1. Risk assessment of coastal zones in the
European part of Russia.
Asov and Black Seas study (Krasnodar region).
Lomonosov Moscow State
University
Faculty of Geography
Natural Risk Asessment
Laboratory (NRAL)
Inna Krylenko
Natalya Yumina
Stepan Zemtsov

2. Object and purpose
Object – aqua-territorial systems as a type of
social-ecological systems
Subject – influence of natural processes (river
flooding) on aqua-territorial systems
Purpose – an estimation of influence (risk and
damage assessment) of natural processes on
aqua-territorial systems

4. The study area
Asov and Black
sea coastal area of
Russia
Region
Krasnodarsky kray
(76 th. sq. km
5,3 mln. people)
Case study
Temryuk municipal
district

5. Municipal
districts and
main cities of
Krasnodar
region
(Krasnodarsky
kray)

6. Some Examples of Flood Damage in
the Kuban River Basin
Date Flood reason Damage
Around 500 000 ga, 132 setlements, more than 22
500 houses were flooded, 113 economic objects were
Haivy rains and damaged in Krasnodar region.
1998, march groundwater level Huge flood activated landslide processes in
rise Temryuk city.
Around 107 privat houses were damaged and 300
people were injured in Temryuk region.
Ice jams,
Huge area along the river and part of Temryuk city
2001, december — haivy rains and were flooded (around 74 ga).
2002, january reservoir 3283 people were injured
releases
Snow melting One of the river dam was broken.
2002, july 1,5 km2 of rice fields and pump station were flooded
and haivy rains
2011, february Surge Water level rised on 1,5 m

7. Number of significant flood events during
the observation period (from XVIII century)
number of floods per 10 years
6
5
4
3 Kuban River
2
1 Mouth
0
40 70 00 30 60 90 20 50 80 11
17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 20
period of time number of floods per 10 years
8
7
6
5
Black Sea 4
3
Rivers 2
1
0
0 0 0 0 0 0
191 1 93 195 97 99 01
0- 0- 0- -1 0-
1
0-
2
90 92 94 60 98 00
1 1 1 19 1 2
period of time

8. Potential flooding zones and observed
flooding areas

9. Cuban and Eya rivers areas
Black sea rivers areas

10. Cuban river flood event (July, 2002)

11. The basic concepts of Russian
approach
Antroposphere Natural
hazards
Atmosphere
Ecological sphere Hydrosphere
Litosphere
Biosphere
Technosphere
1. Infrastructure
2. Fixed funds
Social-economic geosystem
Sociosphere or
1. Socio-demographic social-ecological system
2. Ecomomy
3. Political-administrative
4. Cultural
Psychological sphere

12. Risk Asessment Methodology in
Russia
R = p*D
R — risk
p — hazard probability (%)
D — expected damage
D = d*S + C
d — real damage per exposure area (rub*km2) — depends on flood
depth, velocity, duration and land development
S — exposure area (km2)
C — costs of preventive measures (rub)

13. The scheme for selection of indicators to assess
risk of flooding on regional level
(N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)
Flood risk assessment
Assessment of natural hazards Vulnerability assessment
Natural factors Socio-economic factors
1. Probability of flooding
1. Average population desity
of coastal areas
2. Proportion of the population
2. Scales of the phenomenon in the flood zone
- maximum excess
3. Anthropogenic conditionality
of the flooding level of emergencies
- flood duration
4. Main funds in the economy
- exposure area
5. Human development index
3. Riverbed factor
Map of the index Map of the socio-economic
of the natural hazards of flooding vulnerability index
Map of flood risk

14. Map of the index of the natural hazards of
flooding (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)
Index of the natural hazards of flooding

15. Map of the sociol-economic vulnerability of the territory
during floods (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)
Socio-economic vulnerability index

16. Map of typological zoning of Russia on the degree of
flood risk (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)
Classes of flood risk
Low risk Average Very high risk
risk
Insignificant Extremely high
risk High risk risk

17. Damage Asessment Methodology
of Russian Emergency ministry
D=Dφ×θ ∑ Si Кi Pi
I – hazard level (1≤ i ≤3),
Dφ×θ – damage coefficient for different types of damage
Si – exposure area for each level of hazard
Кi – level of destruction coefficient
Pi – concentration coefficient:
ρi - density of population in each hazardous zone
ρфон – density of population in the region,
М – population of the region,
mi – population in the zones of low (i=1), medium (i=2) and high (i=3) hazard
Сreg - net assets value of fixed production assets for year of census,
n – years from census data,
Ki – level of destruction coefficient.

