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FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012:
                            THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS
                            by Arch Puddington


The political uprisings that swept across the        dissident writers to long terms in prison. In
Arab world over the past year represent the most     Russia, the state-controlled media bombarded
significant challenge to authoritarian rule since    domestic audiences with predictions of chaos
the collapse of Soviet communism. In a region        and instability as a consequence of the Arab
that had seemed immune to democratic change,         protests, with a clear message that demands for
coalitions of activist reformers and ordinary        political reform in Russia would have similarly
citizens succeeded in removing dictators who         catastrophic results. In other Eurasian countries
had spent decades entrenching themselves in          and in parts of Africa, the authorities went to
power. In some cases, protest and upheaval was       considerable lengths to suppress demonstrations
followed by the beginnings of democratic             and isolate the democratic opposition.
institution building. At year’s end, two countries
with unbroken histories of fraudulent polling,       The authoritarian response to change in the
Tunisia and Egypt, had conducted elections that      Middle East had a significant impact on the state
observers deemed competitive and credible, and       of global freedom at year’s end. The findings of
freedom of expression had gained momentum in         Freedom in the World 2012, the latest edition of
many Middle Eastern societies.                       Freedom House’s annual report on political
                                                     rights and civil liberties, showed that slightly
Unfortunately, the gains that were recorded in       more countries registered declines than exhibited
Tunisia, and to a considerably lesser extent in      gains over the course of 2011. This marks the
Egypt and Libya, were offset by more dubious         sixth consecutive year in which countries with
trends elsewhere in the region. Indeed, the          declines outnumbered those with improvements.
overthrow of autocrats in these countries
provoked determined and often violent                The continued pattern of global backsliding—
responses in many others, most notably in Syria,     especially in such critical areas as press
where by year’s end the Assad dictatorship had       freedom, the rule of law, and the rights of civil
killed over 5,000 people in its efforts to crush     society—is a sobering reminder that the
widespread antigovernment protests. Similar if       institutions that anchor democratic governance
less bloody crackdowns took place in Bahrain         cannot be achieved by protests alone. Yet if
and Yemen.                                           there is an overarching message for the year, it is
                                                     one of hope and not of reversal. For the first
This pattern of protest and repression—with an       time in some years, governments and rulers who
emphasis on the latter—was echoed elsewhere          mistreated their people were on the defensive.
in the world as news of the Arab uprisings           This represents a welcome change from the
spread beyond the Middle East and North              dominant trends of just a year ago, when
Africa. In China, the authorities responded to       authoritarian powers repressed domestic critics
events in Cairo’s Tahrir Square with a near-         and dismissed mild objections from the
hysterical campaign of arrests, incommunicado        democratic world with brazen contempt. In
detentions, press censorship, and stepped-up         2010, China conducted a bullying campaign
control over the internet. The Chinese               against the Nobel committee for honoring jailed
Communist Party’s pushback, which aimed to           dissident Liu Xiaobo, Russia imposed a second
quash potential prodemocracy demonstrations          prison term on former oil magnate Mikhail
before they even emerged, reached a crescendo        Khodorkovsky after a fraudulent judicial
in December with the sentencing of a number of       proceeding, and Egyptian president Hosni
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


Mubarak’s National Democratic Party claimed             Freedom’s Trajectory in 2011
to have won heavily rigged parliamentary
elections with well over 80 percent of the seats.       The number of countries exhibiting gains for the
                                                        past year, 12, lagged somewhat behind the
In 2011, by contrast, the signal events were the        number with declines, 26. The most noteworthy
overthrow of Mubarak, Tunisia’s Zine el-                gains were in the Middle East—in Tunisia,
Abidine Ben Ali, and Libya’s Mu’ammar al-               Egypt, and Libya—and in three Asian
Qadhafi; successful elections in Tunisia; and           countries—Burma, Singapore, and Thailand. It
democratic ferment throughout the Arab world.           should be noted that despite their gains, Burma,
Meanwhile, China’s perpetual campaign of                Egypt, and Libya remained in the Not Free
repression, directed at writers, lawyers,               category. Moreover, while the Middle East
journalists, religious believers, ethnic minorities,    experienced the most significant improvements,
and ordinary citizens who had spoken out                it also registered the most declines, with a list of
against injustice and state abuses, seemed only         worsening countries that includes Bahrain, Iran,
to show the staggering fears and weaknesses of a        Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab
regime that otherwise presents the image of a           Emirates, and Yemen. Declines were also noted
confident, globally integrated economic                 in a number of countries in Central and Eastern
powerhouse. And in Russia, Vladimir Putin               Europe and Eurasia, including Albania,
faced his first serious political crisis, as election   Azerbaijan, Hungary, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
fraud and the prospect of 12 more years without
new leadership drew tens of thousands of                Among other trends:
protesters to the streets.
                                                        •   Glimmers of Hope for the Most
Whether the events of 2011 will lead to a true              Repressed: Burma, which has ranked
wave of democratic revolution is uncertain.                 alongside North Korea as one of the world’s
Tunisia was clearly the greatest beneficiary of             most closed societies, experienced what
the year’s changes. It experienced one of the               many hope will become a major political
largest single-year improvements in the history             opening. The government of President Thein
of the Freedom in the World report, rising from             Sein has permitted more public discussion,
among the worst-performing Middle Eastern                   tolerated a measure of press commentary,
countries to achieve electoral democracy status             freed longtime opposition leader Aung San
and scores that place it roughly alongside such             Suu Kyi, and cleared the path for her party’s
Partly Free countries as Colombia and                       participation in elections. Another country
Philippines. But much remains to be done, and               that endured decades of brutal misrule,
there are some questions about the positions of             Libya, now has the potential for significant
the new leaders on such crucial issues as                   gains thanks to the overthrow of al-Qadhafi.
minority rights, freedom of belief, and freedom             Cuba, also one of the world’s most
of expression. Egypt also made significant gains,           repressive countries, experienced a small
but they have been overshadowed in many                     improvement linked to the limited reduction
respects by the continued political dominance of            of economic restrictions by the government
the military, its hostility toward media critics, its       of Raúl Castro. Unlike in Burma, however,
campaign against human rights organizations,                Cuba underwent no political liberalization.
and its humiliating treatment of female
protesters. In many other Arab countries,               •   (Some) Good News in Asia: In a region
democracy movements have yet to reach even                  whose dominant power, China, maintains
the initial milestone of forcing the resignation of         the world’s most sophisticated and
their longtime rulers. The perceived success or             comprehensive system of authoritarian
failure of these efforts will either continue to            political control, the recent trend has been
inspire similar changes in the rest of the world,           largely    positive.    Aside     from   the
or bolster authoritarian calls for “stability” at           improvements in Burma, the past year was
any price.                                                  notable for more open and competitive
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


    elections in Singapore, whose unique variant        Ukraine, where a series of negative
    of “guided democracy” has been in place for         developments was punctuated by the
    several decades. In fact, for the countries of      conviction of opposition leader Yuliya
    Asia proper, practically every indicator            Tymoshenko on dubious charges. In the past
    measured by Freedom in the World                    two years, Ukraine has moved from a status
    improved to some degree.                            of Free to Partly Free and suffered
                                                        deterioration on most indicators measured
•   Sectarian Strife in the Middle East: The            by Freedom House. Developments in
    intensified violence between Sunni and              Turkey are also worrying, given the
    Shiite Muslims in Iraq as U.S. forces               country’s role as a model for democracy in
    completed their withdrawal touched on a             Muslim-majority      countries      and    its
    broader threat posed by sectarianism to             aspirations to regional leadership. While the
    democracy’s future in the region.                   government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
    Differences among various strains of Islam          Erdoğan has instituted important reforms
    complicated the crackdown on mainly Shiite          since coming to power, stepped-up arrests of
    protesters in Bahrain, and played a role in         advocates for Kurdish rights and the
    the crisis in Syria, principally propelled by       continued pursuit of the wide-ranging and
    President Bashar al-Assad’s desperate               politically fraught Ergenekon conspiracy
    efforts to remain in power. Sunni-Shiite            case, which has led to lengthy detentions
    rivalry also presents a serious threat to           without charge, are both causes for concern.
    political stability in Lebanon, while in            In Hungary, the government of Prime
    Egypt, anti-Christian sentiment flared into         Minister Viktor Orbán, taking advantage of
    violence during the year, with notable help         a parliamentary supermajority, has pushed
    from the military.                                  through a new constitution and a raft of laws
                                                        that could seriously weaken press freedom,
•   Long-Term Setbacks in Energy-Rich                   judicial independence, and a fair election
    Eurasia: The past year featured the                 process. And in South Africa, new media
    continuation of a decade-long trend of              regulations and evidence of pervasive
    setbacks for the wealthiest and most                corruption within the African National
    “modern” former Soviet countries: Russia,           Congress leadership threaten to undermine
    Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. The level of            the country’s past achievements in peaceful
    freedom fell further despite rising popular         democratic change.
    demands for reform and warning signs from
    the Middle East. Indeed, beginning with the      Results for 2011
    “color revolutions” of 2003 to 05,
    authoritarians in Eurasia have consistently      The number of countries designated by Freedom
    responded to freedom movements outside           in the World as Free in 2011 stood at 87,
    their borders with intensified clampdowns at     representing 45 percent of the world’s 195
    home. Year-end protests in Moscow and            polities and 3,016,566,100 people—43 percent
    violent labor unrest in Kazakhstan should        of the global population. The number of Free
    remind the world that repression does not in     countries did not change from the previous
    fact lead to stability.                          year’s survey.

