1. The future of renewable energy –
an overview of a range of credible options
Eric Martinot
Report Author,
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Plenary Opening Interview ADIREC
Renewable Energy Outlook
Abu Dhabi 16/1/2013

5. Global Renewable Energy Investment 2004 - 2011
Source: UNEP/
Bloomberg:
Global Trends in
Renewable Energy
Investment 2011

6. Source: Global Status Report 2012

7. Historic Projections Fall Short

9. CEOs, Presidents
Financiers
Researchers
Policymakers
Consultants
Heads of Industry Associations
Journalists
Regulatory Staff
Parliamentarians
Public Advocates
Electricity Utility Managers
Multilateral Agency Staff
Academics
City Government Official

16. Technical, Market, and Regulatory Options to Balance Renewables
 New power market designs that support greater flexibility
 Expanded diversity of resources within geographic grid balancing areas
 Co-ordination/merging of balancing areas under balancing authorities
 Faster balancing response times through market/operational mechanisms
 New types of system optimization
 Power dispatch models that incorporate day-ahead weather forecasts
 Controlled curtailment of renewables
 Demand response
 Gas turbines (peaking and non-peaking)
 Strengthened transmission capacity and interconnection
 Energy storage
 Ramping and cycling of conventional plants

17. Expert Views on Integration
“Integration is in our face over the next five to
ten years” (utility power grids, buildings,
transport and industry).
“Integration is not just about hardware, but
also about how power markets function”

19. Futures at the Local/City Level

20. Innovative Approaches and Visions at the Local/City Level
 Public infrastructure
 Community investment
 Municipal utilities
 Planning approaches for low-energy buildings
 Renewable (and district) heating and cooling
 Public transport fleets
 Electric vehicle infrastructure
 Smart cities

21. National (and EU) Snapshots of Markets and Policies
 EU 20% target by 2020, including 10% transport
 US state level policies push continued market growth
 Japan targets 33 GW of solar PV and 9.5 GW of winds by 2020
 China became a world leader in wind power in just five years
 India projects 90 GW wind power by 2022 and targets 20 GW PV
and CSP and 20 million rural lighting systems

22. Markets Expand and Diversity
 At national level, at least 30 countries around the world already
have shares of renewable energy 20%.
 120 countries have various types of policy targets for long-term
shares of renewable energy
 Outside of Europe, a diverse group of at least 20 other countries
target energy shares the 2020-2030 times frame that range from 1050%

23. Developing Countries – Unique Opportunities for Renewables
 New electric power infrastructure
 Diesel generator replacement
 New settlements
 New power-market rules
 Regional cooperation frameworks
 Local manufacturing / rural (off-grid) energy services
Projected markets in a much greater number of developing countries on
a bigger scale will create a diverse geographic base for renewables

25. Global Markets Continue to Evolve
 Solar PV: Grid parity spreads around the world
 CSP: Dedicated applications and grid balancing
 Wind Onshore: Competitive with conventional energy
 Wind Offshore: Cost reduction in logistics and long-term O&M
 Biofuels: Advanced biofuels from agriculture and forestry wastes
 Biomass: Wide variety of new approaches, greater use in heating

26. “The future of renewable energy is
fundamentally a choice, not a foregone
conclusion given technology and economic
trends”

27. Join the Global Dialogue on the Future of Renewables
 Thanks .…
 Contact Us to Participate in the Ongoing Discussion
 Eric Martinot ISEP martinot@isep.or.jp
 Lily Riahi REN21 lily.riahi@ren21.net
 Join the Renewables Global Futures Report Community on
REN21+ www.ren21plus.net