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7-1
Lecture slides to accompany
Engineering Economy
7th
edition
Leland Blank
Anthony Tarquin
Chapter 7Chapter 7
Rate of ReturnRate of Return
One ProjectOne Project
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-2
LEARNINGLEARNING OUTCOMESOUTCOMES
1. Understand meaning of ROR
2. Calculate ROR for cash flow
series
3. Understand difficulties of ROR
4. Determine multiple ROR values
5. Calculate External ROR (EROR)
6. Calculate r and i for bonds© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-3
Interpretation of RORInterpretation of ROR
Rate paid on unrecovered balance of borrowed
money such that final payment brings balance to exactly
zero
with interest considered
ROR equation can be written in terms of PW, AW, or FW
Numerical value can range from -100% to infinity
Use trial and error solution by factor or spreadsheet
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
ROR Calculation and Project EvaluationROR Calculation and Project Evaluation
 To determine ROR, find the i* value in the relation
PW = 0 or AW = 0 or FW = 0
 Alternatively, a relation like the following finds i*
PWoutflow = PWinflow
 For evaluation, a project is economically viable if
i* ≥ MARR
7-4 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
Finding ROR by Spreadsheet FunctionFinding ROR by Spreadsheet Function
Using the RATE function
= RATE(n,A,P,F)
P = $-200,000 A = $-15,000
n = 12 F = $435,000
Function is
= RATE(12,-15000,-200000,450000)
Display is i* = 1.9%
Using the IRR function
= IRR(first_cell, last_cell)
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-5
= IRR(B2:B14)
7-6
ROR is the unique i* rate at which a PW, FW, or AW relation equals exactly 0
ROR Calculation Using PW, FW or AW RelationROR Calculation Using PW, FW or AW Relation
Since i* > MARR = 15%, the company should buy the machine
Example: An investment of $20,000 in new equipment will
generate income of $7000 per year for 3 years, at which time the
machine can be sold for an estimated $8000. If the company’s
MARR is 15% per year, should it buy the machine?
Solution:: The ROR equation, based on a PW relation, is:
Solve for i* by trial and error or spreadsheet: i* = 18.2% per year
0 = -20,000 + 7000(P/A,i*,3) + 8000(P/F,i*,3)
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-7
Incremental analysis necessary for multiple
alternative evaluations (discussed later)
Special Considerations for RORSpecial Considerations for ROR
May get multiple i* values (discussed later)
i* assumes reinvestment of positive cash flows
earn at i* rate (may be unrealistic)
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-8
Multiple ROR ValuesMultiple ROR Values
Multiple i* values may exist when there is more than one sign
change in net cash flow (CF) series.
Such CF series are called non-conventional
Two tests for multiple i* values:
Descarte’s rule of signs: total number of real i* values
is ≤ the number of sign changes in net cash flow series.
Norstrom’s criterion: if the cumulative cash flow starts off
negatively and has only one sign change, there is only one
positive root .
