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INDIA – USA
TRADE RELATIONS
An Overview of
Today & Tomorrow
INTRODUCTION
Trade between the United States and India has grown steadily ever since India’s
economy began to take off in the mid-1990s and its information technology sector
shot to prominence in the early 2000s. From 1999 to 2018, trade in goods and
services between the two countries surged from USD16 billion to USD 142 billion.
India is now the United States’ eighth-largest trading partner in goods and services.
India’s trade with the United States now resembles, in terms of volume, US trade
with South Korea (USD167 billion in 2018) or France (USD 129 billion).
But as trade between Washington and New Delhi has increased, so too have tensions.
US and Indian officials have disagreed for years on tariffs and foreign investment
limitations, but also on other complicated issues, particularly within agricultural
trade. Concern for intellectual property rights has preoccupied the United States for
thirty years, while issues concerning medical devices and the fast-growing digital
economy have more recently emerged.
HISTORY
INDIAN ECONOMY
As the world’s third largest economy in purchasing parity terms, India aspires to better
the lives of all its citizens and become a high-middle income country by 2030. Between
2011-15, more than 90 million people escaped extreme poverty and improved their
living standards thanks to robust economic growth. However, India’s growth rate has
decelerated in the past two years.
India’s ability to achieve rapid, sustainable development will have profound implications
for the world. India’s success will be central to the world’s collective ambition of ending
extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity, as well as for achieving the 2030
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Indeed, the world will be only able to eliminate
poverty if India succeeds in lifting its citizens above the poverty line.
Previously, the growth was projected to be 6.0 percent this fiscal year and expected to
rise to 6.9 percent in 2020/21 and to 7.2 percent in the following year.
The challenges that the businesses and people are facing currently, the Indian economy
is most likely to experience a lower growth during the last quarter of the current fiscal.
In case the spread of corona virus continues, growth may remain subdued in the first
quarter of FY 20-21 as well. Most international and credit rating agencies have
therefore revised their 2020 and 2021 growth projections for India keeping in view the
negative impact of coronavirus-induced travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions,
subdued consumption and investment levels on the growth of both global and the
Indian economy. However India is not alone, rather there is a silver lining to the cloud as
many Rating agencies feel India will benefit in the short to Long term Period.
.
INDIA’S GROWTH PROJECTIONS REVISED DOWN
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
in its Post-Covid-19-Outbreak revised the growth forecast for G20 countries in
2020. It downgraded the projected FY21 GDP growth of India to 2.1 per cent from 6
per cent before the outbreak. While this looked like a free fall but when compared
with the other G20 countries, India’s growth projection stood on the top while others
are set to dive deep into recession except for two other countries – China and
Indonesia, where both of these countries will grow at 1 per cent in 2020.
The biggest contraction in the GDP growth this year among the rest 17 of the G20
countries would be suffered by Italy (-7 per cent), Germany (-6.8 per cent) and
Argentina (-6.7 per cent) followed by Brazil (-5.5 per cent), Mexico (-5.4 per cent),
France (-5 per cent), Saudi Arabia (-5 per cent), and UK (-5 per cent). The US economy
may contract by -2.2 per cent in 2020.
Moody's Investors
slashed India’s growth forecast for the calendar year 2020 to 0.2%, from 2.5%
projected in March. For 2021, the rating agency expects India's growth to rebound to
6.2%. China is projected to grow 1 per cent in 2020 and 7.1 per cent in 2021.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
further slashed India’s growth estimate for FY21 to 1.9% from 5.8% estimated in
January, warning that the “worst recession since the Great Depression” will dwarf
the economic damage caused by the global financial crisis a decade back. It also said
that India and China would be the only two major economies likely to register
growth, with all others contracting.
As per -IMF’s latest estimate, the Covid-19 pandemic will shrink world output by 3%
in 2020.
India’s share in global trade
(merchandise and services) was 2.1% ( USD
481.74 billion out of total USD 23,044
billion) for exports and 2.6% ( USD 600.62
billion out of total USD 23,112 billion) for
imports in 2017.
Total exports from India (Merchandise &
Services) registered a growth of 2.13 per
cent year-on- year during April 2019
February 2020 to USD 491.64 billion,
while total imports are estimated at USD 559.45 billion, according to the data from
the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
India’s bilateral trade in goods and services is about 3% of US world trade.
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP at market prices 153.6 7.2 6.8 5.8 6.2
Total domestic demand 156.3 9.9 7.7 5 6.1
Exports of goods and services 29.5 4.7 12.5 5 4.4
Imports of goods and services 32.2 17.6 15.4 2.2 4.4
Net exports 1 -2.7 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 -0.2
AN OVERVIEW OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY AND
LATEST DEVELOPMENT
INDIA’S SHARE IN GLOBAL TRADE
Prices (INR trillion)
The US has retained its position of being the world's largest economy since 1871. The
size of the US economy was at USD 20.58 trillion in 2018 in nominal terms and is
expected to reach USD 22.32 trillion in 2020. The US is often dubbed as an economic
superpower and that is because the economy constitutes almost a quarter of the global
economy, backed by advanced infrastructure, technology, and an abundance of natural
resources.
However, the US economy suffered its most severe contraction in more than a decade in
the first quarter of the year 2020, as the country introduced lockdowns to slow the
spread of coronavirus. The world's largest economy sank at an annual rate of 4.8%. It
marked the first contraction since 2014, ending a record expansion.
The US has tried to cushion the economic blow with nearly USD 3tn (£2.4tn) in new
spending, including direct payments to many families. The Federal Reserve has also
taken with a slew of emergency steps, including lowering interest rates to near zero.
US ECONOMY
US
NOMINAL
GDP:
USD 5,383.7 trillion
US
GDP
(PPP):
USD 21.44 trillion
UNITED STATES ECONOMY DATA
US IMPORTS & EXPORTS
In 2019, the total US trade with foreign countries was USD 5.6 trillion. That was
USD 2.5 trillion in exports and USD 3.1 trillion in imports of both goods and services.
The United States imports more than it
exports
The 2019 US trade balance is negative,
showing a deficit of USD 617 billion
Capital goods comprise the largest portions
of both US exports and imports
The United States exports more services
than it imports
UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP per capita (USD) 54,993
17,522
56,787 57,901
18,715
1.9
0.0
2.0
18,225
3.6
0.5
2.6
60,000 62,869
20,580
2.6
3.5
GDP (USD bn) 19,519
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.1
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)
Trade Balance (USD billion)
4.3
5.1
-749.9 -749.9 -749.9 -749.9 -749.9
3.0
5.3 4.7 4.4
Prices (billion EUR)
Key Takeaways-
The United States exports USD 1.65 trillion in goods, or two-thirds of all exports.
Like most countries, the United States exports more goods than services.
Capital goods are the most successful export category. US-based corporations
understand the needs of other multinational firms. Of the USD 547 billion in capital
goods exported, 65% is from six categories:
US EXPORTS
Commercial aircraft
(USD 132 BILLION):
produced mostly by Boeing
Industrial machines
(USD 57 BILLION)
Electric apparatus
(USD 44 BILLION)
primarily Intel and Texas Instruments
Telecommunications
(USD 36 BILLION)
Medical equipment
(USD 38 BILLION)
Unlike most other US export leaders, more than 80%
of medical device companies are small businesses
US EXPORTS OF GOODS BY END-USE CATEGORY
AND COMMODITY
TOP 5 DESTINATIONS ALONG WITH INDIA (EXPORTS)
COMMODITY/SERVICE
December
2019
Monthly
Change
Annual
2019
Foods, feeds, and beverages 10,465
46,035
10,386 79
1,705
153
-1,040
-614
44,331
45,243
13,410
45,396
131,126 133,176 -2,050
-11,101
-15,784
3,002
371
5,097
541,736
547,134
161,841
Industrial supplies and materials 530,634
Capital goods, except automotive 562,918
Automotive vehicles, parts, & engines
Consumer goods
Other goods
12,370
16,454
6,425 5,429 996 68,441 63,344
158,839
17,068 206,350 205,979
In millions of dollars
November
2019
Annual
2018
Annual
Change
Export Destination Mexico Canada China Japan Germany India
Products % 15 12 11 5.3 4.9 1.8
Machines 25 18 19 20 26 21
Mineral Products 16 14 6.8 9.9 2.9 13
Transportation 11 24 21 7.1 16 5.6
Plastics & Rubbers 10 6.5 5.3 2.8 4.2 4.9
Metals 9.1 7.9 4 2.4 3.6 4.8
Chemical Products 8.1 9.8 8.8 17 22 14
Vegetable Products 4.1 3.2 11 8.8 2.8 4
Instruments 2.4 1.2 8.8 13 13 5.9
Precious metals 0.25 0.61 2.4 1.4 2 17
US IMPORTS
Five countries make up almost half of all US imports. They are China, Canada, Mexico,
Japan, and Germany. The United States imported the most goods from Canada until
2007 , but slowly China replaced Canada. In 2019, these five countries supplied 48%
of the USD 2.5 trillion in US imports of goods.
US IMPORTS IN GOODS (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Key Takeaways
The United States imports half of its total volume from five countries: China,
Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Germany.01
Although the United States can manufacture goods it imports, these exporting
countries have the comparative advantage over it.
Their comparative advantages lie in their capability to produce either at low cost or
at a very high quality compared to what US companies are capable of.
02
03
Capital goods and consumer goods make up a large portion of US imports.04
Year China Canada Mexico Japan Germany
2015 481.9 295.2 294.7 131.1 71.8
2016 462.8 278.1 294.2 132.2 114.2
2017 505.6 299.9 314.1 136.5 117.8
2018 539.5 318.5 346 142.6 125.9
2019 452.2 319.7 358.1 143.6 127.5
TOP 5 IMPORT ORIGINS ALONG WITH INDIA
INDIA- US BILATERAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT
Import Origin China Mexico Canada Japan Germany India
Products % 22 14 13 5.8 5.2 2
Machines 50 40 9.7 32 28 7.8
Miscellaneous 13 4 2 0.75 1 2.4
Textiles 8.2 1.7 0.74 - 0.69 16
Metals 5 3.6 8.7 3.7 4.9 6.7
Transportation 3.4 28 23 44 30 3.8
Mineral products - 3.9 28 0.55 0.46 5.8
Chemical products 2.9 1.3 6.1 6 17 20
Plastics & Rubbers 4.2 2.5 5 3.5 4 2.2
Instruments 2.6 3.1 1 6.7 8.5 0.87
Precious metals 0.055 1.7 1.5 0.064 0.8 19
Animal products 0.46 0.84 2.4 0.19 0.24 5
India is currently the 9th
largest goods
in total (two way) goods trade during 2018.
trading partner with USD 87.9 billion
Goods exports totalled USD 33.5 billion; goods imports totalled USD 54.3 billion.
The US goods trade deficit with India was USD 20.8 billion in 2018.
Trade in services with India (exports and imports) totalled an estimated USD 54.8
billion in 2018. Services exports were USD 25.2 billion; services imports were USD
29.6 billion. The US services trade deficit with India was USD 4.4 billion in 2018.
India-US Trade Relations
The United States and India view one another as important strategic partners to
advance common interests regionally and globally. The trading partnership is more
consequential for India; in 2018, the United States was its second largest goods export
market (16.0% share) after the European Union (EU, 17.8%), and third largest goods
import supplier (6.3%) after China (14.6%) and the EU28 (10.2%). US-India Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) is small but growing. Defense sales also are significant in
bilateral trade. Civilian nuclear commerce, stalled for years over differences on liability
protections, has produced major potential US supply contracts.
India-US Strategic Partnership
India-US strategic partnership witnessed rapid growth in 2019 with the two sides
inking a crucial deal to facilitate transfer of defence technology and their leaders -
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi - meeting a record four
times post-May elections, displaying growing ties between the world's two largest
democracies.
The strengthening of the strategic partnership was reflected in the India-US Joint
Statement issued at the conclusion of their second 2+2 Dialogue towards the end of
the year, which was the key highlight of 2019.
In the year gone by, India placed orders worth billions of dollars of state-of-the-art
military equipment from the US, started new tri-services exercise 'Tiger Triumph',
which will now be an annual affair, signed one more foundational agreement and
accelerated the pace of the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI).
Additionally, the co-operation between India and the US has reached a new level when
it comes to the Indo-Pacific region. The two countries are working with other
like-minded partners in this region to ensure that there is freedom of navigation and
peace in the resource-rich region where China has been trying to spread its influence.
