Gil Zilberfeld. Better Estimation and Planning. Ukraine Online PMDay Conference - http://online.pmday.org Part of Kyiv PMDay Conference - http://pmday.org Video at https://www.youtube.com/user/StartupLviv

1. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Better Estimation
and Planning

2. @gil_zilberfeld
Hello!
I AM GIL ZILBERFELD
TestinGil
www.gilzilberfeld.com
www.testingil.com
@gil_zilberfeld

3. @gil_zilberfeld
“Prediction is very
difficult, especially
about the future.” Niels Bohr,
Nobel Prize in Physics

4. @gil_zilberfeld
“It always takes longer than
you expect,
even when you take into
account
Hofstadter's Law”
Douglas Hofstadter
Professor of cognitive
science

5. @gil_zilberfeld

6. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Story Points

7. @gil_zilberfeld
I am not sure I
invented story
points,
but if I did, I’m
sorry now.
Ron Jeffries

8. @gil_zilberfeld
Story points
◉ Everybody knows the “algorithm”
◉ The business talks in dates
◉ We want to encourage ubiquitous language and
openness
◉ Just use time measurements

9. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Planning Poker

10. @gil_zilberfeld
https://www.amazon.com/Agile-Stationery-Estimation-Poker-players/dp/B01MDTJDST

11. @gil_zilberfeld
Planning Poker
◉ Fibonacci numbers
◉ Full story estimation
◉ Promote discussion through variation
◉ All the team and just the team
◉ No HIPPOs

12. @gil_zilberfeld

13. @gil_zilberfeld
Planning Poker
◉ Process that requires practice
◉ Make it quick or find another way
◉ Discuss the “why” behind variation

14. @gil_zilberfeld

15. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
Consensus is not that important

16. @gil_zilberfeld
Comparative estimations
◉ We’re optimistic and want to please
◉ We don’t remember what it took last time
◉ We don’t remember how it looked last time
◉ We don’t foresee what will happen
◉ Our estimates suck

17. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
What is a good estimate?

18. @gil_zilberfeld
The primary purpose of an
estimate is not to predict a
project’s outcome.
Steve McConnell, Software Estimation (2006)
It is to determine whether a
project’s targets are realistic
enough to allow the project to
be controlled to meet them.

19. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld
How confident are you with your estimates?

20. @gil_zilberfeld
Liz Keogh’s Complexity Scale
1. We all know how to do it
2. Someone on our team has done this before
3. Someone in our company has done this before
4. Someone has done this outside our organization
5. Nobody has done this before.
https://lizkeogh.com/2013/07/21/estimating-complexity/

21. @gil_zilberfeld

22. @gil_zilberfeld
Velocity is a measure
of the amount of work
a team can tackle
during a single sprint
https://www.scruminc.com/velocity/

23. @gil_zilberfeld

24. @gil_zilberfeld
But stories are not the same size!
◉ Make them the same size!
◉ If all stories / tasks are the same it’s easy to
count
◉ Count same-size stories over time, that is your
velocity
◉ Then estimation goes away!

25. @gil_zilberfeld
“When a measure
becomes a target, it
ceases to be a good
measure.”
Goodheart’s Law

26. @gil_zilberfeld

27. @gil_zilberfeld
Projection over estimation
◉ Projection is what we think our progress would
be, based on the recorded past.
◉ We can be more statistically “accurate”
◉ But it only works if people understand statistics

28. @gil_zilberfeld
Monte-Carlo simulation
◉ Based on small sample size, create projections in
different confidence levels
◉ The sample need relevance into the projected
future

29. @gil_zilberfeld
Demo: Monte Carlo Simulation
◉ Demo
◉ Troy Magennis’ tools
◉ You need relevant data
◉ You need people who understand probabilities

30. @gil_zilberfeld
“Done”
◉ You can have different “done”-s
◉ Have a common definition before you start
◉ Measure the important “done”.
◉ Stories, not tasks
◉ Demos

31. @gil_zilberfeld
User Story Mapping - Examples
https://realtimeboard.com/examples/user-story-map/

32. @gil_zilberfeld

33. @gil_zilberfeld
Lead time and Cycle time
https://www.minterapp.com/takt-time-vs-cycle-time-vs-lead-time/

34. @gil_zilberfeld
Cumulative Flow Diagram
https://kanbanize.com/kanban-resources/kanban-software/kanban-lead-cycle-time/

35. @gil_zilberfeld
Leading indicators examples
◉ Blockers
◉ Velocity
◉ Morale
◉ Closing rate
◉ Backlog ready
◉ Team structure
◉ Demos
◉ Cadence
◉ Historic lead and
cycle time

36. @gil_zilberfeld
Resources
◉ The Principles of Product Development Flow by
Don Reinertsen
◉ Cost of Delay
◉ The Story Mapping book by Jeff Patton
◉ The Personal Kanban book by Jim Benson
◉ Statistical Planning Tools

37. @gil_zilberfeld
Thanks!
ANY QUESTIONS?
TestinGil
@gil_zilberfeld
http://www.testingil.com/online-courses