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-9 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
Plot of PW for CF Series with Multiple ROR Values
i* values at ~8%
and ~41%
7-10
Example: Multiple i* ValuesExample: Multiple i* Values
Solution:
Determine the maximum number of i* values for the cash flow shown below
Year Expense Income
0 -12,000 -
1 -5,000 + 3,000
2 -6,000 +9,000
3 -7,000 +15,000
4 -8,000 +16,000
5 -9,000 +8,000
Therefore, there is only one i* value ( i* = 8.7%)
Net cash flow
-12,000
-2,000
+3,000
+8,000
-1,000
+8,000
Cumulative CF
-12,000
-14,000
-11,000
-3,000
+5,000
+4,000
The cumulative cash flow begins
negatively with one sign change
The sign on the net cash flow changes
twice, indicating two possible i* values
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-11
Removing Multiple i* ValuesRemoving Multiple i* Values
Two approaches to determine External ROR (EROR)
• (1) Modified ROR (MIRR)
• (2) Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Two new interest rates to consider:
Investment rate ii – rate at which extra funds
are invested external to the project
Borrowing rate ib – rate at which funds are
borrowed from an external source to provide
funds to the project
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-12
Modified ROR Approach (MIRR)Modified ROR Approach (MIRR)
Four step Procedure:
Determine PW in year 0 of all negative CF at ib
Determine FW in year n of all positive CF at ii
Calculate EROR = i’ by FW = PW(F/P,i’,n)
If i’ ≥ MARR, project is economically justified
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-13
Example: EROR Using MIRR MethodExample: EROR Using MIRR Method
For the NCF shown below, find the EROR by the MIRR method if
MARR = 9%, ib = 8.5%, and ii = 12%
Year 0 1 2 3
NCF +2000 -500 -8100 +6800
Solution: PW0 = -500(P/F,8.5%,1) - 8100(P/F,8.5%,2)
= $-7342
FW3 = 2000(F/P,12%,3) + 6800
= $9610
PW0(F/P,i’,3) + FW3 = 0
-7342(1 + i’)3
+ 9610 = 0
i’ = 0.939 (9.39%)
Since i’ > MARR of 9%, project is justified
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-14
Return on Invested Capital ApproachReturn on Invested Capital Approach
Measure of how effectively project uses funds that remain internal to project
ROIC rate, i’’, is determined using net-investment procedure
Three step Procedure
(1) Develop series of FW relations for each year t using:
Ft = Ft-1(1 + k) + NCFt
where: k = ii if Ft-1 > 0 and k = i’’ if Ft-1 < 0
(2) Set future worth relation for last year n equal to 0 (i.e., Fn= 0); solve for i’’
(3) If i’’ ≥ MARR, project is justified; otherwise, reject© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
ROIC ExampleROIC Example
7-15
For the NCF shown below, find the EROR by the ROIC method if
MARR = 9% and ii = 12%
Year 0 1 2 3
NCF +2000 -500 -8100 +6800
Solution:
Year 0: F0 = $+2000 F0 > 0; invest in year 1 at ii = 12%
Year 1: F1 = 2000(1.12) - 500 = $+1740 F1 > 0; invest in year 2 at ii = 12%
Year 2: F2 = 1740(1.12) - 8100 = $-6151 F2 < 0; use i’’ for year 3
Year 3: F3 = -6151(1 + i’’) + 6800 Set F3 = 0 and solve for i’’
-6151(1 + i’’) + 6800 = 0
i’’= 10.55%
Since i’’ > MARR of 9%, project is justified
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
Important Points to RememberImportant Points to Remember
About the computation of an EROR value
 EROR values are dependent upon the
selected investment and/or borrowing rates
 Commonly, multiple i* rates, i’ from MIRR and
i’’ from ROIC have different values
About the method used to decide
 For a definitive economic decision, set the
MARR value and use the PW or AW method
to determine economic viability of the project
7-16 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-17
ROR of Bond InvestmentROR of Bond Investment
Bond is IOU with face value (V), coupon rate (b), no. of payment periods/year (c),
dividend (I), and maturity date (n). Amount paid for the bond is P.
I = Vb/c
General equation for i*: 0 = - P + I(P/A,i*,nxc) + V(P/F,i*,nxc)
Solution: (a) I = 10,000(0.06)/4 = $150 per quarter
ROR equation is: 0 = -8000 + 150(P/A,i*,20) + 10,000(P/F,i*,20)
By trial and error or spreadsheet: i* = 2.8% per quarter
(b) Nominal i* per year = 2.8(4) = 11.2% per year
Effective i* per year = (1 + 0.028)4
– 1 = 11.7% per year
A $10,000 bond with 6% interest payable quarterly is purchased for $8000.
If the bond matures in 5 years, what is the ROR (a) per quarter, (b) per year?
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
7-18
Summary of Important PointsSummary of Important Points
More than 1 sign change in NCF may cause multiple i* values
Descarte’s rule of signs and Norstrom’s criterion useful when
multiple i* values are suspected
ROR equations can be written in terms of PW, FW, or AW
and
usually require trial and error solution
i* assumes reinvestment of positive cash flows at i* rate
EROR can be calculated using MIRR or ROIC approach.
Assumptions about investment and borrowing rates is required.