Setting up - US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF)
The US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) is a non-profit organization, with
the primary objective of strengthening the US-India bilateral and strategic partnership.
The Executive Board came together in 2017 to establish USISPF with the purpose of
enabling business and governments to collaborate…and create meaningful
opportunities that can positively change the lives of citizens. The formation of USISPF
signals a new chapter in US-India relations. Dedicated to strengthening economic and
commercial ties, USISPF plays a significant role in fostering a robust and dynamic
relationship between the two countries through policy advocacy that will lead to
driving economic growth, entrepreneurship, employment-creation, and innovation to
create a more inclusive society.
INDIA-US TRADE
BILATERAL TRADE FIGURES
PROMINENT INVESTMENTS
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN INDIA BY US
Year 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
India's Export to US 42,448.66 40,336.01 42,212.27 47,878.48 52,406.27
YoY Growth rate (%) -4.98 4.65 13.42 9.46
India's Imports from US 21,814.60 21,781.39 22,307.44 26,611.03 35,549.48
YoY Growth rate (%) -0.15 2.42 19.29 33.59
India-US bilateral trade 64,263.26 62,117.39 64,519.71 74,489.51 87,955.76
YoY Growth rate (%) -3.34 3.87 15.45 18.08
The bilateral trade between India and USA is gaining momentum over the years.
USA FDI in India has increased in recent years but it still remains small compared to USA's total
outward FDI
(in USD Millions)
(in USD Billions)
(in USD Millions)
Year Goods Trade Agricultural Trade Manufacturing Trade Services Trade
2014 66.9 4.2 61.4 37.8
2015 66.2 3.9 60.5 43.2
2016 67.7 3.4 61.8 46.7
2017 74.2 4.2 65.6 51.8
2018 87.9 4.2 74.8 54.8
Year US FDI in India
2014 33,241
2015 35,361
2016 38,634
2017 44,458
2018 45,984
India and America have had strong business relations over the many years and several
American companies are fulfilling the indispensable needs of the Indian market. From
searching online through Google to drinking Coca Cola, or using the latest I-phones by
Apple, the Indian consumer is, by and large, a dedicated follower of American companies.
American companies are preparing to set up an alternative to China by investing in India.
Some renowned American companies are Amazon, Citibank, Coca-Cola, Ford India,
Google, American Express, Pepsico, Hewlett Packard, IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Adobe
Systems Incorporated, Apple Inc., Microsoft Corporation, Cognizant, Oracle.
Google is a leading technology company with a presence across 50 countries. It
set up office in India in 2003 with operations across Delhi, Hyderabad, Mumbai
and Bangalore, and employee strength of over 6500. While the Bangalore unit
houses engineers working on products, Gurgaon and Hyderabad are where the
online advertisement-related operations happen.
Leading technology company with 11,500 stores under 63 banners in 28
countries and e-commerce websites in 11 countries. It came to India in 1990
with offices in 9 cities. Hyderabad is the main campus housing R&D, IT and
global services.
Apple Inc designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication, personal
computers, and portable digital music players for stakeholders worldwide.
Apple opened its first Development Center in India in Hyderabad in May 2016
and has set up iPhone SE assembling operations in Bangalore through its
Taiwanese supplier Wistron Infocomm.
Ford has manufacturing facilities in Chennai and Sanand with more than 376
sales and service outlets in 209 cities across India. As part of its strategy to
Make in India for India and the World, it continues to strengthen India as a
Center of Excellence for small cars and low displacement engines and has
embarked on an accelerated export strategy and presently, exports to over 40
markets around the world.
Exxon has offices in Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR. ExxonMobil’s downstream
business engages in the distribution, sales and marketing of Mobil - branded
lubricant and upstream business provides consulting and LNG market develop-
ment support services for other upstream affiliates.
One of the oldest MNCs in India with presence across sectors including IT,
finance, energy and healthcare with strong capabilities in engineering,
manufacturing, project management and supply of products and solutions for
power generation and transmission infrastructure requirements. GE has two BSE
listed companies – GE Power India Limited and GE T&D India Limited.
PepsiCo, a multinational food, snack and beverage corporation headquartered in
New York entered India in 1989. It has grown into one of the largest MNC, F&B
businesses with 62 plants in India. They have 8 brands in India with estimated INR
1000 cr in annual sales.
One of the world’s oldest financial institutions, JP Morgan was built on the
foundation of more than 1200 predecessor institutions. It has Global Service
Centers in Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad, and provides middle- and
back- office support for every line of business at JP Morgan Chase. It launched
commercial banking in India in 2007.
A multinational medical devices, pharmaceutical and consumer packaged goods
manufacturing company, Johnson & Johnson has been present in the country for
70 years with an employment of more than 3,500 people and is organized into 3
business segments: Consumer Healthcare, Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals.
Citigroup is a multinational financial services corporation headquartered in New
York. It is present in India through its subsidiary Citibank India. The company
operates 35 full-service branches in 19 cities and over 500 ATMs in India, and
employs about 12,500 people.
IMPACT OF COVID-19
As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) rips through America’s biggest cities, its effect
is being felt far beyond the over 140,000 Americans who are confirmed infected. The
quarantines and lockdowns that are needed to fight the virus’s spread are freezing the
economy, too, with unprecedented force and speed. The stock market has sunk a
quarter from its peak last month, wiping out three years of gains. Last week, mean-
while, brought news that a record 3.28 million Americans applied for unemployment
benefits, the highest number ever recorded.
The US and Eurozone’s economies could take until 2023 to recover from the impact
of the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis, if the public health response , including social
distancing and lockdown measures is successful, to curb the spread, according to a
new report from consultancy McKinsey & Company.
The government in April reached out to more than 1,000 companies in the US and
through overseas missions to offer incentives for manufacturers seeking to move out
of China, according to Indian officials. India is prioritizing medical equipment suppliers,
food processing units, textiles, leather and auto part makers among more than 550
products covered in the discussions.
Trump’s move to blame China for its handling of the Covid-19 outbreak, which has
killed more than a quarter-million people worldwide, is expected to worsen global
trade ties as companies and governments move resources out of the world’s
second-largest economy to diversify supply chains.
America is one of the few countries with which India has a trade surplus. On the other
hand, India has a huge trade deficit with China.
