2. •Conceived by Frank Notestein 1945.
•Model of population change based
upon effects of economic development.
•Based on the experience of the
Western world, it was used for
decades as a model to predict what
should/would happen to developing
All countries pass through four or five
stages to a state of maturity.
4. Stage 1: High steady birth rates and
high but fluctuating death rates.
Therefore, high natural increase rate.
Two rates are approximately equal. The
death rate fluctuates due to war and
disease. Low income, agricultural
Stage 2: Dramatic decline in death
rates; high birth rates. Onset of
industrialization and related health and
6. Stage 3: Low death rates; declining
birth rates, due to voluntary decisions
to reduce family size aided by improved
contraception. Related to improved
standard of living. Natural increase rate
Stage 4: Low steady death and birth
rates. Low natural increase rate, similar
to Stage 1.
Stage 5: Low death rates; declining
8. So, in summary, the argument that is
extracted from the demographic
transition model is that since the
developed countries underwent a dramatic
change that resulted in lower rates of
population growth, if only the developing
nations could do the same their fertility
rates would also fall.
“Development is the best form of
10. However ….
This demographic transition has not
occurred uniformly geographically.
Some areas are in Stage 5 and some areas
are in Stage 2.
Times have changed since the developed
world went through the demographic
11. Therefore, can we use the demographic
transition model as a predictive tool? Can
we assume that the passage from 3rd to
4th stage will happen over time?
From the evidence of modern experience,
it seems “no”.
12. Conditions are different.
Prospects for industrialization are
Reductions in death rates are a result in
some countries of diffusion of
technology from the developed world.
It’s one thing to introduce death control,
another to introduce successful ways to
reduce birth rates
13. There is evidence to suggest that the
fertility rates are declining as in the 3rd
and fourth stages, but for very
This is known as the Fertility Transition
14. The Fertility Transition Theory
Fertility is declining in the less developed
world at a rate which exceeds the rate of
decline that was experienced in the
It seems to be related directly to the
extent to which modern contraceptives
Formal education is not a prerequisite for
for using contraception.
15. Information about contraception is
widespread due to mass media.
Appeal for large families has fallen due to
rising status of women, obvious problems
associated with rapid and large population
increased for the family and the state
(e.g., pressure on agricultural land).
16. In summary, the Fertility Transition
Theory asserts that while economic
development can create a climate
conducive to reductions in fertility, it is a
change in cultural attitude about large
families and a willingness to use
contraception that is the key, along with
the availability of the contraception.
17. In short, development is not the best form
of contraceptive; rather contraceptives
are the best form of contraceptive.
But what are some of the obstacles to the
more widespread use of contraception?
18. Opposition to birth control and family
The manufacture and distribution and
education about their use of
contraceptives is expensive.
Religion can block birth control
programs: Catholic Church and some
19. Low status of women: lack of political
and economic rights; lack of access to
Preference for male children in some
Fertility rates are lower in urban
societies, and much of the developing
world is still rural.