•   Danger Signs for New Democracies: Until          The number of countries qualifying as Partly
    recently, Ukraine, Hungary, South Africa,        Free stood at 60, or 31 percent of all countries
    and Turkey were regarded as important            assessed by the survey, and they were home to
    success stories for democratic development.      1,497,442,500 people, or 22 percent of the
    Now,       increasingly,  the    democratic      world’s total. The number of Partly Free
    credentials of each is coming under              countries did not change from the previous year.
    question. The steepest decline in the
    institutions of freedom has taken place in       A total of 48 countries were deemed Not Free,
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


representing 24 percent of the world’s polities.      One country, Nicaragua, was dropped from the
The number of people living under Not Free            electoral democracy roster.
conditions stood at 2,453,231,500, or 35 percent
of the global population, though it is important      One country moved from Not Free to Partly
to note that more than half of this number lives      Free: Tunisia. One country, The Gambia,
in just one country: China. The number of Not         dropped from Partly Free to Not Free.
Free countries increased by one from 2010 due
to the inclusion for the first time of South Sudan,   ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL TRENDS
a new state that was given a Not Free
designation.                                          Middle East and North Africa: The Arab
                                                      Spring’s Ambiguous Achievements

                                                      Even in a region that was notorious for its
            FREE, PARTLY FREE,                        leaders’ disdain for honest government and civil
                NOT FREE                              liberties, Tunisia had long stood out for the
                                                      thoroughness of its system of control and
                                                      oppression. Its longtime strongman, Zine el-
  Freedom in the World applies one of three
                                                      Abidine Ben Ali, had seemingly smothered all
  broad category designations to each of the
                                                      significant sources of opposition. Dissenters had
  countries and territories included in the
                                                      been jailed or exiled, press censorship was
  index: Free, Partly Free, and Not Free.
                                                      scrupulously enforced, and the judiciary was
                                                      under strict political control. This country
  A Free country is one where there is open
                                                      seemed a highly unlikely setting for a
  political competition, a climate of respect
                                                      democratic revolution.
  for civil liberties, significant independent
  civic life, and independent media.
                                                      Yet it is Tunisia that has emerged as the most
                                                      dramatic success story thus far in the series of
  A Partly Free country is one in which there
                                                      popular uprisings that took place across the Arab
  is limited respect for political rights and
                                                      world during 2011. It has been transformed from
  civil liberties. Partly Free states frequently
                                                      a showcase for Arab autocracy to an electoral
  suffer from an environment of corruption,
                                                      democracy whose new leaders have pledged
  weak rule of law, ethnic and religious strife,
                                                      themselves to moderation, adherence to civil
  and a political landscape in which a single
                                                      liberties, and the rule of law. The press is critical
  party enjoys dominance despite a certain
                                                      and vibrant; there are practically no taboo
  degree of pluralism.
                                                      subjects. Civil society has proliferated, and
                                                      elements within the new leadership appear
  A Not Free country is one where basic
                                                      committed to tackling the problem of pervasive
  political rights are absent, and basic civil
                                                      corruption, though achieving such deep
  liberties are widely and systematically
                                                      institutional reforms will likely require many
  denied.
                                                      years of effort.
  For more on how these designations are
                                                      Some gains were also made in Egypt and Libya,
  determined, see the Methodology section on
                                                      but in both of these societies, the future
  page 33.
                                                      prospects for democratic reform are still very
                                                      much in doubt. In Egypt, governing authority
                                                      shifted from the Mubarak regime to the Supreme
The number of electoral democracies increased         Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), a group
by two and stands at 117. Three countries             of military leaders who have dispensed justice
achieved electoral democracy status due to            through military tribunals, engaged in periodic
elections that were widely regarded as                crackdowns on critical media, raided the offices
improvements: Niger, Thailand, and Tunisia.           of civil society organizations, mistreated women
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


activists, and engaged in violence against             that were either introduced in the Knesset or
Christians. While a protracted election process,       signed into law and were seen by critics as
still under way at year’s end, was conducted           threats to freedom of speech. One measure that
with an adherence to fair practices that stood in      was enacted called for punishment of those who
vivid contrast to the sham polls of the Mubarak        support boycotts against Israel or its institutions,
regime, the dominant forces in the new                 including universities and businesses located in
parliament will be Islamist parties whose              West Bank settlements.
devotion to democracy is open to question. And
while Libya has benefited greatly from the
demise of the Qadhafi dictatorship, the country
confronts an array of daunting political and                       WORST OF THE WORST
security challenges, and has yet to hold its first
elections.                                                Of the 48 countries designated as Not Free,
                                                          nine have been given the survey’s lowest
In other regional countries, demands for freedom          possible rating of 7 for both political rights
have been met with stepped-up repression. In the          and civil liberties. These worst-rated
worst case, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad                 countries represent a narrow range of systems
responded to widespread peaceful protests with            and cultures. One—North Korea—is a one-
a campaign of arrests, torture, and urban                 party, Marxist-Leninist regime. Two—
fusillades that took the lives of an estimated            Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—are Central
5,000 Syrians by year’s end. In Bahrain, a                Asian countries ruled by dictators with roots
prodemocracy movement consisting principally              in the Soviet period. Sudan is ruled by a
of members of the Shiite majority encountered             leadership that has elements of both radical
violent repression by the monarchy and                    Islamism and a traditional military junta. The
intervention by the Saudi military. The                   remaining worst-rated states are Equatorial
government’s tactics included mass arrests,               Guinea, a highly corrupt regime with one of
torture, and the use of military justice in cases of      the worst human rights records in Africa;
political activists. In Yemen, security forces            Eritrea, an increasingly repressive police
loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh killed              state; Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy
hundreds of civilians as Saleh repeatedly slipped         with severe social controls; Syria, a
out of agreements on a transfer of power. The             dictatorship in the midst of a bloody
authorities in Saudi Arabia intensified their             crackdown; and Somalia, a failed state. The
persecution of Shiites and other Muslim sects,            two worst-rated territories in the survey are
while Iran escalated its persecution of                   Tibet—under Chinese jurisdiction—and
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and                  Western Sahara, which is controlled by
civic leaders who were critical of regime                 Morocco.
actions. Lebanon suffered a decline in civil
liberties due to the violent treatment of                 An additional 8 countries and territories
protesters and punitive measures against those            received scores that were slightly above those
demanding regime change in neighboring Syria.             of the worst-ranked countries, with ratings of
The United Arab Emirates also experienced a               6,7 or 7,6 for political rights and civil
civil liberties decline after the government              liberties: Belarus, Burma, Chad, China, Cuba,
tightened restrictions on free speech and civil           Laos, Libya, and South Ossetia.
society and arrested those calling for political
change.
                                                       Asia-Pacific: Important Gains, Despite China
Israel’s relations with Palestinians in the West       and Conflict
Bank and Gaza Strip, and with other countries in
the region, worsened as the year’s tumult raised       Over the past five years, the Asia-Pacific region
expectations and shook old assumptions. Israel         has been the only one to record steady gains in
also faced condemnation for a series of measures       the majority of indicators that are measured by
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


Freedom in the World. Progress is especially         largest democracy, showed increased room for
noteworthy in the countries of Asia proper,          peaceful demonstrations, particularly with the
excluding the small Pacific island nations. The      rise of an anticorruption movement that brought
most impressive gains have come in the               tens of thousands of people to the streets. Indian-
institutions of electoral democracy—elections,       administered Kashmir experienced a notable
political parties, pluralism—and in freedom of       improvement in the space for open public
association.                                         discussion amid growing use of social media and
                                                     a drop in violence.
The embrace of free institutions has taken place
in the face of significant regional obstacles,       The most significant gain occurred in Burma,
including, most notably, the influence of China.     which had endured decades of political
In recent years China has accelerated its efforts    repression under a military junta. What
to project its power beyond its borders, and its     observers interpreted as a major political
Asian neighbors have been important targets of       opening was initiated during 2011. In a series of
this effort. Despite several incidents in which      steps toward a more liberal domestic
critics of the Chinese government and exiled         environment, the leadership allowed opposition
Chinese minorities encountered repression in         leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her political party,
Nepal, Indonesia, and Vietnam, the allure of the     the National League for Democracy, to register
so-called China model—combining state-led            and compete in forthcoming by-elections, eased
economic growth, a Leninist one-party political      press censorship, and legalized political
system, and strict control over the media—has        protest. At the same time, many cautioned that it
gained only modest traction in the region.           was still unclear whether the changes in Burma
Meanwhile, the Chinese leadership has                were durable or simply cosmetic improvements
demonstrated no serious interest in political        by the regime. In Singapore, the system of
liberalization at home, and has devoted              managed democracy engineered by the former
impressive resources to internet censorship, the     prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, was loosened,
suppression of minorities, and the elimination of    and opposition candidates gained popular
even oblique political dissent. In 2011, the         support in national elections, though the system
authorities carried out a major campaign of          ensured that this did not translate into
repression in the wake of the Arab uprisings by      significantly increased representation in the
censoring public discussion of the movement for      parliament. Conditions also improved in
Arab democratization, prosecuting or arbitrarily     Thailand, whose deeply polarized political life
detaining scores of social-media commentators        had been dominated by riots and crippling
and human rights lawyers, and strengthening the      demonstrations for several years. A July election
online censorship of domestic social-networking      led to a peaceful transfer of power to the
services.                                            opposition party and the installation as prime
                                                     minister of Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of
Another regional challenge is the explosion of       controversial former prime minister Thaksin
civil and sectarian strife in South Asia. In         Shinawatra. However, there has been some
Afghanistan, violence continued unabated in          backsliding on civil liberties since the end of
2011, with high-profile political assassinations     November.
and high civilian casualty rates. In Pakistan,
there was growing discord over enforcement of        Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia:
the country’s blasphemy laws, punctuated by the      Stability and Stagnation
murders of Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer and
Shahbaz Bhatti, the minister for minority affairs,   The protests that roiled Moscow and other
both of whom had criticized the blasphemy            Russian cities in the wake of deeply flawed
statutes. Bangladesh also suffered a decline due     December parliamentary elections were stark
to the ruling Awami League’s prosecution of          reminders that no authoritarian leadership, no
opposition politicians and efforts to muzzle         matter how sophisticated its methods, is immune
NGOs. On the other hand, India, the world’s          to popular demands for change. While the
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