18. Destruction coefficients
Medium level of
High level of destruction Low level of destruction
destruction
Type of building
Depth, Velocity, Duration, Depth, Velocity, Duration, Velocity, Duration,
Depth, m
m m/s hours m m/s hours m/s hours
Brick buildings
4 2,5 170 3 2 100 2 1 50
(1-3 stages)
Industry buildings
with light metal 5 2,5 170 3,5 2 100 2 1,5 50
construction
Brick buildings
(more than 4 6 3 240 4 2,5 170 2,5 1,5 100
stages)
Industry massive
7,5 4 240 6 3 170 3 1,5 100
construction

19. Integral aproach.
Scheme for indicators collection
Exposure Vulnerability Damage
Sphere Dimension Spatial Cost Susceptibili Coping Adaptive
objects parameters ty capacity capacity
for damage
I.
Environment
II. Infrastructur
Technosphere e
Fixed funds; Description: Name Indicator Level Source
industry and
service
III. Social-
Sociosphere demographi
c
Economy
Political-
administrati
ve
Cultural

20. Database
• Data from the Russian Statistical Service
(Rosstat) for municipal districts (local level),
federal ministries, departments of Krasnodarsky
region administration, and etc.
• More than 300 indicators for 14 municipal
districts from 2007 to 2011 years
• Seasonal data

21. Spatial Cost Susceptibil Coping Adaptive
objects parameters ity capacity capacity
Sphere
for damage
Dimension
Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator
Number of
Concentra
members
Landscap Ecological tion Index
Rare Share of Ecological of Biodiversi
e recovery enthusiast for
landscapes all area capacity ecological ty
time s landscape
organizati
s
ons
Wild Share of
Share of Ecological
animals endangere
all area capacity
areas d species
I. Environment
Quantity
Ecological
Polluted Share of Ecologic of
Pollution Pollution investmen
area all area al fines chemical
t
fertilizers
Number of
waste
processing
Pollution
factories

22. Cost
Spatial parameters Coping Adaptive
Dimension objects for damage Susceptibility capacity capacity
Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator
Length of Susceptibilit Share of
Cost of Recovery Share of Length and
Roads improved Roads y of different improved Dams
kilometer crews population location
roads roads roads
Water supply Water supply Cost of Alarm Length and
Length Number Bulk rolls
system system kilometer systems location
Infrastructure
Sewerage Sewerage Cost of Evacuation Irrigation Area and
Length
system system kilometer plans system location
Hydro and
Heating Heating Cost of Siren
Length meteorologic
system system kilometer networks
al stations
Share of all Agricultural Cost of fixed Agricultural
?
Agricultural area enterprises funds management
lands
Share of Susceptibilit Share of
different y of different susceptible
Industry crops crops plants
II.
Technosphe Share of all Forest Cost of fixed Forest
?
re area enterprises funds management
Forest lands
Share of Susceptibilit Share of
different y of different susceptible
trees trees trees
Susceptibilit
Share of
Fixed funds Industrial y of different
Funds Cost susceptible
of industries area types of
buildings
buildings
Susceptibilit
Share of
Fixed funds Service y of different
Funds Cost susceptible
Fixed funds of service objects types of
buildings
buildings
Susceptibilit Share of
Fixed funds Dwellings Funds Cost y of different fragile
of dwellings area types of dwellings
buildings

