Pre-proposal presentation by Irma Caraballo and Sofia Olivero for CIAM 6117

1. Relative Sea-Level Changes
and Vulnerability on the
Cordillera Nature Reserve
Irma Caraballo Álvarez
Sofia Olivero Lora
October 25, 2012

2. Project summary
O Climate change implications critical management and
conservation problem
O Importance of critical areas
O Cordillera Nature Reserve
O Cluster islets and submerged reefs
O Important ecological systems / Endangered species
O Coral, rock, and hardground reefs
O Coraline sandy beaches
O Sub-tropical dry forests
O Case study of special interest

4. Palominitos
September 2012, Picture by: Sofia Olivero Lora

5. Project summary
O Global warming phenomenon increases erosion by sea level
rise (Clayton, 2009).
O Transgression – erosion (Chaaban et al., 2012, Ahmad and Lakham, 2011, and Phillips and Williams,
2007)
O Tends suggests sea level rise (IPCC, 2007)
O Threats to ecosystems (Pendelton et al., 2010; Clayton, 2009; Gesch, 2009; Vafeidis et al., 2008; and
Davidson-Arnott, 2005).
O Some models suggest trends not necessarily due to sea level
rise (Ahmad and Lakhan, 2011).
O Comprehensive analysis of shoreline changes
O Sea level trends
O Possible effects
O Vulnerability

6. Research problem
O Drastic shoreline changes
O Not a lot of research
O Coastline shifts due to sea-level change
O Sea-level changes impact on La Cordillera
Natural Reserve

7. Goals and objectives
O Objective 1. Determine overall trends in
relative sea-level changes in the in four
study sites of the Cordillera Natural Reserve.
O Hypothesis. If an overall relative sea-level
rise is observed, then a transgression
should be seen and a reduced beach area
according to global warming induced sea-
level rise.

8. Goals and objectives
O Objective 2. Determine the impact of sea-
level changes on the shoreline.
O Hypothesis. If relative sea-level is rising,
then higher erosion should be observed at
the beach.

9. Goals and objectives
O Objective 3. Determine if relative sea-level
changes correlate with sea-level rise data for
San Juan and the Virgin Islands.
O Hypothesis. If a decrease in beach area and
transgression is observed, then it should
correlate with sea-level data from San Juan
and the Virgin Islands and the transgression
may indeed be caused by sea-level rise.

10. Goals and objectives
O Objective 4. Asses vulnerability to sea-level
changes according to geomorphology, wave
exposure, and slope.
O Hypothesis. If variability is seen in the
shoreline changes among the study sites,
then the selection factors have an effect on
vulnerability.

11. Methodology
O Study area
O Selection criteria
O Type and size of sediments
O Beach profile inclination
O Exposure to waves
O Availability of data
O Preliminary analysis geomorphology and
elevation
O Visual survey

12. Aerial image of La Cordillera
Natural Reserve

13. Aerial image of Palomino
and Palominitos

14. Methodology
O Shoreline changes
O Aerial photos and satellite imagery analysis
O ArcGIS v. 10.1
O Overlays
O Polygons
O ENVI v. 5.0
O Change detection tool
O Sea-level changes
O NOAA Tides and currents

15. NOAA Tides and Currents
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

16. NOAA Tides and Currents
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_update.shtml?stnid=9755371

17. Activities
O Publication in peer reviewed journal and
poster presentation(s) to disseminate
findings
O Brochure directed to boat owners written
with DRNA raise concern and educate
O Local and international tourists
O Sailors
O Local community

18. Timeline
Activity / Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Recruit experts
Images adquisition
Study sites selection
Data analysis
Aerial photos and satellite imagery
Overlaying aerial photographs and satellite
Correlation Shoreline changes/ mean sea level rise
Vulnerability assesment
Write project report
Final draft project report
Publish project report

19. Potential benefits
O With data from this research it may be
possible to predict the disappearance of an
island with ecological importance and high
ecotourism value.
O Findings from this project could be used for
the development of new long-term
management strategies.

20. Questions?