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THE 5TH THAI-MALAYSIAN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
           ON SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES



   RE-MAKING HISTORICAL MEMORY
        IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

               MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY
              FEBRUARY 16 – 17, 2012
AN ENCOUNTER WITH INVENTED MEMORY
    IN MAKING OF ECONOMIC POLICY

THE CASE OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM




             NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG - VIETNAM
WARM UP!

LET’S SUGGEST SOME CHARACTERISTICS
ABOUT OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
CHARACTERISTICS
OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY


#1 NETWORKS
CHARACTERISTICS
OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY


#2 LIQUIDS
CHARACTERISTICS
OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY


#3 RISKS
CHARACTERISTICS
OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY




#1 DECENTRED & FLAT
#2 NOT KEEP ANY SHAPE FOR LONG
#3 UNFORESEEN RISKS IN GLOBAL DIMENSION
LET’S IMAGINE COFFEE
WHY NEED TO FIND OUT THE SUSTAINABLE
SOLUTION FOR VIETNAM COFFEE INDUSTRY?


AN IMPORTANT PART OF VIETNAM ECONOMY
   USD 2.7 BILLIONS IN 2011 (3% OF THE TOTAL EXPORT
    EARNINGS)
   ~ 300,000 HOUSEHOLDS, > 600,000 WORKERS
COFFEE PRODUCERS & GOVERMENT
GEOGRAPHIC
DISTRIBUTION OF
COFFEE PRODUCTION

•CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
PROVINCES (ROBUSTA)

•SOUTHEAST PROVINCES
(ROBUSTA)

•NORTHERN PROVINCES
(ARABICA)
ROBUSTA PRODUCTION BETWEEN THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE
     OVER THE PERIOD OF 1981/86 AND 2005/10
                                       SOURCE: ICO
OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH FINDINDS
       IN MY MA THESIS
 CREDIT PROVISION & PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT
ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT
        IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH


                   NEW INSOLVED INFORMATION


 CENTRALLY-PLANNED ECONOMY         MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMY

ECONOMIC MINDSET




              ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN VIETNAM
                          1979 - 1986
ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT
      IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH




•   NO CHRONOLOGY
•   FINDING OUT FUNDAMENTAL CAUSES
•   MULTI-DISCIPLINES (ECONOMICS, HISTORY, ETC.)
•   VARIOUS SOURCES (INTERVIEWS, NEWSPAPERS,
    GOVERMENTAL DOCUMENTS, ETC.)
RE-MAKING MEMORY OF COFFEE TRADING IN
       CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM

                       FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS


 INVENTED TRADITION                         NEW ARRIVAL CUSTOM

COFFEE TRADING

                 IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
                         NETWORKS, LIQUIDS, RISKS
PHYSICAL COFFEE FLOWS
VS FUTURES CONTRACT FLOWS
     EXPORTER
6 CONTAINERS x 21 TONS
      = 126 TONS



    FUTUTES                  FUTUTES               FUTUTES
   CONTRACT                 CONTRACT              CONTRACT
 1 LOT = 10 TONS          1 LOT = 10 TONS       1 LOT = 10 TONS



  FARMER                 FARMER             FARMER
 2 TONS/HA               2 TONS/HA          2 TONS/HA



    FUTUTES
   CONTRACT
 1 LOT = 10 TONS
WHAT IS YOUR DECISION?
AN OWNER OF DAKLAK-BASED                A VIETNAMESE CEO OF A 100 %
PRIVATE ENTERPRISE                      FOREIGN COMPANY IN DAKLAK


‘SO MANY COMPANIES AND                    ‘LIFFE OR ICE IS THE BIGGEST

PEOPLE IN DAKLAK LOST                     MARKETS ON THE WORLD. YOU
HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS VND                  THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE
BECAUSE OF USING FUTURES                  RANGE OF CHOICES ONCE
CONTRACT IN LIFFE OR ICE. IT IS           ENTERING INTO IT’
BAD! I NEVER USE IT’

      * LIFFE OR ICE: THE TWO MAIN FUTURES EXCHANGES OF TRADING COFFEE
WHAT IS THEDECISION?

