Anytown - Infrastructure Interdependencies and Resilience
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A project looking at developing awareness and cognisance of the effect of infrastructure interdependencies on resilience and climate change adaptation
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Anytown - Infrastructure Interdependencies and Resilience
- 1. Anytown 16 May 2013 Matthew Hogan London Resilience Team www.londonprepared.gov.uk | @London_Preapred
- 3. London = Complex Simplification aids understanding Existing Models = Too complex for whole system understanding Further simplification needed Anytown
- 5. Emergency Services & Military Health Telecommunications Environment Local Authorities & Business Transport Energy Water
- 6. Health Sector Local Authorities and Businesses Climate and Environment Sector Transport Sector Emergency Services Sector Utilities Sector Trains Stop (5 mins) Loss of Passenger Info Systems Emergency Generator Systems kick in Likely changes in demand profile Emergency Generator Systems kick in Acute Primary & Community Impact on Community Water Electricity TelecomsHealth and Safety issues Revert manual systems Safety issues for nursing and residential care Comms difficulties with fleet Variability in mortuary business continuity plans Monitoring equipment affected Loss of electronic transactions and ability to obtain cash from ATMs Distress for MH patients H&S issues for schools Failure of automatic flood protection systems Continuity of cold chain drug storage Potential rise in admissions (vulnerable) Retail fuel stops Rise in food safety incidents Impact to water pumping (mains) Potential water pumping issues in buildings Potential water quality issues Security barriers and theft prevention systems fail Staff H&S issues Challenges communicating with oncoming staff Cessation of elective and non- emergency cases Challenges to some diagnostic services VOIP, DECT and Internet likely to fail Mobile base stations fail (hours) Increased fixed line demand Implementation of demand management Unable to recharge mobile phones and Airwave terminalsElectricity Failure Relocation to alternative sites Additional problems may be caused by limitations of working during natural light Unable to send Flood Alert notifications Trapped passengers Reduced ability to heat/cool home Dependencies on equipment at home Impacts on national transport Airport diversion possible Likely changes in demand profile Limited train service resumes Potential for public disorder incidents Possibly unable to retrieve electronic data Impacts to manufacturing, banking and leisure Difficulties in communicating between schools and parents Large scale evacuation or shelter may be required Mutual aid to provide alternative supply Challenges in communicating with residents and businesses
- 7. Next Steps & Further Information Contact Matthew.Hogan@london.gov.uk Engage with London Resilience Team www.londonprepared.gov.uk Twitter: @London_Prepared Facebook: LondonPrepared Further high level mapping for other sectors Community impact mapping Enhanced data analysis Development of advanced visualisations Implement responder and community applications
Notas do Editor
- Thanks Ian, Firstly can I say thank you to Defra for their funding – and it’s really interesting to be gathered here today to see the product of local initiatives and innovation. I’d like to take just a few minutes to talk to you about the London Resilience Team project – Anytown. I think we’re perhaps slightly different to the other projects you’ll hear from today, in that the outcomes of our project don’t explicitly, at the moment, assist community resilience directly. That said, it’s always been the intention that following the Defra funded part of the project there are a range of opportunities where Anytown can assist local communities to enhance their resilience.London Resilience Team were the main drivers behind Anytown although we worked closely with UK Power Networks, Thames Water, the Emergency Planning College and the London Climate Change Partnership. And, just for clarity, whilst our project is called Any ‘TOWN’ we approached this right from the outset with a view to developing understanding about where people live, be that towns, cities or small villages – perhaps in hindsight we should have called it Anywhere! Anyway – I’m just going summarise the background to the project, where we currently are, and what we think our next steps are. And I’ll be around for the whole workshop if anyone has any questions.
- We’re all familiar with the notion that an event in one place can have consequences elsewhere, whether we call this the ripple effect, the domino effect or the butterfly effect, it’s a demonstration of interdependencies in systems. In the UK this was particularly evident in the 2007 flooding, where the ingress of contaminated flood water into the Mythe water treatment works in Gloucestershire resulted in loss of potable tap water for 150,000 people, and the flooding of a power station was narrowly avoided. More recently, in October 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the Caribbean and United States of America and crippled transport, fuel, energy and telecommunications networks. And estimates released this week suggest that up to 9.3 million people, across 20 states, lost electricity (for scale – that’s more of less the daytime population of Greater London), these disruptions resulted in and exacerbated impacts within the community, within business and economically as well. We’ve consistently found in London that whilst there are small pools of tacit knowledge about interdependencies, levels of general awareness are low, and there is little explicitly in our current work. This has been borne out in both exercises and in incidents. In addition, with the climate change projections as they are, extreme weather events, which can disrupt infrastructure, are predicted to increase not only in frequency but also in intensity, and therefore represents one of the highest risks across the UK. Therefore it’s imperative that we understand how resilient our infrastructure systems are, and to highlight where there are known, unknown or under-appreciated interdependencies. Whilst helpful in normal circumstances, these interdependencies represent areas of vulnerability. Therefore being aware of them means that appropriate actions can be taken now, to prevent or mitigate future impacts.
- London is a hugely complex place and it’s a complexity present wherever people live. From the behaviour of many individual agents we see the emergence of patterns and structure at the macro scale. CLICKWe see examples of this every day – anyone who got the underground to City Hall today will have no doubt seen the ‘Tube Map’ which actually bears little resemblance to reality, but enables understanding about the transport network. However, to understand the way in which systems work together and alongside each, we need to simplify further whilst preserving the aspects that we’re interested in exploring. CLICKThis is essentially the aim of Anytown. To take a look at cities as a whole and figure out what are the key relationships between different sectors which have an impact or potential impact on resilience.
