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Google Book Settlement: Symposium at New York Law School

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Summary presentation at NY law school symposium on the copyright implications of Google’s library project. Contributed to a discussion about the potential size of the ‘orphan’ issue based on an analysis conducted in 2008. A link to this report is located on the last page of this deck.

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Google Book Settlement: Symposium at New York Law School

  1. 1. Michael Cairns Managing Partner Information Media Partners Google Book Settlement New York Law School Symposium 2009
  2. 2. 2 Introduction Michael Cairns is a publishing and media executive with over 25 years experience in business strategy, operations and technology implementation. As a business executive, Mr. Cairns has successfully managed several troubled and under- performing businesses, creating new business opportunities, developing new funding sources and enhancing shareholder value for investors. His years spent as an operating executive have largely been with brand-name publishing companies such as Macmillan, Inc., Berlitz International, Wolters Kluwer Health, Reed Elsevier and R.R. Bowker. As a consultant, Mr. Cairns has worked with clients as diverse as AARP, Hewlett Packard, InterPublic Companies and Reed Elsevier with an emphasis on business strategy, market development and corporate development. His skills and experience include:  Business and corporate strategy development and implementation  Operations management and business transformation  Traditional and digital publishing and operations  Print-to-digital transformation and adoption of new business models  Software development and software services Mr. Cairns holds an MBA (Finance) from Georgetown University and a BA from Boston University. He has served on several boards and advisory groups including the Association of American Publishers, Book Industry Study Group and the International ISBN organization. Additionally, he has public and private company board experience. 2 Michael Cairns Information Media Partners Strategy Consulting New York, London, Melbourne Tel: 908 938 4889 Michael.cairns@infomediapartners.com Find me: LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram
  3. 3. 3 Information Media Partners Michael Cairns established Information Media Partners in 2006 as a boutique strategy consulting firm focused on the information and education publishing segment. The work conducted by the firm includes product development, corporate development, sales management and corporate reorganizations. We work with established businesses, private equity owners and potential acquirers. Examples of our work include:  Reorganized and re-focused a $25 million software publishing company by aligning business operations with client priorities; implementing internal collaboration tools and project management standards; re-building executive team to focus on effective and efficient management  Defined a new business strategy for a large non-profit association and advocacy group, expanding their business model into global markets to exploit their core knowledge and expertise across a broader market  Led an information technology capabilities review at a large international advertising holding company. Completed over 200 interviews in 15 international offices and multiple group focus sessions to define the operational ‘gaps’ between existing agency capabilities and those necessary and important for client delivery by region  Completed a sales management effectiveness review for a global software company and defined six key project initiatives to improve sales effectiveness, market development and account management We approach our client engagements in a standardized, logical manner which creates the best environment to identify key business drivers, administrative and logistical road blocks and/or product or market definition issues. Our investigative approach leads to better insights into your businesses and supports the development of workable solutions and recommendations for success. Visit the Information Media Partners website for more information. Sample Client List
  4. 4. 4 Google book settlement Summary findings from my report on the Google Book project:  Libraries will see tremendous advantages – both immediate and over time - from the GBS, although concerns have been voiced (notably from Robert Darnton of Harvard)(4)  Google’s annual subscription revenue for licensing to libraries could approach $260mm by year three of launch  Over time, publishers (and content owners) will recognize the GBS service as an effective way to reach the library community and are likely to add titles to the service(5)  Google will add services and may open the platform for other application providers to enhance and broaden the user experience  The manner in which the GBS deals with orphan works will provide a roadmap for other communities of ‘orphans’ in photography, arts, and similar content and intellectual property  Summary presentation at NY law school symposium on the copyright implications of Google’s library project  Contributed to a discussion about the potential size of the ‘orphan’ issue based on an analysis conducted in 2008  A link to this report is located on the last page of this deck
  5. 5. 5 Components of the Database Assumptions on Content:  Copyright books in the database  Orphan books in the database  Books ‘come out of the database’ based on:  Not books  Copyright claimed (left in or pulled out)  Unclaimed/Orphans
  6. 6. 6 Data points on Title Count From OCLC report & Grabois Analysis:  18 million titles in Google Five (G5) Library Partners  A 40% overlap translates to approximately 11million “unique” titles  Over 3 million titles counted in German and French (400 languages counted)  49% of G5 titles published in English: 9.2MM (includes UK and US)  9.2MM/7.0mm = 76% US titles – Reasonable?  Approximately 10,000 new titles produced per year between 1910-58  80,000 title count reached in mid-1980s  150,000 title count reached in late 1990s  300,000+ titles count reached in 2007  Estimate: 7 Million unique titles produced in the US  3 million titles in Books In Print (40% of total 7million)  OCLC: 75% of all titles published after 1945 and 50% after 1974 From Google:  7 million titles  4-5 million titles are under copyright scanned without authority  Multiple editions of same work  Works published between 1923 and 63 in public domain
  7. 7. 7 Conclusions (Best Guess) on title counts  7 million unique titles  3 million with clear provenance  4 million – questioned:  15% foreign: 600,000  25% UK: 1,000,000  Multiple editions 20%: 800,000  Other (non-books, photo books, etc) 10%: 400,000  1.2 million balance remaining:  Estimate 50% will be claimed: 600,000  Balance of 600,000 “true” orphans • Less than 10% of 7 million title total
  8. 8. 8 Components of the market  Components of Pricing  Size of database  Competitive pricing  Unique characteristics  Breadth of content  Pricing for Libraries  Assumes campus wide access  Based on expenditures not FTE’s  Note sales penetration levels  Library numbers from ALA  Corporate  Best guess  Flexibility in model for pricing and penetration  Estimates are reasonable
  9. 9. 9 Summary database licensing revenue
  10. 10. 10 Next steps  Further qualify estimates  Estimate/Build business model for BRR and/or Google  Financial model  Transactions/volumes  Definition of potential additional revenue streams  Pricing profile for ‘competing’ databases in library community  Aid in defining pricing  Further estimation on size of Orphan market  Discussion
  11. 11. 11 Please review my blog post associated with this presentation: http://personanondata.blogspot.com/2010 /04/database-of-riches-business- model.html Michael Cairns Managing Partner Michael.Cairns@InfoMediaPartners.com 908 938 4889 LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram