Narnolia Securities Limited have raised our target price largely due to two factors –(1) margin and return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as permanagement and (2) price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment. Narnolia Securities Limited recommend buy stock of Indusind bank price target of Rs.540
1. INDUSIND BANK : "BUY" 26th Mar 2014
We have raised our target price largely due to two factors – (1) margin and return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as per management
and (2) price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment.
.................................................................... ( Page : 2-4)
HDFC Bank : "HOLD" 20th Mar 2014
Profitability of bank is likely to report better in next few quarters on the back of mobilization of FCNR deposits which would reflect better NII
growth for being a low cost carry, RBI allowed banks to use counter cycle buffer for making specific provisions against bad loans, declining share
of priority sector lending but still met regulatory requirement and exempted foreign deposits with tenure more than 3 years from SLR, CRR and
PSL. Now the economy is witnessing some sign of revival and market sentiment boost up on account of exit poll result. We raised our price
target to Rs.760/share which is upper side of our valuation band. .................... ( Page : 18-20)
IEA-Equity
Strategy
26th Mar, 2014
Edition : 232
Persistent System : "Persistently innovating.." 21th Mar 2014
PNB : "BUY" 24th Mar 2014
We upgrade PNB from neutral to add rating on account of external factors like better than expected GDP growth and CAD numbers which
showing some improvement along with softening inflation numbers. Recently market sentiments are also booted on account of opinion poll
result which revealed that BJP led NDA would close to formation of Government in coming general election. We raised our price target to
Rs.700 from Rs.600 earlier. ............................................................. ( Page : 10- 12)
Jindal steel & Power : Challenging Fundamentals "NEUTRAL" 24th Mar 2014
On Mid Quarter Analyst Meet, TCS commented on weak revenue growth momentum for 4QFY14E due to weak seasonality. Growth in 4QFY14E
would be lower than the preceding quarter and margin would decline 40-50 basis points on cross currency movement and higher investments.
However, sigh of relief was seen on FY15E outlook and comments on overall demand environment. .................................................................. (
Page : 15-17 )
Hindalco Industries Ltd: "BUY" 25th Mar 2014
Sesa Sterlite's 22 days smelting shut will help rival producer Hindalco Industries raise sales.With greater comfort on sustainability and visibility of
ramp up in UAIL operations, we raise our FY15E volume and consolidated EBITDA by ~2%. Currently the stock is trading at 0.7x in 1yr Forward
P/B and we believe with the changing political climate and improving auto mobile demand the stock will accumulate to 0.8x P/B. Hence at CMP
Rs.121.5 we are bullish on the stock to a medium term target price of Rs.140 which is a 15% upside addition.
................................................................ ( Page : 5-7)
We cover Persistent System as one of the few companies in the tier-II with potential to grow revenue at a range of 18-20%, specially focused on
emerging business and relationship building with marquee clients. Despite better predictability of growth and attractive visibility of its expansion
in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit on the stock because of its premium valuation. ...............................................................
(Page : 13-14)
"BOOK PROFIT"
TCS : " Strong Fundamentals" "BUY" 20th Mar 2014
The Company has embarked on expansion projects of US$9bn in steel and power, backed by resource availability and steady cash flows.
Improving free-cash-flows and volumes would be visible from end-FY15. Profitability is geared to iron ore and coal, which, against the present
backdrop of improving iron-ore prices and higher coal consumption, would drive a re-rating. The stock quotes at 1.1x FY14e P/B. We initiate our
coverage on this stock with a target of Rs.285/share on the basis of improving steel business, and Recommend Neutral.
.................................................................. ( Page : 8-10)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
India Equity Analytics
Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
2. INDUSIND BANK
486
540
428
11
26
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 22.7 20.5 20.5
Rel.to Nifty 17.1 4.8 4.8
Current 24QFY1
4
3QFY1
3Promoters 15.2 15.2 15.3
FII 41.1 39.9 42.3
DII 7.2 7.4 7.0
Others 36.4 37.5 35.4
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 1376 1704 2233 2787 4053
Total Income 2090 2716 3596 4562 5827
PPP 1082 1373 1839 2452 2972
Net Profit 577 803 1061 1320 1633
EPS 12.4 17.2 20.3 25.3 31.1
2
We have raised our target price largely due to two factors – (1) margin and
return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as per management and (2)
price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive
upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment.
Result update BUY
Previous Target Price
Upside
Market Data
Indusind bank has outperformed Nifty by 16% in last one month and Bank
Nifty by 6%. We believe this has been on the back of possible margin
expansion as per management and market sentiments. Margin could be
expanded on the back of lower cost of fund led by wholesale deposits, FCRN
deposits fund, CASA accretion and shift loan book in fovour of corporate book
due to slowdown in commercial segment in retail portfolio. Further we
observe that there is about 80% correlation between price of HDFC bank and
Indusind bank and their current price ratio (HDFC Bank to Indusind Bank)
moved in range of 1.7 to 1.4 in five year time frame (Presently at 1.52). HDFC
bank is close to 4 times of book but Indusind bank still has potential to move
up (presently trading at 2.8 times of book versus 3.2 times in historical band).
