OVERVIEW on CLIMATE & TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES “Enhancing Communities Capacities to Confront Extreme Geo-Meteorological Events at the Core of Climate Change” Bulwagang Juan Luna, UP, Baguio City 23 November 2009 RUSY G. ABASTILLAS Climatology and Agrometeorology Division DOST-PAGASA

1. OVERVIEW on CLIMATE &
TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES
“Enhancing Communities Capacities to Confront
Extreme Geo-Meteorological Events at the Core of
Climate Change”
Bulwagang Juan Luna, UP, Baguio City
23 November 2009
RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
DOST-PAGASA

2. Philippine The nation’s
meteorological service
Atmospheric and public weather
service provider
Geophysical
Astronomical
Services
Administration

3. NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS
58 Synoptic Stations
23 Agromet Stations
4 Radiosonde Stns.
5 Meteorological
Satellite Receiving
Facilities
10 Doppler radars
(2 years from now)

4. The Philippine Climate
…Characterized by humid equatorial
or tropical maritime
Type 4 Climate:
Type 1 Climate:
Rainfall more or less evenly
Two pronounced seasons: dry from
distributed throughout the year.
November to April, wet during the rest
of the year.
Type 2 Climate:
Type 3 Climate: Monthly Rainfall of Port A
Monthly Rainfall of Tagbilaran Manila (Type I) IV)
rea, City, Bohol (Type
Baguio City
No dry season with a pronounced
Seasons not very pronounced,
500 200
450 180
maximum rainfall from NovemberApril
relatively dry from November to to
400
160
January. during the rest of the year.
and wet 350
140
120
M onthly Rainfall of Le gaspi City (Type II)
Rainfall (mm)
300 Monthly Rainfall of Tuguegarao, Cag. (Type III)
Rainfall (mm)
100
250
600 300
80
200
500 60
250
150
40
100
200
400 20
Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall (mm)
50
0
150
300 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
0
Month
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
100
200
Climate Type I IV
Climate Type
50
100
0
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mean annual rr=2379.3
Dipolog Month
Month
Infanta =3967.3
Climate Type II III
Climate Type
Hinatuan =4168.3 Gen San

5. Monthly Normal Rainfall of Baguio City (1971-2000) Normal Temperature (Maximum, Minimum,Mean) of
Baguio City (1971-2000)
1000.0 30.0
900.0
800.0
25.0
Rainfall in mm
700.0 20.0
Rainfall in mm
600.0
500.0 15.0
400.0
10.0
300.0
200.0 5.0
100.0
0.0
0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month TMax TMin TMean Month
Annual mean temperature of Baguio City (1971-2005)
20.5
20.0
Temp in °C
19.5
19.0
y = 0.0071x + 19.358
18.5
18.0
17.5
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
annual mean temp Linear (annual mean temp)

6. Climatic controls that influence the climate in the Philippines
• geography and topography – large hilly terrain, and coastal plains
• semi-permanent lows and highs – produces airstreams /ocean currents
• air streams
- southwesterlies (SW monsoon)- Apr-Sep
- northeasterlies (NE monsoon) –Oct- Mar
- easterlies (North Pacific trades) – transition period
• ocean currents = SST average 27.4C Phil. Sea • influenced by complex
• linear systems interactions
- ITCZ • rainfall variability
- cold front
- easterly waves • threatened by ECEs
• tropical cyclones • various sectors affected
• Devastating impacts could be mitigated
• ENSO phenomenon through clear understanding of the
complex mechanisms and dev’t of
effective forecast tools.

7. Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines
NORTHEAST
MONSOON
(AMIHAN)
TROPICAL
CYCLONE
L
L L
L
SOUTHWEST INTERTROPICAL
MONSOON CONVERGENCE
(HABAGAT) ZONE (ITCZ)

8. ITCZ L ITCZ L
ITCZ
L ITCZ
L
ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END)
AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING
SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

9. Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the Philippines
AVERAGE RAINFALL AVERAGE RAINFALL
APRIL-SEPTEMBER OCTOBER-MARCH
First (1951-2000) Second (1951-2000)
semestral semestral
Cold air from
Siberia

10. Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines
Period: 1948-2005
Northern Luzon is most
frequently hit by tropical
cyclones followed by
Catanduanes and Northern
Samar and least in the
Mindanao area.
Monthly Average Frequency of Tropical Cyclone
in the PAR
3.5
3.0
No. of Tropical Cyclones
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

11. Climate Variability /ENSO

13. IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
Legend:
Severe drought
impacts
Drought impacts
with major losses
Moderate drought
impacts
Near normal to
above normal
condition
Way above
normal condition
Potential for
flood damage
Severe flood
damage
RED colored years are EL NINO
years, BLUE colored years are LA
NINA years and BLACK colored
years are NON_ENSO years