2020 GDP growth
% Change
Time to Return to
Pre-Crisis
China -3.9% -2.7% Q2 - 2021
Q1 - 2023
Q3 - 2023
Q3 - 2022
-2.2%
-9.7%
-4.7%
-3.9%
-12.2%
6.2%
USA
Eurozone
World
Real GDP drop 2019
Q4 – 20202 Q2
% change
The global decline in commodity prices—particularly oil prices—will likely reduce
investment spending in the United States. Mining—mainly oil and gas extraction —
accounted for 5 percent of private investment spending in 2018 (the last year
available). The oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia will probably drive
investment in this sector down substantially, reducing demand for manufactured
goods such as pipes and machinery. In 2015–16, a similar decline in oil prices drove
the entire manufacturing sector into decline. The impact now on an already weak US
manufacturing sector is likely to be significant. The sectors which can witness the
shock majorly includes –
Consumption makes up 70% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but
consumption has slumped as businesses close and as households hold off on major
purchases as they worry about their finances and their jobs.
Investment makes up 20% of GDP, but businesses are putting off investment as they
wait for clarity on the full cost of COVID-19. Currently, United Nations projects that
foreign direct investment flows could fall between 5 and 15 percent to their lowest
levels since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.
As recently, many of the countries are going to ban the global exports of the
components to the other country. Over-dependence on one country is hurting the
global economy and countries are now on a lookout for alternative production hubs.
For foreign investors looking for alternative investment locations, that leaves very
few countries that have strong governments also capable of replacing China as an
important source of cheap, skilled labour. Arguably, India and Indonesia tops the list
of candidates. They are large countries located near China. Moreover, India has been
unusually effective in dealing with the Covid-19 crisis so far.
The void created by disruption in global supplies can be filled by India, and it is a great
opportunity for India to recover its economy so India will try to focus on these
categories to increase their production.
TRADE & SECTORAL IMPACT
Consumer Spending growth 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real consumer spending 3.0 3.7 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.6 -4.7 1.9
Real consumer spending-
durable goods 7.2 7.5 6.1 6.9 6.3 4.7 -21.0 -3.8
Real consumer spending-
non durable goods 2.6 3.4 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.3 -2.7 3.5
OPPORTUNITY AREAS
“US has significant investment in China. Prime Minister and Chief Minister want to use
the opportunity where industries are moving out of China and see how they can be
brought to India, especially to UP. Uttar Pradesh cabinet minister Sidharth Nath Singh
said, referring to his home state. Representatives of these companies showed interest
in the fields of agriculture, electronics, medicine, scientific instrumentation, logistics,
defence, aviation and food procession, among others.
With a stable government in the state, coupled with creation of a robust support
infrastructure in terms of roads, water supply, irrigation capacity and 24×7 power
supply, UP is among the frontrunners on the growth trajectory among large states of
the nation,” Singh said.
India expects to win over US companies involved in
healthcare products and devices and is in talks with
Medtronic Plc and Abbott Laboratories on relocating
their units to the country. Representatives of several
US-based companies have also been advised to
propose to the Indian Government to offer incentives
that would facilitate proliferation of US business in
India, thus creating a ready environment for more
business to come to the country.
An Indian official was recently
quoted as saying that as many
as 100 companies want to
leave China because of the
coronavirus pandemic and
relocate to India.
Companies have started viewing India as more
economical in terms of securing land and affordable
skilled labor than if they moved back to the US or
Japan, even if overall costs are still higher than China.
They have also been offered an assurance by the
officials that India will consider specific requests on
changes to labor laws, which have proved a major
stumbling block for companies, and that the
government is considering a request from
e-commerce companies to postpone a tax on digital
transactions introduced in this year’s budget.
Mastercard was also keen on exploring opportunities
in rural areas of Uttar Pradesh by providing the
facility of digital payment to kirana stores. UPS and
Fredix evinced interest to invest in Jewar airport by
developing logistic centres. Boston Scientific has
plans to set up a medical equipment plan.
Further, some states including Maharashtra have
ensured that supply chains for foreign manufacturers
remained functional through India’s national virus
lockdown. Others like Tamil Nadu in the south and
Uttar Pradesh in the north have offered concessions
for those planning to move.
Mukesh Aghi, president of the US -India Strategic and Partnership Forum, a
Washington-based group that advocates for policies that further business ties
between the countries has clearly stated that there’s abundant capital in the US that’s
looking for geographies outside, and that India can be seen as responding to these
opportunities. Simultaneously, companies have begun realizing that while large supply
chains in China may have been economical, there is no point in keeping all your eggs in
one basket.
According to Ajay Sahai, Director General and Chief Executive Officer of the
Federation of Indian Exporters – ‘India is a bigger market than Vietnam or Cambodia
so it should be a bigger draw for investors looking to move operations out of China.
But apart from ensuring land, water and sewerage, the most important change India
needs to make is to give a clear guarantee that the government will not introduce
retrospective tax amendments.’
It has been observed that in 2017, India exported USD 292B, making it the 17th
largest exporter in the world. During the last five years the exports of India have
increased at an annualized rate of 1.2%, from USD 273B in 2012 to USD 292B in
2017. The most recent exports are led by Refined Petroleum which represent
10.3% of the total exports of India, followed by Diamonds, which account for 9.1%.
Specific to US, India, at present, stands as a significant exporter in the following
product categories, and therefore, can envisage a bright chance towards increasing
its trade value with the country by expanding its share of these product categories,
post the pandemic.
Also, with its ‘Make in India’ initiative, the Government of India is focusing majorly on
machinery and ancillary parts. At present, India exports machinery and equipment
worth USD 35.8 billion and US majorly depends on China for - office machines,
computers, vehicle parts, models & stuffed animals, and broadcasting equipment.
Considering the rising tensions between China & US due to the pandemic, it is
expected that there will be a shift in paradigm, allowing India to open more export
avenues in these sectors, along with others such as e-commerce and healthcare
services.
Further, India has a good reserve of commodities such as Rice & Cereals, Tea, Mica &
Other ores, Meat & Poultry and Engineering Goods. Hence, the country can widen its
export of these commodities by globally exploring more countries as well as regions
of interest.