General ROR equation for bonds is
0 = - P + I(P/A,i*,nxc) + V(P/F,i*,nxc)
© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved

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Chapter 7 ror analysis for a single alternative

  • 1. 7-1 Lecture slides to accompany Engineering Economy 7th edition Leland Blank Anthony Tarquin Chapter 7Chapter 7 Rate of ReturnRate of Return One ProjectOne Project © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 2. 7-2 LEARNINGLEARNING OUTCOMESOUTCOMES 1. Understand meaning of ROR 2. Calculate ROR for cash flow series 3. Understand difficulties of ROR 4. Determine multiple ROR values 5. Calculate External ROR (EROR) 6. Calculate r and i for bonds© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 3. 7-3 Interpretation of RORInterpretation of ROR Rate paid on unrecovered balance of borrowed money such that final payment brings balance to exactly zero with interest considered ROR equation can be written in terms of PW, AW, or FW Numerical value can range from -100% to infinity Use trial and error solution by factor or spreadsheet © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 4. ROR Calculation and Project EvaluationROR Calculation and Project Evaluation  To determine ROR, find the i* value in the relation PW = 0 or AW = 0 or FW = 0  Alternatively, a relation like the following finds i* PWoutflow = PWinflow  For evaluation, a project is economically viable if i* ≥ MARR 7-4 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 5. Finding ROR by Spreadsheet FunctionFinding ROR by Spreadsheet Function Using the RATE function = RATE(n,A,P,F) P = $-200,000 A = $-15,000 n = 12 F = $435,000 Function is = RATE(12,-15000,-200000,450000) Display is i* = 1.9% Using the IRR function = IRR(first_cell, last_cell) © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved 7-5 = IRR(B2:B14)
  • 6. 7-6 ROR is the unique i* rate at which a PW, FW, or AW relation equals exactly 0 ROR Calculation Using PW, FW or AW RelationROR Calculation Using PW, FW or AW Relation Since i* > MARR = 15%, the company should buy the machine Example: An investment of $20,000 in new equipment will generate income of $7000 per year for 3 years, at which time the machine can be sold for an estimated $8000. If the company’s MARR is 15% per year, should it buy the machine? Solution:: The ROR equation, based on a PW relation, is: Solve for i* by trial and error or spreadsheet: i* = 18.2% per year 0 = -20,000 + 7000(P/A,i*,3) + 8000(P/F,i*,3) © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 7. 7-7 Incremental analysis necessary for multiple alternative evaluations (discussed later) Special Considerations for RORSpecial Considerations for ROR May get multiple i* values (discussed later) i* assumes reinvestment of positive cash flows earn at i* rate (may be unrealistic) © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 8. 7-8 Multiple ROR ValuesMultiple ROR Values Multiple i* values may exist when there is more than one sign change in net cash flow (CF) series. Such CF series are called non-conventional Two tests for multiple i* values: Descarte’s rule of signs: total number of real i* values is ≤ the number of sign changes in net cash flow series. Norstrom’s criterion: if the cumulative cash flow starts off negatively and has only one sign change, there is only one positive root . © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 9. 7-9 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved Plot of PW for CF Series with Multiple ROR Values i* values at ~8% and ~41%
  • 10. 7-10 Example: Multiple i* ValuesExample: Multiple i* Values Solution: Determine the maximum number of i* values for the cash flow shown below Year Expense Income 0 -12,000 - 1 -5,000 + 3,000 2 -6,000 +9,000 3 -7,000 +15,000 4 -8,000 +16,000 5 -9,000 +8,000 Therefore, there is only one i* value ( i* = 8.7%) Net cash flow -12,000 -2,000 +3,000 +8,000 -1,000 +8,000 Cumulative CF -12,000 -14,000 -11,000 -3,000 +5,000 +4,000 The cumulative cash flow begins negatively with one sign change The sign on the net cash flow changes twice, indicating two possible i* values © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 11. 