14. TRENDS…
 Temperature
 Rainfall
 Tropical Cyclones

15. Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006

16. Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006

17. Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures
almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures

18. Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines*
Period: 1961 – 2003
Trend in the frequency of days with Trend in the frequency with minimum
maximum temperature above the 1961- temperature above the 1961-1990 mean
1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days). 99th percentile (Warm nights).
Significant Significant
increase in the increase in the
frequency of frequency of
hot days warm nights
 Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights.
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

19. Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines*
Period: 1961 – 2003
(Cool days). (Cold nights).
Significant Significant
decrease in decrease in
the number the number
of cold days of cool nights
• Significant decrease in the number of cold days and cool nights.
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

20. Trend in Annual Total
Rainfall* (1961 – 2003) Total
Annual
Rainfall
• Decreases in the top
northern part of
Luzon and Southern
Luzon.
• Increases in the Bicol
Region (except Daet),
Visayas and
Mindanao
• Findings not
statistically
significant
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

21. Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean
Frequency of tropical Cyclones
31
y = -0.0104x + 19.755
26
21
16
11
6
1
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)

22. TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES
250
1971-00
1951-80
1961-90
200
51-80
Number
150
61-90
71-00
100
50
0
LUZON
Luzon VISAYAS
Visayas
MINDANAO
Mindanao

23. Mean Number of Tropical Cyclones during Normal, El Niño and La
Niña Years
12
10
TC Frequency
8
6
4
2
0
JFM (QTR1) AMJ (QTR 2) JAS (QTR3) OND (QTR4)
Normal Years La Niña Years El Niño Years
La Niña El Niño
Year Normal Years Years Years
JFM (QTR1) 1.21 1.24 0.38
AMJ (QTR 2) 3.29 2.87 2.38
JAS (QTR3) 9.91 8.86 8.85
OND (QTR4) 6.55 6.79 4.56
Total 20.96 19.76 16.17

24. Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with
the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005)
% of Rainfall
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Station Names
NAIA 429
PortArea 425
Science Garden 430
Sangley Point 428
Vigan 222
Tuguegaro 233
Baguio City 328
Dagupan 325
Iba, Zam bales 324
Cubi Pt,Subic 426
Am bulong 432
Calapan 431
Puerto Princes a 618
Cuyo 630
Coron 526
Itbayat 132
Bas co Synop 135
Calayan 133
Aparri 232
Cabanatuan 330
Cas iguran 336
Alabat 435
Infanta 434
Rom blon 536
Mas bate 543
Daet 440
Legas pi 444
Virac Synop 446
Virac Radar 447
Roxas City 538
Iloilo 637
Catarm an 546
Catbalogan 548
Tacloban City 550
Dum aguete 642
Mactan 646
Maas in 648
Surigao City 653
Hinatuan 755
Dipolog 741
Lum bia 747
Cagayan De Oro 748
Malaybalay 751
Davao 753
Zam boanga 836
% Annual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems

25. HIGHLIGHTS:
 The Philippines is highly vulnerable to the
impacts of tropical cyclones: flooding,
high winds, storm surges and landslides.
 Increasing trend in annual mean
temperature
 No trend in rainfall pattern
 No trend in the total number of annual
tropical cyclones

26. RECENT DEVASTATING TROPICAL
CYCLONES
1. Ondoy (Ketsana)
2. Pepeng (Parma)

27. P A R LINE
P
A
R
L
I
N
E
P
A
R
L
I
N
E
P A R LINE
On September 26, shortly before noon in (around 0400 UTC), Ketsana made its landfall
at the border of Aurora and Quezon provinces, packed with maximum winds of 85 km/h
near the center and gustiness of up to 100 km/h.

28. TS Ondoy brought the worst rainfall to Metro Manila among recorded typhoons since
the start of rainfall record keeping , producing only moderate winds but hours of
extremely heavy rains. Metro Manila experienced the highest rainfall in history that
brought heavy flooding.
PAGASA documented a record-high amount of rainfall in 24 hours at 455 mm
(17.9 in) recorded during September 26). And also, the amount of rainfall recorded
for six hours, which was 341.3 mm (13.44 in), was comparable to the 24 hour rainfall
in 1967.
SCIENCE GARDEN Greatest Daily RR = 334.5 mm ( June 7, 1967).

