Rising of ISIS, Future

1. ISIS
A GATHERING STORM

2. The Five Year Plan

3. RISE OF ISISRISE OF ISIS
The al-Qaeda offshoot in Iraq, which called itself Islamic
State of Iraq, announced it was merging with Jabhat Al-
Nusra, the "approved" al-Qaeda offshoot in Syria which was
fighting the Assad regime alongside other rebel groups.
It said it would from now on be called Islamic State of Iraq
and al-Sham – al-Sham referring to the historical Levant,
including both Syria and Lebanon.
Loyalists believe that the ISIS is CIA’s creation.

4. CIA assembled a force of more than a hundred
thousand jehadis to fight the left wing government in
afghanistan so as to entice the Soviet Union into
intervening, without calculating the consequences for
itself and the world at large
U.S. also backed jehadis in Syria to topple the secular
regime of Bashar al assad turning it into jihadi crusade.

6. ISIS AND THE CALIPHATEISIS AND THE CALIPHATE
 Over a territory larger than United Kingdom and extending
from Aleppo in Syria to Iraq’s Khurdish north with Mosul,
Iraq’s second largest city as its capital, there is a new
political authority led firmly by ISIS
 JUNE 30,2014: ISIS announces creation of caliphate in
territories under its control in Iraq and Syria.

7.  IS has proclaimed leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi as
“Caliph Ibrahim” and the “Leader of muslim
everywhere”
 The Proclaimation specifies that any muslim who fails
to give his undivided allegiance to the new caliph is an
apostate and is living under the penalty of death.

9. INCREASE IN STRENGTHINCREASE IN STRENGTH
OF ISISOF ISIS
 Dismissal of half a million strong Iraqi army with
sophisticated knowledge of weapons.
 Dismantling of other parts of the state resulting in
complete breakdown of law and order
 Arrival of new sectarian elites
 Dependence of political parties on armed gangs and
illegal militia

10. SOURCE OF INCOME OFSOURCE OF INCOME OF
ISISISIS
 As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, the
organization’s key source of income is oil, especially
in the Syrian provinces of Deir al-Zour and Raqqa and
the Iraqi province of Nineveh.
 The other main source of revenue is taxation, or
rather, extortion
 The kidnapping of foreigners or wealthy Syrians for
ransom also brings in millions.

13. THINGS YOU
SHOULD KNOW
ABOUT ISIS AND
IRAQ

14. ISIS used to be al-Qaeda in Iraq
 The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIS) used to have a different name: al
Qaeda in Iraq.
 ISIS and al-Qaeda divorced in February
2014.
 Their relationship "had always been
more a matter of mutual interests than of
shared ideology."

15. The conflict between Iraqi
Sunnis and Shias sustains ISIS
ISIS fighters themselves are Sunnis, and
the tension between the two groups is a
powerful recruiting tool for ISIS.
A majority of Iraqis are Shias, but Sunnis
ran the show when Saddam Hussein,
himself Sunni, ruled Iraq.
Thus, Sunnis felt, and still feel, entitled to
larger shares of political power.

16. Iraq’s former Prime Minister
made the ISIS problem worse
Maliki, a Shia Muslim, built a Shia
sectarian state and refused to take steps
to accommodate Sunnis.
Police killed peaceful Sunni protestors and
used anti-terrorism laws to mass-arrest
Sunni civilians.
ISIS cannily exploited that brutality to
recruit new fighters.

18. ISIS has a really important base in Syria

19. ISIS isn’t the only anti-government
rebel group
This conflict often gets portrayed as a fight
between the Iraqi government and ISIS.
Iraqi government has assistance from Iran
and Shia militias, while ISIS isn't the only
group battling the Iraqi government.
The most important rebel group beyond
ISIS is Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqa al-
Naqshbandia (JRTN).

20. Sunni militiamen in 2010.

21. The Iraqi army is much stronger than
ISIS, but it’s also kind of a mess
ISIS cannot challenge the Iraqi
government for control over the country.
CIA estimates the number of ISIS fighting
strength to be between 20,00 and 31,500.
The Iraqi army has 250,000 troops, plus
armed police.
The Iraqi military also has tanks,
airplanes, and helicopters.

22. The Wider Impact of
the ISIS Rebellion
in Iraq

23. The Rising Storm
 ISIS has completely changed the
balance of power in the country.
 It threatens not just the integrity of Iraq
itself but could also lead to the redrawing
of borders across the wider region.
 Expected to deteriorate.
 Civil war.

24. The Rising Storm
 Security threat to non-muslim nations
also.
 Commercial impact.
 Immediate effect: Oil prices.
 Iranian, Jordanian and Gulf state
companies will be significantly impacted.

