12 KEY ISSUES WHICH WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR COLLEGES AND POLYTECHNICS

1. The Future Isn't a
Straight Line from
the Past -
Challenge and
Change and the
Future of Learning
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA

2. This Presentation
A Brief History of
the Future – 12
Pieces of the Jigsaw
1
Implications for
Higher Education
2
The Challenge for
Polytechnics
3

3. “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra
“The future will be better tomorrow” Vice President Dan
Quayle
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future..”
Niels Bohr

4. Demographics
 As baby boomers retire the dependency
ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by
2030
 Some countries below population
replacement – especially Japan
 Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia,
China
 Immigration essential in many countries –
Canada needs to double its immigration to
“stay the same”

5. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
 424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in
Asia
 New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) –
almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa
 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are
headquartered in Asia – more to come

6. Globalization
 MOOCs: 81.5 million individuals
registered for one of 9,500
MOOCs from 800+ universities
and colleges in 2017
 Supply chains are global – look
at the BMW Mini. 300 options for
exterior trim -
15,000,000,000,000,000 possible
combinations.
 Parts delivered to Oxford Just in
Time 0 – enough for 1 shift.
3,600 parts in a standard Mini
(up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S)
– from 47 countries.

7. Planet in Peril
 9.5 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
 If we continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to
supply this population
 Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme
weather events
 Environmental challenges are real and urgent

8. Rapid Advances in Technologies
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
 Robotics
 Blockchain
 Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
 Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science

11. Technology Will
Impact Work..
 30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
 Some jobs will disappear, new
jobs will emerge
 Some workers with low level
cognitive skills will not find work
 We will all have to dance with
robots and share our intelligence
with machines

12. The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
 20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is
approaching 40%
 Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal
employment in Canada
 The UK has zero hours contracts…
 Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to
pursue full time work – looking for work : life
balance

13. New Forms of Organizations
 Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web
organizations – Amazon and Uber are more common models
than Proctor and Gamble
 Global businesses are:
 Aggregators and brokers
 Networked supply chains
 Using gig labour and smart technologies
 Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find
them
 Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..

14. Austerity and Recession
 US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) have a
$400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will
become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.
 Total debt from all sources (government, corporate,
personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.
 In the US, to deliver current levels of public services
(everything from education to health care to
pensions) to the projected population in 2030,
taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940
billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170
billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another
US$90 billion.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”

15. Growing
Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on
January 3—the first working day
of the year.
 Fewer than 90 families in Canada
hold roughly as much wealth as
everyone living in Newfoundland
and Labrador, New Brunswick
and Prince Edward Island
collectively owns.
 1 in 7 Canadian residents live in
poverty and 1.3 million children
live in poverty.

16. Identity and
Meaning
 1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely
 Mental health issues – especially
for teens – growing
 Identity and meaning from work,
family, community are all
changing
 Compassion and empathy in
decline as is spirituality
 Meaning cannot be found in
“stuff” but in purpose and
compassion

17. Implications for Colleges and
Polytechnics
The “So What?” Question

18. Secure New Markets
Reimagine Business
Processes
Hyperscale Platforms
for Global Reach
Unconstrain Supply of
Learning Supports
Refining and
Strengthening their
Value Proposition

19. 6 Big Implications
 Flexibility is key – modular, stackable, on-demand learning
 Assessment anytime, anywhere – assessment is the key to the skills agenda
 Think glocal – faculty, learning and assessment are global resources offered locally and local
resources offered globally
 Learner mobility is key - its not your job to “capture” students, it’s your job to enable them
 Programs have structure but the learner needs to be able to codesign their own program
 Collaboration not competition is the key to all of our futures

20. Challenges for the Polytechnic
Polytechnics are the Key to the Future

21. As long as..
 They don’t try to become universities – don’t lose sight of
the mission
 They stay closely connected to their communities and their
challenges
 They think “laddering” from apprenticeship to applied
doctoral degrees and everything in between
 They become more and more flexible – more and more
uber-learning organizations and less rigid
 They stay closely connected to firms, organizations and
social networks in their jurisdiction
 They rethink quality in terms of “fit for purpose” as opposed
to the “mythical beast”
 They are fun – learning is supposed to be fun!

22. So The Big
Picture..
 It’s a time of significant change..
 More change to
come…unbundling, new global
competitors, new ways of
learning
 A new global financial crisis..
 It’s what we live for, right!
 The key – focused and strategic
leadership…