immediate trigger for the mass demonstrations         criticism for his apparent efforts to marginalize
were widely circulated YouTube videos that            potential opposition figures.
suggested ballot-stuffing and other forms of
election fraud, the protests also reflected           Meanwhile, in several cases, the region’s most
displeasure with the earlier announcement that        repressive regimes declined still further. In
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President           Azerbaijan, the government of President Ilham
Dmitry Medvedev had forged an agreement to            Aliyev used force to break up demonstrations,
swap positions at the end of Medvedev’s term in       jailed opposition activists, tried to neutralize the
2012. The two men had failed to fulfill long-         international press, and misused state power to
standing promises to reform Russia’s corrupt,         evict citizens from their homes as part of
stagnant, and unresponsive government system,         grandiose building schemes. Kazakhstan
and the idea of Putin’s return for a third and        suffered a decline due to the adoption of
possibly fourth presidential term helped drive        legislation that restricted religious belief. In
ordinary Russians to the unprecedented                December, conditions deteriorated further when
demonstrations.                                       the regime used violence in an effort to put
                                                      down labor protests by oil workers. And in
There are many questions about the ability of the     Belarus, the regime of President Alyaksandr
forces that led the postelection protests to          Lukashenka held scores of political prisoners
influence future politics in Russia. But clearly      and adopted a series of bizarre policies—such as
Russia is not alone in its vulnerability to popular   outlawing public clapping in unison—to prevent
discontent with authoritarian leadership. As the      creative expressions of popular discontent over
20th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s                political repression and economic decline.
disintegration was marked at year’s end, most
Eurasian countries were still subject to              For most of Central and Eastern Europe and the
autocratic rule of one variant or another.            Baltics, by contrast, the year was notable for the
Whereas prior to 2011 the “president for life”        ability of most countries to weather the
phenomenon was principally associated with the        European economic crisis without major damage
Middle East, it is today more likely to apply to      to the basic institutions of democracy. At the
the long-term leaders of the former Soviet            same time, a number of countries in the region
Union.                                                remained highly vulnerable to precarious
                                                      economies, the merging of business and political
The authoritarian temptation poses a threat even      interests, and corruption. Latvia, Bulgaria,
in countries with recent histories of free-           Romania, and the Western Balkans could face
wheeling democracy. Thus Ukraine suffered a           problems as Europe’s economic woes persist.
major decline due to President Viktor
Yanukovych’s moves to crush the political             Hungary poses the most serious problem in
opposition through a variety of antidemocratic        Central Europe. The government of Viktor
tactics, including the prosecution of opposition      Orbán has taken advantage of a two-thirds
political leader and former prime minister            parliamentary majority to push through a new
Yuliya Tymoshenko. Other “color revolution”           and problematic constitution without adequate
countries also faced problems. Kyrgyzstan,            input from the opposition, and a series of laws
recovering from a 2010 revolt against an              that are widely seen as threats to press freedom,
authoritarian president, held national elections      judicial independence, and political pluralism.
that were judged to be relatively fair and            Albania experienced declines due to violence
competitive. Nevertheless, deep divisions             against demonstrators, flawed municipal
lingered between the majority Kyrgyz and              elections, and the failure of the courts to deal
minority Uzbeks, and little progress was made in      effectively with major corruption cases. On the
bringing to justice those responsible for anti-       positive side, Slovakia was credited for having
Uzbek violence in mid-2010. In Georgia,               adopted legislation designed to shield the press
President Mikheil Saakashvili continued to face       from political intimidation.
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


The Balkans achieved mixed progress on the
road to democratization and European Union
(EU) accession. In July, Serbia’s government           LARGEST NET CHANGES IN TOTAL
finally surrendered the last of the 161 suspected        AGGREGATE SCORE, 2007–2011
war criminals indicted by the International
Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia,                  Declines           Improvements
including Ratko Mladić, a leading figure in the
1995 Srebrenica massacre who had evaded                 The Gambia       -24   Tunisia          35
arrest for 16 years. Mladić’s extradition met
with disapproval from over 50 percent of                Madagascar       -19   Maldives         20
Serbia’s population, triggering sizeable protests.      Mauritania       -19   Bangladesh       18
Nationalism in much of the Balkan region
continues to undermine regional reconciliation          Bahrain          -17   Pakistan         17
efforts and complicate relations with the
EU. Pressures on free media increased across the        Ethiopia         -14   Tonga            16
Balkans, particularly in Macedonia, where an
                                                        Nicaragua        -13   Thailand         13
opposition-oriented television station and
several newspapers were harassed and closed.            Ukraine          -13   Burma            11

Sub-Saharan Africa: Civil Society Under                 Afghanistan      -11   Egypt            10
Pressure
                                                        Yemen            -11   Libya            9
A decade ago, sub-Saharan Africa was notable            Burundi          -10   Bhutan           9
for the steady if sometimes halting progress that
its societies were making toward the
establishment of democratic institutions. In           This table shows the countries with the
recent years, however, that progress has first         largest net gains or losses in total aggregate
stalled and then been somewhat reversed. The           score (0–100) between Freedom in the
year 2011 gave evidence of moderate decline,           World 2008 and Freedom in the World
with particular problems in countries where            2012.
members of the opposition and civil society
made pleas for change in emulation of protests         See page 14 for these countries’ current
in the Arab world.                                     status and ratings.

Five of the 10 countries that registered the most
significant declines in the Freedom in the World     the political opposition, the media, and civil
report over the two-year period from 2010 to         society in the run-up to the vote.
2011 were in Africa: The Gambia, Ethiopia,
Burundi, Rwanda, and Djibouti. Likewise, over        Five other regional countries experienced
the five-year period from 2007 through 2011,         declines for the year. Ethiopia continued a
Africa as a region has exhibited declines in each    decade-long trend of growing authoritarianism,
of the topical subcategories measured by             with the government of Prime Minister Meles
Freedom in the World. Particularly substantial       Zenawi making increased use of antiterrorism
declines were recorded for rule of law and           laws against the political opposition and
freedom of association.                              journalists. In Sudan, the administration of
                                                     President Omar al-Bashir engaged in stepped-up
The Gambia experienced the most notable              arrests of opposition leaders, banned a leading
decline over the past year. Its status moved from    political party, used violent tactics against
Partly Free to Not Free due to a presidential        demonstrators, and persecuted the media. In
election that was judged neither free nor fair,      Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni cracked
and President Yahya Jammeh’s suppression of          down on critical members of the press in a year
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


that also featured flawed national elections,          critics, the government’s use of state resources
repressive tactics against protesters, and             to influence the outcome of a referendum, and a
continued harassment of the gay community.             restructuring of the judiciary that was in blatant
Malawi witnessed pressure against journalists          violation of constitutional provisions.
and violence against protesters as well as
violations      of      academic        freedom.       Chávez himself was preoccupied with medical
Antigovernment protests were also met with             treatment, mostly carried out under less-than-
repressive tactics in Djibouti, where the              transparent conditions in Cuba, reportedly for
intimidation of opposition political parties was       prostate cancer. Chávez has announced that he
followed by the election of President Ismail           will seek reelection in 2012, but the campaign
Omar Guelleh to a third term in office.                promises to be more competitive than in the past
                                                       due to the apparent unity of the opposition.
Two countries with recent histories of political
upheaval registered gains. Conditions in Côte          Violent crime, much of it generated by drug-
d’Ivoire improved somewhat after Alassane              trafficking groups, continued to plague societies
Ouattara assumed the presidency, ending months         throughout the region, causing ripple effects in
of civil strife associated with incumbent              the political system and contributing to a
president Laurent Gbagbo’s refusal to surrender        growing trend toward the militarization of police
power despite his defeat in 2010 elections.            work. In Mexico, government institutions
Gbagbo was later turned over to the                    remained unable to protect ordinary citizens,
International Criminal Court for prosecution.          journalists, and elected officials in many areas
Niger experienced a major improvement in its           from organized crime. Mexican journalism in
political rights rating due to credible national       certain regions remains shackled by drug-gang
and local elections that marked the end of more        intimidation, with some editors significantly
than a year of military rule.                          altering coverage to avoid violent repercussions.
                                                       In Venezuela, the kidnapping for ransom of
Americas: Continuity Despite Populist Threat           professional baseball catcher Wilson Ramos
                                                       stood out as a vivid reminder of the violent
Over the past decade, left-wing populist leaders       criminality that more commonly affects the
have risen to power in a number of Latin               population at large. In Brazil, the government’s
American countries, causing some to predict that       efforts to bring down crime in the most troubled
the authoritarian model established by                 urban districts in advance of the 2014 World
Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez would                Cup soccer tournament have been met by
come to dominate the politics of the region. In        determined resistance from organized gangs.
fact, authoritarian populism has remained a
minority phenomenon, as most societies have            In other developments, Guatemala registered an
embraced the model of private-sector growth,           improvement in political rights due to progress
social-welfare initiatives, and adherence to           made by an international commission set up to
democratic standards established by leaders in         investigate impunity and corruption in the
Brazil, Chile, and Mexico.                             country’s institutions. Puerto Rico suffered a
                                                       civil liberties decline stemming from reports of
Nevertheless, events in 2011 demonstrated that         widespread police misconduct and brutality.
quasi-authoritarian populism still stands as a
threat to the region’s political stability. In the     Western Europe and North America:
most serious case, Nicaragua suffered a steep          Economic Crisis, Protests, and Civil Liberties
decline in political rights due to irregularities in
advance of and during the presidential election,       In the face of the most serious economic crisis in
which gave Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega             the postwar period, the countries of Western
another term in office. Likewise, Ecuador              Europe and North America maintained their
suffered a decline due to President Rafael             traditionally high level of respect for democratic
Correa’s intensified campaign against media            standards and civil liberties. This was even the
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


