SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 17
Baixar para ler offline
Impact of Climate Change
on Water and Food in Pakistan
            M. Mohsin Iqbal and M. Arif Goheer
  Global change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad

        PSSP (Pakistan Strategy Support Program)
         1st Annual Conference on ‘Productivity ,
     Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Pakistan’
              Islamabad, 13-14 December 2012
Most Serious Climate Change
      Concerns of Pakistan

The Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC)* has
  identified the following major concerns:
∗      Water Security
∗      Food Security
∗      Energy Security
∗     Vulnerability of Coastal areas
  *Set up by Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan in Oct
  2008.The Final Report of TFCC was published on Feb 2010.
Fresh Water Resources of Pakistan

∗ River inflows from the snow and glacier melt from
  Himalayan Region : (97-172 million acre feet, maf)

∗ Rainfall: 180 maf
       Monsoon : July to September (80% of total)
       Winter rains: December to January (20% of total)

∗ Groundwater: 50 maf


                                      Source: TFCC, 2010
Implications of Climate Change on Indus
              River Flows

 ∗ Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the
   next 50 years causing increase of Indus River
   flows; then the glacier reservoirs will be empty,
   resulting in decrease of flows up to 30% to 40%
   over the subsequent 50 years (World Bank, 2006).

 ∗ Simulations conducted by GCISC show that with
   the rise in temperature and recession of glaciers,
   not only the flows of Indus River System will be
   reduced but the pattern of its seasonal flows will
   also be changed considerably.
Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows
                                         Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
                                          ∆ Temp: +3°C, ∆ Glacier Area: - 50%

                        Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
                     7000
                     6000
Discharge (Cumecs)




                     5000
                     4000
                     3000
                     2000

                     1000
                       0
                                                       May
                                          Mar




                                                                                               Nov
                            Jan




                                                              Jun




                                                                           Aug
                                                                    Jul
                                                 Apr
                                   Feb




                                                                                   Sep

                                                                                         Oct




                                                                                                     Dec
                                  Base Runoff                                    CCS Runoff
                                  Base Glacier melt                              CCS Glacier melt

Main Results:                      1. Annual flows reduced5by 15%                               Source:
                                   2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed            GCISC, 2009
Annual Flows of Western Rivers in Pakistan




                  Source: Indus River System Authority, 2010
Total Water Storage Capacity of Pakistan
     Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela Dams)


 Original             : 18.4 MAF*     (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)

 Year 2001            : 14.1 MAF      (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)

 Present (2012)       : 14.2 MAF      (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)


        *MAF: Million Acre Feet



                             Source: WAPDA, 2011
                             (http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-index.html)
                                                                            7
Water Demand/ Consumption

                  Pakistan’s Water Scenario for 2025
                Year                 2004                   2025


 Availability                      104 MAF                104 MAF


 Requirement                        115 MAF               135 MAF
 (including drinking water)

 Overall Shortfall                  11 MAF                 31 MAF



Source: Ten Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-11, Planning Commission
Major Water Using Sectors in Pakistan

      Sr.   Sectors                                        Water usage (%)
      No.
                                                    2000*              2010**

      1     Agricultural                              96                 69


      2     Industrial                                 2                 23


      3     Municipal                                  2                     8


 * Bridges, Geoff; Asian Development Bank (2007). Asian Water Development Outlook 2007.
   Country Paper Pakistan
** Ministry of Environment ( Cited in Economic Survey of Pakistan , 2010)
Agriculture Systems of Pakistan
 Total land area: 79.61 mha
 Cultivated area: 22.05 mha (28% of total)
 Irrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated)
 Rainfed area : 3.67 mha (16% of cultivated)

∗ Pakistan’s agriculture system is predominantly irrigated with sizeable
  rainfed area
∗ Irrigated agriculture provides 90% of Pakistan's food requirements, 2o%
  of its GDP and employment to 60% of the population.
∗ Irrigated areas are vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier
  melt in the wake of climate change
∗ Semi-arid and Arid areas are vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity
  and frequency of rainfalls.
Impacts of Climate Change on Crops