FUTHER INVESTIGATION NEEDED…
Q&A
    THANK YOU

NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG
 MENFUONG@GMAIL.COM

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Phuong thailand - feb 16-17,2012

  • 1. THE 5TH THAI-MALAYSIAN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES RE-MAKING HISTORICAL MEMORY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY FEBRUARY 16 – 17, 2012
  • 2. AN ENCOUNTER WITH INVENTED MEMORY IN MAKING OF ECONOMIC POLICY THE CASE OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG - VIETNAM
  • 3. WARM UP! LET’S SUGGEST SOME CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
  • 4. CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY #1 NETWORKS
  • 5. CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY #2 LIQUIDS
  • 7. CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY #1 DECENTRED & FLAT #2 NOT KEEP ANY SHAPE FOR LONG #3 UNFORESEEN RISKS IN GLOBAL DIMENSION
  • 9. WHY NEED TO FIND OUT THE SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION FOR VIETNAM COFFEE INDUSTRY? AN IMPORTANT PART OF VIETNAM ECONOMY  USD 2.7 BILLIONS IN 2011 (3% OF THE TOTAL EXPORT EARNINGS)  ~ 300,000 HOUSEHOLDS, > 600,000 WORKERS COFFEE PRODUCERS & GOVERMENT
  • 10. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF COFFEE PRODUCTION •CENTRAL HIGHLANDS PROVINCES (ROBUSTA) •SOUTHEAST PROVINCES (ROBUSTA) •NORTHERN PROVINCES (ARABICA)
  • 11. ROBUSTA PRODUCTION BETWEEN THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD OF 1981/86 AND 2005/10 SOURCE: ICO
  • 12. OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH FINDINDS IN MY MA THESIS CREDIT PROVISION & PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 13. ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH NEW INSOLVED INFORMATION CENTRALLY-PLANNED ECONOMY MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMY ECONOMIC MINDSET ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN VIETNAM 1979 - 1986
  • 14. ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH • NO CHRONOLOGY • FINDING OUT FUNDAMENTAL CAUSES • MULTI-DISCIPLINES (ECONOMICS, HISTORY, ETC.) • VARIOUS SOURCES (INTERVIEWS, NEWSPAPERS, GOVERMENTAL DOCUMENTS, ETC.)
  • 15. RE-MAKING MEMORY OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS INVENTED TRADITION NEW ARRIVAL CUSTOM COFFEE TRADING IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY NETWORKS, LIQUIDS, RISKS
  • 16. PHYSICAL COFFEE FLOWS VS FUTURES CONTRACT FLOWS EXPORTER 6 CONTAINERS x 21 TONS = 126 TONS FUTUTES FUTUTES FUTUTES CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT 1 LOT = 10 TONS 1 LOT = 10 TONS 1 LOT = 10 TONS FARMER FARMER FARMER 2 TONS/HA 2 TONS/HA 2 TONS/HA FUTUTES CONTRACT 1 LOT = 10 TONS
  • 17. WHAT IS YOUR DECISION? AN OWNER OF DAKLAK-BASED A VIETNAMESE CEO OF A 100 % PRIVATE ENTERPRISE FOREIGN COMPANY IN DAKLAK ‘SO MANY COMPANIES AND ‘LIFFE OR ICE IS THE BIGGEST PEOPLE IN DAKLAK LOST MARKETS ON THE WORLD. YOU HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS VND THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE BECAUSE OF USING FUTURES RANGE OF CHOICES ONCE CONTRACT IN LIFFE OR ICE. IT IS ENTERING INTO IT’ BAD! I NEVER USE IT’ * LIFFE OR ICE: THE TWO MAIN FUTURES EXCHANGES OF TRADING COFFEE
  • 18. WHAT IS THEDECISION? FUTHER INVESTIGATION NEEDED…
  • 19. Q&A THANK YOU NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG MENFUONG@GMAIL.COM