case in countries that were compelled to make         finds offensive. In 2011, women in France and
major cuts to social-welfare provisions in            Belgium were arrested in cases related to the
response to high levels of indebtedness.              wearing of ultraconservative Muslim female
Throughout Europe, citizens mounted massive           attire.
demonstrations to protest policies, often dictated
by the EU and the International Monetary Fund,        Also during the year, observers raised doubts
that called for fiscal austerity and the removal of   about the durability of the current Turkish
various protections for many workers and              political model, in which a ruling party with
industries. By and large, the demonstrations          moderate Islamist roots has committed itself to
were peaceful and the police response                 the norms of liberal democracy. While the
nonviolent. The exception was Greece, where           Justice and Development Party (AKP) was
anarchists frequently set fires and threw             credited with instituting important reforms
projectiles at police, and the police responded       during its early years in power, its recent
with batons and tear gas.                             behavior has triggered concern among
                                                      supporters of press freedom and civil liberties.
It is unlikely that Europe’s democratic standards     In the past few years, thousands of people have
will suffer serious setbacks in the wake of the       been arrested on charges of involvement with
ongoing debt crisis. Nonetheless, the region does     Kurdish terrorist organizations or participation
face major challenges. A number of European           in an alleged military conspiracy to overthrow
countries are already confronted by problems          the government. Those detained include
associated with the influx of immigrants from         journalists, scholars, and even defense lawyers.
the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, and have
shown little willingness to devise rational and       Britain was rocked first by a series of urban
humane policies toward their integration.             riots, which many felt were handled poorly by
Economic decline could well exacerbate                the authorities, and then by a “phone hacking”
polarization over immigration policy, as              case in which members of the tabloid press were
migrants seek refuge from upheavals in the Arab       accused of widespread abuse of privacy rights in
world and unemployment levels in some                 pursuit of sensationalistic stories about
European countries are at record levels. Until        celebrities and, most controversially, crime
recently a marginal phenomenon, the parties of        victims. At the same time, the coalition
the anti-immigrant right emerged as major             government of Conservatives and Liberal
forces in Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, France,      Democrats indicated that a law aimed at
Finland, and the Netherlands during the past          reforming the country’s punitive libel laws
decade, and they occasionally achieve voter           would be introduced in 2012. The measure is
support of over 20 percent.                           meant to deal with the phenomenon of “libel
                                                      tourism,” in which foreign individuals use the
Many European countries have opted for                plaintiff-friendly English courts to press libel
policies that restrict future immigration and, in     suits against critical journalists and scholars. If
some instances, asylum applications. A growing        adopted, the new law would place the burden of
number have taken steps to curtail customs            proof on the plaintiff rather than the defense in
identified with Islam that much of the population     libel cases. Press freedom advocates have

                                     REGIONAL PATTERNS
                                                     Free                Partly Free       Not Free
  Americas                                         24 (69%)               10 (28%)          1 (3%)
  Asia-Pacific                                     16 (41%)               15 (38%)          8 (21%)
  Central and Eastern Europe/Eurasia               13 (45%)                9 (31%)          7 (24%)
  Middle East and North Africa                      1 (6%)                 4 (22%)         13 (72%)
  Sub-Saharan Africa                                9 (18%)               21 (43%)         19 (39%)
  Western Europe                                   24 (96%)                1 (4%)           0 (0%)
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


described Britain’s current libel laws as a serious   were Egyptian; a few were international groups
menace to intellectual inquiry and the robust         (Freedom House was one of the latter). The
exchange of ideas.                                    authorities were insistent that the raids, which
                                                      included the seizure of files and computers, were
The United States endured a year of deep              legal and technical in nature. Government
political polarization and legislative gridlock.      officials emphasized and reemphasized that they
Despite the efforts of a bipartisan commission        believed human rights organizations had a role
and a select committee of lawmakers drawn             to play in a democratic Egypt. Their actions
equally from both major parties, the legislative      indicated otherwise.
branch and the White House were unable to
reach agreement on a plan to reduce the federal       In fact, the behavior of the Egyptian authorities,
deficit to manageable levels. Even as Congress        now and under Mubarak, reflects a deep-seated
and the president failed to agree on key              hostility to NGOs that support democracy and
economic measures, left-wing critics of the           human rights. This in turn points to a broader
country’s wealth disparities and ties between         institutional continuity between the current
politics and big business came together to launch     Egyptian state and the old regime that will
the Occupy Wall Street movement. Beginning            present major obstacles to democratic
with an encampment near the financial district in     development in the coming months and years,
New York City, the Occupy movement spread to          and similar dynamics may play out in other
cities across the country, with protesters            countries where authoritarian rule is being
camping out in parks or other public spaces for       defied.
indefinite periods. After several months,
municipal authorities moved to evict the              There were many heroes, many casualties, and
protesters, often through peaceful police actions     many martyrs to freedom’s cause in 2011. There
but in some cases using batons, tear gas, pepper      were also many extraordinary achievements.
spray, and arrests. Some observers voiced             Authoritarians who aspired to rule in perpetuity
criticism of the police for employing                 were toppled in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and
confrontational tactics and military-style            autocratic heads of state in Yemen and Syria
equipment when dealing with protesters.               seem likely to follow. But unlike in communist
                                                      Eastern Europe in 1989, today’s oppressive
In fulfillment of a pledge made during his            leaders have for the most part refused to go
election campaign, President Barack Obama             quietly, without a fight. Some have adopted a
revoked the policy known as “don’t ask, don’t         rule or ruin strategy that threatens to condemn
tell,” under which military personnel were not        those who would supplant them to failure.
asked about their sexual orientation, but openly
gay and lesbian individuals were barred from          Indeed, one of the great disappointments of the
military service. In another step toward              Arab Spring is that its principal lesson—that
observance of homosexual rights, the state of         people will eventually rise up against despotism
New York legalized gay marriage through               and injustice—has been almost universally
legislative action, joining a small number of         rejected by the world’s authoritarian powers.
other states that allow same-sex marriage or civil    Rather than responding to popular demands for
unions.                                               freedom with, at minimum, a gradual plan of
                                                      moderate reforms, despots in the Middle East
CONCLUSION                                            and elsewhere have either tightened the screws
                                                      or flatly excluded changes to the status quo.
Winning Freedom, Sustaining Democracy                 China fell into the first category with its frenzied
                                                      campaign against political dissent. So too did
As 2011 drew to a close, officials in Egypt made      Bashar al-Assad in Syria, with his repudiation of
headlines by conducting a series of raids on          talks with the opposition and a murderous
NGOs that monitor human rights and promote            campaign against peaceful protesters across the
democracy. Most of the targeted organizations         country. Russia was front and center in the status
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


quo camp, with its imposed Putin-Medvedev             in the NATO campaign that helped Libyan
leadership swap and shameless election-day            rebels overthrow the Qadhafi regime.
violations.
                                                      On the positive side, the Obama administration
Clearly, constructing successful democratic           has evolved from its early discomfort with
states in the Middle East and elsewhere               democracy as a foreign policy theme to a
represents a far more formidable challenge than       position where it episodically places its words,
was the case in Europe after the Berlin Wall          and in a few cases policy muscle, behind
came down. Adding to the difficulty is the role       struggles for freedom abroad. Despite the
of China and Russia, both major economic              unfortunate characterization that it was “leading
powers and permanent members of the UN                from behind,” America’s firmness in assisting
Security Council whose political elites have a        NATO’s Libyan campaign was an important
stake in the failure of new and aspiring              step. After initial hesitation, the administration
democracies. There is reason to believe that the      has also cautiously supported the process of
influence of these two powers could become            building democratic systems in Tunisia, Egypt,
magnified in the near future. As the European         and Libya. At the same time, it has too often
debt crisis deepened in 2011, there were              been hesitant in speaking out against
widespread reports that EU leaders were looking       antidemocratic backsliding, particularly in
to Beijing for bailout assistance. Likewise, the      Egypt. President Obama himself has made
Russian president traveled to several European        several important statements about America’s
capitals with a package of economic deals             commitment to democratic change around the
designed to help the beleaguered region in its        world, but he has failed to invoke the authority
time of need, with strings attached. Ultimately,      of the White House on specific cases. Instead it
China seems to have rejected serious                  is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who has
involvement in Europe’s woes, and nothing of          publicly addressed violations of human rights in
significance materialized from Medvedev’s             Russia, Hungary, and Turkey, and aligned the
initiative. But the very fact that the world’s most   administration with the forces of change in
successful league of democracies would                Burma and elsewhere where prospects for
countenance involving two of the world’s great        freedom’s growth have opened up.
authoritarian powers in its financial rescue is a
chilling commentary on the current state of both      If the past year has demonstrated that courage
the global economy and the democratic world’s         and sacrifice are essential to the achievement of
political morality, not to mention its survival       freedom, a somewhat different set of
instincts.                                            characteristics are required to build the
                                                      democratic infrastructure that will ensure long-
What of the United States? Can it be relied on to     term observance of political rights and civil
stand as the international beacon of freedom          liberties. These characteristics include the self-
given its present economic torpor and political       confidence needed to accept the complexities,
gridlock? American politics have sent                 and occasionally irresponsibility, of a free press;
conflicting signals over the past year. The notion    the fortitude to impose restrictions on oneself as
that it is time for America to shrug off its global   well as on one’s political opponents as part of
commitments has been increasingly posited by          the fight against corruption; and the perspicacity
foreign policy analysts and some political            to accept that the judiciary, police, and other
figures. A prominent candidate for the                critical institutions must function without
Republican presidential nomination has put            political interference.
himself squarely in favor of backing away from
the world’s problems, saying the United States        In far too many parts of the world, these
should simply “mind its own business.” Leading        qualities proved to be in short supply during
figures from both major political parties             2011. Thus in addition to singling out the full-
criticized the Obama administration for its role      fledged authoritarians for special attention, it is
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS


imperative to shine the spotlight on leaders who,
having come to power through legitimate
democratic means, have set about systematically
undermining the aspects of freedom that they
find inconvenient. The temptation to create a
quasi-authoritarian regime, in which standards
that reinforce the leader’s authority are
embraced and those that complicate his goals are
dispensed     with,     can    have     disastrous
consequences for democracies with shallow
roots. Prosecuting an opposition leader or
closing a television station can be the first steps
down a slippery slope, as witnessed in the
careers of Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chávez,
both of whom dragged seriously flawed political
systems into new depths of dysfunction and
stagnation.

Still, while the year 2010 ended on a pessimistic
note, with authoritarianism seemingly on the
march, the events of 2011 have presented more
hopeful      prospects.      Unaccountable      and
oppressive rulers have been put on notice that
their actions will not be tolerated forever. The
year of Arab uprisings has reminded the world
that ordinary people want freedom even in
societies where such aspirations have been
written off as futile. This is a lesson to which the
world’s leading democracies, especially the
United States, should pay special heed. It should
dispel free societies’ persistent doubts about the
strength and universal appeal of their institutions
and values. The opportunities that have been
opened up by brave people in Tunis and Cairo
should prompt a reenergized democratic world
to address the twin challenges of how
dictatorships can be overturned, and how stable
and durable fellow democracies can be built in
their place.




Eliza B. Young and Tyler Roylance assisted in
the preparation of this report.

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Informe 2012 freedom house

  • 1. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS by Arch Puddington The political uprisings that swept across the dissident writers to long terms in prison. In Arab world over the past year represent the most Russia, the state-controlled media bombarded significant challenge to authoritarian rule since domestic audiences with predictions of chaos the collapse of Soviet communism. In a region and instability as a consequence of the Arab that had seemed immune to democratic change, protests, with a clear message that demands for coalitions of activist reformers and ordinary political reform in Russia would have similarly citizens succeeded in removing dictators who catastrophic results. In other Eurasian countries had spent decades entrenching themselves in and in parts of Africa, the authorities went to power. In some cases, protest and upheaval was considerable lengths to suppress demonstrations followed by the beginnings of democratic and isolate the democratic opposition. institution building. At year’s end, two countries with unbroken histories of fraudulent polling, The authoritarian response to change in the Tunisia and Egypt, had conducted elections that Middle East had a significant impact on the state observers deemed competitive and credible, and of global freedom at year’s end. The findings of freedom of expression had gained momentum in Freedom in the World 2012, the latest edition of many Middle Eastern societies. Freedom House’s annual report on political rights and civil liberties, showed that slightly Unfortunately, the gains that were recorded in more countries registered declines than exhibited Tunisia, and to a considerably lesser extent in gains over the course of 2011. This marks the Egypt and Libya, were offset by more dubious sixth consecutive year in which countries with trends elsewhere in the region. Indeed, the declines outnumbered those with improvements. overthrow of autocrats in these countries provoked determined and often violent The continued pattern of global backsliding— responses in many others, most notably in Syria, especially in such critical areas as press where by year’s end the Assad dictatorship had freedom, the rule of law, and the rights of civil killed over 5,000 people in its efforts to crush society—is a sobering reminder that the widespread antigovernment protests. Similar if institutions that anchor democratic governance less bloody crackdowns took place in Bahrain cannot be achieved by protests alone. Yet if and Yemen. there is an overarching message for the year, it is one of hope and not of reversal. For the first This pattern of protest and repression—with an time in some years, governments and rulers who emphasis on the latter—was echoed elsewhere mistreated their people were on the defensive. in the world as news of the Arab uprisings This represents a welcome change from the spread beyond the Middle East and North dominant trends of just a year ago, when Africa. In China, the authorities responded to authoritarian powers repressed domestic critics events in Cairo’s Tahrir Square with a near- and dismissed mild objections from the hysterical campaign of arrests, incommunicado democratic world with brazen contempt. In detentions, press censorship, and stepped-up 2010, China conducted a bullying campaign control over the internet. The Chinese against the Nobel committee for honoring jailed Communist Party’s pushback, which aimed to dissident Liu Xiaobo, Russia imposed a second quash potential prodemocracy demonstrations prison term on former oil magnate Mikhail before they even emerged, reached a crescendo Khodorkovsky after a fraudulent judicial in December with the sentencing of a number of proceeding, and Egyptian president Hosni
  • 2. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS Mubarak’s National Democratic Party claimed Freedom’s Trajectory in 2011 to have won heavily rigged parliamentary elections with well over 80 percent of the seats. The number of countries exhibiting gains for the past year, 12, lagged somewhat behind the In 2011, by contrast, the signal events were the number with declines, 26. The most noteworthy overthrow of Mubarak, Tunisia’s Zine el- gains were in the Middle East—in Tunisia, Abidine Ben Ali, and Libya’s Mu’ammar al- Egypt, and Libya—and in three Asian Qadhafi; successful elections in Tunisia; and countries—Burma, Singapore, and Thailand. It democratic ferment throughout the Arab world. should be noted that despite their gains, Burma, Meanwhile, China’s perpetual campaign of Egypt, and Libya remained in the Not Free repression, directed at writers, lawyers, category. Moreover, while the Middle East journalists, religious believers, ethnic minorities, experienced the most significant improvements, and ordinary citizens who had spoken out it also registered the most declines, with a list of against injustice and state abuses, seemed only worsening countries that includes Bahrain, Iran, to show the staggering fears and weaknesses of a Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab regime that otherwise presents the image of a Emirates, and Yemen. Declines were also noted confident, globally integrated economic in a number of countries in Central and Eastern powerhouse. And in Russia, Vladimir Putin Europe and Eurasia, including Albania, faced his first serious political crisis, as election Azerbaijan, Hungary, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. fraud and the prospect of 12 more years without new leadership drew tens of thousands of Among other trends: protesters to the streets. • Glimmers of Hope for the Most Whether the events of 2011 will lead to a true Repressed: Burma, which has ranked wave of democratic revolution is uncertain. alongside North Korea as one of the world’s Tunisia was clearly the greatest beneficiary of most closed societies, experienced what the year’s changes. It experienced one of the many hope will become a major political largest single-year improvements in the history opening. The government of President Thein of the Freedom in the World report, rising from Sein has permitted more public discussion, among the worst-performing Middle Eastern tolerated a measure of press commentary, countries to achieve electoral democracy status freed longtime opposition leader Aung San and scores that place it roughly alongside such Suu Kyi, and cleared the path for her party’s Partly Free countries as Colombia and participation in elections. Another country Philippines. But much remains to be done, and that endured decades of brutal misrule, there are some questions about the positions of Libya, now has the potential for significant the new leaders on such crucial issues as gains thanks to the overthrow of al-Qadhafi. minority rights, freedom of belief, and freedom Cuba, also one of the world’s most of expression. Egypt also made significant gains, repressive countries, experienced a small but they have been overshadowed in many improvement linked to the limited reduction respects by the continued political dominance of of economic restrictions by the government the military, its hostility toward media critics, its of Raúl Castro. Unlike in Burma, however, campaign against human rights organizations, Cuba underwent no political liberalization. and its humiliating treatment of female protesters. In many other Arab countries, • (Some) Good News in Asia: In a region democracy movements have yet to reach even whose dominant power, China, maintains the initial milestone of forcing the resignation of the world’s most sophisticated and their longtime rulers. The perceived success or comprehensive system of authoritarian failure of these efforts will either continue to political control, the recent trend has been inspire similar changes in the rest of the world, largely positive. Aside from the or bolster authoritarian calls for “stability” at improvements in Burma, the past year was any price. notable for more open and competitive
  • 3. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS elections in Singapore, whose unique variant Ukraine, where a series of negative of “guided democracy” has been in place for developments was punctuated by the several decades. In fact, for the countries of conviction of opposition leader Yuliya Asia proper, practically every indicator Tymoshenko on dubious charges. In the past measured by Freedom in the World two years, Ukraine has moved from a status improved to some degree. of Free to Partly Free and suffered deterioration on most indicators measured • Sectarian Strife in the Middle East: The by Freedom House. Developments in intensified violence between Sunni and Turkey are also worrying, given the Shiite Muslims in Iraq as U.S. forces country’s role as a model for democracy in completed their withdrawal touched on a Muslim-majority countries and its broader threat posed by sectarianism to aspirations to regional leadership. While the democracy’s future in the region. government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Differences among various strains of Islam Erdoğan has instituted important reforms complicated the crackdown on mainly Shiite since coming to power, stepped-up arrests of protesters in Bahrain, and played a role in advocates for Kurdish rights and the the crisis in Syria, principally propelled by continued pursuit of the wide-ranging and President Bashar al-Assad’s desperate politically fraught Ergenekon conspiracy efforts to remain in power. Sunni-Shiite case, which has led to lengthy detentions rivalry also presents a serious threat to without charge, are both causes for concern. political stability in Lebanon, while in In Hungary, the government of Prime Egypt, anti-Christian sentiment flared into Minister Viktor Orbán, taking advantage of violence during the year, with notable help a parliamentary supermajority, has pushed from the military. through a new constitution and a raft of laws that could seriously weaken press freedom, • Long-Term Setbacks in Energy-Rich judicial independence, and a fair election Eurasia: The past year featured the process. And in South Africa, new media continuation of a decade-long trend of regulations and evidence of pervasive setbacks for the wealthiest and most corruption within the African National “modern” former Soviet countries: Russia, Congress leadership threaten to undermine Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. The level of the country’s past achievements in peaceful freedom fell further despite rising popular democratic change. demands for reform and warning signs from the Middle East. Indeed, beginning with the Results for 2011 “color revolutions” of 2003 to 05, authoritarians in Eurasia have consistently The number of countries designated by Freedom responded to freedom movements outside in the World as Free in 2011 stood at 87, their borders with intensified clampdowns at representing 45 percent of the world’s 195 home. Year-end protests in Moscow and polities and 3,016,566,100 people—43 percent violent labor unrest in Kazakhstan should of the global population. The number of Free remind the world that repression does not in countries did not change from the previous fact lead to stability. year’s survey. • Danger Signs for New Democracies: Until The number of countries qualifying as Partly recently, Ukraine, Hungary, South Africa, Free stood at 60, or 31 percent of all countries and Turkey were regarded as important assessed by the survey, and they were home to success stories for democratic development. 1,497,442,500 people, or 22 percent of the Now, increasingly, the democratic world’s total. The number of Partly Free credentials of each is coming under countries did not change from the previous year. question. The steepest decline in the institutions of freedom has taken place in A total of 48 countries were deemed Not Free,
  • 4. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS representing 24 percent of the world’s polities. One country, Nicaragua, was dropped from the The number of people living under Not Free electoral democracy roster. conditions stood at 2,453,231,500, or 35 percent of the global population, though it is important One country moved from Not Free to Partly to note that more than half of this number lives Free: Tunisia. One country, The Gambia, in just one country: China. The number of Not dropped from Partly Free to Not Free. Free countries increased by one from 2010 due to the inclusion for the first time of South Sudan, ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL TRENDS a new state that was given a Not Free designation. Middle East and North Africa: The Arab Spring’s Ambiguous Achievements Even in a region that was notorious for its FREE, PARTLY FREE, leaders’ disdain for honest government and civil NOT FREE liberties, Tunisia had long stood out for the thoroughness of its system of control and oppression. Its longtime strongman, Zine el- Freedom in the World applies one of three Abidine Ben Ali, had seemingly smothered all broad category designations to each of the significant sources of opposition. Dissenters had countries and territories included in the been jailed or exiled, press censorship was index: Free, Partly Free, and Not Free. scrupulously enforced, and the judiciary was under strict political control. This country A Free country is one where there is open seemed a highly unlikely setting for a political competition, a climate of respect democratic revolution. for civil liberties, significant independent civic life, and independent media. Yet it is Tunisia that has emerged as the most dramatic success story thus far in the series of A Partly Free country is one in which there popular uprisings that took place across the Arab is limited respect for political rights and world during 2011. It has been transformed from civil liberties. Partly Free states frequently a showcase for Arab autocracy to an electoral suffer from an environment of corruption, democracy whose new leaders have pledged weak rule of law, ethnic and religious strife, themselves to moderation, adherence to civil and a political landscape in which a single liberties, and the rule of law. The press is critical party enjoys dominance despite a certain and vibrant; there are practically no taboo degree of pluralism. subjects. Civil society has proliferated, and elements within the new leadership appear A Not Free country is one where basic committed to tackling the problem of pervasive political rights are absent, and basic civil corruption, though achieving such deep liberties are widely and systematically institutional reforms will likely require many denied. years of effort. For more on how these designations are Some gains were also made in Egypt and Libya, determined, see the Methodology section on but in both of these societies, the future page 33. prospects for democratic reform are still very much in doubt. In Egypt, governing authority shifted from the Mubarak regime to the Supreme The number of electoral democracies increased Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), a group by two and stands at 117. Three countries of military leaders who have dispensed justice achieved electoral democracy status due to through military tribunals, engaged in periodic elections that were widely regarded as crackdowns on critical media, raided the offices improvements: Niger, Thailand, and Tunisia. of civil society organizations, mistreated women
  • 5. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS activists, and engaged in violence against that were either introduced in the Knesset or Christians. While a protracted election process, signed into law and were seen by critics as still under way at year’s end, was conducted threats to freedom of speech. One measure that with an adherence to fair practices that stood in was enacted called for punishment of those who vivid contrast to the sham polls of the Mubarak support boycotts against Israel or its institutions, regime, the dominant forces in the new including universities and businesses located in parliament will be Islamist parties whose West Bank settlements. devotion to democracy is open to question. And while Libya has benefited greatly from the demise of the Qadhafi dictatorship, the country confronts an array of daunting political and WORST OF THE WORST security challenges, and has yet to hold its first elections. Of the 48 countries designated as Not Free, nine have been given the survey’s lowest In other regional countries, demands for freedom possible rating of 7 for both political rights have been met with stepped-up repression. In the and civil liberties. These worst-rated worst case, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad countries represent a narrow range of systems responded to widespread peaceful protests with and cultures. One—North Korea—is a one- a campaign of arrests, torture, and urban party, Marxist-Leninist regime. Two— fusillades that took the lives of an estimated Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—are Central 5,000 Syrians by year’s end. In Bahrain, a Asian countries ruled by dictators with roots prodemocracy movement consisting principally in the Soviet period. Sudan is ruled by a of members of the Shiite majority encountered leadership that has elements of both radical violent repression by the monarchy and Islamism and a traditional military junta. The intervention by the Saudi military. The remaining worst-rated states are Equatorial government’s tactics included mass arrests, Guinea, a highly corrupt regime with one of torture, and the use of military justice in cases of the worst human rights records in Africa; political activists. In Yemen, security forces Eritrea, an increasingly repressive police loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh killed state; Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy hundreds of civilians as Saleh repeatedly slipped with severe social controls; Syria, a out of agreements on a transfer of power. The dictatorship in the midst of a bloody authorities in Saudi Arabia intensified their crackdown; and Somalia, a failed state. The persecution of Shiites and other Muslim sects, two worst-rated territories in the survey are while Iran escalated its persecution of Tibet—under Chinese jurisdiction—and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and Western Sahara, which is controlled by civic leaders who were critical of regime Morocco. actions. Lebanon suffered a decline in civil liberties due to the violent treatment of An additional 8 countries and territories protesters and punitive measures against those received scores that were slightly above those demanding regime change in neighboring Syria. of the worst-ranked countries, with ratings of The United Arab Emirates also experienced a 6,7 or 7,6 for political rights and civil civil liberties decline after the government liberties: Belarus, Burma, Chad, China, Cuba, tightened restrictions on free speech and civil Laos, Libya, and South Ossetia. society and arrested those calling for political change. Asia-Pacific: Important Gains, Despite China Israel’s relations with Palestinians in the West and Conflict Bank and Gaza Strip, and with other countries in the region, worsened as the year’s tumult raised Over the past five years, the Asia-Pacific region expectations and shook old assumptions. Israel has been the only one to record steady gains in also faced condemnation for a series of measures the majority of indicators that are measured by
  • 6. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS Freedom in the World. Progress is especially largest democracy, showed increased room for noteworthy in the countries of Asia proper, peaceful demonstrations, particularly with the excluding the small Pacific island nations. The rise of an anticorruption movement that brought most impressive gains have come in the tens of thousands of people to the streets. Indian- institutions of electoral democracy—elections, administered Kashmir experienced a notable political parties, pluralism—and in freedom of improvement in the space for open public association. discussion amid growing use of social media and a drop in violence. The embrace of free institutions has taken place in the face of significant regional obstacles, The most significant gain occurred in Burma, including, most notably, the influence of China. which had endured decades of political In recent years China has accelerated its efforts repression under a military junta. What to project its power beyond its borders, and its observers interpreted as a major political Asian neighbors have been important targets of opening was initiated during 2011. In a series of this effort. Despite several incidents in which steps toward a more liberal domestic critics of the Chinese government and exiled environment, the leadership allowed opposition Chinese minorities encountered repression in leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her political party, Nepal, Indonesia, and Vietnam, the allure of the the National League for Democracy, to register so-called China model—combining state-led and compete in forthcoming by-elections, eased economic growth, a Leninist one-party political press censorship, and legalized political system, and strict control over the media—has protest. At the same time, many cautioned that it gained only modest traction in the region. was still unclear whether the changes in Burma Meanwhile, the Chinese leadership has were durable or simply cosmetic improvements demonstrated no serious interest in political by the regime. In Singapore, the system of liberalization at home, and has devoted managed democracy engineered by the former impressive resources to internet censorship, the prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, was loosened, suppression of minorities, and the elimination of and opposition candidates gained popular even oblique political dissent. In 2011, the support in national elections, though the system authorities carried out a major campaign of ensured that this did not translate into repression in the wake of the Arab uprisings by significantly increased representation in the censoring public discussion of the movement for parliament. Conditions also improved in Arab democratization, prosecuting or arbitrarily Thailand, whose deeply polarized political life detaining scores of social-media commentators had been dominated by riots and crippling and human rights lawyers, and strengthening the demonstrations for several years. A July election online censorship of domestic social-networking led to a peaceful transfer of power to the services. opposition party and the installation as prime minister of Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of Another regional challenge is the explosion of controversial former prime minister Thaksin civil and sectarian strife in South Asia. In Shinawatra. However, there has been some Afghanistan, violence continued unabated in backsliding on civil liberties since the end of 2011, with high-profile political assassinations November. and high civilian casualty rates. In Pakistan, there was growing discord over enforcement of Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia: the country’s blasphemy laws, punctuated by the Stability and Stagnation murders of Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer and Shahbaz Bhatti, the minister for minority affairs, The protests that roiled Moscow and other both of whom had criticized the blasphemy Russian cities in the wake of deeply flawed statutes. Bangladesh also suffered a decline due December parliamentary elections were stark to the ruling Awami League’s prosecution of reminders that no authoritarian leadership, no opposition politicians and efforts to muzzle matter how sophisticated its methods, is immune NGOs. On the other hand, India, the world’s to popular demands for change. While the