7-11 Removing Multiple i* ValuesRemoving Multiple i* Values Two approaches to determine External ROR (EROR) • (1) Modified ROR (MIRR) • (2) Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Two new interest rates to consider: Investment rate ii – rate at which extra funds are invested external to the project Borrowing rate ib – rate at which funds are borrowed from an external source to provide funds to the project © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 12. 7-12 Modified ROR Approach (MIRR)Modified ROR Approach (MIRR) Four step Procedure: Determine PW in year 0 of all negative CF at ib Determine FW in year n of all positive CF at ii Calculate EROR = i’ by FW = PW(F/P,i’,n) If i’ ≥ MARR, project is economically justified © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 13. 7-13 Example: EROR Using MIRR MethodExample: EROR Using MIRR Method For the NCF shown below, find the EROR by the MIRR method if MARR = 9%, ib = 8.5%, and ii = 12% Year 0 1 2 3 NCF +2000 -500 -8100 +6800 Solution: PW0 = -500(P/F,8.5%,1) - 8100(P/F,8.5%,2) = $-7342 FW3 = 2000(F/P,12%,3) + 6800 = $9610 PW0(F/P,i’,3) + FW3 = 0 -7342(1 + i’)3 + 9610 = 0 i’ = 0.939 (9.39%) Since i’ > MARR of 9%, project is justified © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 14. 7-14 Return on Invested Capital ApproachReturn on Invested Capital Approach Measure of how effectively project uses funds that remain internal to project ROIC rate, i’’, is determined using net-investment procedure Three step Procedure (1) Develop series of FW relations for each year t using: Ft = Ft-1(1 + k) + NCFt where: k = ii if Ft-1 > 0 and k = i’’ if Ft-1 < 0 (2) Set future worth relation for last year n equal to 0 (i.e., Fn= 0); solve for i’’ (3) If i’’ ≥ MARR, project is justified; otherwise, reject© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 15. ROIC ExampleROIC Example 7-15 For the NCF shown below, find the EROR by the ROIC method if MARR = 9% and ii = 12% Year 0 1 2 3 NCF +2000 -500 -8100 +6800 Solution: Year 0: F0 = $+2000 F0 > 0; invest in year 1 at ii = 12% Year 1: F1 = 2000(1.12) - 500 = $+1740 F1 > 0; invest in year 2 at ii = 12% Year 2: F2 = 1740(1.12) - 8100 = $-6151 F2 < 0; use i’’ for year 3 Year 3: F3 = -6151(1 + i’’) + 6800 Set F3 = 0 and solve for i’’ -6151(1 + i’’) + 6800 = 0 i’’= 10.55% Since i’’ > MARR of 9%, project is justified © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 16. Important Points to RememberImportant Points to Remember About the computation of an EROR value  EROR values are dependent upon the selected investment and/or borrowing rates  Commonly, multiple i* rates, i’ from MIRR and i’’ from ROIC have different values About the method used to decide  For a definitive economic decision, set the MARR value and use the PW or AW method to determine economic viability of the project 7-16 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 17. 7-17 ROR of Bond InvestmentROR of Bond Investment Bond is IOU with face value (V), coupon rate (b), no. of payment periods/year (c), dividend (I), and maturity date (n). Amount paid for the bond is P. I = Vb/c General equation for i*: 0 = - P + I(P/A,i*,nxc) + V(P/F,i*,nxc) Solution: (a) I = 10,000(0.06)/4 = $150 per quarter ROR equation is: 0 = -8000 + 150(P/A,i*,20) + 10,000(P/F,i*,20) By trial and error or spreadsheet: i* = 2.8% per quarter (b) Nominal i* per year = 2.8(4) = 11.2% per year Effective i* per year = (1 + 0.028)4 – 1 = 11.7% per year A $10,000 bond with 6% interest payable quarterly is purchased for $8000. If the bond matures in 5 years, what is the ROR (a) per quarter, (b) per year? © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved
  • 18. 7-18 Summary of Important PointsSummary of Important Points More than 1 sign change in NCF may cause multiple i* values Descarte’s rule of signs and Norstrom’s criterion useful when multiple i* values are suspected ROR equations can be written in terms of PW, FW, or AW and usually require trial and error solution i* assumes reinvestment of positive cash flows at i* rate EROR can be calculated using MIRR or ROIC approach. Assumptions about investment and borrowing rates is required. General ROR equation for bonds is 0 = - P + I(P/A,i*,nxc) + V(P/F,i*,nxc) © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved