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1
The Government's 1990 Predictions of
the Year 2015
What Did They Get Right?
Space Travel And a $4.2 trillion miscalculat...
Introduction
29/15/2015
Back in 1990 most of us were just making our way in life… How did the world look
then? And how wha...
1990 Prediction for 2015
3
249,632,000
303,400,000
320,500,000 325,656,000
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast
(Aggres...
1990 Prediction for 2015
Urban Decay
…Continued decay of the old urban
centers and the isolation of minority
groups living...
1990 Prediction for 2015
59/15/2015
1.90%
2.20%
2.40%
1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual*
U.S. GDP Growth
Sources: http://ww...
1990 Prediction for 2015
Lower Standard Of Living
The growing interconnectedness of the world will be the
great change dri...
Standard Of Living Changes
79/15/2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_of_living_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Gd...
1990 Prediction for 2015
89/15/2015
Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ http://www.loc.g...
1990 Prediction for 2015
99/15/2015
Sources: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf; http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf
...
1990 Prediction for 2015
109/15/2015
Sources: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf; http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf...
1990 Prediction for 2015
119/15/2015
Sources:
http://www.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2012_Demographics_Report....
1990 Prediction for 2015
129/15/2015
Sources:
http://www.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2012_Demographics_Report....
1990 2015 Prediction
Multi-Polar Political World
The largely bi-polar world that existed after
World War II will have give...
1990 Prediction for 2015
149/15/2015
Sources: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.PP.CD
http://www.loc.gov/rr/...
1990 Prediction for 2015
159/15/2015
Sources: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.PP.CD
http://www.loc.gov/rr/...
1990 Prediction for 2015
USSR
The Soviet Union will occupy a position of
prime importance in U.S. strategic planning
even ...
1990 Prediction for 2015
Asia
The Pacific area will grow in importance
for United States security interests.
Japan will re...
1990 Prediction for 2015
189/15/2015
Sources: http://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2015/cb15-ff01.html
http:/...
1990 Prediction for 2015
199/15/2015
Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/
http://www.loc....
1990 Prediction for 2015
209/15/2015
Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Asian_Americans
http://www.loc...
1990 Prediction for 2015
219/15/2015
Sources: https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/education-materials/fact-sheets/24/71/preventing-mo...
1990 Prediction for 2015
The Middle East
Islamic fundamentalism will be the driving force in the region, replacing
traditi...
1990 Predictions for 2015
One cannot overestimate the future
importance of software.
239/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Pr...
1990 Prediction for 2015
249/15/2015
Sources: http://www.bestbuy.com
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.p...
1990 Prediction for 2015
259/15/2015
Sources: http://www.bestbuy.com
http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.p...
1990 Prediction for 2015
Inventions
26
All digital radio broadcasting.
High Definition TV format.
9/15/2015
U.S. Governmen...
1990 Prediction for 2015
Inventions
27
Civilian aircraft and air traffic control
systems
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 ...
1990 Prediction for 2015
Inventions
28
Personal communications equipment,
including video Information access (to
newly pub...
Prediction for 2015
Inventions
29
Surveillance/reconnaissance technology
(Drones / Unmanned Aerial Vehicles?)
9/15/2015
U....
Prediction for 2015
Inventions
30
Space travel
9/15/2015
U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.lo...
Prediction for 2015
Inventions
31
Automobiles - computerized
control/diagnostics, safety Industrial
plant automation
9/15/...
Prediction for 2015
Inventions
32
Home appliance control - intelligent
controls built-in (Smart Homes)
9/15/2015
U.S. Gove...
1990 Prediction for 2015
339/15/2015
Sources: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/forecast-2015-imported...
1990 Prediction for 2015
349/15/2015
Sources: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/forecast-2015-imported...
1990 Prediction for 2015
359/15/2015
Sources: http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/topics/encyclopedia/renewable-energy/
...
1990 Prediction for 2015
369/15/2015
Sources: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-T-Z/USA--Nuclea...
1990 Prediction for 2015
379/15/2015
Sources: http://www.hydro.com/en/About-aluminium/Aluminium-life-cycle/Primary-product...
1990 Prediction for 2015
389/15/2015
Sources: https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2015/World-crude-stee...
Thank You
Mike Bishop
399/15/2015
www.criticalmissionconsulting.com
mike@criticalmissionconsulting.com
Twitter: futurebash...
