, as consumer interest in preventing illness via
food snowballs.

10. Australian Consumer and Industry Outlook
Current and Future Outlook
• Baked goods records 4% retail value growth to be worth A$5.8 billion in
2012.
• Australia has the 7th highest prevalence and 6th highest incidence of
type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2010, 2011).
• The total annual cost for people with type 2 diabetes in Australia is
estimated at $6 billion (Colagiuri et al., 2003) and $570 million for people with type 1
diabetes (Colagiuri et al., 2009a).
• Fourteen million Australians are overweight or obese. If weight gain
continues at current levels, by 2025, close to 80% of all Australian adults
and a third of all children will be overweight or obese.
• Most Australian adults have a daily salt intake of about 10 grams. The
‘Adequate Intake’ corresponds to 1.15-2.3 grams of salt.
• Private label products accounted for 14% of retail value sales in 2012.

11. The Trends

12. Eight Mega-Trends are Driving Changes in
Consumer Packaged Goods
HEALTH & WELLNESS
Health is addressed in a more
holistic and personalized
manner.
SENSORY & INDULGENCE
The driving force behind higher
expectations of quality and
variety.
COMFORT & UNCERTAINTY
Rising stress and uncertainty
are catalysts for safety,
tradition, simplicity, and
reassurance.
SUSTAINABILITY & ETHICS
Shared social and
environmental challenges
command attention.
INDIVIDUALISM &
EXPRESSION
Today’s consumers are
increasingly empowered and
confident.
EVOLVING LANDSCAPES
Socio-demographic and
economic trends are changing,
long term.
SMART & CONNECTED
Technology is increasingly
changing and shaping
consumer behavior.
EASY & AFFORDABLE
Maximization of scarce time and
money shape decision-making.

13. Trends and Sub Trends
MEGA-TREND
TREND
HEALTH &
WELLNESS
Wellbeing
Personalised Health
SENSORY &
INDULGENCE
Premiumization
Novelty
COMFORT
&
UNCERTAINTY
Caution
Anchoring
INDIVIDUALISM
& EXPRESSION
Individuality
Specificity
Source: Datamonitor analysis
SUB-TREND
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Guided Health
Disease Management
Weight Management
Moderation & Avoidance
Ethical Wellbeing
Fresh & Natural
• Experimentation
• Sensory Fusion
• Authenticity
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Simplicity
Cocooning
Trust & Transparency
Localism
• Right-For-Me
• Made-For-Me
• Single Lifestyles

14. Trends and Sub Trends
MEGA-TREND
SUSTAINBILITY
& ETHICS
EASY &
AFFORDABLE
SMART &
CONNECTED
EVOLVING
LANDSCAPES
Source: Datamonitor analysis
TREND
SUB-TREND
Environmental &
Social
Responsibility
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Cruelty-Free
Fairly Traded
Resource Scarcity
Biodiversity
Time Scarcity
Value
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Bargain Hunting
Private Label Evolution
On-The-Go
Efficient & Effective
Digital Consumption &
Lifestyles
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Next Generation Shopping
Informed Shopping
Smart Living
Hyper-Connection
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Migrating Influence
Widening Inequality
Population Engines
Aging Populations
Situational Complexity
Socio Demographic
& Economic Change

15. Focus Trends
“A focus on the enduring mega-trends should
remain the core priority”
Trend #1: Avoidance - Carb / Gluten / Wheat
Trend #2: Guided Health - Protein revolution
Trend #3: Disease Management - Sugar Free or Reduced Sugar
Trend #4: Weight Management - Calorie Controlled
Trend #5: Time Scarcity and Value – On the Move & Kits
Trend #6: Environmental & Social responsibility
Trend #7: Digital consumption and Lifestyles

17. Trend: Carb / Gluten / Wheat avoidance

18. Trend: “Carbs are Bad”
Unless you play sport for Australia or
run marathons, you don’t need carbs.
“Elite Member” Cheappinz on website:
ironmagazine.com:

19. The Examples: Reduced or Low Carb
Innovative white bread with 70% less
carbohydrates. Only 3 grams of
carbohydrates per slice. Contains 70%
less carbohydrates than regular white
bread.
It is 59% less carbohydrates than a normal piece
of rye bread. Carbohydrate content is (19%), but
it contains 12% protein and it's high in fiber (fiber
15%).
Low-carb. Only 6.7%
carbohydrate. 7.2% fiber.
25% protein.
Low carbohydrate. 65% less carb than ordinary
white bread. Contains 13% fiber. 15% more
protein. Contain 19% seeds.
Low carbohydrates
fitness bread
suitable for the
evenings.

20. The Examples: Industry Response
BRINGING
BREAD
BACK INTO
FASHION

21. Trend: HIGH in PROTEIN

22. The Examples: High Protein
Japan: Pound Cake
Mix. Added protein. It
is a rich moist cake
mix flavor.
Body Attack
Protein Pancake
is composed of
36 grams of highquality protein
and sweetened
with Stevia
7g of protein per serve.
Contains hulled hemp
seeds that provide a
perfect vegan source of
protein, omega 3 and
essential amino acids.
Dr Zak’s protein bread is
a nutritional revolution for
athletes and body
builders, who traditionally
have shied away from
bread due to their very
high carbohydrate and
low protein content.
High protein bread
for enhanced
muscle
development.

23. The Examples: High Protein & Low Carbohydrate
This new high protein and low carb bread
evening bread
This bread only contains a minimal proportion of
carbohydrates, but has a high content of protein and is
suitable for those following a weight management diet.
2 in 1 day and night bread
The white or ‘day’ side is packed with
grains and carbohydrates to ensure
consumers are satisfied at breakfast
time.
While the brown or ‘night’ side of the
loaf is specifically dedicated to wheat
and soy protein.

25. Trend : Sugar Free or Reduced Sugar
The Facts
• Approximately 1 million Australians have been diagnosed
with diabetes.
• If diabetes continues to rise at the current rates, up to 3 million
Australians over the age of 25 years will have diabetes by the
year 2025.
• For type 2, this is likely driven by rising obesity, the ageing
population, dietary changes, and sedentary lifestyles.
• Obesity is a major contributor to type 2 diabetes with estimates
showing that eliminating obesity from the population can
potentially reduce the incidence of type 2 diabetes by over 40%.

26. The Examples: Sugar Free or Reduced Sugar
Suitable for
diabetics.
Gluten free.
Suitable for
coeliacs.
D-tick is a food approval
program designed to make it
easy for people managing their
blood sugar to identify healthy
food options.
Low fat. Low calories.
With vitamins and
minerals. Sugar free.
25% less sugar.
No artificial
colors or flavors.
Diabetic friendly. Sprouted
grains. Suitable for vegan.
Certified organic grains. Low
glycemic.
Sans Sucre created
the sugar-free
brownie mix for
those trying to cut
back on their sugar,
fat, cholesterol and
calorie intake.

27. CALORIE CONTROLLED

28. Trend: Junk Health
• New trend that has emerged from the Health and Wellness
mega trend.
• To deter consumers thoughts of ‘junk’ foods manufacturers
are taking products and transforming them into the ‘better for
you’ category with the use of technology.
• Products containing probiotics, added protein and ‘fat
blocking’ ingredients are beginning to hit the shelves.
• Calorie content claims are also making there way back to
labels as calorie controlled diet plans are increasing in
popularity.