PRODUCTS EXPORT TO US IN %
Diamonds 19
Packaged Medicaments 14
Refined Petroleum 5.4
Crustaceans 4.6
House Linens 2.7
Vehicle Parts 2.4
Vegetable saps 1.2
Other Furniture 0.87
Leather Footwear 0.85
References
https://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/INDIA-2019-OECD-economic-survey
overview.pdf
https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/united-states
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2019pr/12/exh7.pdf
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1912yr.html
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/us-india-bilateral-trade-and-investment-
state-of-play-6285030/
https://www.selectusa.gov/servlet/servlet.FileDownload?file=015t0000000LKMV
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ind/#Exports
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa/
https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/

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An overview of India USA trade relation today and tomorrow

  • 1. INDIA – USA TRADE RELATIONS An Overview of Today & Tomorrow
  • 2. INTRODUCTION Trade between the United States and India has grown steadily ever since India’s economy began to take off in the mid-1990s and its information technology sector shot to prominence in the early 2000s. From 1999 to 2018, trade in goods and services between the two countries surged from USD16 billion to USD 142 billion. India is now the United States’ eighth-largest trading partner in goods and services. India’s trade with the United States now resembles, in terms of volume, US trade with South Korea (USD167 billion in 2018) or France (USD 129 billion). But as trade between Washington and New Delhi has increased, so too have tensions. US and Indian officials have disagreed for years on tariffs and foreign investment limitations, but also on other complicated issues, particularly within agricultural trade. Concern for intellectual property rights has preoccupied the United States for thirty years, while issues concerning medical devices and the fast-growing digital economy have more recently emerged. HISTORY
  • 3. INDIAN ECONOMY As the world’s third largest economy in purchasing parity terms, India aspires to better the lives of all its citizens and become a high-middle income country by 2030. Between 2011-15, more than 90 million people escaped extreme poverty and improved their living standards thanks to robust economic growth. However, India’s growth rate has decelerated in the past two years. India’s ability to achieve rapid, sustainable development will have profound implications for the world. India’s success will be central to the world’s collective ambition of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity, as well as for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Indeed, the world will be only able to eliminate poverty if India succeeds in lifting its citizens above the poverty line. Previously, the growth was projected to be 6.0 percent this fiscal year and expected to rise to 6.9 percent in 2020/21 and to 7.2 percent in the following year. The challenges that the businesses and people are facing currently, the Indian economy is most likely to experience a lower growth during the last quarter of the current fiscal. In case the spread of corona virus continues, growth may remain subdued in the first quarter of FY 20-21 as well. Most international and credit rating agencies have therefore revised their 2020 and 2021 growth projections for India keeping in view the negative impact of coronavirus-induced travel restrictions, supply chain disruptions, subdued consumption and investment levels on the growth of both global and the Indian economy. However India is not alone, rather there is a silver lining to the cloud as many Rating agencies feel India will benefit in the short to Long term Period. . INDIA’S GROWTH PROJECTIONS REVISED DOWN
  • 4. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in its Post-Covid-19-Outbreak revised the growth forecast for G20 countries in 2020. It downgraded the projected FY21 GDP growth of India to 2.1 per cent from 6 per cent before the outbreak. While this looked like a free fall but when compared with the other G20 countries, India’s growth projection stood on the top while others are set to dive deep into recession except for two other countries – China and Indonesia, where both of these countries will grow at 1 per cent in 2020. The biggest contraction in the GDP growth this year among the rest 17 of the G20 countries would be suffered by Italy (-7 per cent), Germany (-6.8 per cent) and Argentina (-6.7 per cent) followed by Brazil (-5.5 per cent), Mexico (-5.4 per cent), France (-5 per cent), Saudi Arabia (-5 per cent), and UK (-5 per cent). The US economy may contract by -2.2 per cent in 2020. Moody's Investors slashed India’s growth forecast for the calendar year 2020 to 0.2%, from 2.5% projected in March. For 2021, the rating agency expects India's growth to rebound to 6.2%. China is projected to grow 1 per cent in 2020 and 7.1 per cent in 2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) further slashed India’s growth estimate for FY21 to 1.9% from 5.8% estimated in January, warning that the “worst recession since the Great Depression” will dwarf the economic damage caused by the global financial crisis a decade back. It also said that India and China would be the only two major economies likely to register growth, with all others contracting. As per -IMF’s latest estimate, the Covid-19 pandemic will shrink world output by 3% in 2020.
  • 5. India’s share in global trade (merchandise and services) was 2.1% ( USD 481.74 billion out of total USD 23,044 billion) for exports and 2.6% ( USD 600.62 billion out of total USD 23,112 billion) for imports in 2017. Total exports from India (Merchandise & Services) registered a growth of 2.13 per cent year-on- year during April 2019 February 2020 to USD 491.64 billion, while total imports are estimated at USD 559.45 billion, according to the data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. India’s bilateral trade in goods and services is about 3% of US world trade. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP at market prices 153.6 7.2 6.8 5.8 6.2 Total domestic demand 156.3 9.9 7.7 5 6.1 Exports of goods and services 29.5 4.7 12.5 5 4.4 Imports of goods and services 32.2 17.6 15.4 2.2 4.4 Net exports 1 -2.7 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 -0.2 AN OVERVIEW OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY AND LATEST DEVELOPMENT INDIA’S SHARE IN GLOBAL TRADE Prices (INR trillion)
  • 6. The US has retained its position of being the world's largest economy since 1871. The size of the US economy was at USD 20.58 trillion in 2018 in nominal terms and is expected to reach USD 22.32 trillion in 2020. The US is often dubbed as an economic superpower and that is because the economy constitutes almost a quarter of the global economy, backed by advanced infrastructure, technology, and an abundance of natural resources. However, the US economy suffered its most severe contraction in more than a decade in the first quarter of the year 2020, as the country introduced lockdowns to slow the spread of coronavirus. The world's largest economy sank at an annual rate of 4.8%. It marked the first contraction since 2014, ending a record expansion. The US has tried to cushion the economic blow with nearly USD 3tn (£2.4tn) in new spending, including direct payments to many families. The Federal Reserve has also taken with a slew of emergency steps, including lowering interest rates to near zero. US ECONOMY US NOMINAL GDP: USD 5,383.7 trillion US GDP (PPP): USD 21.44 trillion
