Davalos invited lecture on coca and beef SBU 2013

1. Markets for beef, markets for land, and why we
have to look way beyond coca to understand coca
Liliana M. Dávalos
Jennifer S. Holmes
Nelly Rodriguez
Dolors Armenteras

2. Two kinds of questions
Biological
diversity
Diversificatio
n, increase decrease Habitat loss

3. How important are
habitats? Schipper et al. 2008 Science
Hoffmann et al. 2011 PTRSB
Understanding habitat change

4. Vaupes, Colombia 2009 Antioquia, Colombia 2010
Understanding habitat change

5. Why deforestation? Geist & Lambin 2002 BioScience
Understanding habitat change

6. World Bank Statistics 2012
Population growth over
time
Understanding habitat change

7. An in-depth look
• Guaviare from 2001-2010
• One of two large foci of Plan
Colombia (the other was
Putumayo)
• Poor development indicators
• Extractive land uses
Guaviare, Colombia 2008
Understanding habitat change

8. 50
45
40
35
30
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
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Forest
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50 45 40 35 30
NP
40
35
30
2500
2000
1500
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Pasture
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28 30 32 34 36 38 40
3
2
400
350
300
250
200
150
Coca
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2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
700 ●
650
600
550
500
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50 45 40 35 30
PA (ha)
350
300
250
200
150
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28 30 32 34 36 38 40
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
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2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
110
100
90
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50 45 40 35 30
PLAND
ENN (m)
120
115
110
105
100
95
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28 30 32 34 36 38 40
PLAND
600
500
400
300
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2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
PLAND
Figure 2
A B
G
C
D E F
H I
25
2001 2004 2007 2010
25
2001 2004 2007 2010
1
2001 2004 2007 2010
PLAND
K L M
Fate of forest, fate of
coca Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change

9. Hamburger! (or steak)
Kaimowitz et al. 2004 CIFOR
Three explanations
Understanding habitat change
Coca
Dávalos et al. 2011 Environ
Sci Technol
Land tenure and property
Hecht 1993 BioScience

10. If coca were the
cause
• Perhaps eradication is
the solution
• Great because we can
solve coca
Understanding habitat change
coca decrease Eradication

11. San Jose
El Retorno
Calamar
A
B
C
Figure 90,000
60,000
30,000
2,200
2,000
1,800
30
20
10
Year
Ranching GDP (109 pesos) Price of beef (pesos/Kg) Cattle
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1,600
There are cows but
no money
• Relationship
cows:pasture yields ~
1.08 cow/ha
• This is up to 10X
overestimate
• Beef prices have
barely budged
• Ranching revenues
have plummeted
Understanding habitat change
Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Environ Chang

12. ●
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6000
4000
2000
0 3000 6000 9000
Eradication previous year (ha)
Coca cultivation (ha)
5
● 5
mpio
●
●
●
Calamar
Retorno
San Jose
Coca declined
• Forest was lost
• But coca declined
• Was coca decline
caused by fumigation?
• Analyses show no
relationship
Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change

13. Why did coca
decline?
• Each municipality
started out with
different amounts of
coca
• As the municipalities
become more urban,
there is less coca
• At ~50% urban
population there is 0
coca in the smaller
municipalities Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Municipality
●
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●
Calamar
El Retorno
San Jose
● ●
6,000
4,000
A B
Figure 6
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40
30
20
30,000 60,000 90,000
Cattle
Percentage land pasture
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2,000
30 40 50 60
Percentage population urban
Coca cultivation (ha)
Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change

14. San Jose
El Retorno
Calamar
A
B
C
Figure 5
2010
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
50
40
30
20
5
4
3
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Property Tax
(106 pesos/capita)
Construction GDP
(109 pesos)
Financial GDP
(109 pesos)
What urbanization
looks like
• Urban people paying
more taxes that
finance construction
• Finance becomes
important
• Less dependence on
ranching (and
agriculture)
Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change

15. Urban cows!
• Cows enhance claim
to the land
• The region is rapidly
urbanizing
• Per capita taxes are
rising => property
values are rising
• Clearing the land to
sell in future urban
market
Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change

16. A disturbing
development model
• Development excludes
coca
• Not eradication
• Development centered
on a model of
settlement that is
destructive
• And probably not
peaceful
Guaviare, Colombia 2008

17. coca nothing More
decrease Eradication
Urbanization
Development
Missing the real point
&
Understanding habitat change
becomes
Pasture
&
Cows
property is

18. Thanks!
• Funding
• CIDER –SBU
• Collaborators
conservation & policy
• A. Bejarano, A.
Corthals, L. Correa, C.
Romero
• Dávalos Lab
• P. Connell, M. Hall, E.
Simola, G. Tudda