1.
NEW TECHNOLOGY
2017

2.
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

3.
LECTURE L01
INTRODUCTION

4.
Stephen Elop,
CEO Nokia 2011

5.
In 2002 Nokia had 35% of
the worlds mobile market
In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the
worlds smartphone market

6.
Falling from glory
Nokia stock price 2007-2011

7.
1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and
cables.
1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weighs almost 1kg.
1992: Sells non-mobile divisions and launches first digital GSM
phone, the Nokia 1011.
2000: Stock market value hits 186bn euros. Now worth 11bn euros.
2003: Basic 1100 phone launched. Goes on to sell 250 million units
and become the world's most popular consumer electronic device.
2011: Abandons Symbian mobile phone operating software and
switches to the Windows platform instead.
Source: Reuters/Nokia
History of a survivor

8.
The iPhone

9.
Shift in power
Source: Google

10.
Shift in power

11.
Early 2011, Elop said
in a memo they were
standing on a
burning platform

12.
How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world
around us evolved?
This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some
of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on
our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and
leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive
times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering
innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally.
Nokia, our platform is burning.
Elop’s Memo - excerpts
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop

13.
Shift in power
The Mobile Industry
before 2007
Hardware
Limitations
Mobile OS
“Mobile” Internet
Walled garden
Predefined functionality
The Mobile Industry
after 2007
Software
Full functionality
Real OS
Internet
Open
App store

14.
The iPhone Effect

15.
February 11th 2011, Nokia announced
a partnership with Microsoft

16.
September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices
and service business for $7.2 billion

17.
Is this new…?

18.
Western Union 1878
7,500 offices
12.000 employees
200,000 miles of cable

19.
https://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/western-union/

20.
Alexander G. Bell, 1876

21.
"This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously considered as
a means of communication. The device is
inherently of no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

22.
AT&T became dominant in US
communications - split up in 1982

23.
Actually this is not even rare…

24.
Britannica 1990
Sales: $650 million

25.
Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet

26.
Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere,
updated in real-time,
crowdsourced
THEN NOW

27.
And again…

28.
In January 2010, Blockbuster
operated 5,200 stores worldwide

29.
By September 2010, Blockbuster
files for bankruptcy

30.
TECHNOLOGY
IS ONE OF THE
MAJOR
FACTORS IN
CHANGE

31.
Today 3.4 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3
billions will connect
There are more mobile devices connecting to the Internet than computers
Printed newspapers and magazines are going out of business, those who
survive will go online
Bookstores are closing as sales of books decline
CD sales are dropping rapidly as online streaming increases
TV stations need to go on the internet or out of business
Social networks are shaping our lives in ways we never imagined
Amazon sells more digital books than printed books
Over 6 billion hours of video are watched each month on YouTube
Self-driving cars are taking to the roads
People are starting to lose jobs because of robots
Every day 864 million people log on to Facebook each day
People are tracking the health and activity with sensors and gathering
statistics in the cloud

32.
UNDERSTANDING
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON
PEOPLE,
BUSINESSES
AND SOCIETY

33.
CAN WE
LOOK FORWARD
3-5 YEARS
TO SEE COMING
CHANGES

34.
LIVING IN THE FUTURE

35.
Living in the future - predict how
technology will impact businesses in
the next 3-5 years

36.
“Humanity will change more in the
next 20 years than in the past 300
years” — Gerd Leonhard

37.
This was in 1991

38.
Then in 2016 this happens…

39.
Is Virtual Reality really real or just fake?

40.
WHY WAS
2016
THE TIME FOR
VIRTUAL REALITY?

41.
ADJACENT POSSIBLE
WHEN ALL
THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND
CONDITIONS ARE READY,
NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE

42.
ROOMS FAR OUT
ARE SCIENCE FICTION

43.
EXPONENTIAL
GROWTH

44.
The Age of Information

45.
1947
Programmable all-purpose electronic
computers start to have impact on big
businesses and government
Automation starts, jobs get lost
IBM mainframes
Mainframe

46.
1965
Minicomputers allow mid-sized companies
and academia to have time shared
computing power
Automation continues
Minicomputers

47.
Fifth Technological Revolution
starts
Intel 1971
The Technology Trigger 1971

48.
1981
Personal Computer allowed small
companies and individuals to own and
program computers
Generative platform
Opened up a huge revolution - created a
new industry
Personal Computers

49.
IRRUPTION

50.
1995
Opened up a new way for people to
communicate and exchange data
Generative platform,
permissionless innovation
Created new industries, transformed
businesses
3.4 billion connected
Internet

51.
FRENZY

52.
“This time it’s different”

53.
2007
The smartphone revolution takes off with
new possibilities
Powerful computer in your pocket
Access to 4 million apps
Constant access to the Internet
Smartphone

54.
PDP-8
Computer from DEC in
March 1965
Cost 18.500 USD
50.000 machines sold
12 bit architecture
32K memory
0,5 MIPS
MIPS: millions instruction per second
iPhone 6
Smartphone from
September 2015
Cost $649
Sold 10 million phones
in 3 days
64 bit architecture
128GB “capacity”
25.000 MIPS

55.
From PDP-8 to the iPhone 6
50.000 times faster
50 years
And has camera, sensors, speakers, Wi-Fi, etc…

56.
We have a supercomputer in our pocket

57.
2000 2010
iMac iPhone
iMac G3
Mac OS 9.0.4
500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
Screen - 786K pixels
Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
iPhone 4 iOS 4.0
1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
Screen - 614K pixels
Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
THE SECOND HALF OF THE
CHESSBOARD

