1. UNION BUDGET 2013-14
-AN ANALYSIS
Manuel M.Mathew
III DC Economics
ST.Thomas College Pala.
2. BACKDROP OF THE BUDGET
SLOWING GLOBAL ECONOMY
INCREASING FISCAL DEFICIT & CAD
DARK SHADOW OF INFLATION
TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICY
QUEST FOR SUSTAINABLE
AND INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT
IMPENDING GENERAL ELECTION
3. FOCUS AREAS
Additional Resource Mobilization
Expenditure Compression
Measures to Promote Socio-economic
Growth
Relief and Welfare Measures
Widening of Tax Base and Anti Tax
Avoidance Measures
Rationalization Measures
Fiscal Consolidation
5. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH………
Excessive dependence on oil
Coal and gold imports
Slowdown in exports
MEASURES TO CONTAIN CAD……..
FII
FDI
ECB
10. TAX PROPOSALS
SUR CHRGE IN INCOME TAX
Particulars Existing Proposed
Individual /HUF/ Firm/ Co-op NA 10% If TI > 1 Cr.
Soc./ Local Auth.
Domestic Company 5% 10% If TI > 10 Cr
5% If TI > 1Cr
Other than Domestic Co. 2% 5% If TI > 10 Cr
2% If TI > 1Cr
Non-Resident Person NA 10% if TI > 1Cr
Rebate of Rs. 2000 for individuals having total
income up to Rs 5 lakh
11. SOME APPREHENTIONS…..
Is food security allocation adequate??
Is Disinvestment target of 55814
achievable??
Foreign funded Infrastructural Development
Neglected Higher Education
12. KEY RISKS TO INDIA'S MACRO STORY
US policy: sequestration
Euro-zone issues
• Realization of Fiscal Union
• support of the ECB
Global oil prices
• the correlation with Current Account Deficit (CAD) remains high.
• Geo-political tensions can push oil prices higher.
13. Domestic issues
• Politics outweighs economics; General elections
in 2014 can create uncertainty
• Reform progress to address India’s triple deficits
(Fiscal, current account, governance)
• Key constraints for infrastructure build-out: land,
coal and declining domestic financial savings rate
• Rising CAD and high gold imports weighing on
external finances
14. WHAT THE BUDGET MISS……
An amnesty scheme allowing disclosure of
illegal money…..of course with a penalty…..
EXPERIENCE OF 1996
Scope of injecting Rs.75000 crores into the
economy and to survive fiscally.
15. TO SUM UP…..
FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE
FORWARD LOOKING
REASONABLE AND REALISTIC