∗   Shortening of Growing Season Length (due to high
    temperature)
∗   Loss in crop yields
∗   Susceptibility of reproductive growth stages to heat waves
∗   Changes in river flows (less water available at critical sensitive
    growth stages)
∗   Increased evapotranspiration
∗   Increased land degradation (Waterlogging, Soil Salinization,
    Wind and water Erosion)
Future Food Demand by 2025
                                                                        000 tonnes

Sr.      Food Item                      Present (2010)         Projected (2025)*
No.
1        Food grains                            25,824                 32,092
2        Edible Oil                             2,256                  2,803
3        Meat                                   2,935                  3,647
4        Milk                                   15,900                 19,758
5        Fruits                                 8,868                  11,020
6        Vegetables                             4,035                  5,014


    *Estimates are based on population increase only; changes in dietary habits
    were not considered.
Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of
                                 Pakistan under A2 Scenarios
                      5000


                      4500
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)




                      4000


                      3500


                      3000


                      2500
                               Base               2020           2050                 2080

                                 Northern Mountainous Region   Northern Sub mountainous
                                 Southern Semi-arid Plains     Southern Arid Plains

                                                                             Source: GCISC, 2009
Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of
                           Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios
                      4400
                      4200                                          A2 Scenario
 Rice yield (kg/ha)




                      4000
                      3800
                                                                     B2 Scenario
                      3600
                      3400
                      3200
                      3000
                         1990       2025          2055   2085
                                           Year


Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios
                                                                Source: GCISC, 2009
Simulated Crop Water Requirements
due to Climate Change (Increasing Temperature)

∗ Rice-Wheat System
 Net Irrigation Requirements (NIR) are likely to increase by 3% for
 rise in temperature of 0.90C (upto 2020) and 6% for 1.80C (upto
 2050).

∗ Maize-Wheat system
 NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.80C rise in
 temperature.

∗ Cotton-Wheat System
 NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.8 rise in temperature.


                                 15             Source: Shahid et. Al., 2011
Conclusions
Challenges to WATER
  Variability in River Flows and Flow Patterns, due to climate change driven melting of
  HKH glaciers.
∗ Decreasing per capita availability of water and increasing demand by different
  sectors
∗ Inadequate water storage capacity coupled with loss in existing storage capacity with
  time
∗ Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events


Challenges to FOOD
∗ Crop yields decreasing due to increasing temperature, except in the northern
  mountainous areas
∗ Both irrigated and rainfed areas are vulnerable to climate change and extreme events
∗ Food demand increasing due to change in food habits and rising incomes
∗ Crop water requirements increasing due to increased crop evapotranspiration
6 2 mohsin iqbal - climate change impacts 21 dec 12 updated

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Climate change; its effects on pakistan
Climate change; its effects on pakistanClimate change; its effects on pakistan
Climate change; its effects on pakistanShahid Khan
 
35 .wwf profileand climatechange A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan
35 .wwf profileand climatechange   A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan 35 .wwf profileand climatechange   A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan
35 .wwf profileand climatechange A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan Mr.Allah Dad Khan
 
Lecture 9 impacts of climate change
Lecture 9   impacts of climate changeLecture 9   impacts of climate change
Lecture 9 impacts of climate changepolylsgiedx
 
Melting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategies
Melting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategiesMelting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategies
Melting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategiesMUHAMMAD HUSSAIN
 
Presentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Economy
Presentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the EconomyPresentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Economy
Presentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the EconomyBosco Hitimana
 
Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors of the Cari...
Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors  of the Cari...Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors  of the Cari...
Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors of the Cari...FAO
 
Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...
Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...
Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...India Water Portal
 
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEAnilKoirala
 
Climate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam
Climate change impacts on agriculture in VietnamClimate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam
Climate change impacts on agriculture in VietnamTingju Zhu
 