58.
MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS
THE DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010

59.
2000 2010
SOCIAL MEDIA

60.
3+ BILLION PEOPLE
ARE CONNECTED
TO THE INTERNET

61.
Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007
The Shortening Waves

62.
The Next Wave is built on the Smartphone Wave

63.
What does this mean?

64.
How will technology
change people’s behavior?

65.
WE EMPHASIZE
TECHNOLOGY
BUT IGNORE THE
SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT

66.
Software eats the world

67.
Intelligent Software

68.
Real-time Software

69.
Businesses are going though
Digital Transformation

70.
THE TRANSFORMATION
DECADE
2010 2020
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
20TH CENTURY
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
21TH CENTURY

71.
HIERARCHAL NETWORK
20th Century 21th Century

72.
THE
DIGITAL DECADE
THE CONTENT
ESCAPES
THE FORM
INTERNET
DISRUPTION
BEGINS
1900 2000
From hierarchical structure to networks
From broadcasting to streaming - long tail
From Read-only culture to read-write culture
The Move to Networks
THE
TRANSFORMATION
DECADE
BUSINESS MODELS
CHANGE
SMARTPHONES
REAL TIME SOFTWARE
CLOUD AND AI
2010

73.
2010 2020
Defined Industry Boundaries
Single-purpose Products
Producers and Consumers
Buying Economy
Hierarchical Structure
Platforms, ecosystems
Connected Smart Products
User as producer, co-creation
Sharing economy
Network Structure
The Transformation Decade
Broadcasting Streaming
Gatekeepers Algorithms
2010 2020

74.
MANY 2 MANY:
PEER INTERACTION
ESTABLISHED
BUSINESS MODELS
GET DISRUPTED
READ WRITE CULTURE
ONE 2 MANY:
BROADCASTING
BUSINESS
MODELS GET
ESTABLISHED
READ ONLY CULTURE
BEFORE NOW
CONTROLLED BY
GATEKEEPERS
CONTROLLED BY
CONSUMERS

75.
Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable
BEFORE NOW
THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET

76.
Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE

77.
OUR
DEVICES
ARE
GATEWAYS
TO
THE
CLOUD

78.
FUNDAMENTAL
SHIFT
IN
PEOPLE’S
BEHAVIOUR

79.
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONSUMING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

80.
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
PRODUCING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

81.
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONNECTING PEOPLE

82.
END
OF
CONTROL

83.
The Smartphone

84.
4+ billion people have
smartphone
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

85.
If you want to get customers to use software,
you cannot ignore mobile
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
The Internet Bubble

86.
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
And we are talking about apps not mobile web - its not a
technical question

87.
People check their smartphone
over 100 times per day

88.
Internet of Things

89.
Everyday objects get sensors and
software and connect to the Internet

90.
Thing
Smartthing
Processors
Sensors
Software
Connected smartthing
Processors
Sensors
Software
Source: HBR
Farming
system
Planters
Tillers
Tractor
Combine
harvesters
Ecosystem

91.
Smart farming

92.
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Barometer
Proximity
Light sensor
Touch screens
GPS
WiFi
Bluetooth
GSM/CDMA Cell
NFC - Near Field
Camera front
Camera back
Sensors

93.
Fitness tracking – healthy
lifestyle

94.
Jawbone UP fitness tracker

95.
Philips HUE light system

96.
iGrill thermometer

97.
Sonos sound system

98.
Real-time algorithms

99.
Using computers in the Information
era: you sit down and use the
computer just as any tool

100.
Using computers in the digital era:
The computer tells you what is
happening and what
you need to do
Real-time Algorithms

101.
Rise of online ordering and delivery
services

102.
Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks

103.
The 20th century society structure was
hierarchical – government, companies,
any form of communication
Coordination cost is high

104.
The 21st century society becomes a
network – software connects individuals
Coordination drops to zero

105.
UBER protests

106.
Any business that is built around a
hierarchy with high coordination
cost, will be crushed by a networked
software solution with low
coordination cost

107.
The Physical blends with the Digital

108.
Augmented reality – overlaying digital
over the physical

109.
Microsoft HoloLens

110.
Gaming, instructions, design, prototyping
etc. will fundamentally change

111.
Virtual reality - completely enter the virtual world

112.
Gaming, learning, travelling, exploring,
movies, entertainment, etc. will
fundamentally change

113.
NBA is experimenting with VR

114.
Ever wanted to be in a formula 1 race?

115.
Virtual Reality surgery

116.
Virtual Reality for training and better information

117.
Machine Learning

118.
Artificial Intelligence has
been a failure for decades
– but now it is starting to
work

119.
Powerful Neural network algorithms
Cluster of thousands of fast GPU machines
Big data – lots of data
And you get something clever

120.
Learn how
to play
video
games

121.
Learn language translation – in real-time

122.
Learn language translation – in real-time

123.
“The business plans of the next
10,000 startups are easy to
forecast: Take X and add AI.”
-- Kevin Kelly

124.
Chatbots

125.
Interact with business services and experts
like you do with your friends
Facebook released an API
for chatbots
Wit.ai Bot Engine for natural
language assistance
900 million people use
Messenger

126.
Amazon Echo
Device that you can
speak with
And listens to all your
conversations

127.
We are seeing the transformation of old
established physical ways of doing business into
new ways that are optimized around real-time
software systems – this is called Digital
Transformation

128.
New Technology
2017