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The U.S. Government's Predictions in 1990 predictions for 2015

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Comparison of the U.S. government's 1990 Predictions for 2015 and today's realities.

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The U.S. Government's Predictions in 1990 predictions for 2015

  1. 1. 1 The Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 What Did They Get Right? Space Travel And a $4.2 trillion miscalculation 9/15/2015
  2. 2. Introduction 29/15/2015 Back in 1990 most of us were just making our way in life… How did the world look then? And how what did the experts think life would be like in 2015? In 1991The Library of Congress published a report from recent (1990) research titled DOMESTIC TRENDS TO THE YEAR 2015: FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES. The original report can be found at: http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf The report provided forecasts and predictions in areas including: Demography, The Economy, Resources, Education, Society, Technology, Military Science and Geopolitics and Threats . Comparing their forecasts with our world today offers very interesting results. In some areas (especially where the fairly simple math is needed, like Median Age), the authors were right on. In other areas (such as the rise of economies like India, or the downfall of the USSR), they were way off. The following offers insights as to the degree to which the world changes within over 25 years, the limitations of some predictions, and how, in other ways, the future is very predictable, and familiar. Mike Bishop, JD 801-244-8622 mike@criticalmissionconsulting.com Twitter: @futurebash Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikebishops
  3. 3. 1990 Prediction for 2015 3 249,632,000 303,400,000 320,500,000 325,656,000 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast (Aggressive) 2015 Actual U.S. Population 9/15/2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/
  4. 4. 1990 Prediction for 2015 Urban Decay …Continued decay of the old urban centers and the isolation of minority groups living in them, trends already well established today. 49/15/2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
  5. 5. 1990 Prediction for 2015 59/15/2015 1.90% 2.20% 2.40% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual* U.S. GDP Growth Sources: http://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united- states-since-1990/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
  6. 6. 1990 Prediction for 2015 Lower Standard Of Living The growing interconnectedness of the world will be the great change driver in the next decades. Ordinary Americans may have to accept a lower standard of living as other countries take more of the world's wealth. 69/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  7. 7. Standard Of Living Changes 79/15/2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_of_living_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Gdp_versu s_household_income.pn
  8. 8. 1990 Prediction for 2015 89/15/2015 Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf -files/domestic_trends.pdf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States 71.8% 62.8% 63.7% 11.7% 13.8% 12.2% 2.9% 4.4% 4.7% 9.0% 14.7% 16.4% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual White Black Asian Hispanic U.S. Ethnicity
  9. 9. 1990 Prediction for 2015 99/15/2015 Sources: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf; http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf -files/domestic_trends.pdf http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=195 71.80 74.60 76.20 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual U.S. Life Expectancy Male
  10. 10. 1990 Prediction for 2015 109/15/2015 Sources: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf; http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf -files/domestic_trends.pdf http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=195 78.80 81.50 81.29 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual U.S. Life Expectancy Female
  11. 11. 1990 Prediction for 2015 119/15/2015 Sources: http://www.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2012_Demographics_Report.pdf http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 33 37.6 37.6 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual Median Age in the U.S.
  12. 12. 1990 Prediction for 2015 129/15/2015 Sources: http://www.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2012_Demographics_Report.pdf http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 32.90% 45.50% 30.00% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual Minorities in U.S. Military in 2015
  13. 13. 1990 2015 Prediction Multi-Polar Political World The largely bi-polar world that existed after World War II will have given way to a multi- polar world with a variety of complex political, economic, and strategic relationships. 139/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  14. 14. 1990 Prediction for 2015 149/15/2015 Sources: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.PP.CD http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf $1,006,000,000,000 $1,032,000,000,000 $6,700,000,000,000 $2,540,000,000,000 1990 India 1990 France 2015 India 2015 France 1990 Projection: France and India Will Have the Same GNP in 2015
  15. 15. 1990 Prediction for 2015 159/15/2015 Sources: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.PP.CD http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf $942,100,000,000 $942,800,000,000 $2,956,000,000,000 $2,446,000,000,000 1990 Brazil 1990 UK 2015 Brazil 2015 UK 1990 Projection: Brazil and the UK Will Have the Same GNP in 2015
  16. 16. 1990 Prediction for 2015 USSR The Soviet Union will occupy a position of prime importance in U.S. strategic planning even if that country is weakened by internal political problems and economic crises. 169/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
