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Prévisions de l’OCDE pendant et après la crise financière: un post mortem

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La présentation se penche sur les performances de l'OCDE en matière de prévisions pour la période 2007-12. Elle s’intéresse aux enseignements qui peuvent être tirés des différentes erreurs de prévision de croissance d’un pays à l’autre et aux changements que l’expérience de la crise a provoqués en termes de modèles et de méthodes de prévision.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Prévisions de l’OCDE pendant et après la crise financière: un post mortem

  1. 1. PRÉVISIONS DE L’OCDE PENDANT ET APRÈS LA CRISE FINANCIÈRE : UN POST-MORTEM Jean-Luc Schneider Département des Affaires Economiques 10 Février 2014
  2. 2. La crise et la reprise ont été exceptionnelles 2
  3. 3. La crise a été mal prévue… 3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Forecasts of GDP growth in 2008 Outturn % -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Forecasts of GDP growth in 2009 Outturn % Prévisions successives de la croissance (Q4 sur Q4) dans l’OCDE
  4. 4. …et la reprise pas très bien non plus 4 Prévisions successives de la croissance (Q4 sur Q4) dans l’OCDE
  5. 5. Les erreurs de prévisions sont comparables à celles qui ont été commises durant le premier choc pétrolier 5
  6. 6. Les erreurs concernant la France ont été plus faibles que dans les autres pays du G7 6 Error in GDP growth forecast Le reste du G7 montre la moyenne non pondérée des erreurs
  7. 7. Les erreurs ont été plus fortes dans les pays vulnérables de la zone euro 7
  8. 8. Deux approches : 1. Confronter les erreurs aux données disponibles à l’époque Ces données auraient pu être mieux utilisées dans les prévisions 2. Confronter les erreurs aux données disponibles aujourd’hui Ces données permettent de comprendre les chocs externes qui ont affecté la qualité des prévisions 8 Comment expliquer les erreurs ? Auraient-elles pu être évitées ?
  9. 9. Le ralentissement a été plus fort que prévu dans les économies plus ouvertes Erreurs cumulées sur 2008 et 2009 dans les prévisions de PIB de Mai 2008 9 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 0 50 100 Foreign banks' assets (% total) Forecasterror(%pt) -16 -12 -8 -4 0 0 100 200 Trade openness Forecasterror(%pt)
  10. 10. Les prévisions ont été trop optimistes là où les banques étaient peu capitalisées 10 -8 -4 0 4 8 8 12 16 20 Bank regulatory capital in 2007 (%) Forecasterror(%pt) Growth forecast errors for 2010-11, from May 2010
  11. 11. Les prévisions ont été moins précises dans les pays les plus régulés 11 Les indicateurs de régulation utilisés sont ceux de l’OCDE pour les marché de produit et pour la protection de l’emploi.
  12. 12. A-t-on sous-estimé les effets de la rigueur budgétaire ? 12
  13. 13. L’intensification de la crise européenne a été une source plus importante d’erreur 13
  14. 14. OECD countries: 2007-12 Accelerations Decelerations Number in period 56 116 % correct: projections for same year 86 88 % correct: projections for next year 91 46 14 Leçon n°1 : améliorer la prévision des retournements Exactitude directionnelle des prévisions de croissance de Mai G7 countries: 1982-2006 Accelerations Decelerations Number in period 82 78 % correct: projections for same year 79 83 % correct: projections for next year 74 45
  15. 15. 15 Leçon n°2 : mieux prendre en compte le système financier Une augmentation unitaire de l’indice implique une amélioration des conditions financière provoquant une augmentation du PIB de ½% à 1% après 4 à 6 trimestres and liabilities as a percentage of double GDP.
  16. 16. Leçon n°3 : éviter le conformisme 16 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 From the same year OECD IMF Consensus EC %pt Average errors in forecasts from May - G7 countries -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 From one year ahead%pt Moyenne non pondéré des erreurs pour les pays du G7
  17. 17. 17 Leçon n°4 : mieux prendre en compte les effets internationaux L’ouverture financière est mesurée par la somme des actifs et passifs vis- à-vis de l’étranger en pourcentage du PIB.
  18. 18. • Davantage d’information sur les risques autour de la projection centrale • Davantage de quantification de scénarios alternatifs possibles • Identification des événements extrêmes possibles et des réponses nécessaires 18 Leçon n°5 : réfléchir davantage aux risques
  19. 19. • Les prévisions ont été difficiles depuis la crise et la croissance a été surestimée à de nombreuses reprises. • Ces erreurs nous conduisent à prendre désormais davantage en compte les liens internationaux, le système financier et les risques. • Les prévisions ne seront jamais parfaites. L’examen des risques mérite autant d’attention que le scénario central projeté. 19 Summary “Prévisions de l’OCDE pendant et après la crise financière: un post mortem” Note de Politique Economique n°23 du Département des Affaires Economiques de l’OCDE

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