Our target price ratio would be 1.4 which implies expected HDFC price target
of Rs.760 (4 times of book) and Indusind bank price target of Rs.540 (3.2 times
of FY14E book).
Stock Performance
52wk Range H/L 531/318
BSE Code 532187
NSE Symbol INDUSINDBK
Average Daily Volume
25535
Change from Previous( Rs)
INDUSIND Bank Vs Nifty
Share Holding Pattern-%
1.26 lakhs
Nifty 6589
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
CMP
Margin expansion on the lower cost of fund and change in portfolio
composition
Margin expansion would be come from whole sale deposits and CASA front as per
management. Indusind bank funding profile constitute about 35% of wholesale fund
which is lower is cost and bank had raised $300 bn in form of foreign currency
deposits which has cost around 3.5% while regular deposits cost fall around 6.5 to
7%. Further bank advance composition has switched in favour of corporate book in
the wake of possible slowdown in commercial vehicle segment in retail book. Bank’s
CASA improved from 31.8% in 2QFY14 to 32.2% in 3QFY14 led by SA growth of
50% YoY and 8% QoQ. Bank opened 13 branches in December quarter and another
40 branches are under process of various stages which are to be opened by March
2014. Aggressive branch expansion would be CASA accretion and deposits cost
would be soften. Management expects NIM to remain steady with upward basis.
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Target Price
"BUY"
26th March 2014
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
3. 3
INDUSIND BANK
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Trading significantly discount than HDFC Bank despite of almost lending profit
Historically it has been observed that Indusind Bank one year forward price to book move
in the range of 2.5 to 3.2 times. Recently bank’s price has appreciated but still below of 3
times of book. Further we also observe that price ratio of HDFC Bank and Indusind bank
move in the range of 1.7 to 1.4 and their correlation in one year price is about 78%.
HDFC Bank is now very close to 4 times of book (one year forward P/BV justifies as it
has been historically observed) but Indusind bank is still to reach at 3.2 times of book.
Therefore chances of price appreciation in Indusind bank are higher than HDFC Bank
and said price ratio of both banks would be justified. We compare this bank with HDFC
Bank is due to both banks have about almost same percentage in retail lending profile.
Historical Price Band
HDFC Bank and Indusind Bank Price Ratio
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
4. 4
INDUSIND BANK
Financials & Assuptions
Source: Eastwind/Company
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015
Interest Income 3589 5359 6983 8308 10419
Interest Expense 2213 3655 4750 5521 6367
NII 1376 1704 2233 2787 4053
Change (%)
Non Interest Income 714 1012 1363 1775 1775
Total Income 2090 2716 3596 4562 5827
Change (%)
Operating Expenses 1008 1343 1756 2110 2855
Pre Provision Profits 1082 1373 1839 2452 2972
Change (%)
Provisions 504 180 263 455 535
PBT 577 1193 1576 1997 2437
PAT 577 803 1061 1320 1633
Change (%)
Balance Sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Deposits( Rs Cr) 34365 42362 54117 62234 74681
Change (%) 23 28 15 20
of which CASA Dep 9331 11563 15867 20537 22404
Change (%) 24 37 29 9
Borrowings( Rs Cr) 5525 8682 9460 15559 18670
Investments( Rs Cr) 13551 14572 19654 23338 28005
Loans( Rs Cr) 26166 35064 44321 54071 67589
Change (%) 34 26 22 25
Ratio 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Avg. Yield on loans 10.8 12.0 12.7 0.0 12.5
Avg. Yield on Investments 5.4 7.4 6.5 6.6 6.5
Avg. Cost of Deposit 5.3 7.3 8.8 8.9 8.5
Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 7.0 6.7 7.6 7.5 7.5
Valuation 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Book Value 87 101 146 171 195
CMP 264 321 405 405 405
P/BV 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1
5. Hindalco Industries Ltd.
122 1-
140
132
15%
NA
2-
500440
25497
17848
6284
1M 1yr YTD A. Captive bauxite is only 21km away from the refinery
Absolute 24.7 38.1 30.6 B. Low reactive silica content which reduces caustic soda consumption
Rel. to Nifty 18.3 21.2 16.1 C.
D.
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 37.0 37.0 37.0
FII 26.9 24.9 24.8
DII 13.3 14.4 14.3
Others 22.9 23.7 23.9
Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14
Net Revenue 7273 5.8 15.4 6872 6305
EBITDA 629 8.1 16.5 582 540
PAT 344 -20.6 -3.7 434 357
EBIDTA % 9% 2.1 1.0 8% 9%
NPM % 5% -25.0 -16.5 6% 6%
. (In Crs)
5
Nifty
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Upside
Change from Previous
Market Data
BSE Code
HINDALCONSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
137/83
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Stock Performance-%
Share Holding Pattern-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Company Update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Political sentiment:
High trihydrate alumina content (40%) i.e., it is gibbsite form of bauxite with only 2%
bohemite (low quality bauxite)
Bauxite properties are such that process is carried out at relatively low temperature and
pressure leading to savings in energy cost.
Novelis’ business has started to improve with the benefit and strong demand from
automobiles. However, the pricing pressure is impacting margin. Novelis is one of the
world’s leading aluminium rolling and recycling companies supplying premium products
in the markets of North America, Europe, Asia and South America. The company is the
largest single producer of aluminium rolled products with an estimated share of 14% of
the world’s supply. Novelis’ sales volumes are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.7% in
FY13-16E. On the back of increasing share of the automobile segment in the overall sales
mix, we expect the EBITDA/ton to improve.