  • 7. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS immediate trigger for the mass demonstrations criticism for his apparent efforts to marginalize were widely circulated YouTube videos that potential opposition figures. suggested ballot-stuffing and other forms of election fraud, the protests also reflected Meanwhile, in several cases, the region’s most displeasure with the earlier announcement that repressive regimes declined still further. In Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Azerbaijan, the government of President Ilham Dmitry Medvedev had forged an agreement to Aliyev used force to break up demonstrations, swap positions at the end of Medvedev’s term in jailed opposition activists, tried to neutralize the 2012. The two men had failed to fulfill long- international press, and misused state power to standing promises to reform Russia’s corrupt, evict citizens from their homes as part of stagnant, and unresponsive government system, grandiose building schemes. Kazakhstan and the idea of Putin’s return for a third and suffered a decline due to the adoption of possibly fourth presidential term helped drive legislation that restricted religious belief. In ordinary Russians to the unprecedented December, conditions deteriorated further when demonstrations. the regime used violence in an effort to put down labor protests by oil workers. And in There are many questions about the ability of the Belarus, the regime of President Alyaksandr forces that led the postelection protests to Lukashenka held scores of political prisoners influence future politics in Russia. But clearly and adopted a series of bizarre policies—such as Russia is not alone in its vulnerability to popular outlawing public clapping in unison—to prevent discontent with authoritarian leadership. As the creative expressions of popular discontent over 20th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s political repression and economic decline. disintegration was marked at year’s end, most Eurasian countries were still subject to For most of Central and Eastern Europe and the autocratic rule of one variant or another. Baltics, by contrast, the year was notable for the Whereas prior to 2011 the “president for life” ability of most countries to weather the phenomenon was principally associated with the European economic crisis without major damage Middle East, it is today more likely to apply to to the basic institutions of democracy. At the the long-term leaders of the former Soviet same time, a number of countries in the region Union. remained highly vulnerable to precarious economies, the merging of business and political The authoritarian temptation poses a threat even interests, and corruption. Latvia, Bulgaria, in countries with recent histories of free- Romania, and the Western Balkans could face wheeling democracy. Thus Ukraine suffered a problems as Europe’s economic woes persist. major decline due to President Viktor Yanukovych’s moves to crush the political Hungary poses the most serious problem in opposition through a variety of antidemocratic Central Europe. The government of Viktor tactics, including the prosecution of opposition Orbán has taken advantage of a two-thirds political leader and former prime minister parliamentary majority to push through a new Yuliya Tymoshenko. Other “color revolution” and problematic constitution without adequate countries also faced problems. Kyrgyzstan, input from the opposition, and a series of laws recovering from a 2010 revolt against an that are widely seen as threats to press freedom, authoritarian president, held national elections judicial independence, and political pluralism. that were judged to be relatively fair and Albania experienced declines due to violence competitive. Nevertheless, deep divisions against demonstrators, flawed municipal lingered between the majority Kyrgyz and elections, and the failure of the courts to deal minority Uzbeks, and little progress was made in effectively with major corruption cases. On the bringing to justice those responsible for anti- positive side, Slovakia was credited for having Uzbek violence in mid-2010. In Georgia, adopted legislation designed to shield the press President Mikheil Saakashvili continued to face from political intimidation.
  • 8. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS The Balkans achieved mixed progress on the road to democratization and European Union (EU) accession. In July, Serbia’s government LARGEST NET CHANGES IN TOTAL finally surrendered the last of the 161 suspected AGGREGATE SCORE, 2007–2011 war criminals indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, Declines Improvements including Ratko Mladić, a leading figure in the 1995 Srebrenica massacre who had evaded The Gambia -24 Tunisia 35 arrest for 16 years. Mladić’s extradition met with disapproval from over 50 percent of Madagascar -19 Maldives 20 Serbia’s population, triggering sizeable protests. Mauritania -19 Bangladesh 18 Nationalism in much of the Balkan region continues to undermine regional reconciliation Bahrain -17 Pakistan 17 efforts and complicate relations with the EU. Pressures on free media increased across the Ethiopia -14 Tonga 16 Balkans, particularly in Macedonia, where an Nicaragua -13 Thailand 13 opposition-oriented television station and several newspapers were harassed and closed. Ukraine -13 Burma 11 Sub-Saharan Africa: Civil Society Under Afghanistan -11 Egypt 10 Pressure Yemen -11 Libya 9 A decade ago, sub-Saharan Africa was notable Burundi -10 Bhutan 9 for the steady if sometimes halting progress that its societies were making toward the establishment of democratic institutions. In This table shows the countries with the recent years, however, that progress has first largest net gains or losses in total aggregate stalled and then been somewhat reversed. The score (0–100) between Freedom in the year 2011 gave evidence of moderate decline, World 2008 and Freedom in the World with particular problems in countries where 2012. members of the opposition and civil society made pleas for change in emulation of protests See page 14 for these countries’ current in the Arab world. status and ratings. Five of the 10 countries that registered the most significant declines in the Freedom in the World the political opposition, the media, and civil report over the two-year period from 2010 to society in the run-up to the vote. 2011 were in Africa: The Gambia, Ethiopia, Burundi, Rwanda, and Djibouti. Likewise, over Five other regional countries experienced the five-year period from 2007 through 2011, declines for the year. Ethiopia continued a Africa as a region has exhibited declines in each decade-long trend of growing authoritarianism, of the topical subcategories measured by with the government of Prime Minister Meles Freedom in the World. Particularly substantial Zenawi making increased use of antiterrorism declines were recorded for rule of law and laws against the political opposition and freedom of association. journalists. In Sudan, the administration of President Omar al-Bashir engaged in stepped-up The Gambia experienced the most notable arrests of opposition leaders, banned a leading decline over the past year. Its status moved from political party, used violent tactics against Partly Free to Not Free due to a presidential demonstrators, and persecuted the media. In election that was judged neither free nor fair, Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni cracked and President Yahya Jammeh’s suppression of down on critical members of the press in a year
  • 9. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS that also featured flawed national elections, critics, the government’s use of state resources repressive tactics against protesters, and to influence the outcome of a referendum, and a continued harassment of the gay community. restructuring of the judiciary that was in blatant Malawi witnessed pressure against journalists violation of constitutional provisions. and violence against protesters as well as violations of academic freedom. Chávez himself was preoccupied with medical Antigovernment protests were also met with treatment, mostly carried out under less-than- repressive tactics in Djibouti, where the transparent conditions in Cuba, reportedly for intimidation of opposition political parties was prostate cancer. Chávez has announced that he followed by the election of President Ismail will seek reelection in 2012, but the campaign Omar Guelleh to a third term in office. promises to be more competitive than in the past due to the apparent unity of the opposition. Two countries with recent histories of political upheaval registered gains. Conditions in Côte Violent crime, much of it generated by drug- d’Ivoire improved somewhat after Alassane trafficking groups, continued to plague societies Ouattara assumed the presidency, ending months throughout the region, causing ripple effects in of civil strife associated with incumbent the political system and contributing to a president Laurent Gbagbo’s refusal to surrender growing trend toward the militarization of police power despite his defeat in 2010 elections. work. In Mexico, government institutions Gbagbo was later turned over to the remained unable to protect ordinary citizens, International Criminal Court for prosecution. journalists, and elected officials in many areas Niger experienced a major improvement in its from organized crime. Mexican journalism in political rights rating due to credible national certain regions remains shackled by drug-gang and local elections that marked the end of more intimidation, with some editors significantly than a year of military rule. altering coverage to avoid violent repercussions. In Venezuela, the kidnapping for ransom of Americas: Continuity Despite Populist Threat professional baseball catcher Wilson Ramos stood out as a vivid reminder of the violent Over the past decade, left-wing populist leaders criminality that more commonly affects the have risen to power in a number of Latin population at large. In Brazil, the government’s American countries, causing some to predict that efforts to bring down crime in the most troubled the authoritarian model established by urban districts in advance of the 2014 World Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez would Cup soccer tournament have been met by come to dominate the politics of the region. In determined resistance from organized gangs. fact, authoritarian populism has remained a minority phenomenon, as most societies have In other developments, Guatemala registered an embraced the model of private-sector growth, improvement in political rights due to progress social-welfare initiatives, and adherence to made by an international commission set up to democratic standards established by leaders in investigate impunity and corruption in the Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. country’s institutions. Puerto Rico suffered a civil liberties decline stemming from reports of Nevertheless, events in 2011 demonstrated that widespread police misconduct and brutality. quasi-authoritarian populism still stands as a threat to the region’s political stability. In the Western Europe and North America: most serious case, Nicaragua suffered a steep Economic Crisis, Protests, and Civil Liberties decline in political rights due to irregularities in advance of and during the presidential election, In the face of the most serious economic crisis in which gave Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega the postwar period, the countries of Western another term in office. Likewise, Ecuador Europe and North America maintained their suffered a decline due to President Rafael traditionally high level of respect for democratic Correa’s intensified campaign against media standards and civil liberties. This was even the
