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Why the opportunity for RCS is now: RCS Business Messaging market forecasts to 2023 by Mobilesquared

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Mobilesquared reveals latest RCS business messaging market forecasts, at Mobile World Congress Barcelona, 2019. Includes forecasts to 2023 for consumer engagement frequency by month, business messaging revenues, top 10 mobile operators by business messaging revenues, impact of WhatsApp on mobile operators and more.

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Why the opportunity for RCS is now: RCS Business Messaging market forecasts to 2023 by Mobilesquared

  1. 1. Why  the  opportunity   for  RCS  is  now           24  February  2019   Gavin  Pa>erson   Chief  Data  Analyst,  Mobilesquared   gavin@mobilesquared.co.uk   @Mobilesquared  
  2. 2. About  Mobilesquared   Leading  analysts  in  Business  Messaging   We  provide  definiOve  data  and  expert  insight   We  work  with  the  leading  mobile  and  tech  companies  across  the  mobile  ecosystem,  from  regulators,   mobile  operators,  service  providers,  brands,  agencies,  start-­‐ups  …  to  understand  mobile  and  engagement.     We  do  this  through  extensive  research,  deep  analysis  based  on  years  of  experience,  and  forecas>ng   market  opportuni>es  based  on  ac>onable  numbers.       Accurate  data.  No  hype.     www.mobilesquared.co.uk                    @Mobilesquared  
  3. 3. @Mobilesquared   Messaging  user  landscape   P2P  MESSAGING  APPS   1  bil   2  bil   3  bil   4  bil   1.2  bil   1.5  bil   4  bil   1.1  bil   1  bil   0.8  bil   0.3  bil   0.2  bil   USERS   OTT  pressure  mounOng  but  mobile  operators   sOll  have  greatest  reach   0.2  bil  
  4. 4. TOTAL  DEVICES   Mobile  operator  messaging  perspecOve   MESSAGING  POTENTIAL  JAN  2019   1  bil   2  bil   3  bil   4  bil   4  bil   M O B I L E   O P E R A T O R   M E S S A G I N G   R C S   MESSAGING  POTENTIAL   USERS     RCS     A N D R O I D   S M A R T P H O N E S   A B C   3.5  bil   2.8  bil   0.9  bil   0.7  bil  
  5. 5. RCS  business  messaging  landscape   RCS  GROWTH  P2P  /  A2P  USERS,  2018  -­‐  2023   1  bil   2  bil   3  bil   P2P   TIME     RCS       RCS       RCS     P2P  MAUs     RCS      $     RCS      $     RCS      $   22%   POTENTIAL  RCS  MAUs   1%   94%  85%   %  OF  TOTAL   POTENTIAL   P2P   A2P   USERS  
  6. 6. RCS  A2P  breakdown   NATIVE  vs  DOWNLOADABLES    -­‐          500,000,000      1,000,000,000      1,500,000,000      2,000,000,000      2,500,000,000      3,000,000,000     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   The  dominance  of  na>ve   A2P  na>ve   A2P  download   Total  RCS  A2P     8.3%   40.2%   56.1%   76.8%   87.5%   94.2%   MaaP  (A2P/UP2.0)   launches  as  %  of  P2P   RCS  rollouts   @Mobilesquared  
  7. 7. Business  messaging  spend  (US$)   MESSAGING  APPS  END  2018,  ARPU   5  bil   10  bil   15  bil   20  bil                                                 SMS  ARPU   US$3.61   Mobile  operators  dominate  business  messaging  revenues     OTT  ARPU  ?   US$17.02  
  8. 8. A  world  without  RCS   Total  A2P  SMS  SPEND  (US$)   @Mobilesquared    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     Total   US$28.7  
  9. 9. Mobile  operator  business  messaging  evoluOon   The  impact  of  RCS  (US$)    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   @Mobilesquared   US$25.3  
  10. 10. Total  business  messaging  (SMS  +  RCS)   INCOME  (US$)    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS   @Mobilesquared   US$41.4  
  11. 11.  -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS   In-­‐network  RCS  model   Mobile  operator  +  aggregator  income   @Mobilesquared   No  revenue  share,  mobile  operator  controlled  ecosystem  keeps   100%,  with  aggregator  partner/s  selling  to  brands/enterprise    
  12. 12. Cloud  hosted  partner  RCS  model   Mobile  operator  +  aggregator  +  cloud  host  partner  income    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS  MNO  share   Cloud  hosted  partner   @Mobilesquared   Revenue  share  based  on  cloud  host  partner  receiving  40%  of  revenues   from  session/campaign  based  spend,  with  aggregator  partner/s  selling   to  brands/enterprise  
  13. 13. OTT  cloud  hosted  partner  RCS  model   Mobile  operator  +  cloud  host  partner  income    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS  MNO  share   OTT  Cloud  hosted  partner   @Mobilesquared   Revenue  share  based  on  cloud  host  partner  receiving  60%  of  revenues  from   session/campaign  based  spend,  which  includes  selling  to  brands/enterprise  
  14. 14. Top  10  RCS  business  messaging  rev  gen  mobile  operators  in  2023     @Mobilesquared   The  top  10  mobile  operators  /  groups  will   account  for  45%  of  RBM  income  by  2023        
  15. 15. SMS  /  RCS  ARPU  comparison   (US$)    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS   US$3.61   1   2   3   4   5   6   US$3.60   SMS   RCS  –  P2A  ACTIVITY   ARPU  (US$)   @Mobilesquared  
  16. 16. AlternaOve  business  models   ADVERTISING  &  SEARCH  SCENARIOS   @Mobilesquared    0.82      3.18      5.98      8.45      10.65      11.61      1.19      4.62      8.69      12.28      15.47      16.87      1.99      7.69      14.48      20.46      25.79      28.11      -­‐      5      10      15      20      25      30     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Adver>sing     Scenario  1   Scenario  2   Scenario  3   Forecasts  based  on:   AdverOsing   Scenario  1:  Based  on  Kakao  Talk’s  average  ad  spend  per  user  (US$4.13)  applied  to   total  P2P  RCS  users.  Scenario  2  &  3  based  on  average  ad  spend  of  US$6  &  US$10   respec>vely.   Search   Based  on  5%  of  the  total  average  spend  on  mobile  search  per  user  in  the  USA,   applied  to  total  RCS  A2P  user  base.    -­‐          2      4      6      8      10      12     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Search   0.04   10.7   9.1   6.7   3.9   1.3     Nb  Mobilesquared’s  actual  forecasts  on  adver5sing  &  search  will  be  published  in  2H  2019  
  17. 17. RCS  engagement  levels   PER  MONTH   By  2023  consumers  will  be  engaging  with  brands  via  RCS   on  an  almost  daily  basis   2019   2.92   2023   29.56   @Mobilesquared  
  18. 18. RCS  engagement  touchpoints   A2P  /  P2A  ACTIVITY  2023,  PER  MONTH   A2P  acOvity   PER  EVENT  9.4   @Mobilesquared   P2A  acOvity   PER  EVENT  6.1   CHAT  3.7   CHAT  10.4  
  19. 19. Threat  of  WhatsApp  to  mobile  operators   THE  JUGGERNAUT  HAS  DEPARTED    -­‐      2      4      6      8      10      12     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   WhatsApp  for  Business  revenues  (US$)   Data  to  emphasise  WhatsApp  threat  only!     Forecasts  based  on:      3  million  registered  businesses  (end  2018)  growing  at   20%  year-­‐on-­‐year  during  forecast  period     MaB  (Monthly  ac>ve  Business)  =  33%  per  year.     Average  sized  database  of  2,500  year-­‐on-­‐year.     Avg  message  cost  $0.03472,  based  on  avg  cost  in   launch  markets,  applied  throughout.   In  this  scenario  WhatsApp  for  Business  will:      enjoy  spend  18  Omes  higher  than  RCS  by  the  end  of   2019.     Will  generate  a  higher  ARPU  than  SMS  in  2021.     CumulaOve  spend  of  $30  billion  on  WhatsApp  during   forecast  period.     Nb  Mobilesquared’s  actual  forecasts  on  WhatsApp  for  Business  will  be  published  in  September  2019     7.2   5   3.5   2.4   1.7   0.4  
  20. 20. The  real  RCS  opportunity   TIME  TO  DELIVER   Market  worth  £16.2  billion  in  2023   (Based  on  messaging  &  chat)     Market  potenOally  £38.5  billion  in  2023*   (Based  on  messaging,  chat,  adverOsing  (scenario  1)  &  search)       *Mobilesquared’s  actual  forecasts  on  adver5sing  &  search  will  be  published  in  2H  2019  
  21. 21. Why  make  Mobilesquared  your  business  messaging  partner   RCS  forecasts  covering  P2P/A2P  launches,  P2P/A2P  users,  Traffic,  Income     Split  by  Mobile  operator,  Country,  Region  &  OS.     Databook  forecasts  updated  quarterly     Analyst  Insight  Reports  quarterly     RCS  MAU  tracker  (splipng  out  UP  1.0/UP2.0)  for  every  live  RCS  market     Upcoming  RCS  research  on  impact  of  digital  &  search  models  on  total  income   We  are  business  messaging  specialists  published  in  2009:     •  A2P  SMS  3.0  (May)   •  WhatsApp  for  Business  (September)   •  Apple’s  ABC  (November)     databooks@mobilesquared.co.uk     +44  (0)  118  2149  777  /  +44  (0)  7976  057  052     www.mobilesquared.co.uk/about-­‐databooks/   CONTACT  

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