1. Strategies for success in a changing world
Nick Poole, CEO, CILIP
Bodleian Libraries Staff Conference
13th September 2023

2. Contents
Part 1. You are here
Part 2. The future is a powerful idea
Part 3. All hail the Tardigrade! (or what does ‘resilience’ look like?)
Part 4. Strategies for success

3. “The future is not some place we are going to, but one we are
creating. The paths are not to be found but made and the act
of making them changes both the maker and the destination.”
Dame Deborah James, You, Me and the Big C

4. Our own perspective on the future
To borrow an idea from art
composition, a picture can be made
up of three elements, all of which
are defined by our vantage point:
The foreground which occupies your
immediate attention
The middle ground, which puts the
foreground in an immediate context
The background, which is less
clearly-drawn but adds depth and
distance to the picture

5. Why does this matter?
The foreground can be all-encompassing for libraries – getting the doors open, running the events
programme, managing the stock, dealing with enquiries leave little time to think big thoughts about
where it’s all going.
The middle ground is changing fast – how our services are funded and managed, the relationships
we need to build, how the libraries are positioned within the University, the City and the global
learner community all have an effect on the sustainability and success of the day-to-day work.
But the background is also changing too – the nature, composition and needs of our communities
and society are changing, technology and data, the way people spend their spare time, the
development of our towns and cities, all have a big impact on library services.

6. Part 1. You are here

7. Where are we now?
“The world has experienced conflict,
droughts, wildfires, extreme political events,
dramatic increases in the cost-of-living and
the erosion of trust in civic institutions – all
with no time to breathe, recover or regroup.
In 2022, Collins English Dictionary coined
‘Permacrisis’ as its word of the year.“
Source: Accenture 2023 Life Trends report

8. Artefacts of modernity
As human beings, we are experiencing some shared, entirely new and very rational emotional responses
to the world around us:
• The financial architecture of my life is no longer reliable (1m cancelled insurance policies in 2022)*
• Algorithmic angst – are the choices I make my own or am I being manipulated?
• I can’t trust the news (regular engagement fell from 63% in 2017 to 51% in 2022)**
• I can’t afford to be ill (66% of therapists report increased need, 47% report patients cancelling)***
• It’s OK to be inconsistent as I struggle to reconcile my needs and reality ****
* Insurance Times, November 2022
** University of Oxford/Reuters Institute 2022 Digital News Report
*** British Association of Counsellors and Psychotherapists, 2022
**** The Human Paradox, Accenture 2021

9. Four responses
Fight
People will increasingly speak up against injustice,
because one injustice is increasingly indicative of a
broader sweep of inequality.
Flight
Because familiar options are unstable, people are
increasingly comfortable with alternatives – e.g.
homes, digital platforms, currencies
Focus
Because of the enormity and pace of change,
people will focus increasingly on the ‘here and now’
tasks within their control.
Freeze
Because of the ongoing uncertainty, people are
withholding labour, energy, commitment – keeping
something in reserve to deal with the day-to-day.

10. Every time a person walks into your library (whether staff or
user), they’re going to be cycling through some combination
of these experiences. How can we help?

11. Part 2. The future is a powerful idea

12. ‘Futures literacy’
‘Futures literacy’ is a phrase coined by UNESCO,
who are running a global project to help
communities think creatively about the future.
Defined as “the skill that allows people to better
understand the role of the future in what they
see and do. Being futures literate empowers the
imagination, enhances our ability to prepare,
recover and invent as changes occur.”
Better futures literacy is seen as a core part of
addressing the UN Sustainable Development
Goals.
https://en.unesco.org/futuresliteracy/

13. https://www.bbc.co.uk/gel/features/futures-bazaar-toolkit

14. The trends shaping all our lives
Our Futures Literacy workshops begin by
looking at the major current trends in 9
areas:
• Consumer trends and preferences
• Economy and Public Spending
• Families and communities
• Learning, education and literacy
• Public service reform
• Society and Demographic Change
• Technology and information
• Work, leisure and volunteering
• Environment and climate

15. Some examples
• Consumers are now smartphone first - US mobile
commerce increased from $156bn to £403bn in 2022
• The number of people expecting next-day delivery
from online platforms rose from 44% to 62% in 2022
• Internet sales as a % of sales has increased from
9.4% to 25.4% in 2023
• Footfall on the High Street has been in decline for 7
years, and fell by 10% since 2019