  • 10. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS case in countries that were compelled to make finds offensive. In 2011, women in France and major cuts to social-welfare provisions in Belgium were arrested in cases related to the response to high levels of indebtedness. wearing of ultraconservative Muslim female Throughout Europe, citizens mounted massive attire. demonstrations to protest policies, often dictated by the EU and the International Monetary Fund, Also during the year, observers raised doubts that called for fiscal austerity and the removal of about the durability of the current Turkish various protections for many workers and political model, in which a ruling party with industries. By and large, the demonstrations moderate Islamist roots has committed itself to were peaceful and the police response the norms of liberal democracy. While the nonviolent. The exception was Greece, where Justice and Development Party (AKP) was anarchists frequently set fires and threw credited with instituting important reforms projectiles at police, and the police responded during its early years in power, its recent with batons and tear gas. behavior has triggered concern among supporters of press freedom and civil liberties. It is unlikely that Europe’s democratic standards In the past few years, thousands of people have will suffer serious setbacks in the wake of the been arrested on charges of involvement with ongoing debt crisis. Nonetheless, the region does Kurdish terrorist organizations or participation face major challenges. A number of European in an alleged military conspiracy to overthrow countries are already confronted by problems the government. Those detained include associated with the influx of immigrants from journalists, scholars, and even defense lawyers. the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, and have shown little willingness to devise rational and Britain was rocked first by a series of urban humane policies toward their integration. riots, which many felt were handled poorly by Economic decline could well exacerbate the authorities, and then by a “phone hacking” polarization over immigration policy, as case in which members of the tabloid press were migrants seek refuge from upheavals in the Arab accused of widespread abuse of privacy rights in world and unemployment levels in some pursuit of sensationalistic stories about European countries are at record levels. Until celebrities and, most controversially, crime recently a marginal phenomenon, the parties of victims. At the same time, the coalition the anti-immigrant right emerged as major government of Conservatives and Liberal forces in Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, France, Democrats indicated that a law aimed at Finland, and the Netherlands during the past reforming the country’s punitive libel laws decade, and they occasionally achieve voter would be introduced in 2012. The measure is support of over 20 percent. meant to deal with the phenomenon of “libel tourism,” in which foreign individuals use the Many European countries have opted for plaintiff-friendly English courts to press libel policies that restrict future immigration and, in suits against critical journalists and scholars. If some instances, asylum applications. A growing adopted, the new law would place the burden of number have taken steps to curtail customs proof on the plaintiff rather than the defense in identified with Islam that much of the population libel cases. Press freedom advocates have REGIONAL PATTERNS Free Partly Free Not Free Americas 24 (69%) 10 (28%) 1 (3%) Asia-Pacific 16 (41%) 15 (38%) 8 (21%) Central and Eastern Europe/Eurasia 13 (45%) 9 (31%) 7 (24%) Middle East and North Africa 1 (6%) 4 (22%) 13 (72%) Sub-Saharan Africa 9 (18%) 21 (43%) 19 (39%) Western Europe 24 (96%) 1 (4%) 0 (0%)
  • 11. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS described Britain’s current libel laws as a serious were Egyptian; a few were international groups menace to intellectual inquiry and the robust (Freedom House was one of the latter). The exchange of ideas. authorities were insistent that the raids, which included the seizure of files and computers, were The United States endured a year of deep legal and technical in nature. Government political polarization and legislative gridlock. officials emphasized and reemphasized that they Despite the efforts of a bipartisan commission believed human rights organizations had a role and a select committee of lawmakers drawn to play in a democratic Egypt. Their actions equally from both major parties, the legislative indicated otherwise. branch and the White House were unable to reach agreement on a plan to reduce the federal In fact, the behavior of the Egyptian authorities, deficit to manageable levels. Even as Congress now and under Mubarak, reflects a deep-seated and the president failed to agree on key hostility to NGOs that support democracy and economic measures, left-wing critics of the human rights. This in turn points to a broader country’s wealth disparities and ties between institutional continuity between the current politics and big business came together to launch Egyptian state and the old regime that will the Occupy Wall Street movement. Beginning present major obstacles to democratic with an encampment near the financial district in development in the coming months and years, New York City, the Occupy movement spread to and similar dynamics may play out in other cities across the country, with protesters countries where authoritarian rule is being camping out in parks or other public spaces for defied. indefinite periods. After several months, municipal authorities moved to evict the There were many heroes, many casualties, and protesters, often through peaceful police actions many martyrs to freedom’s cause in 2011. There but in some cases using batons, tear gas, pepper were also many extraordinary achievements. spray, and arrests. Some observers voiced Authoritarians who aspired to rule in perpetuity criticism of the police for employing were toppled in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and confrontational tactics and military-style autocratic heads of state in Yemen and Syria equipment when dealing with protesters. seem likely to follow. But unlike in communist Eastern Europe in 1989, today’s oppressive In fulfillment of a pledge made during his leaders have for the most part refused to go election campaign, President Barack Obama quietly, without a fight. Some have adopted a revoked the policy known as “don’t ask, don’t rule or ruin strategy that threatens to condemn tell,” under which military personnel were not those who would supplant them to failure. asked about their sexual orientation, but openly gay and lesbian individuals were barred from Indeed, one of the great disappointments of the military service. In another step toward Arab Spring is that its principal lesson—that observance of homosexual rights, the state of people will eventually rise up against despotism New York legalized gay marriage through and injustice—has been almost universally legislative action, joining a small number of rejected by the world’s authoritarian powers. other states that allow same-sex marriage or civil Rather than responding to popular demands for unions. freedom with, at minimum, a gradual plan of moderate reforms, despots in the Middle East CONCLUSION and elsewhere have either tightened the screws or flatly excluded changes to the status quo. Winning Freedom, Sustaining Democracy China fell into the first category with its frenzied campaign against political dissent. So too did As 2011 drew to a close, officials in Egypt made Bashar al-Assad in Syria, with his repudiation of headlines by conducting a series of raids on talks with the opposition and a murderous NGOs that monitor human rights and promote campaign against peaceful protesters across the democracy. Most of the targeted organizations country. Russia was front and center in the status
  • 12. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS quo camp, with its imposed Putin-Medvedev in the NATO campaign that helped Libyan leadership swap and shameless election-day rebels overthrow the Qadhafi regime. violations. On the positive side, the Obama administration Clearly, constructing successful democratic has evolved from its early discomfort with states in the Middle East and elsewhere democracy as a foreign policy theme to a represents a far more formidable challenge than position where it episodically places its words, was the case in Europe after the Berlin Wall and in a few cases policy muscle, behind came down. Adding to the difficulty is the role struggles for freedom abroad. Despite the of China and Russia, both major economic unfortunate characterization that it was “leading powers and permanent members of the UN from behind,” America’s firmness in assisting Security Council whose political elites have a NATO’s Libyan campaign was an important stake in the failure of new and aspiring step. After initial hesitation, the administration democracies. There is reason to believe that the has also cautiously supported the process of influence of these two powers could become building democratic systems in Tunisia, Egypt, magnified in the near future. As the European and Libya. At the same time, it has too often debt crisis deepened in 2011, there were been hesitant in speaking out against widespread reports that EU leaders were looking antidemocratic backsliding, particularly in to Beijing for bailout assistance. Likewise, the Egypt. President Obama himself has made Russian president traveled to several European several important statements about America’s capitals with a package of economic deals commitment to democratic change around the designed to help the beleaguered region in its world, but he has failed to invoke the authority time of need, with strings attached. Ultimately, of the White House on specific cases. Instead it China seems to have rejected serious is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who has involvement in Europe’s woes, and nothing of publicly addressed violations of human rights in significance materialized from Medvedev’s Russia, Hungary, and Turkey, and aligned the initiative. But the very fact that the world’s most administration with the forces of change in successful league of democracies would Burma and elsewhere where prospects for countenance involving two of the world’s great freedom’s growth have opened up. authoritarian powers in its financial rescue is a chilling commentary on the current state of both If the past year has demonstrated that courage the global economy and the democratic world’s and sacrifice are essential to the achievement of political morality, not to mention its survival freedom, a somewhat different set of instincts. characteristics are required to build the democratic infrastructure that will ensure long- What of the United States? Can it be relied on to term observance of political rights and civil stand as the international beacon of freedom liberties. These characteristics include the self- given its present economic torpor and political confidence needed to accept the complexities, gridlock? American politics have sent and occasionally irresponsibility, of a free press; conflicting signals over the past year. The notion the fortitude to impose restrictions on oneself as that it is time for America to shrug off its global well as on one’s political opponents as part of commitments has been increasingly posited by the fight against corruption; and the perspicacity foreign policy analysts and some political to accept that the judiciary, police, and other figures. A prominent candidate for the critical institutions must function without Republican presidential nomination has put political interference. himself squarely in favor of backing away from the world’s problems, saying the United States In far too many parts of the world, these should simply “mind its own business.” Leading qualities proved to be in short supply during figures from both major political parties 2011. Thus in addition to singling out the full- criticized the Obama administration for its role fledged authoritarians for special attention, it is
  • 13. FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2012: THE ARAB UPRISINGS AND THEIR GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS imperative to shine the spotlight on leaders who, having come to power through legitimate democratic means, have set about systematically undermining the aspects of freedom that they find inconvenient. The temptation to create a quasi-authoritarian regime, in which standards that reinforce the leader’s authority are embraced and those that complicate his goals are dispensed with, can have disastrous consequences for democracies with shallow roots. Prosecuting an opposition leader or closing a television station can be the first steps down a slippery slope, as witnessed in the careers of Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chávez, both of whom dragged seriously flawed political systems into new depths of dysfunction and stagnation. Still, while the year 2010 ended on a pessimistic note, with authoritarianism seemingly on the march, the events of 2011 have presented more hopeful prospects. Unaccountable and oppressive rulers have been put on notice that their actions will not be tolerated forever. The year of Arab uprisings has reminded the world that ordinary people want freedom even in societies where such aspirations have been written off as futile. This is a lesson to which the world’s leading democracies, especially the United States, should pay special heed. It should dispel free societies’ persistent doubts about the strength and universal appeal of their institutions and values. The opportunities that have been opened up by brave people in Tunis and Cairo should prompt a reenergized democratic world to address the twin challenges of how dictatorships can be overturned, and how stable and durable fellow democracies can be built in their place. Eliza B. Young and Tyler Roylance assisted in the preparation of this report.