Expansions ready to deliver…
With the change in political climate, we believe there will be demand from domestic
aluminium and copper consumer. Currently copper is going through a three month
low,we expect it to be better after election.
Key reasons for this low cost UAIL plant include:
Novelis Business:
Copper producer Sesa Sterlite Ltd will shut its smelter for 22 days starting April 26, for
maintenance purpose. It produces 30,000 tons of refined copper per month and exports
half of that to China. It will help rival producer Hindalco Industries raise sales. And also
for Hindalco the copper realization is stable with the previous quarter, so it will be
additional sales if orders executes.
Ongoing Positive thrusts:
The Q3FY14 financial results still do not include Mahan, Utkal and Aditya projects. All
three projects have started production under trial run. UAIL’s commercial production
started in December 2013. Management guided for FY15E and FY16E volumes of over
1mt and 1.5mt (full capacity), respectively. Integration of Aluminium smelters (a) Newly
commissioned aluminium smelters (UP and Odisha) to ramp up volumes going forward
and (b) Cost benefit of cheap alumina for its existing smelters with high quality,
proximate and captive bauxite mine, whose production is currently running at ~4mtpa
run-rate. We are expecting a good amount profit addition from these plants in H1FY15.
"Buy"
25th March' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
6. 6
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Hindalco Industries Ltd.
With greater comfort on sustainability and visibility of ramp up in UAIL operations, we
raise our FY16E volume and consolidated EBITDA by ~2%. We continue to see Hindalco
benefiting over next three years from volume growth in Novelis and Indian operations.
Although Hindalco has expanded its aluminium capacity recently, low aluminium prices,
sticky costs and delay in commencement of mining from captive blocks have resulted in
decline in profitability over the past few quarters. In the near-term, its profitability is
likely to be muted due to higher costs at Mahan smelter and low aluminium prices.
Currently the stock is trading at 0.7x in 1yr Forward P/B and we believe with the
changing political climate and improving aluminium demand the stock will accumulate
to 0.8x P/B. Hence at CMP Rs.121.5 we are bullish on the stock to a medium term target
price of Rs.140 which is a 15% upside addition.
The company has received stage-2 forest clearance for its Mahan coal block subject to
certain conditions. The next important step would be signing of liming lease with the
state government and subsequent mine development, which is likely to take ~18-24
months. High debt on the books continues to weigh on valuations.
Concerns:
View & Valuations:
Hindalco is a metal major with business interests in copper smelting & aluminium
manufacturing domestically. It is also a leading aluminum converter globally through
subsidiary Novelis. On the domestic aluminium business front, the company is
undergoing an ambitious capacity expansion wherein its aluminium (primary metal)
production capacity will increase from 560 KT currently to 1278 KT by FY15E. The
planned capacity expansion is backed by corresponding alumina refinery with captive
bauxite linkage. Bauxite conveyor expected to start in December 2014.
Trading At :
About The Company:
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
7. FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
72078 80821 80193 81139
431 783 1012 1360
72509 81604 81205 82499
64102 72856 72395 72681
7976 7965 7798 8457
2725 2645 2822 3076
1839 1758 2079 2600
964 786 886 1201
366 211 -20 -
57 -50 16 -
2456 3397 3027 2940
8.5 10.6 8.4 7.8
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
191 191 191 191
21346 28824 31179 34597
21545 29023 31911 35330
10763 13736 37127 49857
13236 13956 3731 6442
3901 4138 5289 5691
9742 12980 11052 9613
1016 1077 1377 1610
69235 84376 101402 120590
7876 12272 15429 16435
21124 20133 19871 21490
5801 13131 22798 33831
1983 2035 3774 3170
11275 14096 13246 14332
6544 8000 8017 8952
2195 2556 3296 3770
1134 1164 2159 3257
69235 84376 101402 120590
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
1.6 1.4 0.8 0.5
20.5 12.8 17.7 15.8
10.8 11.1 9.9 11.2
16.0 18.0 13.7 12.0
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
5542 6929 8534 6852
4944 6226 7602 2978
-5448 -6710 -13220 -13765
428 825 6237 10278
-76 341 619 -510
7
Hindalco Industries Ltd.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Short-term borrowings
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Net Cash From Operation
Cash From Investment
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Cash from Operation
Short-term loans and advances
Total Assets
RATIOS
P/B
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%
Creditors to Turnover%
CASH FLOWS
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
ROE%
Net Revenue from Operation
Other Income
Total Income
Long-term loans and advances
Inventories
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
P/L PERFORMANCE
Long-term borrowings
Long-term provisions
Share in Profit/(Loss) of Associates
PAT
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
Interest Cost
Tax
Minority Interest
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
8. Jindal steel & Power
265
285
NA
8%
NA
532286
24796
11158
6495
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 6.9 -21.7 -27.9
Rel. to Nifty 0.5 -36.3 -37.6
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY13
Promoters 59.7 59.1 59.1
FII 21.9 21.3 20.8
DII 4.7 6.2 6.7
Others 13.7 13.3 13.4
Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14
Revenue 5377 12.0 7.9 4802 4984
EBIDTA 1701 -5.0 16.7 1790 1457
Net Profit 562 -35.2 24.3 867 452
EBIDTA% 32 -15.1 8.2 37 29
NPM% 10 -42.1 15.2 18 9
(In Crs)
8
Change from Previous
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Nifty
Balance sheet at inflection point: In the past three years, 3bn dollar has been spent on
expansion, and a further 6bn will be expended in the next three years. The expansion has
been supported by the strong business cash flows. However, the net-debt-to-EBITDA
level has hit 3.7x due to delayed cash flows, though the leverage ratio is likely to have
peaked.
Steel segment improving : Steel sales volumes of Jindal Steel and Power are likely to
have improved in 3QFY14, to 0.75m tons. On the changing business and client mix, prices
are likely to have been better. Export opportunities in the quarter due to favorable
currency could have offset the impact of iron ore realizations and would have improved
EBITDA, aided by stable costs. The Shadeed Oman HBI business, iron ore and coking coal
mine are likely to have been stable.Management expects the company’s total steel
capacity, both in India and overseas, to increase around 8 million ton as compared to
current 3 million ton by the end of the fiscal.
JSPL achieved a spectacular growth in its export volumes which in volume and value
terms grew by 32% and 104% for the same period last year. The Company has received
Rail order from DFCC for the prestigious Delhi – Kolkata corridor and export order from
Ferrotech Alloys, UK.
JSPL’s retail segment has been very successful and the sale during Q3 FY14. Jindal Power
Ltd., a subsidiary of JSPL sales grew by 17.7% while PBT and PAT increased by 16.9% and
15.7% respectively in Q3 this year compared to Q3FY13.Net Sales of the company is
expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% over 2012 to 2015E respectively.
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Stock Performance-%
Share Holding Pattern-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Market Data
Challenging Fundamentals
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
362/181
The Company has embarked on expansion projects of US$9bn in steel and power,
backed by resource availability and steady cash flows. Improving free-cash-flows and
volumes would be visible from end-FY15. Profitability is geared to iron ore and coal,
which, against the present backdrop of improving iron-ore prices and higher coal
consumption, would drive a re-rating. The stock quotes at 1.1x FY14e P/B. We initiate
our coverage on this stock with a target of Rs.285/share on the basis of improving steel
business, and Recommend Neutral.
The consolidated turnover was up by 12% to Rs.5377 Cr against Rs. 4683 Cr in previous
year period. Net Profit is after tax for the quarter is Rs. 562Cr (Rs. 867 Cr in Q3FY13). The
steel business in volume and value terms grew by 11% and 7% respectively compared to
the previous quarter.
BSE Code
JINDALSTEL
Initial Coverage Neutral
Upside
"Neutral"
24th March' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
9. Coverage :
Products
• Mining
Plants Locations
• Jindal Industrial Park (Chhattisgarh)
• Raipur Division (Chhattisgarh)
• Tamnar (Odisha)
• Angul (Odisha) • Zambia
• Barbil (Odisha) • Tanzania
• Tensa - (Jharkhand)
• Patratu (Jharkhand) • Australia
9
Business Areas
• Semi-Finished Products
• Power
• Ferro Chrome
• Silico Manganese
• Sponge Iron
• Parallel Flange Beams
• Plates & Coils
• Madagascar
Jindal Steel and Power Limited started as a steel manufacturing company, enhanced the
company position as a major steel producer and diversified into various other sectors
such as:
• Petroleum
• Cement and Infrastructure.• Power Generation & Trading
Global Presence
Earning Ratios
Earning Ratios
EBIDTA & Margin
• Mozambique
• South America
• Angels & Channels
• TMT Re-bars
• Wire Rods
• Oman (Middle East)
EBIDTA & Margin
Debt Structure
Jindal steel & Power
• Fabricated Sections
Stabilizing Power segment: With a steady performance and power sales to Rs.1130 Cr
in 3QFY14 (Rs.1068Cr in 3QFY13), the PLF in 3QFY14 would have held at ~100%, helping
maintain realizations. Capped realizations and the power-surplus situation would have
posed downside risks to earnings.
Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) is one of India’s major steel producers with a
significant presence in sectors like Steel, Mining, Power Generation and Infrastructure.
With an annual turnover of over US$ 3.6 billion, JSPL is a part of the over US$ 18 billion
diversified O. P. Jindal Group. In the recent past, JSPL has expanded its steel, power and
mining businesses to various parts of the world particularly in Asia, Africa and Australia.
The company has committed investments exceeding US$ 30 billion in the future and has
several business initiatives running simultaneously across continents. The company
produces economical and efficient steel and power through backward and forward
integration.