  17. 17. 1990 Prediction for 2015 Asia The Pacific area will grow in importance for United States security interests. Japan will remain the dominant economic power 179/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
  18. 18. 1990 Prediction for 2015 189/15/2015 Sources: http://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2015/cb15-ff01.html http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 22,400,000 41,900,000 45,000,000 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual U.S. Black Population
  19. 19. 1990 Prediction for 2015 199/15/2015 Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 22,400,000 44,000,000 47,948,000 55,400,000 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast (Aggressive) Actual U.S. Hispanic Population
  20. 20. 1990 Prediction for 2015 209/15/2015 Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Asian_Americans http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 6,908,000 13,000,000 19,437,000 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Actual U.S. Asian Population
  21. 21. 1990 Prediction for 2015 219/15/2015 Sources: https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/education-materials/fact-sheets/24/71/preventing-mother-to- child-transmission-of-hiv-after-birth 1,500 1,500 200 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual Babies Born with HIV (Annually)
  22. 22. 1990 Prediction for 2015 The Middle East Islamic fundamentalism will be the driving force in the region, replacing traditional forms of rule by oil sheiks. This fact will create widespread instability and pose new challenges for the United States in protecting its interests in the area. 229/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  23. 23. 1990 Predictions for 2015 One cannot overestimate the future importance of software. 239/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf
  24. 24. 1990 Prediction for 2015 249/15/2015 Sources: http://www.bestbuy.com http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 16 8,000 40,000 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual Typical Personal Computer Hard Drive (in megabits)
  25. 25. 1990 Prediction for 2015 259/15/2015 Sources: http://www.bestbuy.com http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf $2,000 $2,000 $500 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual Typical Personal Computer Costs
  26. 26. 1990 Prediction for 2015 Inventions 26 All digital radio broadcasting. High Definition TV format. 9/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  27. 27. 1990 Prediction for 2015 Inventions 27 Civilian aircraft and air traffic control systems 9/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  28. 28. 1990 Prediction for 2015 Inventions 28 Personal communications equipment, including video Information access (to newly published info) and Information access (to existing published info) (Cell phones, internet and online video?) 9/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  29. 29. Prediction for 2015 Inventions 29 Surveillance/reconnaissance technology (Drones / Unmanned Aerial Vehicles?) 9/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  30. 30. Prediction for 2015 Inventions 30 Space travel 9/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  31. 31. Prediction for 2015 Inventions 31 Automobiles - computerized control/diagnostics, safety Industrial plant automation 9/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  32. 32. Prediction for 2015 Inventions 32 Home appliance control - intelligent controls built-in (Smart Homes) 9/15/2015 U.S. Government's 1990 Predictions of the Year 2015 http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf- files/domestic_trends.pdf
  33. 33. 1990 Prediction for 2015 339/15/2015 Sources: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/forecast-2015-imported-oil- will-make-just-21-us-consumption http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 42% 55% 70% 21% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast 2015 Forecast (Aggressive) Actual Oil Imports into U.S.
  34. 34. 1990 Prediction for 2015 349/15/2015 Sources: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/forecast-2015-imported-oil- will-make-just-21-us-consumption http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 1.00 3.00 2.70 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual Natural Gas Imports into U.S. (in trillion cubic feet)
  35. 35. 1990 Prediction for 2015 359/15/2015 Sources: http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/topics/encyclopedia/renewable-energy/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 7% 9% 9.8% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual Renewable Energy (% of total U.S. Power Generation)
  36. 36. 1990 Prediction for 2015 369/15/2015 Sources: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-T-Z/USA--Nuclear-Power/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 20% 14% 19% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual Nuclear Power (% of total U.S. electricity generation)
  37. 37. 1990 Prediction for 2015 379/15/2015 Sources: http://www.hydro.com/en/About-aluminium/Aluminium-life-cycle/Primary-production/ http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 21% 9% 11.00% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual U.S. Share of World Aluminum Production
  38. 38. 1990 Prediction for 2015 389/15/2015 Sources: https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2015/World-crude-steel- output-increases-by-1.2--in-2014.html http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/pdf-files/domestic_trends.pdf 10% 4% 5.30% 1990 Actual 2015 Forecast Actual US. Share of World Steel Production in 2015
  39. 39. Thank You Mike Bishop 399/15/2015 www.criticalmissionconsulting.com mike@criticalmissionconsulting.com Twitter: futurebash 801-244-8622

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