23. Cost
Spatial parameters Coping Adaptive
Sphere Dimension objects for damage Susceptibility capacity capacity
Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator
Population Share of old Level of
Value of Susceptible Emergency Share of
exposed to People ? and young Education primary
peoples life people crews population
hazards people education
Percentage of Number of
population participants in
Diversificatio Herfindahl–
with incomes Emergency voluntary
Poor people n of labour Hirschman
below the public crews groups for the
market Index
Sociol- subsistence protection of
demographic minimum public order
Unemploymen
t rate
Average
Income per
monthly
capita
wages
Social
?
networks
Sales of own-
Industry Volume of Cost of produced Diversificatio
Insurance
enterprises production production goods and n of economy
services
III. Income of
Sociosphere Income
Economy enterprises
Share of The share of
Herfindahl–
Profits of different own revenues
Hirschman
budget sources of of local
Index
budget profits budgets
Investment
Number of
Time for
hospital bed Administratio
building
per 10000 n efficiency
Medical license
inhabitants
service
Political- Number of
administrative physicians per Private health
?
10000 expenditure
inhabitants
Administratio Suspicious
n transactions
Susceptibility
Cultural of different Share of
nations migrants

24. WorldRiskIndex approach. Selected indicators from database
Vulnerability
Susceptibility
Housing
Public infrastructure Poverty and dependencies Economic capacity Index
conditions
The share of the
The share of the
The share of the population
Length of population served by Sales of own-
Length of The share of the population with benefiting from
improved the departments of produced goods,
improved water inhabitants in incomes below social
sanitation / social services at works and services /
source / people fragile dwellings the subsistence assistance to
people home for senior people
minimum pay for housing
citizens and disabled
services
0,075 0,075 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,25 0,33
Lack of coping capacity
Government and authoritiees Medical services Social networks Material coverage Index
Share of
Number of Number of
The share of participants in
Unemployment hospital beds physicians per Average monthly
own revenues of voluntary groups
rate per 10000 10000 wages per capita
local budgets for the protection
inhabitants inhabitants
of public order
0,1 0,10 0,22 0,22 0,26 0,1 0,33
Lack of adaptive capacity
Environmental Adaptation
Education Investment Index
management strategies
Diversification of
Share of the labour
Observed Private
employed market
/Maximum flood investment /
people with (Herfindahl–
area people
good education Hirschman
Index)
0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,33

25. Unification of variable indicator X
I = (X - Xo)/(X*-Xo) (1)
– monotonic increasing dependence
between variable X and index I
I =1-(Xo - X)/(X*-Xo) (2)
– monotonic decreasing dependence
Xo – minimum of variable X
among N municipal districts,
X* – maximum
Index I belongs to [0,1]

26. Municipal Lack of coping Lack of adaptive
Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility
Risk capacity capacity
Index
Novorossiysk 0,02 0,05 0,40 0,26 0,37 0,58
Gelendzhik 0,03 0,07 0,42 0,47 0,25 0,55
Sochi 0,03 0,06 0,51 0,66 0,39 0,47
Tuapsinsky 0,04 0,09 0,50 0,45 0,56 0,49
Sherbinovsky 0,08 0,11 0,70 0,65 0,68 0,79
Kanevsky 0,09 0,14 0,62 0,40 0,70 0,77
Eysky 0,10 0,16 0,65 0,67 0,66 0,63
Anapa 0,13 0,28 0,47 0,49 0,36 0,56
Krymsky 0,14 0,24 0,58 0,67 0,59 0,49
Krasnoarmeysky 0,23 0,32 0,70 0,56 0,83 0,72
Temryuksky 0,26 0,53 0,49 0,45 0,74 0,27
Kalininsky 0,35 0,47 0,74 0,63 0,86 0,75
Primorsko-
Akhtarsky
0,39 0,7 0,56 0,63 0,65 0,40
Slavyansky 0,45 0,75 0,59 0,43 0,71 0,65

27. Lack of capacity and
susceptibility indeces

28. Exposure and vulnerability
indeces

29. Municipal Risk Index

30. Future directions
1.Seasonal or day / night vulnerability
2. Damage estimation (Russian methodology) for case area
3. Workshop (elaboration of indicators)
4. Survey (verification of methodology, search for some
indicators) on the case area
5. Experts‘ interviews (Emergency ministry, Hydrological
service, Economic department of local government, etc.)
6. Resilience estimation (methodology, indicators, etc.)

31. Map from the GIS cadastral
register. Temryuk city

32. Thank you for your attention!