• Rails
Revenue & Growth
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
11. 641
700
600
9
17
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 18.9 -19.7 -19.7
Rel.to Nifty 14.0 -30.2 -30.2
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
3Promoters 58.9 57.9 57.9
FII 17.5 17.9 18.0
DII 18.5 18.4 19.1
Others 5.1 5.9 5.1
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 11807 13414 14857 16536 17691
Total Income 15420 17617 19072 20775 21930
PPP 9056 10614 10907 11155 12500
Net Profit 4433 4884 4748 3408 5209
EPS 140.6 144.0 134.3 94.1 143.9
11
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Creation of fresh slippage lower, impaired asset high but showing
improvement
During the last quarter bank’s margin expanded by 10 bps QoQ despite of moderate
loan growth. Bank witnessed 9.7% YoY loan growth led by SME growth of 21.6%
and retail segment growth of 17.5%. Retail and SME segment are high yield in
nature. Further bank’s low cost deposits CASA increased by 13% in absolute term in
which saving account supported with 14% growth current account 7% YoY. But
overall deposits declined by 20% led by 33% declined of term deposits which inflated
CASA ratio to 38.3% from 27%. Sequentially cost of fund declined by 25 bps while
yield on loan declined by 11 bps on account of creation of low deposits franchise and
shifting of portfolio.
Change from Previous
PNB Vs Nifty
Share Holding Pattern-%
7.4 cr
Nifty 6495
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Stock Performance
52wk Range H/L
During the last quarter PNB experienced improvement of asset quality especially in
fresh slippage front. Fresh addition in GNPA was declined by 52% sequential to Rs.
1142 cr as against average run rate in last ten quarter was Rs.2124cr. In percentage
to gross advances, slippage ratio came down to 1.4% versus 3% in 2Q and 4.7% in
1Q. Cash recoveries were better which drag net NPA to 2.8% from 3.1% in previous
quarter. Further bank restructure Rs. 2115 cr in 3QFY14 mainly come from power
sector which was offset by similar amount of bond received from SEBs. Bank
management has not indicated restructure pipeline in near term which means stable
to improving asset quality trend could be seen.
Margin expansion on the back of shifting concentration of portfolio mix and
CASA growth
In the subsequent section we will discuss two positive fronts that bank has
witnessed in last quarter result (a) asset quality improvement especially in
fresh slippage side, (b) margin expansion. We will discuss the possibility
valuation contraction from current level.
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Average Daily Volume
19646Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
PNB
Market Data
Upside
890/400
BSE Code 532461
NSE Symbol PNB
Company update ADD Over the last one month, PNB has outperform Nifty by 14% and Bank Nifty by
5.7% largely on account of external factor like economy and fiscal deficit
showing some positive trend, softening of inflation from its peak level. Market
sentiment are also boosted by recent opinion poll result which revealed BJP
led NDA would come to power and economy would revived. Although we like
Bank of Baroda over PNB but former is trading close to our target price. We
value PNB at Rs.600 to Rs.775 per share implying 0.6 to 0.75 times of one year
forward book depending upon current economy scenario and banks own
fundamental. Looking at current fundamental and market sentiments we
believe bank would trade in the range of Rs.600 to Rs.700.
"ADD"
24th March2014
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
12. 12
PNB
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Management guided stable NIM, more focus on liability rather than asset yield
According to bank management, PNB is focusing more on liability side rather than yield.
Bank has reduced high cost bulk deposits from Rs.880 bn in Sept.2012 to Rs.220 bn in
Dec.2013 and certificate of deposits came down to Rs.110 bn from Rs.240 bn in
3QFY13. Share of low cost deposits improved to 40% which would help bank to maintain
NIM at 3.5% according to management.
Valuation & View
We upgrade PNB from neutral to add rating on account of improving sign of economy led
by CAD number and softening of inflation. Recently market sentiments are also boosted
up due to exit poll result which revealed that BJP led NDA government would be close to
government formation in coming general election. In our valuation matrix, we value in the
range of 0.6 times to 0.75 times of F14E book depending upon bank’s fundamental and
market sentiment. Looking at current market sentiment and fundamental, we value bank
in the range of Rs.600 to Rs.770 per share. We have added rating on the stock with
current price target of Rs.700.
Current Valuation Range
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
13. 13
PNB
Financial & Assuption
Source : Eastwind/ Company
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Interest Income 26986 36476 41893 43513 49565
Interest Expense 15179 23062 27037 26977 31875
NII 11807 13414 14857 16536 17691
Change (%) 39.3 13.6 10.8 11.3 7.0
Non Interest Income 3613 4203 4216 4240 4240
Total Income 15420 17617 19072 20775 21930
Change (%) 27.6 14.2 8.3 8.9 5.6
Operating Expenses 6364 7003 8165 9621 9430
Pre Provision Profits 9056 10614 10907 11155 12500
Change (%) 23.6 17.2 2.8 2.3 12.1
Provisions 4622 3577 4386 6253 5059
PBT 4433 7037 6522 4902 7442
PAT 4433 4884 4748 3408 5209
Change (%) 13.5 10.2 -2.8 -28.2 52.8
Balance Sheet
Deposits( Rs Cr) 312899 379588 391560 450294 517838
Change (%) 25 21 3 15 15
of which CASA Dep 120325 134129 153344 139752 153766
Change (%) 18 11 14 -9 10
Borrowings( Rs Cr) 31590 37264 39621 47857 44728
Investments( Rs Cr) 95162 122703 129896 143572 149094
Loans( Rs Cr) 242107 293775 308725 339598 356578
Change (%) 30 21 5 10 5
Ratio
Avg. Yield on loans 8.7 9.7 10.3 9.6 10.5
Avg. Yield on Investments 6.0 6.4 7.4 7.2 7.8
Avg. Cost of Deposit 4.4 5.6 6.5 6.4 6.6
Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 4.4 4.5 3.9 4.0 4.1
Valuation
Book Value 682 820 924 1000 1107
CMP 1220 926 759 543 543
P/BV 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5
14. Persistent System.
Footing on Product Business, and working aggressively on new emerging services;
11%
Key facts from Management Interview to Media( on 20
th
March,2014)
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 1.1 76.8 85.7
Rel. to Nifty 3.4 75.8 82.3
Current 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 38.96 38.96 38.96
FII 18.26 15.28 14.84
DII 18.78 21.23 19.31
Others 24 24.53 26.89
3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%
432.75 432.37 0.1 332.98 30.0
104.3 100.8 3.5 82.4 26.6
64.2 60.8 5.6 49.5 29.7
24.1% 23.3% 80bps 24.7% (60bps)
14.8% 14.1% 70bps 14.9% (10bps)
14
1 year forward P/E-x
Rs, Crore
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
4236
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
"Persistently innovating.."
CMP 1059
Target Price 1070
On recent management Interview, Persistent System announced its new footing of
dedicated product business unit “Accelerite” to align its business strategy combined with
Products and IP (Intellectual Property) based on SMAC (Social, Mobility, Analytics,
Cloud) platform.
Company update Book Profit
Previous Target Price 960
Upside 1%
Nifty
Share Holding Pattern-%
6483
Stock Performance
PERSISTENT
52wk Range H/L 1220/477
Average Daily Volume 12139
Market Data
BSE Code 533179
NSE Symbol
PAT
(1) Persistent System is setting up a unit related to product and Product services, named it
“ Accelerite” to manage efficiently. They are taking some of its IP led products into this
Accelerite. We expect that company is able to compete as a product company, which
“Accelerite” will in the market.
(2) Management expects that the overall trends are looking good on Industry per se and
new emerging segment will play a major role for growth. Now, clients are moving into new
changes and focusing into new services and solution.
(3) For 4QFY14E, muted set of growth could be seen and expecting Intellectual Property
(IP) growth this quarter.
(4) The business outlook though is very positive in the sense, and they are seeing good
opportunities, good pipeline growth and many good interesting deals being signed.
(5) Persistent system is expecting to see IP led growth at a range of 18-19% in FY14E and
20%+ in FY15E driven by HPCA without any addition of new IPs. At same point of time,
they are also looking to scale strong potential of rCloud after adding new capabilities.
Persistent management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seeing good
activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of newer
technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility, M2M, digital transformation are gaining
a lot of traction because of pickup in demand environment. Because of actively
investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healthy growth.
View and Valuation: The company’s focus is shifting greater proportion to IP led services
and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around cloud, mobility,
digital and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering the company’s premium
valuation, we advice “Book Profit” on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 1059, stock trades at
13.4x FY15E earnings. Our view could be change with management guidance, higher
currency flactuations and post earnings of coming quarter.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
We cover Persistent System as one of the few companies in the tier-II with potential to
grow revenue at a range of 18-20%, specially focused on emerging business and
relationship building with marquee clients. Despite better predictability of growth and
attractive visibility of its expansion in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit
on the stock because of its premium valuation.
Change from Previous
"Book Profit"
21st Mar' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
16. TCS
Key facts from Management Commentary:
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute -5.9 29.9 67.2
Rel. to Nifty -13.3 18.8 57.1
Current 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 73.9 73.96 73.96
FII 16.33 16.09 15.67
DII 5.26 5.58 5.90
Others 4.51 4.37 4.47
3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%
21294 20977.2 1.5 16069.93 32.5
6686.76 6633.0 0.8 4660.49 43.5
5333.43 4633.3 15.1 3549.61 50.3
31.4% 31.6% (20bps) 29.0% 240bps
25.0% 22.1% 290bps 22.1% 290bps
16
Share Holding Pattern-%
Nifty 6524
Stock Performance
1 year forward P/E
Rs, Crore
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(5) Currency will play a small role with marginal impact of cross currency movement and
average currency movement. There may be some accounting changes related to
recognition of forex gains or losses, but it is not likely to be material.
View and Valuation: We continue to remain positive on its demand outlook and margin
profile, the management expects for robust deal pipeline going forward and also expects
to materialize its emerging space like Digital as well as Cloud, Mobility, Analytics and Big
data. We expect, TCS will be star performer in growth sense than other peers. Hence, we
are maintaining 17% (revised from 18%) revenue growth in dollar term for FY14E
because of improved demand environment, while NASSCOM expects 12-14% for the
Industry. At a price of Rs 2041, it is trading at 18x FY15E earnings, We maintain" BUY"
view on the stock with a target price of Rs 2510.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
PAT
Mid Quarter's Analyst Meet: Lower than expected growth for 4QFY14E, but still better
outlook for FY15E than FY14E,
" Strong Fundamentals"
CMP 2041
Target Price 2510
Company update Buy
On Mid Quarter Analyst Meet, TCS also commented on weak revenue growth
momentum for 4QFY14E followed by Infosys due to weak seasonality. Growth in
4QFY14E would be lower than the preceding quarter and margin would decline 40-50
basis points on cross currency movement and higher investments. However, sigh of
relief was seen on FY15E outlook and comments on overall demand environment.
Market Data
BSE Code 532540
Previous Target Price 2360
Upside 23%
Change from Previous 6%
Now, revenue in 4QFY14E could be a bit lighter than what we had expected post 3QFY14
earnings. We are not much surprise on comments on weak revenue as well as ramping
down on margin picture for current quarter. We believe that the 1QFY15E, the first
seasonally strong quarter of the year, is the stern litmus test of TCS’s confidence for
FY15E.
(1) For 4QFY14E, revenue would be lower than preceding quarter because of seasonal
impacts, and domestic revenue may clock negative growth largely impacted by upcoming
general election. However, no pressure would be seen on revenue for FY15E.
(2)Margin would decline by 40-50 basis points on cross currency movement and higher
investments. However, company is expecting no hiccups on margin for long- term
prospect.
(3) The company is very optimistic on Europe, US and UK growth could be inline. Latin
America will see good growth. Europe will continue to do well, and the US and the UK will
be close to industry average. Middle East and APAC could be seen on flattish node.
(4) Across vertical, Media and Entertainment has reported better, Telecom remains
challenged. While, there could be some ray of growth because of higher penetration in
Europe.
Average Daily Volume 1011877
NSE Symbol TCS
52wk Range H/L 2384/1300
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) 433985
"BUY"
20th Mar' 14
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
17. 17
Considering above growth factors, we are not expecting any major concern with
company's growth. The company is also focussed to drive operational improvements in
the business and aims to expand reach in non-traditional markets and servicelines.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
We expect 1% (QoQ) revenue growth in
USD term for 4QFY14E,
Unlike Infosys, TCS comments are based on potential impact from seasonally lower
demand in its biggest market (US and Europe) and weak domestic demand environment.
On previous comments, management had already quoted regarding demand volatility at
home because of upcoming poll.
Comparing with its nearest rival Infosys, TCS is not facing largely with any specific issue.
Despite a weak commentary on 4QFY14E, management is aggressively confident to report
better numbers in FY15E with healthy demand outlook. We are considering following
factors for its growth story in FY15E.
Healthy Demand Environment: TCS is much confident on healthy demand outlook and
expects that FY15E could be better year than FY14E propelled by better discretionary
spending in the US. Management suggests that except India, other emerging markets
(contributes 18-19% of revenue) continue to see healthy demand. Also, in its FY15
revenue growth models, India (contributes 7% of sales) is the only market which TCS
expects to be weak.
TCS.
Is there any setback?
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
No sign of any ramp down: Management suggests that Continental Europe will likely
grow ahead of overall company growth in FY15E. On vertical front, smaller verticals such
as Energy & Utilities, Transportation and Life sciences & Healthcare might grow ahead of
overall company average. While, its mature verticals like BFSI and Retails could grow
flattish, Telecom continues to face structural issue. Contracts wins from continental
Europe could change the shape of verticals. Still, we are not seeing any project ramp
down.
New emerging business on demand: A part of legacy business, the emerging
opportunities in helping large corporations tap areas such as social media and data
analytics are seen as increasingly contributing to the IT sector's next phase of growth. TCS
and its Indian competitors are winning a significant share of several 2nd and 3rd
generation renewal contracts as western companies look to both cut costs and modernise
their IT infrastructure.
Sales (USD) and Sales growth-%
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
19. HDFC Bank
741
760
720
3
6
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 11.8 15.1 15.1
Rel.to Nifty 4.7 4.8 4.8
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
3Promoters 22.7 22.7 22.7
FII 34.9 33.6 34.9
DII 9.3 9.8 6.6
Others 33.1 33.8 34.2
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 10543 12885 15811 18713 22944
Total Income 14878 18668 22664 26604 30835
PPP 7725 9391 11428 14516 15572
Net Profit 3926 5167 6726 8453 9119
EPS 84.4 22.0 28.7 36.0 38.9
19
CMP
Target Price
We have raised our price target to Rs.760/share on account of bank’s likely to
get benefit from FCNR deposits mobilization that it had recently raised. We
value bank in the range of Rs.660 to Rs.760 per share on the back of current
fundamental and prevailing economic scenario. Now the economy is
witnessing some sign of revival and market sentiment boost up on account of
exit poll result. HDFC bank is likely to see earnings boost-up in near term on
account of mobilization of FCNR deposits which would reflect better NII for
being a low cost carrying in nature, recently RBI allow banks to use 33% of
buffer/floating provisions for bad loan and declining of low yielding PSL share
in overall lending.
Previous Target Price
Market Data
Upside
BSE Code 500180
Mounting bad loans have major cause of worry; RBI allowed banks to use 33%
of counter cycle, floating provisions for specific provisions
Recently RBI allows banks to use 33% of counter cycle provisioning buffer, floating
provisions for making specific provisions against impaired accounts which would help
bank to make lower provisions and hence boost up earnings. HDFC bank reported
very strong asset quality with GNPA and net NPA stood at 1% and 0.3% at the end
of December quarter. Bank would use counter cycle buffer, floating provisions for
specific provisions and make lower fresh provisions. This would be the result of
boosting up profitability.
Average Daily Volume
Counter cycle provisions and floating provisions are represented as capital reserves
that bank need to build up in good times and can only use for contingencies under
extra circumstance. This is the first time when central bank allows to use since the
reserve were created starting 2010. At the end of quarter all banks reported Rs.1.71
trillion of GNPA, the rise of 39.4% YoY. In a very rough estimate, banking system
has nearly about Rs. 2 trillion in bad loans and another Rs.4 trillion loans are being
restructured pipeline out of total Rs.82 trillion.
Company update HOLD
176874
Raised foreign deposits higher amount in comparison to peers; likely to report
better NII for being low cost in nature
750/528
NSE Symbol HDFCBANK
52wk Range H/L
Change from Previous
HDFC Bank Vs Nifty
Share Holding Pattern-%
4.17 lakhs
Nifty 6524
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Stock Performance
In last quarter, HDFC bank has raised FCNR deposits to the tune of $3.4 bn nearly
about Rs.21000 cr through RBI special window which carry interest rate of 3.5%
while normal deposits rate are in the range of 6.5% to 7%. HDFC Bank raised larger
chunk of monies in compare to other banks like SBI and ICICI bank. SBI and ICICI
bank raised monies through FCRN deposits to the tune of $2bn each. Further
incremental foreign deposits with tenure are more than 3 years are exempted from
SLR, CRR and PSL lending. This would help bank to lower cost of fund by 75 bps to
100 bps and hence margin expansion. Bank management guided margin would be in
the range of 4.1% to 4.5% going forward.
"HOLD"
20th March.,2014
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
20. 20
Source:Eastwind/Company
HDFC BANK
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Share of PSL down sharply; release fund would be deployed in high yield sector
Recently share of PSL in HDFC bank came sharply but bank already met PSL target of
40% which means addition fund would be deployed in high yield segment which would
reflect in NII growth. According to RBI, bank’s need to spend 40% in net advance in
priority sector lending and HDFC bank are among those which have highest share in PSL
in private bank category. Additionally fund raised fund through FCNR deposits with
tenure more than 3 years are exempted from SLR, CRR and PSL means bank would
have higher fund for deploying in sector those are high yield in nature.
Valuation & View
HDFC bank is expected to report better earnings on the back of (a) likely to get benefit
from FCRN deposits mobilization, (b) recent RBI allow bank to use 33% of counter cycle
buffer provisions for specific provisions, this would help bank to make lower provisions
and hence profitability and (c) share of additional PSL lending would be deployed in high
yielding sector. We have raised our price target to Rs.760/share which is upper side of
our valuation band.
Valuation Band
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
21. 21
HDFC BANK
Financials
Source: Eastwind/ Company
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
P/L 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Interest/discount on advances / bills 15085 21124 26822 32002 40213
Income on investments 4675 6505 7820 9311 10952
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 148 137 282 373 373
Others 20 108 141 65 65
Total Interest Income 19928 27874 35065 41751 51603
Others Income 4335 5784 6853 7891 7891
Total Income 24263 33658 41917 49642 59494
Interest on deposits 8028 12690 16321 20281 24337
Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 1336 2253 2889 4571 4278
Others 20 47 44 44 44
Interest Expended 9385 14990 19254 23038 28659
NII 10543 12885 15811 18713 22944
NII Growth(%) 25.7 22.2 22.7 18.4 22.6
Other Income 4335 5784 6853 7891 7891
Total Income 14878 18668 22664 26604 30835
Total Income Growth(%) 20.3 25.5 21.4 17.4 15.9
Employee 2836 3400 3965 4231 5342
Other Expenses 4317 5878 7271 7857 9921
Operating Expenses 7153 9278 11236 12087 15263
PPP( Rs Cr) 7725 9391 11428 14516 15572
Provisions( Incl tax provision) 3799 4224 4701 1751 6453
Net Profit 3926 5167 6726 8453 9119
Net Profit Growth(%) 33.2 31.6 30.2 25.7 7.9
Key Balance Sheet Data
Deposits 208586 246706 296247 355496 426596
Deposits Growth(%) 24.6 18.3 20.1 20 20
Borrowings 14394 23847 33007 50785 47529
Borrowings Growth(%) 11.4 65.7 38.4 54 -6
Loan 159983 195420 239721 299651 365574
Loan Growth(%) 27.1 22.2 22.7 25 22
Investment 70929 97483 111614 114580 156461
Investment Growth(%) 21.0 37.4 14.5 3 37
Eastwind Calculation
Yield on Advances 9.4 10.8 11.2 10.7 11.0
Yield on Investments 6.6 6.7 7.0 8.1 7.0
Yield on Funds 7.7 8.9 9.3 10.1 9.9
Cost of deposits 4.3 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.2
Cost of Borrowings 9.4 9.6 8.9 9.0 9.0
Cost of fund 4.2 5.5 5.8 5.7 6.0
Valuation
Book Value 545.5 127.5 154.3 189.4 222.3
P/BV 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.0
P/E 27.8 23.6 21.8 18.7 17.3
22. Narnolia Securities Ltd
402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
email: research@narnolia.com,
website : www.narnolia.com
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consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
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