29. 24-Hr Rainfall at Selected Stations
24-Hr Rainfall during the
500.0
Passage of TS “Ondoy”
Rainfall Amt in mm.
(Sept. 24-27, 2009)
400.0
300.0
200.0
STATION NAME 24 25 26 27
100.0 IBA 15.0 8.2 103.8 40.0
PORT AREA 10.4 41.3 258.5 7.0
0.0
SUBIC BAY 6.0 50.4 127.7 55.0
IBA SUBIC BAY SCIENCE TANAY SANGLEY POINT 6.0 61.4 163.0 7.0
GARDEN SCIENCE GARDEN 1.1 94.0 455.0 6.0
Station Nam e
AMBULONG T 49.5 234.5 8.0
TANAY 0.0 141.4 331.8 13.0
24-hr RR vs Normal RR for Sept. 26, 2009 at Selected
Stations affected by TS "Ondoy"
Rainfall in mm
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
IBA PORT AREA SCIENCE SANGLEY AMBULONG
GARDEN POINT
Stations
24-hr RR Normal Sept

30. Ondoy’s Fury

31. “Ondoy’s Fury”

32. TY PEPENG (Parma) Sept.30-Oct.10

33. Rainfall Associated w/ TC Passage (Pepeng)

34. Cumulative RR (Oct. 1-10, 2009) vs. October Normal RR
Cumulative Rainfall (Oct. 1- 10, 2009) vs October Normal
2500
2250
TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT
2000
T
RR in mm.
1750
1500
Y
1250
1000
750
500
P 250
0
e
T
SU
O
G
AN
A
AO
UE
Z
IO
RI
N
N
A
O
IB
C
A
PA
UA
R
U
AY
B
G
G
UÑ
AS
O
AR
PA
AG
VI
HA
LA
U
AT
B
B
EG
M
AG
A
IT
B
EC
AN
U
D
G
AB
TU
C
p
Stations
e
n STATIONS
ITBAYAT
TOT_OCT1-10
303.6
NOR_OCT
478.7
Extreme Rainfall (24-hr)
678.2 8-Jun-1981
Highest
106.1
Day
6-Oct-09
g
BASCO 281.3 429.2 616.4 27-Oct-1991 95.0 7-Oct-09
VIGAN 1005.3 154.3 594.1 18-Jul-1920 417.3 4-Oct-09
LAOAG 843.4 143.6 564.2 4-Sep-1913 402.6 4-Oct-09
APARRI 338.6 359.5 453.1 22-Nov-1973 154.5 3-Oct-09
TUGUEGARAO 508.5 324.4 349.7 22-Nov-1973 188.7 3-Oct-09
ECHAGUE 238.2 239.6 111.9 8-Oct-09
IBA 236.7 273.7 623.7 21-Sep-1935 99.8 3-Oct-09
DAGUPAN 759.7 200.6 722.6 27-May-2003 443.5 8-Oct-09
BSU 2169.2 290.2 761.8 8-Oct-09
BAGUIO 1876.5 461.8 1085.8 4-Jul-2001 685.0 8-Oct-09
MUÑOZ 302.1 201.7 208.0 8-Oct-09
CABANATUAN 267.5 207.3 406.1 28-Jul-1952 96.2 8-Oct-09

35. Daily RR at Selected
Stations in Luzon
(Oct. 1-10, 2009)
Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Decadal Highest 24-hr
ITBAYAT 0.2 8.0 67.9 25.2 16.1 106.1 12.0 48.0 19.3 0.8 303.6 106.1
BASCO 0.0 14.2 31.6 0.8 8.7 69.6 95.0 50.2 11.0 0.2 281.3 95.0
VIGAN 0.0 31.7 168.9 417.3 126.2 75.4 68.6 111.8 5.4 0.0 1005.3 417.3
LAOAG CITY 0.0 10.7 90.6 402.6 197.3 47.5 60.0 33.0 1.7 0.0 843.4 402.6
APARRI 0.0 34.0 154.5 0.0 8.0 35.1 82.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 338.6 154.5
TUGUEGARAO 0.0 90.3 188.7 0.0 4.8 23.5 129.7 71.5 0.0 0.0 508.5 188.7
ECHAGUE 0.0 29.6 0.0 0.1 2.6 94.0 111.9 0.0 238.2 111.9
IBA T 52.6 99.8 0.0 0.2 3.4 19.7 47.4 13.6 0.0 236.7 99.8
DAGUPAN CITY T 25.5 159.5 8.0 T 36.2 52.0 443.5 35.0 0.0 759.7 443.5
BSU 2.1 23.7 410.7 72.9 2.2 471.8 346.9 761.8 77.1 2169.2 761.8
BAGUIO CITY 0.4 20.0 531.0 38.2 4.6 260.0 276.0 685.0 61.3 0.0 1876.5 685.0
MUÑOZ 0.2 18.5 0.0 0.5 10.7 63.8 208.0 0.4 0.0 302.1 208.0
CABANATUAN CITY 20.0 24.8 65.4 0.0 2.3 2.0 54.8 96.2 2.0 0.0 267.5 96.2

36. “Pepeng’s Fury”

37. Thank
You!!!