25. The Possibilities
 Six different scenarios.
 Due to the complexity and volatility of the
situation, other outcomes are also
possible.
 Impacts on the local, regional and global
security situation.

26. Scenario A

27. Scenario A
 Iraq descends into long-term civil war in
a Syria-style scenario.
 All neighbouring countries would be
severely impacted.
 Western countries would be subjected to
increased threats of action by militant
Islamists.
 Western companies throughout the
Muslim world would also face increased
security threats.

28. Scenario B
 Iraq splits into three parts, based on
ethno-religious identities:
 a relatively stable Kurdish north
 Arab-Shi’a south
 a contested Arab-Sunni central area.

29. Scenario B
KURD
ARAB-SUNNI
ARAB-SHIA

30. Scenario B

31. Scenario B
 The new borders are extended into
neighbouring Syria, and possibly into
Turkey and Iran.
 Could encourage groups in other Middle
Eastern countries to target similar
outcomes, adding to regional security
risks.

32. Scenario C
 As Scenario B, but with conflict
remaining contained within the existing
borders of Iraq.
 Syria, Turkey and Iran could face
insurgencies in areas bordering the old
Iraq.
 Threats to the stability of other regional
countries and the increased security
risks for Western countries.

33. Scenario C

34. Scenario D
ISIS
KURD
(CENTRAL GOVT.)

35. Scenario D
 ISIS over-stretches itself, allowing the
central government, aided by
international support, to regain control of
his country’s central region; however, in
the interim, the Kurds carve out a
separate state.
 Unrest in the Kurdish areas of Turkey,
Syria and Iran would increase.

36. Scenario E
 ISIS over-stretches itself, allowing the
central government, aided by
international support, to regain control of
Iraq.
 Security threats would be lower than in
Scenario D for Turkey, Syria and Iran,
and for Western countries and
companies.

37. Scenario E
CENTRAL GOVT.

38. Scenario F
 ISIS gains control over the whole
country.
 In terms of security all neighbouring
countries would be severely impacted.
 Western countries would be the subject
of increased threats of action by militant
Islamists.

39. Scenario F
ISIS

40. ISIS : A THREAT TO
INDIA?

41. • First look-India is not at immediate threat
from the ISIS.
• Closer look-the threat is a more imminent
one.

42. • Declaration by the newly-named Caliph,
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi:
• “Muslims’ rights are forcibly seized in
China, India, Palestine, Somalia, the
Arabian Peninsula, the Caucasus, Sham
(the Levant), Egypt, Iraq, Indonesia,
Afghanistan, the Philippines, Ahvaz, Iran,
Pakistan, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and
Morocco, in the East and in the West.

43. • Prisoners are moaning and crying for help.
Orphans and widows are complaining of
their plight. Women who have lost their
children are weeping. Masajid (plural of
masjid) are desecrated and sanctities are
violated… Terrify the enemies of Allah and
seek death in the places where you
expect to find it. Your brothers, on every
piece of this earth, are waiting for you to
rescue them”

45. EXAMPLES AND INCIDENCES
SHOWING ISIS EFFECT IN INDIA
• The disturbing case here is of Maulana
Salman Al-Husaini Nadwi, an
internationally recognised Islamic scholar
who decided against this country’s
collective wisdom to write a letter to greet
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.
• Some students in Srinagar were involved
in stone pelting, raising ISIS flags and
shouting slogans.

46. The Rahman group, wearing T-shirts bearing the
ISIS emblem, in the photo on a social networking
site.

47. Four engineering students from kalyan joined
ISIS.
Arif majeed reportedly died in bomb blast in
MOSUL

48. USMAN ALI AND HIS SON HAJA
FAKKURUDEEN

49. CONCLUSION

50. MEASURES AND POLICIES
TO CONTROL ISIS
• The objective of U.S. and Iraqi strategy is
to eventually drive ISIS fighters to ground
in cities like Mosul.
• Ground force will be needed to go into
these built up areas, conducting house-to-
house counterinsurgency operations.
• To improve these forces, the United
States has already sent about 1,400
military advisers.

51. • If the United States ends up fighting the
war on the ground, instead of local forces,
there is surprisingly a lower likelihood of
success.
• Well-trained local forces know the
language and culture and therefore have
the best intelligence on who and who is
not a guerrilla fighter.

52. • A recent report from the National
Investigation Agency (NIA) reports that
more than 300 Indian youth have been
recruited by the Pakistan-based Tehreek-
e-Taliban(TTP) which has joined hands
with ISIS.
• Hence India can no longer turn away from
this problem and has to take quick and
planned actions.
• Also deradicalisation of youth has to be
considered.