10. Policy development Parallell activities: Intelligent benchmarking etc. Future options: Foresight etc. Past experience: Impact analysis, History etc. Current context: Policy analysis, structure and dynamics Modes of Strategic Policy Learning (partly based on Ken Guy, 2006)
11. Source: APEC Center for Technology Foresight Futures Studies Strategic Planning Policy Development Foresight The Foundations of Foresight
12.
13. T he Johari Window KNOWN KNOWNS UNKNOWN KNOWNS KNOWN UNKNOWNS UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS Knowledge management e nvironment scanning trends imagination S trategic planning Foresight
14. Global Strategic Trends Source: Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)
26. what might happen – need to understand this your vision – need to create this
27. “ Effect of uncertainty on objectives” ISO 31000:2009 - Perception that something could happen. - Likelihood of something happening. - Consequences if it does happen. RISK
49. Three Scenarios TPA Corp. Concentrate on profit making activities, RBM, CEO, less synergy Value of Non-Profit Organization (NPO) From association to foundation, new dimension for learning, synergy and teamwork, Prime Minister’s Price in International Cooperation for NPO New Synergy Competition from universities, synergy spear-headed by consultancy, practical solution provider, expansion of service to provinces, closer relationship with China
50.
51. Should TPA become a private company since some of its operations are making profit?
W e are a group of practitioners (e.g. SWOT is given a bad name because mostly it fails in practice O ur strength is management skill W e train people CDG case is our return customer
T he role of foresight: Foresight is about creating insights , not information. A tool for policy learning. Strong overlap/synergy with other modes of policy learning.
T his chart explains how foresight is different from conventional strategic planning
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