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RUSSIA AND THE REST "Now I hold all Creation in my foot - I kill as I please because it is all mine - I am going to keep things like this." Ted Hughes

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2008-10-02 OIL & GAS TELCO CONFLICTS DOMESTIC "Russia is a state [whose interests] will now be taken into account Russia does not want confrontation with any country. Russia does not plan to isolate itself" 2008-08-01 OIL & GAS INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

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JUL 08 SEP 08 <ul><li>Quotes </li></ul><ul><li>...sent aircraft to monitor the situation in South Ossetia earlier this week due to fears of a Georgian invasion of the de facto independent republic. &quot;We are very much indignant at Russia's aggressive policy. We will take some forceful diplomatic steps in order to respond adequately to Russia's actions. From today, we are recalling our ambassador in Russia for consultations&quot; - Russian Information Agency Novosti [07/10/2008] </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Russia has been a particularly active market for that. The business generally comes through identifying companies that are growing and getting out there to meet them.&quot; Global boost for City PR - PR Week [07/24/2008] </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;The possible deployment of the Russian strategic aviation in Cuba could be a very good response to USA's plans to deploy NATO bases near Russia's borders,&quot; Russia's former Air Force Commander, Pyotr Deinekin said. &quot;I do not see anything biased about it, because the USA treats Russia as nobody when it decides to station its air bases and radar posts in close proximity to Russian borders,&quot; the general said. &quot;Russian strategic bombers can patrol the US coastline for about 1.5 hours, refuel and return back to Russia,&quot; the official said.&quot; USA deeply concerned about Russian nuclear-capable bombers returning to Cuba - Pravda [07/23/2008] </li></ul><ul><li>...Yesterday, Russia said some of the executives could stay. But Brown's spokesman said the firm's treatment &quot;sends a worrying signal to investors about doing business in Russia&quot; . Under Vladimir Putin, Medvedev's predecessor, Britain's relations with Russia fell to the worst level of any major European country after the Russians move to end rift with UK - Guardian Unlimited [07/03/2008] </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Russia is also developing its relations, its dialogue, with other countries in the region, including Iran&quot; Russia's government spokesman said Saudi-Russia arms deal 'not linked to Iran' - Trade Arabia [07/15/2008] </li></ul>Quotes ... What Europe is telling Russia is that we want links with Russia, that we want to build a shared future with Russia, we want to be Russia's partner&quot; he said in a reference to the recent clash between the European Union and Russia over the conflict in Georgia France says an enlarged G-8 could help settle world problems - Topnews.in [09/24/2008] And as Secretary Rice said last week, &quot;To reach its full potential, Russia needs to be fully integrated into the international political and economic order. But Russia is in the precarious position of being half in and half out. If Russia ever wants to be more than just an energy supplier, its leaders have to recognize a hard truth: Russia depends on the world for its success, and it cannot change that. . . . Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization is now in jeopardy.&quot; Enhancing U.S. Trade and Export Opportunities - Media For Freedom [09/29/2008] &quot;The picture emerging from this pattern of behavior is that of a Russia increasingly authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad “ The Standard [09/18/2008] 'We have a very strong interest in Russia being engaged - especially on Iran,' he said, adding: &quot;We don't want a weak and humiliated Russia. We've always tried to reach out to Russia.&quot; Looking ahead - HispanicBusiness.com [09/27/2008] . &quot;Continued exports to Russia are in jeopardy as Russia retaliates for U S diplomatic criticism of Russia's incursions into Georgia.&quot; Weekly Outlook: Pork Industry - USAgNet [10/01/2008] “ The situation is not fair to Russia, it is humiliating for Russia. We are not going to tolerate this any longer&quot; he added Medvedev says Russia will not hesitate to attack Georgia, despite its Nato path - Gulf News [09/12/2008] &quot;Right now, Russia is a problem, let's face it ... that doesn't mean we can't work with them, but it has to be tested&quot; Major powers to discuss Iran amid Russia tension - Reuters UK [09/18/2008 ]

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FORCES THAT CAN`T BE IGNORED

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RUSSIAS GEOPOLITICS IS LIKE A GAME OF CHESS

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ACTIONS <ul><li>Soft power inherited that was gone is now being re-established </li></ul><ul><li>Strategy until Aug 08 had not included the use of hard power ( Georgia) </li></ul><ul><li>Extensive use of the energy dependency of many countries . (Georgia, Ukraine) </li></ul><ul><li>Trade embargos on countries that irritates the leadership.( Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia) </li></ul><ul><li>Change of modus operandi in 2008 </li></ul>

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POSITION BEFORE AUG 08

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I think Russia has come to the conclusion that trying to play by rules that were established by the West is futile, because Russia will lose. Russia feels that the West isn't ready or interested in considering it as an equal partner. So Russia opted for another scenario, in which it acts as it sees fit.“ [08/29/2008]

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THINGS THAT GOT LOST IN THE FIRE <ul><li>Until the event is AUG 2008 a broad security dialogue had developed between Russia and the EU. </li></ul><ul><li>There has been several apparently coincidental interests, including crisis management, the sale of Russian military technology to the EU, counter- terrorism and preventing the proliferation of WMD. </li></ul><ul><li>Soft security is an important but often overlooked area of Russia-EU security cooperation. This also began to develop in the early 1990s and a range of mechanisms have been established to facilitate cooperation in issues such as border control, combating organized crime, nuclear safety and environmental protection. </li></ul><ul><li>However, practical cooperation has remained localized, fragmented and inconsistent. Many of the apparently coincidental interests are more competitive or conflicting than really cooperative. Moreover, few on either side actively push the development of the relationship. </li></ul><ul><li>The failure to develop the practical side of the relationship has generated increasing frustration in Russia . </li></ul>

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WHO GOVERNS RUSSIA?

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<ul><li>“ The sovereign must be autocratic, for no other form of government but that which concentrates all power in his person is compatible with the dimensions of a state as great as ours... </li></ul><ul><li>Any other form of government would be not only harmful, </li></ul><ul><li>but utterly ruinous for Russia” </li></ul><ul><li>– Catherine the Great </li></ul>

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SO WHO PULL THE STRINGS?

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Fuel <ul><li>The philosophical glue that holds together many of the siloviki , the former spooks now running Russia, is that they despised the myriad changes in their homeland during Boris Yeltsin's presidency. </li></ul><ul><li>They believed the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a humiliation, and the chaos, crime, and corruption that erupted in the decade that followed were a disaster </li></ul>

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” OZERO”

15.
1996 2008 KGB 88-91 Lawyer in St Petersburg (for mayor Sobchak, 2004 2000 Chairman GAZPROM 1991 Head of Putin Presidential Campaign President of Russia Putin's first deputy chief of staff first deputy prime minister Prime minister President of Russia Head of Russian Railways Director of Rosneft V. Strzhalkovsky MMC Norilsk Nickel depoty Transportation Minister BaltUneximbank “ ozero” “ ozero” “ ozero” St Petersburg city council from 1990 to 1996 In St Petersburg (for mayor Anatoly Sobchak, N.Patrushev Putin Medvedev I Sechin V.Yakuniin Minister of Security of the Republic of Karelia. Federal Service of Counterespionage (FSK), Secretary of the Security Council of Russia. Director of the FSB 1980 KGB (Leningrad 1975 :appointed to the First Chief Directorate (PGU), an elite division of the KGB Head of the Federal Touriism agency S Ivanov In 1975 – 2004 he worked in KGB and its successors in Leningrad/Saint Petersburg 1976 KGB (Leningradi) First Dep. Prime Minister United aircraft copr minister of defense 19768KGB (Leningradi) Federal Security Service. V Ivanov presidential aide Chariman of Almaz Antei & Aeroflot St Petersburg hief of secretariat of vice-mayor Sobchak Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation “ ozero” “ ozero” 1985-1991 KGB JSC Stream Vladimir Alexeyevich Smirnov

16.
The Oligarchs M Friedman Roman Abramovich Vagit Alekperov Alexei Mordashov Vladimir Yevtushenkov Nikolai Tsvetkov Iskander Makhmudov Victor Rashnikov Alexei Kuzmichov Alexander Abramov Dmitry Pumpyansky Alisher Usmanov Roustam Tariko Leonid Fedun Viktor Vekselberg Mikhail D. Prokhorov Vladimir O. Potanin Vladimir Lisin Dmitry Rybolovlev

17.
SO WHAT CAN THE ”WEST” DO? <ul><li>Sanctions won´t work </li></ul><ul><ul><li>US has no economic leverage on Russia on its own </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Europe has a high dependency on energy from Russia but has so far not applied the same anti –trust standards as with other countries. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Russia with “new old” friends can prosper on its own in the long term </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New set tools handling Russia is needed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. policy and EU policy towards Russia, have been a complete failure in both the goals and the means. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Short term actions will be accepted </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Acceptance of a new multi-polar world </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Apply same rules for everyone – positive and negative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Acceptance of Russia as an equal player not as a second citizen, </li></ul></ul>