Partners Capital is an investment management firm that provides its view of the future of private equity investing over the next 5 years based on historical trends and forecasts. It projects that private equity assets under management will increase from $4.5 trillion to $6 trillion from 2017 to 2021 as committed but uncalled capital grows 80% and net asset value increases due to strong returns. It also examines projected returns for large cap buyout funds under different earnings growth and valuation scenarios, finding returns of 6.7-12% are possible. The document provides context and sources for its projections primarily using data from Preqin and the firm's own models.
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Partners Capital View of the Future of Private Equity Investing
1. PARTNERS
CAPITAL
Europe
5 Young Street
London W8 5EH
England
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7938 5200
North America
50 Rowes Wharf
Boston, MA 02110
United States
Tel: +1 (617) 292 2570
152 West 57th St., 47th Floor
New York, NY 10019
United States
Tel: +1 347 594 5506
Asia
Level 8, Two Exchange Square
8 Connaught Place
Central, Hong Kong
Tel: +852 2297 2467
7 November 2017
Partners Capital View of the Future of Private Equity Investing
Partners Capital Investment Group LLC
2. PARTNERS CAPITAL
Past performance is not indicative of future returns
This information is confidential and was prepared by Partners Capital solely for the use of our clients; it is not to be relied upon by any 3rd party. 2
PE Invested + Committed Uncalled Capital to grow by 80% in 5 years
$1,365
$1,895
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
Forecast LP Commitments
(2017-21)
$Billion
Net Asset Value
$1,617
Dry Powder
$869
Current Private Equity
Assets under Management
Estimated Increase $423
Maintaining 2014-16
annual
commitments
$2,117
Forecast NAV
Increase of Assets
(2017-21)
Forecast Private
Equity Distributions
(2017-21)
Dry Powder
$1,369
Net Asset Value
$3,128
Estimated Private Equity
Assets under Management
2021
$2,486
$4,497
Source
Preqin, Private Equity
Assets under
Management as of 30th
June 2016
PEI, Annual Fundraising Report 2016,
average of last 3 year commitments.
Preqin, Increase estimated by average
allocations of Global Institutional
Investors compared to their targets.
Partners Capital, long term
annualised return assumption of
10.5%.
Preqin, assumption that annual
realisations as a percentage of
private equity NAV are consistent with
previous 3 years.
3. PARTNERS CAPITAL
Past performance is not indicative of future returns
This information is confidential and was prepared by Partners Capital solely for the use of our clients; it is not to be relied upon by any 3rd party.
Buyout Manager Net IRR by Vintage Year 1997 - 2014
3
Median IRR for each vintage year
Source: Preqin, as of 31st March 2017.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net IRR
Market Cap Average IRR
Mega Cap 15.7%
Large Cap 12.4%
Mid Cap 12.8%
Small Cap 12.1%
4. PARTNERS CAPITAL
Past performance is not indicative of future returns
This information is confidential and was prepared by Partners Capital solely for the use of our clients; it is not to be relied upon by any 3rd party. 4
Expected Large Cap Buyout Returns: with Average S&P Earnings Growth
Model Inputs Large Cap Transaction
Entry Multiples 12.5x
Exit Multiples 12.5x
Debt / EBITDA Multiple and Cost of Debt 6.1x / LIBOR +4.5%
EBITDA CAGR over 5 year hold period 4.0%
Fees 1.5% / 20%
Net Cash Multiple 1.4x
Net IRR 6.7%
Source: Partners Capital leveraged buyout model as of 30th September 2017, using assumptions listed above. Corporate income tax rate assumed is 35%. Excludes Partners Capital fees.
No guarantees are or can be made as to the actual performance that will be achieved.
5. PARTNERS CAPITAL
Past performance is not indicative of future returns
This information is confidential and was prepared by Partners Capital solely for the use of our clients; it is not to be relied upon by any 3rd party. 5
Expected Large Cap Buyout Returns: with 8% Earnings Growth
Model Inputs Large Cap Transaction
Entry Multiples 12.5x
Exit Multiples 12.5x
Debt / EBITDA Multiple and Cost of Debt 6.1x / LIBOR +4.5%
EBITDA CAGR over 5 year hold period 8.0%
Fees 1.5% / 20%
Net Cash Multiple 1.9x
Net IRR 12.0%
Source: Partners Capital leveraged buyout model as of 30th September 2017, using assumptions listed above. Corporate income tax rate assumed is 35%. Excludes Partners Capital fees.
No guarantees are or can be made as to the actual performance that will be achieved.
6. PARTNERS CAPITAL
Past performance is not indicative of future returns
This information is confidential and was prepared by Partners Capital solely for the use of our clients; it is not to be relied upon by any 3rd party. 6
Expected Large Cap Buyout Returns: with 6.5% Earnings + Multiple Expansion
Model Inputs Large Cap Transaction
Entry Multiples 12.5x
Exit Multiples 13.5x
Debt / EBITDA Multiple and Cost of Debt 6.1x / LIBOR +4.5%
EBITDA CAGR over 5 year hold period 6.5%
Fees 1.5% / 20%
Net Cash Multiple 1.9x
Net IRR 12.0%
Source: Partners Capital leveraged buyout model as of 30th September 2017, using assumptions listed above. Corporate income tax rate assumed is 35%. Excludes Partners Capital fees.
No guarantees are or can be made as to the actual performance that will be achieved.
7. PARTNERS CAPITAL
Past performance is not indicative of future returns
This information is confidential and was prepared by Partners Capital solely for the use of our clients; it is not to be relied upon by any 3rd party.
Dispersion of Private Equity Manager Performance
7
Average IRR for Private Equity vintages 2000-2013.
Notes:
1. State Street, as of 31st March 2017. Average IRRs for funds in vintages 2000-2013.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Net IRR
Small Cap BuyoutVenture CapitalAll Private Equity Buyout Large Cap Buyout
17.7%
2.7%
9.3%
15.7%
21.5%
18.7%
22.0%
0.5%
5.3%
6.6%
3.7%
12.3%12.4%12.7%
7.5%