2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alam
2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alam2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alam
2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alamChan Mehboob
 
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.williamson20032001
 
The economic consequences of climate change in tanzania
The economic consequences of climate change in tanzaniaThe economic consequences of climate change in tanzania
The economic consequences of climate change in tanzaniaDar es Salaam, Tanzania
 
Climate change and its impacts on economy
Climate change and its impacts on economyClimate change and its impacts on economy
Climate change and its impacts on economyNawal Cheema
 
Global warming and its long term implication on India
Global warming and its long term implication on IndiaGlobal warming and its long term implication on India
Global warming and its long term implication on IndiaSwati Singh
 
Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and CyclonesBangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones2020resilience
 
Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture
Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal AgricultureImpacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture
Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal AgricultureLPE Learning Center
 
Understanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia Context
Understanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia ContextUnderstanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia Context
Understanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia ContextNAP Global Network
 
Climate Change: Implications for Employment
Climate Change: Implications for EmploymentClimate Change: Implications for Employment
Climate Change: Implications for EmploymentECFoundation
 

Mais procurados (20)

Climate change; its effects on pakistan
Climate change; its effects on pakistanClimate change; its effects on pakistan
Climate change; its effects on pakistan
 
Climate change science, knowledge and impacts on water resources in South Asia
Climate change science, knowledge and impacts on water resources in South AsiaClimate change science, knowledge and impacts on water resources in South Asia
Climate change science, knowledge and impacts on water resources in South Asia
 
35 .wwf profileand climatechange A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan
35 .wwf profileand climatechange   A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan 35 .wwf profileand climatechange   A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan
35 .wwf profileand climatechange A Presentation By Mr Allah Dad Khan
 
Lecture 9 impacts of climate change
Lecture 9   impacts of climate changeLecture 9   impacts of climate change
Lecture 9 impacts of climate change
 
Melting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategies
Melting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategiesMelting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategies
Melting of himalayan glaciers, causes, factors and strategies
 
Presentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Economy
Presentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the EconomyPresentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Economy
Presentation: Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Economy
 
Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors of the Cari...
Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors  of the Cari...Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors  of the Cari...
Impacts of Climate Change on the Economic and Livelihood Sectors of the Cari...
 
Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...
Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...
Impact of climate change on glaciers_Dr. S.S.Randhawa,State Centre on Climate...
 
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 
Climate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam
Climate change impacts on agriculture in VietnamClimate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam
Climate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam
 
2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alam
2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alam2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alam
2 9 alam_cliamate_change_touseef_alam
 
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY; THE CASE OF GHANA. DISCUSS.
 
The economic consequences of climate change in tanzania
The economic consequences of climate change in tanzaniaThe economic consequences of climate change in tanzania
The economic consequences of climate change in tanzania
 
Climate change and its impacts on economy
Climate change and its impacts on economyClimate change and its impacts on economy
Climate change and its impacts on economy
 
Global warming and its long term implication on India
Global warming and its long term implication on IndiaGlobal warming and its long term implication on India
Global warming and its long term implication on India
 
Climate change lusip
Climate change lusipClimate change lusip
Climate change lusip
 
Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and CyclonesBangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones
 
Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture
Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal AgricultureImpacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture
Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture
 
Understanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia Context
Understanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia ContextUnderstanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia Context
Understanding Climate Change Adaptation in the Saint Lucia Context
 
Climate Change: Implications for Employment
Climate Change: Implications for EmploymentClimate Change: Implications for Employment
Climate Change: Implications for Employment
 

Semelhante a 6 2 mohsin iqbal - climate change impacts 21 dec 12 updated

Water resources and biofuels water quality april 2012
Water resources and biofuels water quality   april 2012Water resources and biofuels water quality   april 2012
Water resources and biofuels water quality april 2012Sharon Lezberg
 
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...IAEME Publication
 
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...IAEME Publication
 
David molden sikkim 2
David molden  sikkim 2David molden  sikkim 2
David molden sikkim 2IMI_SMDS
 
Conservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectors
Conservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectorsConservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectors
Conservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectorsIWRS Society
 
CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003
CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003
CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003IWRS Society
 
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...CPWF Mekong
 
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptationClimate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptationGerald Nelson
 
Learning from the Drought - South Florida Water District
Learning from the Drought - South Florida Water DistrictLearning from the Drought - South Florida Water District
Learning from the Drought - South Florida Water DistrictFaizah68w
 
Nepal; Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management: A Case Study In Kathmandu
Nepal;  Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management:  A Case Study In KathmanduNepal;  Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management:  A Case Study In Kathmandu
Nepal; Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management: A Case Study In KathmanduV9X
 
Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...
Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...
Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...IRJET Journal
 
Climate Change & Water Resources of Pakistan
Climate Change & Water Resources of PakistanClimate Change & Water Resources of Pakistan
Climate Change & Water Resources of PakistanHara Bhara Pakistan
 

Semelhante a 6 2 mohsin iqbal - climate change impacts 21 dec 12 updated (20)

Water resources and biofuels water quality april 2012
Water resources and biofuels water quality   april 2012Water resources and biofuels water quality   april 2012
Water resources and biofuels water quality april 2012
 
What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security?
What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security?What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security?
What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security?
 
Ganges Basin Development Project and Role of Change and Coordination Project
Ganges Basin Development Project and Role of Change and Coordination ProjectGanges Basin Development Project and Role of Change and Coordination Project
Ganges Basin Development Project and Role of Change and Coordination Project
 
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...
 
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar  gpr  techniques for ...
Assessing the applicability of ground penetrating radar gpr techniques for ...
 
David molden sikkim 2
David molden  sikkim 2David molden  sikkim 2
David molden sikkim 2
 
Conservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectors
Conservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectorsConservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectors
Conservation of water in agriculture and industrial sectors
 
CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003
CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003
CONSERVATION OF WATER IN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - 2003
 
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...
Understanding the Water Demand Implication of Socioeconomic Development Strat...
 
Agriculture and Water
Agriculture and WaterAgriculture and Water
Agriculture and Water
 
Water crisis?
Water crisis?Water crisis?
Water crisis?
 
Climate change and agriculture: impacts and costs of adaption
Climate change and agriculture: impacts and costs of adaptionClimate change and agriculture: impacts and costs of adaption
Climate change and agriculture: impacts and costs of adaption
 
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptationClimate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation
Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation
 
Learning from the Drought - South Florida Water District
Learning from the Drought - South Florida Water DistrictLearning from the Drought - South Florida Water District
Learning from the Drought - South Florida Water District
 
Climate Change and Ecosystem Assessment
Climate Change and Ecosystem AssessmentClimate Change and Ecosystem Assessment
Climate Change and Ecosystem Assessment
 
Nepal; Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management: A Case Study In Kathmandu
Nepal;  Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management:  A Case Study In KathmanduNepal;  Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management:  A Case Study In Kathmandu
Nepal; Eco Home For Sustainable Water Management: A Case Study In Kathmandu
 
Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...
Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...
Utilization of Existing Water Sources for Irrigation Purposes-Case Study of K...
 
003 NCWRM 2011 Taqash_Jordan
003 NCWRM 2011 Taqash_Jordan003 NCWRM 2011 Taqash_Jordan
003 NCWRM 2011 Taqash_Jordan
 
Climate Change & Water Resources of Pakistan
Climate Change & Water Resources of PakistanClimate Change & Water Resources of Pakistan
Climate Change & Water Resources of Pakistan
 
Lake Erie Phosphorus Task Force Results
Lake Erie Phosphorus Task Force ResultsLake Erie Phosphorus Task Force Results
Lake Erie Phosphorus Task Force Results
 