- Anytown started with some research. However, it very quickly became apparent that attempts to model interdependencies for whole city systems were few and far between. There was some comparable projects in Toronto and Australia, but they have a slightly different focus. However, we were able to draw on a body of research looking more generically at system interactions from ecology, biology and cybernetics. But we realised that we’d need to supplement this with our own data. CLICKThis was done in the form of two back to back workshops held in late February which attracted over 100 participants from 52 organisations (some of whom are here today). Attendees considered the impacts that various incidents would have, and in a slight variation to other workshops I’ve attended, we avoided discussion on response behaviour – focusing clearly on the knock on consequences. The data that we collected needed some degree of processing but we have been able to produce some preliminary visualisations which reveal some relationships and interdependencies, to improve our collective understanding. CLICKIn addition, we’re also starting a parallel process of data analysis, to go beyond description of the relationships and generate a more developed understanding. This is the point of the project that we’re currently at, however we have a continued vision for the project which I’ll also talk about. I’ll come back to the plan for Anytown in just a moment.
- But just to expand slightly on the workshops. By April 2013, Anytown was never going to be the immersive training environment that we’re hopeful it will one day be. Due to the time restrictions, and I’m sure some of the other projects faced similar issues,it was necessary to develop some limitations. One of which was the sheer complexity of trying to capture whole system information. CLICKWe looked at how Government conceptualises infrastructure, and compared with a number of international approaches. To help with the analysis of the workshop data, we devised a taxonomy of infrastructure, which meant that data could be quickly processed, essentially this was a system to codify the responses from the workshops. Very broadly speaking, we used the categorises listed – however the team developed much more detail which sat beneath this, which described various sublevels within each group. CLICKAnother limitation was that it was necessary to focus on just one or two infrastructures, and due to the involvement of UK Power Networks and Thames Water in the project, that was the scenarios that we used. Of course, in order for Anytown to be truly representative, it would need to explore the consequences of other systems. The aspect of the project, and that which makes it unique, was that we approached Anytown from the outset as a fictional and abstract, multi-dimensional, geographical and jurisdictional place. This allowed workshop attendees to explore issues without impediments of local knowledge, reputational damage or established protocols. It was a useful way to ‘level the playing field’ and ensure that the views of all participants were accorded equal weight.
- So, what’s the outcome of the project so far? Well, we’ve taken the raw data from the workshops andreferencing my earlier slide, created a range of ripple diagrams. Originally it had been intended that each ripple would represent a time period, however it became apparent that this level of granualrity was not extracted during the workshops, however we were able to develop these ripples as outlining the first order, second order and third order impacts – so the impacts around the outer edge generally require an impact on a ring closer to the centre. Mapping the interdependencies in this way illustrates both the range and paths of cascading effects,and my personal observation was that many attendees left with a great number of questions for their Business Continuity Teams to consider. But the other facet that capturing information in this way revealed, is that there are some deifinite peaks and troughs, dependant on organisation or sector, of times at which impacts are likley. This is a useful planning tool, to know that there will be some rapid cascading consequences which affect sectors X Y and Z, but that sectors A and B are actually relatively self sufficient for a period of time – this would allow for resources to directed where they are most required. The main aspect that this approach has highlighted, which obviously isn't news to Emergency Planners, but could be new to thoise not directly involved, and is certainly the first time that this has been explicitly captured – is that it shows that costs from an event are spread across mutilple sectors and therefore responsibility for planning and response lies with multiple parties – failure to involve any one organisation, or of any one party to take action may have consequences on others.
- So what’s next for Anytown? Well, as I mentioned at the outset, the intention of the project has always been to produce a tool which can be used by responders, but also a resource which can be made publically accessible to enhance community preparedness. This is still the intention, and we’ve been meeting with a range of stakeholder, including the London Climate Change Partnership and Climate UK to discuss the applications of this type of approach in developing climate change adaptation strategies. So, at the moment, we’re at a stage where we have a good informational tool to provide professional partners with some realistic consequences of incident – this can be used to generate high fidelity training or exercises, and we’re aware already that the ECRRG Emergency Communications Response and Resilience Group, a national forum within the telecoms sector, wish to employ the Anytown information in a training event they will be holding later in 2013. In addition, it’s being used to influence the development of the next London Gold Summit – an awareness raising event for London’s strategic decision makers in July 2013. Behind the scenes, we’re continuing with the data analysis – delving further into the data and picking apart where the interdependencies really lie and how they manifest themselves. This is ongoing work, with support from a London Borough, to ensure that all interdependencies are revealed. Subject to resources being available, we’ll then take the information that we have and build Anytown virtually. We’ve already had conversations with the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis at UCL and Ordnance Survey about how this could be achieved, and we’ll be progressing these discussion through the Summer in addition to making a joint bid with the LCCP for FP7 funding to continue the project in the autumn. We’ll also take any donations from any partners here! I hope that gives you a brief overview of what has been a really interesting project to be involved with. I’d like to give my thanks to the organisations who have assisted in the development but most of all, my thanks to those people who attended the workshops. I think the key things that I learned during the process is that the model is only as good as the information which feeds it. I’m happy to take any questions or I’ll be around for the rest of the session and my contact details are on the slide if you want to get in touch after today’s event. Thanks you.