Lattice Energy LLC - Excessive reliance on renewable energy sources can threaten reliability of electricity grids - April 19 2017

April 19, 2017 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2017 All rights reserved 1
Contact: 1-312-861-0115 Chicago, Illinois USA
lewisglarsen@gmail.com
Lewis Larsen
President and CEO
April 19, 2017
Lattice Energy LLC
Commercializing LENRs as safe source of radiation-free nuclear energy
Week of January 24, 2017 - that was when the
lights nearly went out in Germany because
bad weather slashed wind & solar power
Last available reserve fossil power plant
was brought online to prevent a
catastrophic power blackout

Credit: Getty images
Ongoing climate change disrupts normal weather patterns
If you believe that wind and solar can someday 100% replace
sources of baseload and dispatchable power generation
then think again, because they simply can’t --- ever
Extended periods of cloudy skies can be correlated with low or no wind

✓ Weather issues in Germany during Dec. 2016 and Jan. 2017 have
revealed very serious weaknesses in long-term Energiewende plan
✓ For the foreseeable future, adequate baseload and dispatchable
power generation capacity will be required to insure 99+ % grid
availability and robust stability despite episodic weather problems
✓ 100% renewable energy sources + enormous grid storage capacity
would be too expensive and cause unreliability; not a future solution
✓ Need to determine the optimal mix of wind & solar, baseload and
dispatchable power generation capacity, and grid electrical storage
capacity that results in lowest-possible overall system cost consistent
with reliable grids having 99+% uptime and great long-term stability
✓ Radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) could
potentially provide CO2-free future distributed alternative power
generation technology vs. more fission and/or fossil fueled plants
Nuclear and/or fossil power are essential for energy security
Baseload and dispatchable power plants insure reliable operation of grids
Excessive % of intermittent renewable energy sources can reduce grid reliability

Energiewende is German word for “energy transition”
Shift German energy system from fossil fuels and fission to renewables
All coal-fired & fission power plants will close by 2040; 60% renewables by 2050
https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/
✓ Ambitious program aims to shift into renewable
energy sources in Germany’s electricity sector
✓ Heavy emphasis on solar photovoltaic (PV) and
wind power for renewable energy technologies
✓ Support for program was legislated back in 2010
✓ After 2011 disaster with Fukushima reactors in
Japan, German government eliminated fission as
bridging technology in path to 80+% renewables
✓ Shut-down 9 remaining fission reactors by 2022;
then phase-out all coal powered plants by 2040
✓ Ultimate goal is 60% of electricity production via
renewables by 2050 and, in parallel, reduce total
greenhouse gas emissions from electricity sector
by 80 - 95% relative to earlier levels back in 1990

March 2, 2016: Lattice published PowerPoint shown below
Wind & solar variability stops 100% replacement of fossil and/or nuclear
https://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-climate-change-can-reduce-wind-and-solar-power-output-also-need-dispatchable-generation-march-2-2016

Dec. 2016: bad weather slashed German renewable power
Two large shortfalls in wind & solar generation lasted 50 and 100 hours
Deficit covered by nuclear baseload and fossil-fueled dispatchable power sources
Renewablesshortfall
Renewablesshortfall
“Such weather events can
persist for several days. The
first lull lasted about 100 hours,
the second about 50 hours.”
Two large shortfalls in renewables power generation occurred in just one month
~65
GW
~60
GW

“The Great Smog of 1952. Sorry, 2017”
Credit: Toby Melville/Reuters
Jan. 2017: days of fog and no wind caused London smog
Weather events like this reduce both solar and wind power generation
“A look at last week’s pollution provides some
clues – other factors were involved in London’s
atmospheric woes this winter. One couldn’t be
more simple: the weather. ‘Meteorological
conditions have been stagnant for several weeks,’
said Martyn Chipperfield, professor of
atmospheric chemistry at Leeds University. ‘There
has been a stable, blocking anticyclone resting
over Britain and that has trapped air over the
country. There has been nothing to blow the
pollution away. Worse, any winds that we have had
have come from the south east, from Europe
where the air is already polluted. Our prevailing
winds usually blow in from the Atlantic bringing in
fairly fresh air. Instead, all we have had is the odd
puff of already polluted air’.”
The Guardian on January 29, 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/pollution-air-quality-london-environment
London’s smog and
fog was part of same
weather system that
slashed Germany’s
wind & solar power
generation during the
week of Jan. 24, 2017
Jan. 24 Jan. 25