17. Techno dystopia Jetpacks
Sea is on fire
Climate crisis averted

18. We are
sustainable
but at what
cost?
We innovate
our way to
sustainability
The
Doomsday
Clock is
digital
We party
until the
apocalypse
comes
Techno dystopia Jetpacks
Sea is on fire
Climate crisis averted

19. We face
the facts
about
climate
Cooler and
calmer
The blame
game
accelerates
We’re still
here but
no wiser
Net Zero fails Net zero works
Truth decay
Facts matter

20. Another
grey day
Blue
skies
Storm
warning
Sunshine
and
showers
Whatever your axes, and whatever possible
scenarios you develop, you come to realise the
fundamental truth, which is that you and your
library will always be somewhere in a cycle
between these states.
The real questions become:
• How well do you understand which state you
are in now?
• Do you recognise when you are moving from
one state to another?
• How well and quickly do you recognise and
complete the transition between states?

21. “It is much easier to see the world in terms of Outbound change (the things we are
doing) because that is where our focus is. We get caught off guard by Inbound
change from outside our sphere.
Futures literacy requires us to think about the outside-in, the external factors
which influence our lives or fields of work.”
Ten Principles for Thinking about the Future: a Primer for Environmental Professionals
US Forest Service 2017

22. Part 3. All hail the Tardigrade!

24. I can survive without nutrients or
water for 100 years by losing
66% of my body mass and
entering a cryptobiotic state

26. I mutate freely to adapt to any
climate conditions. I survive
through aggressive adaptation
and growth.

27. Resilient organisms…
Have a will to live - they want to survive at all costs
Are tough - they are engineered for change
Are diverse - they diversify to benefit from localised differences
Are pro-active - they proactively propagate to ensure survival
Are adaptable - they constantly sense and adapt to changes in the environment
Adjust their needs - they can subsist through periods of want

31.  Shelter
 Food
 Manufacture
 Religion
 Booze

32. Resilient organisations…
Create value - they produce something people need and want
Are prudent - they don't grow faster than their market demands
Are adaptable - when change comes, they embrace it
Exist in symbiosis - they exist in a balanced relationship with their community
Exist in a geography - their activity is optimised to their location
Are proud - they take pride in their longevity
Value heritage - they have a sense of cumulative value over time

33. Resilience ≠ resistance to change
Resilience = being adaptable, optimised and networked

34. Part 4. Strategies for success

35. Lenses
People
Organisation
Professionals

36. As people
Slow down – take time, reflect, gain perspective
Be kind – kindness to ourselves and others is a fixed point in a turning world
Connect – spend time with loved ones, friends, colleagues
Reflect – on your own personal values and drivers
Be adaptable – cultivate a lifelong learning mindset
Remember your purpose – spend time enjoying the good that you do

37. As professionals
Identity - connect with your professional values and ethics
Networks - stay networked with the wider professional community
Relationships - build and strengthen relationships with colleagues
Be curious - maintain an active and healthy curiosity about the new
Prepare - continue to build your portfolio of skills
Be ambitious - take opportunities for development
Join your friendly local professional body….(www.cilip.org.uk/join)

38. As organisations
Tell your story – celebrate your heritage and identity
Know your purpose – take time to explore the ‘why’ of your organisation
Nurture wellbeing – create psychological safety for your people
Develop talent – invest in recruiting, retaining and developing talent
Partnership – build partnerships with purpose, including with your own team
Diversity – build cultures which prize, nurture and celebrate diversity
Learn – value and share knowledge as a precious resource
Manage – build management cultures that reward challenge

39. Conclusion
Part 1. We are going through a significant period of chaotic change. We will adapt.
Part 2. The future is something you can have a structured, creative and positive conversation about.
Part 3. The only real strategy for success in a changing world is to embrace adaptability
Part 4. Organisations are made of people – what works for people will work for the organisation

40. Foster trust
Trusted relationships are
the single most important
asset you have when
change comes.
Build skills
Strategically
strengthen your
portfolio of skills,
keep learning and be
open to new skills.
Slow down
Slow down to a
sustainable pace,
keep calm and keep
showing up.
Adapted from April Rinne