Mais de International Food Policy Research Institute

What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...
What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...
What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...International Food Policy Research Institute
 

Mais de International Food Policy Research Institute (20)

Food consumption patterns and nutritional status in pakistan
Food consumption patterns and nutritional status in pakistan Food consumption patterns and nutritional status in pakistan
Food consumption patterns and nutritional status in pakistan
 
Addressing the Needs of the Internally Displaced Persons in Pakistan by Dr S...
Addressing the Needs of the Internally Displaced Persons in Pakistan by Dr S...Addressing the Needs of the Internally Displaced Persons in Pakistan by Dr S...
Addressing the Needs of the Internally Displaced Persons in Pakistan by Dr S...
 
LESSONS FROM REHABILITATION OF DISPLACED PERSONS by Dr. Anis A. Dani
LESSONS FROM REHABILITATION OF DISPLACED PERSONS by Dr. Anis A. DaniLESSONS FROM REHABILITATION OF DISPLACED PERSONS by Dr. Anis A. Dani
LESSONS FROM REHABILITATION OF DISPLACED PERSONS by Dr. Anis A. Dani
 
Floods and Natural Disasters in South Asia: Implications for Food Security by...
Floods and Natural Disasters in South Asia: Implications for Food Security by...Floods and Natural Disasters in South Asia: Implications for Food Security by...
Floods and Natural Disasters in South Asia: Implications for Food Security by...
 
Pakistan Strategy Support Program Overview by Dr. Stephen Davies, Dr. Sohail ...
Pakistan Strategy Support Program Overview by Dr. Stephen Davies, Dr. Sohail ...Pakistan Strategy Support Program Overview by Dr. Stephen Davies, Dr. Sohail ...
Pakistan Strategy Support Program Overview by Dr. Stephen Davies, Dr. Sohail ...
 
Microsimulating FGT Indicators Based on Pakistan HIES 2010-11 by Dr. Dario De...
Microsimulating FGT Indicators Based on Pakistan HIES 2010-11 by Dr. Dario De...Microsimulating FGT Indicators Based on Pakistan HIES 2010-11 by Dr. Dario De...
Microsimulating FGT Indicators Based on Pakistan HIES 2010-11 by Dr. Dario De...
 
CGE Modeling and Microsimulations by Dr. Dario Debowicz
CGE Modeling and Microsimulations by Dr. Dario DebowiczCGE Modeling and Microsimulations by Dr. Dario Debowicz
CGE Modeling and Microsimulations by Dr. Dario Debowicz
 
Poverty and Inequality Measurement By Dr. Dario Debowicz
Poverty and Inequality Measurement By Dr. Dario DebowiczPoverty and Inequality Measurement By Dr. Dario Debowicz
Poverty and Inequality Measurement By Dr. Dario Debowicz
 
Batkhela (Malakand) Bazar: A Catalyst for Socio-Economic and Political Change...
Batkhela (Malakand) Bazar: A Catalyst for Socio-Economic and Political Change...Batkhela (Malakand) Bazar: A Catalyst for Socio-Economic and Political Change...
Batkhela (Malakand) Bazar: A Catalyst for Socio-Economic and Political Change...
 
DNA Barcoding and Biochemical Profiling of Medicinal Plants of Northern and D...
DNA Barcoding and Biochemical Profiling of Medicinal Plants of Northern and D...DNA Barcoding and Biochemical Profiling of Medicinal Plants of Northern and D...
DNA Barcoding and Biochemical Profiling of Medicinal Plants of Northern and D...
 
Enhancing Water Productivity by Using Feasible Efficient Irrigation Technique...
Enhancing Water Productivity by Using Feasible Efficient Irrigation Technique...Enhancing Water Productivity by Using Feasible Efficient Irrigation Technique...
Enhancing Water Productivity by Using Feasible Efficient Irrigation Technique...
 
What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...
What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...
What Determines Farmers’ Response towards Adopting New Technology in KP? by D...
 
