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The Diversity Explosion

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Learn more about Diversity Explosion:
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2014/11/diversity-explosion
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At its optimistic best, America has embraced its identity as the world’s melting pot. Today it is on the cusp of becoming a country with no racial majority, and new minorities are poised to exert a profound impact on U.S. society, economy, and politics.

Through a compelling narrative and eye-catching charts and maps, eminent demographer William H. Frey interprets and expounds on the dramatic growth of minority populations in the United States. He finds that without these expanding groups, America could face a bleak future: this new generation of young minorities, who are having children at a faster rate than whites, is infusing our aging labor force with vitality and innovation.

Diversity Explosion shares the good news about diversity in the coming decades, and the more globalized, multiracial country that U.S. is becoming.

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The Diversity Explosion

  1. 1. DIVERSITY EXPLOSION HOW NEW RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS! ARE REMAKING AMERICA #DiversityExplosion
  2. 2. U.S. white and minority populations, 1970-2050 Millions 225 200 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 175 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 150 125 Minorities Minorities Whites Minorities Source: U.S. censuses and Census Bureau projections, various years. 100 censuses and Census Bureau projections, various years. 75 50 25 0 Whites Source: analysis of US Census data 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  3. 3. 21st Century Racial Population Trends - Rapid growth of “new minorities” - Diminished growth and rapid aging of whites - Black advances and migration reversals - Shift to “no racial majority” nation
  4. 4. Demographic Dynamics Diversity by Migration “from the melting pot, out” Age 4% 4% Diversity by Generation “from the bottom, up” Under 5 5–17 18–35 35–49 50–64 65–74 85+ 51% 55% 58% 64% 73% 79% 85% 22% 20% 16% 10% 7% 5% 25% 4% 5% 5% 14% 4% 14% 13% 12% 11% 9% 7% 1
  5. 5. Age Under 5 5–17 18–35 35–49 50–64 65–74 85+ 51% 51% 55% 55% 58% 58% 64% 64% 73% 73% 79% 79% 85% 85% 25% 22% 22% 20% 20% 16% 16% 10% 10% 7% 7% 5% 5% 25% 11% 9% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 14% 14% 14% 4% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 9% 7% 7% Cultural Generation Gap Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010 Source: analysis of US Census data Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics 2+ races Other races
  6. 6. Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010-40 2015 Source: analysis of US Census data FIGURE 2-5 Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40 Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40 POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40 POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS Ratio TOTAL POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2030 2035 2015 2020 2025 2040 2010 2020 2025 2030 Old-age dependency ratio (Population age 65 and above as percent of population age 18–64). 2020 2030 2040 Youth dependency ratio (Population under age 18 as percent of population age 18–64). 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2025 2020 2035 2030 2040 Old-age dependency ratio (Population age 65 and above as percent of population age 18–64). dependency ratio 2010 Population under age 18 as percent of population age 18–64). 2015 2025 2035 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Old-age dependency ratio (Population age 65 and above dependency ratio Population under age 18 as Old-age Dependency Ratio Youth Dependency Ratio as percent of population age 18–64). percent of population age 18–64).
  7. 7. Demographic Dynamics Age 4% 4% Diversity by Generation “from the bottom, up” Diversity by Migration “from the melting pot, out” Under 5 5–17 18–35 35–49 50–64 65–74 85+ 51% 55% 58% 64% 73% 79% 85% 22% 20% 16% 10% 7% 5% 25% 4% 5% 5% 14% 4% 14% 13% 12% 11% 9% 7% 1
  8. 8. Melting Pot, New Sun Belt, and Heartland America Melting Pot New Sun Belt Heartland San Francisco Los Angeles Houston Miami Chicago New York City Source: analysis of US Census data
  9. 9. Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanics Destinations Hispanic concentration/ modest growth (33 metros) Hispanic concentration/ fast growth (44 metros) New Hispanic destinations (145 metros) Charlotte Omaha Atlanta Source: analysis of US Census data
  10. 10. Counties with Minority Overrepresentation Blacks Hispanics Asians Other 2+ races None Source: analysis of US Census data
  11. 11. Metropolitan Chicago and Atlanta Black Populations, 1970-2010 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Chicago Atlanta millions Source: analysis of US Census data
  12. 12. Trends Towards Integration - Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
  13. 13. Percent of Residents Residing in Suburbs, top 100 metros 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 74 78 54 57 62 47 54 59 51 44 37 77 Source: analysis of US Census data White Asian Hispanic Black
  14. 14. Trends Towards Integration - Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs - Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
  15. 15. FIGURE 9-1 Black-Segregation: Average Levels for Metropolitan Areas, 1930–2010 Segregation levela Black-White Average Segregation Level, 1930-2010 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: Cutler, Claeser and Vigdor (1991) Appendix A1 for 1930–1980, U.S. Census, 1990–2010.
  16. 16. Trends Towards Integration - Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs - Reduced Neighborhood Segregation - Multiracial Marriage and Identity
  17. 17. Multiracial Marriages as a Percent of all Marriages 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008-2010 NEW MARRIAGES 4.6% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ALL MARRIAGES 0.4% 0.7% 3.2% 6.7% 8.4% 15.2%
  18. 18. Trends Towards Integration - Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs - Reduced Neighborhood Segregation - Multiracial Marriage and Identity - Extending the Political Battleground
  19. 19. Minorities as Share of Eligible Voters, 2012 Under 5% 5%-14% 15%-24% 25%-34% 34% and over
  20. 20. States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates 2004 Election Democrat win Democrat win, due to minority support Republican win
  21. 21. States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates 2008 Election Democrat win Democrat win, due to minority support Republican win
  22. 22. States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates 2012 Election Democrat win Democrat win, due to minority support Republican win
  23. 23. DIVERSITY EXPLOSION William Frey Senior Fellow wfrey@brookings.edu #DiversityExplosion

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