  • 7. UNITED STATES ECONOMY DATA US IMPORTS & EXPORTS In 2019, the total US trade with foreign countries was USD 5.6 trillion. That was USD 2.5 trillion in exports and USD 3.1 trillion in imports of both goods and services. The United States imports more than it exports The 2019 US trade balance is negative, showing a deficit of USD 617 billion Capital goods comprise the largest portions of both US exports and imports The United States exports more services than it imports UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP per capita (USD) 54,993 17,522 56,787 57,901 18,715 1.9 0.0 2.0 18,225 3.6 0.5 2.6 60,000 62,869 20,580 2.6 3.5 GDP (USD bn) 19,519 Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.1 Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) Trade Balance (USD billion) 4.3 5.1 -749.9 -749.9 -749.9 -749.9 -749.9 3.0 5.3 4.7 4.4 Prices (billion EUR) Key Takeaways-
  • 8. The United States exports USD 1.65 trillion in goods, or two-thirds of all exports. Like most countries, the United States exports more goods than services. Capital goods are the most successful export category. US-based corporations understand the needs of other multinational firms. Of the USD 547 billion in capital goods exported, 65% is from six categories: US EXPORTS Commercial aircraft (USD 132 BILLION): produced mostly by Boeing Industrial machines (USD 57 BILLION) Electric apparatus (USD 44 BILLION) primarily Intel and Texas Instruments Telecommunications (USD 36 BILLION) Medical equipment (USD 38 BILLION) Unlike most other US export leaders, more than 80% of medical device companies are small businesses
  • 9. US EXPORTS OF GOODS BY END-USE CATEGORY AND COMMODITY TOP 5 DESTINATIONS ALONG WITH INDIA (EXPORTS) COMMODITY/SERVICE December 2019 Monthly Change Annual 2019 Foods, feeds, and beverages 10,465 46,035 10,386 79 1,705 153 -1,040 -614 44,331 45,243 13,410 45,396 131,126 133,176 -2,050 -11,101 -15,784 3,002 371 5,097 541,736 547,134 161,841 Industrial supplies and materials 530,634 Capital goods, except automotive 562,918 Automotive vehicles, parts, & engines Consumer goods Other goods 12,370 16,454 6,425 5,429 996 68,441 63,344 158,839 17,068 206,350 205,979 In millions of dollars November 2019 Annual 2018 Annual Change Export Destination Mexico Canada China Japan Germany India Products % 15 12 11 5.3 4.9 1.8 Machines 25 18 19 20 26 21 Mineral Products 16 14 6.8 9.9 2.9 13 Transportation 11 24 21 7.1 16 5.6 Plastics & Rubbers 10 6.5 5.3 2.8 4.2 4.9 Metals 9.1 7.9 4 2.4 3.6 4.8 Chemical Products 8.1 9.8 8.8 17 22 14 Vegetable Products 4.1 3.2 11 8.8 2.8 4 Instruments 2.4 1.2 8.8 13 13 5.9 Precious metals 0.25 0.61 2.4 1.4 2 17
  • 10. US IMPORTS Five countries make up almost half of all US imports. They are China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Germany. The United States imported the most goods from Canada until 2007 , but slowly China replaced Canada. In 2019, these five countries supplied 48% of the USD 2.5 trillion in US imports of goods. US IMPORTS IN GOODS (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Key Takeaways The United States imports half of its total volume from five countries: China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Germany.01 Although the United States can manufacture goods it imports, these exporting countries have the comparative advantage over it. Their comparative advantages lie in their capability to produce either at low cost or at a very high quality compared to what US companies are capable of. 02 03 Capital goods and consumer goods make up a large portion of US imports.04 Year China Canada Mexico Japan Germany 2015 481.9 295.2 294.7 131.1 71.8 2016 462.8 278.1 294.2 132.2 114.2 2017 505.6 299.9 314.1 136.5 117.8 2018 539.5 318.5 346 142.6 125.9 2019 452.2 319.7 358.1 143.6 127.5
  • 11. TOP 5 IMPORT ORIGINS ALONG WITH INDIA INDIA- US BILATERAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT Import Origin China Mexico Canada Japan Germany India Products % 22 14 13 5.8 5.2 2 Machines 50 40 9.7 32 28 7.8 Miscellaneous 13 4 2 0.75 1 2.4 Textiles 8.2 1.7 0.74 - 0.69 16 Metals 5 3.6 8.7 3.7 4.9 6.7 Transportation 3.4 28 23 44 30 3.8 Mineral products - 3.9 28 0.55 0.46 5.8 Chemical products 2.9 1.3 6.1 6 17 20 Plastics & Rubbers 4.2 2.5 5 3.5 4 2.2 Instruments 2.6 3.1 1 6.7 8.5 0.87 Precious metals 0.055 1.7 1.5 0.064 0.8 19 Animal products 0.46 0.84 2.4 0.19 0.24 5 India is currently the 9th largest goods in total (two way) goods trade during 2018. trading partner with USD 87.9 billion Goods exports totalled USD 33.5 billion; goods imports totalled USD 54.3 billion. The US goods trade deficit with India was USD 20.8 billion in 2018. Trade in services with India (exports and imports) totalled an estimated USD 54.8 billion in 2018. Services exports were USD 25.2 billion; services imports were USD 29.6 billion. The US services trade deficit with India was USD 4.4 billion in 2018.
  • 12. India-US Trade Relations The United States and India view one another as important strategic partners to advance common interests regionally and globally. The trading partnership is more consequential for India; in 2018, the United States was its second largest goods export market (16.0% share) after the European Union (EU, 17.8%), and third largest goods import supplier (6.3%) after China (14.6%) and the EU28 (10.2%). US-India Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is small but growing. Defense sales also are significant in bilateral trade. Civilian nuclear commerce, stalled for years over differences on liability protections, has produced major potential US supply contracts. India-US Strategic Partnership India-US strategic partnership witnessed rapid growth in 2019 with the two sides inking a crucial deal to facilitate transfer of defence technology and their leaders - President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi - meeting a record four times post-May elections, displaying growing ties between the world's two largest democracies. The strengthening of the strategic partnership was reflected in the India-US Joint Statement issued at the conclusion of their second 2+2 Dialogue towards the end of the year, which was the key highlight of 2019. In the year gone by, India placed orders worth billions of dollars of state-of-the-art military equipment from the US, started new tri-services exercise 'Tiger Triumph', which will now be an annual affair, signed one more foundational agreement and accelerated the pace of the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI). Additionally, the co-operation between India and the US has reached a new level when it comes to the Indo-Pacific region. The two countries are working with other like-minded partners in this region to ensure that there is freedom of navigation and peace in the resource-rich region where China has been trying to spread its influence. Setting up - US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) The US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) is a non-profit organization, with the primary objective of strengthening the US-India bilateral and strategic partnership. The Executive Board came together in 2017 to establish USISPF with the purpose of enabling business and governments to collaborate…and create meaningful opportunities that can positively change the lives of citizens. The formation of USISPF signals a new chapter in US-India relations. Dedicated to strengthening economic and commercial ties, USISPF plays a significant role in fostering a robust and dynamic relationship between the two countries through policy advocacy that will lead to driving economic growth, entrepreneurship, employment-creation, and innovation to create a more inclusive society.
  • 13. INDIA-US TRADE BILATERAL TRADE FIGURES PROMINENT INVESTMENTS FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN INDIA BY US Year 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 India's Export to US 42,448.66 40,336.01 42,212.27 47,878.48 52,406.27 YoY Growth rate (%) -4.98 4.65 13.42 9.46 India's Imports from US 21,814.60 21,781.39 22,307.44 26,611.03 35,549.48 YoY Growth rate (%) -0.15 2.42 19.29 33.59 India-US bilateral trade 64,263.26 62,117.39 64,519.71 74,489.51 87,955.76 YoY Growth rate (%) -3.34 3.87 15.45 18.08 The bilateral trade between India and USA is gaining momentum over the years. USA FDI in India has increased in recent years but it still remains small compared to USA's total outward FDI (in USD Millions) (in USD Billions) (in USD Millions) Year Goods Trade Agricultural Trade Manufacturing Trade Services Trade 2014 66.9 4.2 61.4 37.8 2015 66.2 3.9 60.5 43.2 2016 67.7 3.4 61.8 46.7 2017 74.2 4.2 65.6 51.8 2018 87.9 4.2 74.8 54.8 Year US FDI in India 2014 33,241 2015 35,361 2016 38,634 2017 44,458 2018 45,984 India and America have had strong business relations over the many years and several American companies are fulfilling the indispensable needs of the Indian market. From searching online through Google to drinking Coca Cola, or using the latest I-phones by Apple, the Indian consumer is, by and large, a dedicated follower of American companies. American companies are preparing to set up an alternative to China by investing in India. Some renowned American companies are Amazon, Citibank, Coca-Cola, Ford India, Google, American Express, Pepsico, Hewlett Packard, IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Adobe Systems Incorporated, Apple Inc., Microsoft Corporation, Cognizant, Oracle.
  • 14. Google is a leading technology company with a presence across 50 countries. It set up office in India in 2003 with operations across Delhi, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Bangalore, and employee strength of over 6500. While the Bangalore unit houses engineers working on products, Gurgaon and Hyderabad are where the online advertisement-related operations happen. Leading technology company with 11,500 stores under 63 banners in 28 countries and e-commerce websites in 11 countries. It came to India in 1990 with offices in 9 cities. Hyderabad is the main campus housing R&D, IT and global services. Apple Inc designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication, personal computers, and portable digital music players for stakeholders worldwide. Apple opened its first Development Center in India in Hyderabad in May 2016 and has set up iPhone SE assembling operations in Bangalore through its Taiwanese supplier Wistron Infocomm. Ford has manufacturing facilities in Chennai and Sanand with more than 376 sales and service outlets in 209 cities across India. As part of its strategy to Make in India for India and the World, it continues to strengthen India as a Center of Excellence for small cars and low displacement engines and has embarked on an accelerated export strategy and presently, exports to over 40 markets around the world. Exxon has offices in Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR. ExxonMobil’s downstream business engages in the distribution, sales and marketing of Mobil - branded lubricant and upstream business provides consulting and LNG market develop- ment support services for other upstream affiliates. One of the oldest MNCs in India with presence across sectors including IT, finance, energy and healthcare with strong capabilities in engineering, manufacturing, project management and supply of products and solutions for power generation and transmission infrastructure requirements. GE has two BSE listed companies – GE Power India Limited and GE T&D India Limited. PepsiCo, a multinational food, snack and beverage corporation headquartered in New York entered India in 1989. It has grown into one of the largest MNC, F&B businesses with 62 plants in India. They have 8 brands in India with estimated INR 1000 cr in annual sales. One of the world’s oldest financial institutions, JP Morgan was built on the foundation of more than 1200 predecessor institutions. It has Global Service Centers in Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad, and provides middle- and back- office support for every line of business at JP Morgan Chase. It launched commercial banking in India in 2007. A multinational medical devices, pharmaceutical and consumer packaged goods manufacturing company, Johnson & Johnson has been present in the country for 70 years with an employment of more than 3,500 people and is organized into 3 business segments: Consumer Healthcare, Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals. Citigroup is a multinational financial services corporation headquartered in New York. It is present in India through its subsidiary Citibank India. The company operates 35 full-service branches in 19 cities and over 500 ATMs in India, and employs about 12,500 people.