The Size and Nature of Informal Entrepreneurship in Pakistan and How to Tackl...
The Size and Nature of Informal Entrepreneurship in Pakistan and How to Tackl...The Size and Nature of Informal Entrepreneurship in Pakistan and How to Tackl...
The Size and Nature of Informal Entrepreneurship in Pakistan and How to Tackl...
 
Economic Growth and Protection of Life, Property and Contracts by Dr. Shabib ...
Economic Growth and Protection of Life, Property and Contracts by Dr. Shabib ...Economic Growth and Protection of Life, Property and Contracts by Dr. Shabib ...
Economic Growth and Protection of Life, Property and Contracts by Dr. Shabib ...
 
Integrating Rural Urban Linkages for Regional Development in the Province of ...
Integrating Rural Urban Linkages for Regional Development in the Province of ...Integrating Rural Urban Linkages for Regional Development in the Province of ...
Integrating Rural Urban Linkages for Regional Development in the Province of ...
 
Tax Policy Research to Support a New Framework for Sustained Economic Growth ...
Tax Policy Research to Support a New Framework for Sustained Economic Growth ...Tax Policy Research to Support a New Framework for Sustained Economic Growth ...
Tax Policy Research to Support a New Framework for Sustained Economic Growth ...
 
Economic Analysis of Challenges in Development of High-Value Agriculture: The...
Economic Analysis of Challenges in Development of High-Value Agriculture: The...Economic Analysis of Challenges in Development of High-Value Agriculture: The...
Economic Analysis of Challenges in Development of High-Value Agriculture: The...
 
Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of Antibiotics, Heavy Metals, Mycotoxin...
Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of Antibiotics, Heavy Metals, Mycotoxin...Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of Antibiotics, Heavy Metals, Mycotoxin...
Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses of Antibiotics, Heavy Metals, Mycotoxin...
 
Maximizing Farm Income and Other Livelihood Opportunities through Introductio...
Maximizing Farm Income and Other Livelihood Opportunities through Introductio...Maximizing Farm Income and Other Livelihood Opportunities through Introductio...
Maximizing Farm Income and Other Livelihood Opportunities through Introductio...
 
Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan's Urban Challenges by D...
Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan's Urban Challenges by D...Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan's Urban Challenges by D...
Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan's Urban Challenges by D...
 

6 2 mohsin iqbal - climate change impacts 21 dec 12 updated

  • 1. Impact of Climate Change on Water and Food in Pakistan M. Mohsin Iqbal and M. Arif Goheer Global change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad PSSP (Pakistan Strategy Support Program) 1st Annual Conference on ‘Productivity , Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Pakistan’ Islamabad, 13-14 December 2012
  • 2. Most Serious Climate Change Concerns of Pakistan The Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC)* has identified the following major concerns: ∗ Water Security ∗ Food Security ∗ Energy Security ∗ Vulnerability of Coastal areas *Set up by Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan in Oct 2008.The Final Report of TFCC was published on Feb 2010.
  • 3. Fresh Water Resources of Pakistan ∗ River inflows from the snow and glacier melt from Himalayan Region : (97-172 million acre feet, maf) ∗ Rainfall: 180 maf Monsoon : July to September (80% of total) Winter rains: December to January (20% of total) ∗ Groundwater: 50 maf Source: TFCC, 2010
  • 4. Implications of Climate Change on Indus River Flows ∗ Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows; then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent 50 years (World Bank, 2006). ∗ Simulations conducted by GCISC show that with the rise in temperature and recession of glaciers, not only the flows of Indus River System will be reduced but the pattern of its seasonal flows will also be changed considerably.
  • 5. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): ∆ Temp: +3°C, ∆ Glacier Area: - 50% Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004 7000 6000 Discharge (Cumecs) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 May Mar Nov Jan Jun Aug Jul Apr Feb Sep Oct Dec Base Runoff CCS Runoff Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced5by 15% Source: 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed GCISC, 2009
  • 6. Annual Flows of Western Rivers in Pakistan Source: Indus River System Authority, 2010
  • 7. Total Water Storage Capacity of Pakistan Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela Dams)  Original : 18.4 MAF* (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)  Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)  Present (2012) : 14.2 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows) *MAF: Million Acre Feet Source: WAPDA, 2011 (http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-index.html) 7
  • 8. Water Demand/ Consumption Pakistan’s Water Scenario for 2025 Year 2004 2025 Availability 104 MAF 104 MAF Requirement 115 MAF 135 MAF (including drinking water) Overall Shortfall 11 MAF 31 MAF Source: Ten Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-11, Planning Commission
  • 9. Major Water Using Sectors in Pakistan Sr. Sectors Water usage (%) No. 2000* 2010** 1 Agricultural 96 69 2 Industrial 2 23 3 Municipal 2 8 * Bridges, Geoff; Asian Development Bank (2007). Asian Water Development Outlook 2007. Country Paper Pakistan ** Ministry of Environment ( Cited in Economic Survey of Pakistan , 2010)
  • 10. Agriculture Systems of Pakistan  Total land area: 79.61 mha  Cultivated area: 22.05 mha (28% of total)  Irrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated)  Rainfed area : 3.67 mha (16% of cultivated) ∗ Pakistan’s agriculture system is predominantly irrigated with sizeable rainfed area ∗ Irrigated agriculture provides 90% of Pakistan's food requirements, 2o% of its GDP and employment to 60% of the population. ∗ Irrigated areas are vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change ∗ Semi-arid and Arid areas are vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.
  • 11. Impacts of Climate Change on Crops ∗ Shortening of Growing Season Length (due to high temperature) ∗ Loss in crop yields ∗ Susceptibility of reproductive growth stages to heat waves ∗ Changes in river flows (less water available at critical sensitive growth stages) ∗ Increased evapotranspiration ∗ Increased land degradation (Waterlogging, Soil Salinization, Wind and water Erosion)
  • 12. Future Food Demand by 2025 000 tonnes Sr. Food Item Present (2010) Projected (2025)* No. 1 Food grains 25,824 32,092 2 Edible Oil 2,256 2,803 3 Meat 2,935 3,647 4 Milk 15,900 19,758 5 Fruits 8,868 11,020 6 Vegetables 4,035 5,014 *Estimates are based on population increase only; changes in dietary habits were not considered.
  • 13. Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios 5000 4500 Wheat Yield (kg/ha) 4000 3500 3000 2500 Base 2020 2050 2080 Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains Source: GCISC, 2009
  • 14. Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios 4400 4200 A2 Scenario Rice yield (kg/ha) 4000 3800 B2 Scenario 3600 3400 3200 3000 1990 2025 2055 2085 Year Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios Source: GCISC, 2009
  • 15. Simulated Crop Water Requirements due to Climate Change (Increasing Temperature) ∗ Rice-Wheat System Net Irrigation Requirements (NIR) are likely to increase by 3% for rise in temperature of 0.90C (upto 2020) and 6% for 1.80C (upto 2050). ∗ Maize-Wheat system NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.80C rise in temperature. ∗ Cotton-Wheat System NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.8 rise in temperature. 15 Source: Shahid et. Al., 2011
  • 16. Conclusions Challenges to WATER Variability in River Flows and Flow Patterns, due to climate change driven melting of HKH glaciers. ∗ Decreasing per capita availability of water and increasing demand by different sectors ∗ Inadequate water storage capacity coupled with loss in existing storage capacity with time ∗ Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events Challenges to FOOD ∗ Crop yields decreasing due to increasing temperature, except in the northern mountainous areas ∗ Both irrigated and rainfed areas are vulnerable to climate change and extreme events ∗ Food demand increasing due to change in food habits and rising incomes ∗ Crop water requirements increasing due to increased crop evapotranspiration