29. The Examples: Calorie Controlled
Indulgence
Calorie content is
displayed, reduced
fat & sugar, added
vitamins & minerals,
all natural.
51 calories
per slice.
Health
Only 90 calories. Contains 9g
protein. 0g sugar. 74% fewer
net carbs than 2 slices of
wheat bread.
Convenience
80 calories
per slice.
Excellent
source of
fiber.
Contains only 40
calories per slice.
Contains 110 calories

30. Trends # and # :
“The New Convenience”

31. Trend: Breakfast on the Move
Australians spent
Food spend outweighs drinks spend four-to-one
$11.8bn on breakfast in 2012
$2.20 $2.25 $2.56
$1.69
$1.14
The average Australian ate breakfast…
what
when where
5.3
Food
Drinks
Retail
$1.19
who
60%
17%
Foodservice
20%
3%
Breakfast consumption predominantly occurs
in the home
At home
times a week in 2012.
This equates to around 79 skipped breakfasts per
person per year
Source: Datamonitor analysis
BREAKFAST
SPEND
Spend
per day
At work/school
Third place
On the move

32. Trend: Breakfast On the Move Meal
Rate of growth in occasions per adult per year (compound annual growth rate),
by location, 2011–16
AT-HOME MEALS ARE ON THE DECLINE
By 2016, Australian adults will eat 15.7 fewer breakfasts at home. Conversely, meals and snacks
consumed at a “third place” will rise at the fastest rate, as consumers spend less time planning and
preparing meals, and as the value proposition of foodservice outlets improves.
Source: Datamonitor analysis

33. The Examples: Breakfast Alternatives

34. The Examples: Bakery kits and par-baked
products
Homemade No Knead Bread
Mix.
Just break and bake
Just break apart the
refrigerated dough,
place onto a cookie
sheet and bake in your
oven. In just a few
minutes, enjoy a warm
chocolatey cookie.
A new yeast bread mix that is
ready in less than an hour. Simply
Homemade allows home bakers
to prepare fresh baked bread in
three easy steps – just stir, rise
and bake.
Tesco Easy
Home Bake
Baking mix without
ingredients to add
Ready to bake sliced bread

36. Trend: Sustainability and Ethics
Mega-trend
Trend
Sub-trend
Resource Scarcity
Environmental
Responsibility
Biodiversity
SUSTAINABILITY
& ETHICS
Social
Responsibility
Cruelty-Free
Fairly Traded
Regional is the new global!
There is an increase in focus on
product source consequently
driving interest in provenance and
‘artisan’ products. Consumers want
to know where their choice products
are coming from as it creates an
added appeal of history, tradition
and culture to the brand and
product experience.

37. The Examples: Sustainability and Ethics
Compostable ‘breadbox’ meeting sustainable
requirements of concerned consumers
It has been designed to
hold a quarter loaf of bread.
Palm Free or certified sustainable
palm bakery products
Edible labels and bar-codes
Can be stuck to the wet surface of a loaf or
pastry and are then safe for the consumer
to eat along with the product.
Woolworths
announces
removal of
caged hen
eggs by 2018

39. Trend: Access Anything, Anytime
A virtual supermarket for on-the-go shoppers
• Consumers are more connected than ever before in human history
• 60% of the Australian population now owns a smartphone.
• You Tube is the 2nd largest search engine in the world and 4th most visited
site online
• 93% of the world’s population under the age of 40 have joined social
networks
• Social networking surpassed emails 2.5 years ago
• Over 70 million business professionals are on Linkedin
Major supermarket goes mobile
In an Australian first, Woolworths launched an app
allowing consumers to grocery shop from their mobile
phone, with purchases delivered to their home or work
at a convenient time for them. The app offers
customers more choice in how and when they do their
grocery shopping. Moreover, the functionality and
versatility of the app makes it useful to shoppers at
various stages of the path to purchase, and is certain
to boost adoption of online shopping in Australia.
Online grocery shopping in Australia ($
millions), by device, 2011-16
2011
spend
PC
Tablet
Smartphone
TOTAL
2016
spend
CAGR
2011-16
1,487
2,673
12.4%
23
146
45.0%
8
39
38.9%
1,517
2,858
13.5%

40. • Social Media has changed the world
• Link

42. AB Mauri
Global Expertise, Local Knowledge
We Know Baking!
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