  • 15. IMPACT OF COVID-19 As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) rips through America’s biggest cities, its effect is being felt far beyond the over 140,000 Americans who are confirmed infected. The quarantines and lockdowns that are needed to fight the virus’s spread are freezing the economy, too, with unprecedented force and speed. The stock market has sunk a quarter from its peak last month, wiping out three years of gains. Last week, mean- while, brought news that a record 3.28 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits, the highest number ever recorded. The US and Eurozone’s economies could take until 2023 to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis, if the public health response , including social distancing and lockdown measures is successful, to curb the spread, according to a new report from consultancy McKinsey & Company. The government in April reached out to more than 1,000 companies in the US and through overseas missions to offer incentives for manufacturers seeking to move out of China, according to Indian officials. India is prioritizing medical equipment suppliers, food processing units, textiles, leather and auto part makers among more than 550 products covered in the discussions. Trump’s move to blame China for its handling of the Covid-19 outbreak, which has killed more than a quarter-million people worldwide, is expected to worsen global trade ties as companies and governments move resources out of the world’s second-largest economy to diversify supply chains. America is one of the few countries with which India has a trade surplus. On the other hand, India has a huge trade deficit with China. 2020 GDP growth % Change Time to Return to Pre-Crisis China -3.9% -2.7% Q2 - 2021 Q1 - 2023 Q3 - 2023 Q3 - 2022 -2.2% -9.7% -4.7% -3.9% -12.2% 6.2% USA Eurozone World Real GDP drop 2019 Q4 – 20202 Q2 % change
  • 16. The global decline in commodity prices—particularly oil prices—will likely reduce investment spending in the United States. Mining—mainly oil and gas extraction — accounted for 5 percent of private investment spending in 2018 (the last year available). The oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia will probably drive investment in this sector down substantially, reducing demand for manufactured goods such as pipes and machinery. In 2015–16, a similar decline in oil prices drove the entire manufacturing sector into decline. The impact now on an already weak US manufacturing sector is likely to be significant. The sectors which can witness the shock majorly includes – Consumption makes up 70% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but consumption has slumped as businesses close and as households hold off on major purchases as they worry about their finances and their jobs. Investment makes up 20% of GDP, but businesses are putting off investment as they wait for clarity on the full cost of COVID-19. Currently, United Nations projects that foreign direct investment flows could fall between 5 and 15 percent to their lowest levels since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. As recently, many of the countries are going to ban the global exports of the components to the other country. Over-dependence on one country is hurting the global economy and countries are now on a lookout for alternative production hubs. For foreign investors looking for alternative investment locations, that leaves very few countries that have strong governments also capable of replacing China as an important source of cheap, skilled labour. Arguably, India and Indonesia tops the list of candidates. They are large countries located near China. Moreover, India has been unusually effective in dealing with the Covid-19 crisis so far. The void created by disruption in global supplies can be filled by India, and it is a great opportunity for India to recover its economy so India will try to focus on these categories to increase their production. TRADE & SECTORAL IMPACT Consumer Spending growth 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real consumer spending 3.0 3.7 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.6 -4.7 1.9 Real consumer spending- durable goods 7.2 7.5 6.1 6.9 6.3 4.7 -21.0 -3.8 Real consumer spending- non durable goods 2.6 3.4 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.3 -2.7 3.5
  • 17. OPPORTUNITY AREAS “US has significant investment in China. Prime Minister and Chief Minister want to use the opportunity where industries are moving out of China and see how they can be brought to India, especially to UP. Uttar Pradesh cabinet minister Sidharth Nath Singh said, referring to his home state. Representatives of these companies showed interest in the fields of agriculture, electronics, medicine, scientific instrumentation, logistics, defence, aviation and food procession, among others. With a stable government in the state, coupled with creation of a robust support infrastructure in terms of roads, water supply, irrigation capacity and 24×7 power supply, UP is among the frontrunners on the growth trajectory among large states of the nation,” Singh said. India expects to win over US companies involved in healthcare products and devices and is in talks with Medtronic Plc and Abbott Laboratories on relocating their units to the country. Representatives of several US-based companies have also been advised to propose to the Indian Government to offer incentives that would facilitate proliferation of US business in India, thus creating a ready environment for more business to come to the country. An Indian official was recently quoted as saying that as many as 100 companies want to leave China because of the coronavirus pandemic and relocate to India.
  • 18. Companies have started viewing India as more economical in terms of securing land and affordable skilled labor than if they moved back to the US or Japan, even if overall costs are still higher than China. They have also been offered an assurance by the officials that India will consider specific requests on changes to labor laws, which have proved a major stumbling block for companies, and that the government is considering a request from e-commerce companies to postpone a tax on digital transactions introduced in this year’s budget. Mastercard was also keen on exploring opportunities in rural areas of Uttar Pradesh by providing the facility of digital payment to kirana stores. UPS and Fredix evinced interest to invest in Jewar airport by developing logistic centres. Boston Scientific has plans to set up a medical equipment plan. Further, some states including Maharashtra have ensured that supply chains for foreign manufacturers remained functional through India’s national virus lockdown. Others like Tamil Nadu in the south and Uttar Pradesh in the north have offered concessions for those planning to move. Mukesh Aghi, president of the US -India Strategic and Partnership Forum, a Washington-based group that advocates for policies that further business ties between the countries has clearly stated that there’s abundant capital in the US that’s looking for geographies outside, and that India can be seen as responding to these opportunities. Simultaneously, companies have begun realizing that while large supply chains in China may have been economical, there is no point in keeping all your eggs in one basket. According to Ajay Sahai, Director General and Chief Executive Officer of the Federation of Indian Exporters – ‘India is a bigger market than Vietnam or Cambodia so it should be a bigger draw for investors looking to move operations out of China. But apart from ensuring land, water and sewerage, the most important change India needs to make is to give a clear guarantee that the government will not introduce retrospective tax amendments.’
  • 19. It has been observed that in 2017, India exported USD 292B, making it the 17th largest exporter in the world. During the last five years the exports of India have increased at an annualized rate of 1.2%, from USD 273B in 2012 to USD 292B in 2017. The most recent exports are led by Refined Petroleum which represent 10.3% of the total exports of India, followed by Diamonds, which account for 9.1%. Specific to US, India, at present, stands as a significant exporter in the following product categories, and therefore, can envisage a bright chance towards increasing its trade value with the country by expanding its share of these product categories, post the pandemic. Also, with its ‘Make in India’ initiative, the Government of India is focusing majorly on machinery and ancillary parts. At present, India exports machinery and equipment worth USD 35.8 billion and US majorly depends on China for - office machines, computers, vehicle parts, models & stuffed animals, and broadcasting equipment. Considering the rising tensions between China & US due to the pandemic, it is expected that there will be a shift in paradigm, allowing India to open more export avenues in these sectors, along with others such as e-commerce and healthcare services. Further, India has a good reserve of commodities such as Rice & Cereals, Tea, Mica & Other ores, Meat & Poultry and Engineering Goods. Hence, the country can widen its export of these commodities by globally exploring more countries as well as regions of interest. PRODUCTS EXPORT TO US IN % Diamonds 19 Packaged Medicaments 14 Refined Petroleum 5.4 Crustaceans 4.6 House Linens 2.7 Vehicle Parts 2.4 Vegetable saps 1.2 Other Furniture 0.87 Leather Footwear 0.85