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L07 Diffusion of Innovation

In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community.

In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

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L07 Diffusion of Innovation

  1. 1. LECTURE L07 DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION
  2. 2. What motivates people to buy products? Why do good products fail? Why are some companies so successful? What motivates people? What is the tipping point? The Law of Diffusion of Innovation The Golden Circle Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Agenda
  3. 3. Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough” products can succeed? What are the customers really buying? Edison Phonograph Sony Betamax Apple Lisa
  4. 4. Tomas Edison
  5. 5. Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
  6. 6. Enrico Caruso 1873-1921
  7. 7. Edison’s ideas for the phonograph 1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation 2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people 3. The teaching of elocution. 4. Reproduction of music. 5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons. 6. Music-boxes and toys. 7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc. 8. The preservation of languages 9. Educational purposes 10. Connection with the telephone http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html
  8. 8. Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
  9. 9. Phonograph Conclusion Customers wanted music by their favourite singers - the stars Disk are more convenient
  10. 10. Porn Industry Licensing Issues Betamax standard tape was 60 minutes while VHS was 2 hours Betamax Failure
  11. 11. Customers wanted to record and/or rent movies Legal issues also played some part And the Porn Industry was forced to adopt VHS Betamax Conclusions
  12. 12. Development started 1978 Release 1983 Sold 100.000 machines Featured preemptive multi-
 tasking OS with Graphical User Interface Apple Lisa Failure
  13. 13. The vision was right Technology just was not there Too many features Apple Lisa Conclusions
  14. 14. Adjacent Possible It was not the time for Graphical User Interfaces with Mouse input
  15. 15. Customer Motivations Customer are not always buying products for the reason the inventor thinks
  16. 16. VisiCalc
  17. 17. Technological change is relatively easy
  18. 18. It’s the social, organisational and cultural change that is hard
  19. 19. Innovations that will transform the world
  20. 20. Self-driving car
  21. 21. Virtual Reality
  22. 22. How does new technology diffuse into a market?
  23. 23. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation Diffusion of Innovation
  24. 24. TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  25. 25. In the early days The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  26. 26. In the early days THEY BUY FOR THE WHY In the later days THEY BUY FOR THE WHAT Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  27. 27. VISIONARIES WHY Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  28. 28. Why is Apple so successful when other companies fail?
  29. 29. APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND 
 ALMOST BANKRUPT IN 1997 IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST 
 VALUABLE COMPANY 
 IN THE WORLD
  30. 30. image: cultformac
  31. 31. AAPL Apple stock from 1997 to 2015
  32. 32. Why do people wait in line for many hours to get a product you can get later without depay And other products, cheaper, already do more It makes no sense
  33. 33. You have to look into their brain NEO CORTX: RATIONAL, ANALYTICAL THOUGHT, LANGUAGE LIMBIC SYSTEM: FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY, BEHAVIOUR, DECISION MAKING REPTILIAN: INSTINCTS, HUNGER, DANGER
  34. 34. People’s actions and decision are (almost) always motivated by self-interest
  35. 35. Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Action
 Simon Sinek TED Lecture
  36. 36. Is this all it takes? Formula for Success Strong funding Right people Market conditions
  37. 37. Samuel Pierpont Langley
  38. 38. WHY HOW WHAT The Golden Circle
  39. 39. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation VISIONARIES WHY
  40. 40. Source: Geoffrey A. Moore: Crossing the chasm Crossing the Chasm The change in customers as technology matures
  41. 41. What triggers the tipping point?
  42. 42. What caused the tipping point for the iPod? Apple said it sold a record 22.7 million iPods, which commands a 70% share of the U.S. market for music players. (source: LA times)
  43. 43. No, it was not just the white earbuds. It’s the whole experience thing
  44. 44. Apple iPod Sales
  45. 45. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
  46. 46. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are: 1.Critical Price 2.Critical Mass 3.Displace another technology 4.Become nearly free Theory of Predicting the Future
  47. 47. NEXT Becoming invisible

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