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New Zealand’s Energy Outlook The Bio-Energy Opportunity? Mark Walkington Energy Information and Modelling, MED
 
Energy Outlook – Reference Scenario
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N ew Zealand Energy Outlook Thank You Mark Walkington Energy Information and Modelling Ministry of Economic Development [email_address]

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Mark Walkington on the Ministry of Economic Development's energy projections

Notas do Editor

  1. Strong growth in transport and Industry from 1990
  2. The NZ Energy Outlook sees Continued growth – although at lower levels New Zealand’s non-transport energy demand can be split into three broad sectors: Industrial, Commercial and Residential (~35%, 10% and 13% of total demand respectively). The Industrial sector includes New Zealand’s light industry (including agriculture and construction) and heavy industry (wood processing, steel making etc). Energy demand in the industrial sector is relatively evenly spread between coal, oil, gas and electricity. The commercial sector includes wholesale and retail trade, telecommunications, financial institutions etc. Electricity dominates energy demand in the commercial sector at around 65% of the total. Electricity has also experienced the greatest demand growth in this sector. The residential sector reflects household use of energy, and excludes households’ energy use for transport which is covered in the transport demand section. Residential energy demand is dominated by electricity, with almost all of the growth in demand being accounted for in growth in electricity demand.
  3. Importantly, the Reference Scenario is not our expectation of what is going to happen. Rather, it starts from an assumption of business as usual in terms of broad trends in key economic drivers and policy settings . As such, it uses central forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) and New Zealand dollar exchange rates and assumes continuation of agreed government policies such as the emissions trading scheme. Detailed assumptions are discussed at the end of this article. The key assumptions included in this modelling are listed below: GDP growth follows the projections produced by Treasury; in the short term from the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2009, and in the longer term from the Long Term Fiscal Model where rates trend down towards the long-run labour productivity rate of 1.5%. Exchange rates to 2013 are also based on Treasury’s updated forecast. For the period 2014 to 2020 exchange rates trend towards the long term rate of 0.60 US$/NZ$ and remain at this rate indefinitely. Oil prices are assumed to follow the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures price in the near term, trending towards the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) mid case projection of US$120/bbl (real) by 2030.
  4. Little growth in Coal (ETS) and Gas (Supply) – in Oil, Renewables and Electricity
  5. Only fossil fuel; growth is in Oil demand Model turns down gas and coal for electricity production in 2030 …. Huntly last unit? Or gas price effect?
  6. Energy GHG emissions stabilise around current levels
  7. Some fuel switching to electricity and coal as gas price increases from 2020
  8. Nearly all growth in Electricity
  9. Petrol demand doesn’t increase … implications for petrol levy revenue and ACC
  10. Challenges identified include our “addiction” to oil
  11. Comments from the 2008 World Energy Outlook give motivation for our two Alternative Scenarios
  12. Today’s release sets out alternative future energy scenarios for New Zealand that look at the implications of a big indigenous oil or gas find and how New Zealand could reduce its reliance on imported oil. These scenarios show how New Zealand might address some of the potential challenges in New Zealand’s energy future. The scenarios build on a Reference Scenario released in September last year that presented a “business-as-usual” case for energy in New Zealand. The Reference Scenario highlighted several challenges if New Zealand continues along its current path, including a continuing dependence on imported oil, the prospect of further electricity price rises, and increasing energy sector greenhouse gas emissions.
  13. Changing Gear - a scenario considering the effect of high international oil and carbon prices
  14. How would transport react in the face of high fuel prices? Demand reduction including uptake of public transport where available and freight moving to more energy efficient modes The continued high prices make alternative fuels and vehicles economic - electric vehicles and biofuels
  15. 3.2 M ha of forests provide for 8.1 B litres Lge ……. Here 1B litres by 2040 up to 2.5 B by 2050 …… about 1 Million hectares of forest So we could make 2040 total liquid fuels of ~ 4 B litres from 1.6 M ha Scion: New Zealand has 9.6 M ha of hill country grazing with 0.8 M ha highly vulnerable to erosion.
  16. Industrial Discussion
  17. 240 PJ of biomass 2040 ….. ~ 850K say 1M hectares of forest ref: Scion report