At any given moment it is easy to look back to see how technology has changed over time. At the same time it is difficult to see what transformations are taking place in current moment, and even more difficult to see where things are going. We will explore what technology is. For us it may be the latest tech stuff we see, something new. But what about everyday objects that we take for granted. Are those not technologies also? How does technology evolve and where did it come from? We look at some ideas on evolution of technology and how it is similar to biology in some ways. We will also look at the origin of the word technology. Finally we will define the term we will use in the course. Terms defined are technology, product performance, and innovation to name few.

1. LECTURE L02
EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGY

2. Agenda
Evolution of Technology
The 7th Kingdom
What is Technology
Product Development
The Long View

3. Reading
Evolution of Technology
The 7th Kingdom
What is Technology
Product Development
The Long View

4. The Next Wave will be built previous waves
Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007

5. Evolution of technology is closely
linked with the evolution of mankind
Evolution

6. Use of technology have been with mankind
for millions of years
Evolution

7. Charles Darwin published
On The Origin of Species in 1852
Evolution

8. Evolutionary Process
Each generation
breeds the next
generation,
becomes and input
for the next
Natural selection
Survival of the fittest

9. Samuel Butler
published 1859
a letter to the editor of
the Press
in New Zealand, called
“Darwin among the
Machines”
Kingdom of the machines

10. Evolutionary Process

11. Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom

13. Kevin Kelly’s
The 7th Kingdom
There are many
similarities with
evolution of biology
and technology
Both follow
evolutionary process

14. Is technology something new?

15. Is this technology?
Common object that existed
when we were born

16. All technology was once new
Is this technology?

17. You can only see the evolution by looking back
All technology was once new

18. ?
And you should know it will change in the future — so
never dismiss a new primitive and clunky new gadget
All technology was once new

19. All technology was once new
What about this device?

20. Technology invented
by Johannes
Gutenberg in the
15th century
Lived in Germany
Was blacksmith,
goldsmith and
merchant
The Printing Press

21. Gutenberg’s printing
press
Movable type made
of wood, pressed
with ink using a
screw
Printed 42 lines
The Printing Press

22. Technology in the 15th century

24. Bartolomeo Cristofori 1655-1731

25. Piano

27. Nocturne
Op. 9 No 2
Fr
18

28. Johann Sebastian Bach would only in
1747 approve the piano

29. We think it is something new
New technology is emotional
Technology
Old technology is taken for granted

30. Techne is greek for art or skill
Logos is greek for word, speech
Technology
First used by Aristotle

31. Technology
The word “technology” was
used in 1801 by Johann
Beckmann (1739-1811), a
German scientific author and
teacher

32. The Effects of Good Government, a fresco in the
City Hall of Siena by Ambrogio Lorenzetti, 1338.

33. Kevin Kelly: What Technology Wants

35. Definition of Technology

36. Process by which an organisation transforms labor,
capital, material, and information into products and
services of greater values
Technology

41. The value you get out of a product for which you have
paid some cost
Product Performance

42. 1977
Apple II $1,298
4.000 bytes memory
Motorola 6502 1MHz
2007
iMac 17-inch $1,199
1.000.000.000 bytes memory
Intel 2.0GHz

43. 2000 2010
iMac iPhone
iMac G3
Mac OS 9.0.4
500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
Screen - 786K pixels
Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
iPhone 4 iOS 4.0
1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
Screen - 614K pixels
Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
THE SECOND HALF OF THE
CHESSBOARD

45. Innovation
The change in the technology

46. Product Development

47. Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet
Smartphone
2007
Waves of technologies

48. Product Development
Products that are built based on older
technologies follow a specific path from initial
idea to a mature stable product

49. The S-curve
Improvements in
performance
varies throughout
the life of the
technology

50. Problem is that
people in
the R&D phase may
not be right in the
growth phase
The S-curve

51. Exponential trends
can be composed of
a sequence of S-
curves where each
curve is faster
The S-curve

52. Exponential trends
can be composed of
a sequence of S-
curves where each
curve is faster
The S-curve

53. Technology Life Cycle
Describes the
commercial gain of a
product through the
expense of research
and development
phase, and the
financial return during
its "vital life"

54. In the early days
The innovators and technology
enthusiasts drive the market
They demand technology
Small percentage of the market
In the later days
The pragmatists and conservatives
dominate; they want solutions and
convenience
The big market
Technology Life Cycle

55. The Long View of Technology

56. 200018001600140012001000800
ComplexityofTechnology
Time
EXPONENTIAL
GROWTH

57. http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg
Evolution of the
human brain

58. Evolutionary Process

59. 200018001600140012001000800
ComplexityofTechnology
Time
With all the technology in the last 200 years,
how was life before that?

60. What about in the year 79?

61. Pompeii

62. The oldest body in history

64. Life was Local and Liniar

65. Until it became Global and Exponetial

66. L03 Exponential World
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Please note: Video Lecture — No class due to travelling