Week of Jan. 16 - 22, 2017: Europe was becalmed for 7 days
“On 16th January the wind died completely across the UK and much of Europe”
http://euanmearns.com/uk-grid-january-2017-and-the-perfect-storm/
“UK grid January 2017 and The Perfect Storm”
By Euan Mearns in Energy Matters on March 13, 2017
“Figure 1. UK wind generation, January 2017. On the 16 of January the
wind died completely for a week.”
“Despite having 25 GW of wind and solar installed (50% of
UK peak demand), these provided only 4% of UK supply
during the windless week commencing 16th January 2017.”

Jan. 2017: dispatchable power saved the day for the U.K.
“UK can no longer afford to see more of its large thermal stations close”
http://euanmearns.com/uk-grid-january-2017-and-the-perfect-storm/
“UK grid January 2017 and The Perfect Storm”
By Euan Mearns in Energy Matters on March 13, 2017
“Concern about the integrity of the UK grid is borne out of the
closure of 17.7 GW of coal fired power between 2004 and 2016
and its replacement with 14.4 GW of wind and 10.7 GW of solar.
But the UK still has about 49 GW of dispatchable capacity left –
nuclear, ccgt, coal, biomass, and hydro – that was enough to see
us comfortably through January 2017.”
“One lesson from this is that the UK carried very large surplus
generating capacity before the closures began and there was no
doubt a cost associated with that. Since the closures, spare
capacity is now thin and we got through January with comfort
only because all CCGT and coal stations were operational which
is not always the case … It seems to be clear that the UK can no
longer afford to see more of its large thermal stations close.”

Jan. 24, 2017: German grid struggled with demand & stability
Same type of weather problems for renewables occurred again in January
Rheinische Post: last reserve power plant was brought online to avert a blackout
Power Generation and Demand, Germany January 15 - 31, 2017
~ 70 GW
shortfall on
January 24
Renewablesshortfall
January 24
http://www.rp-online.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsches-stromnetz-schrammt-am-blackout-vorbei-aid-1.6636489
Original main title of news story: “Deutsches Stromnetz schrammt am Blackout vorbei”
Composite translation of text: “German electricity network barely avoids a blackout”
Note: when this screenshot was taken, online
app was malfunctioning in that calendar dates
shown on lower x-axis do not display properly

Period of little sun & wind was from mid-Jan to mid-Feb
~ 50 GW shortfall of renewables vs. total demand lasted about a month
Cost of battery storage to cover > 50 GW shortfall for 1 month would be very high
Power Generation and Demand, Germany January 2 - February 25, 2017
~ 50 GW
shortfall
Renewables
shortfall
100% renewable energy sources + enormous grid storage capacity would
be far too expensive and cause unreliability; not really a viable future solution
January 24

Feb. 10, 2017: Lattice published PowerPoint shown below
Weather events in Dec. 2016 revealed serious weakness in Energiewende
http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-adequate-reasonably-priced-dispatchable-power-generation-critical-to-national-energy-security-feb-10-2017

Feb. 27, 2017: RP story revealed existence of near-blackout
Rheinische Post news: “… renewables could not even offer five percent”
Lights nearly went out in Germany when bad weather slashed solar & wind power
“Too little wind and sun - German electricity network barely avoids a blackout”
By C. Longin and M. Plück in Rheinische Post on February 27, 2017
According to Michael Vassiliadis, head of IG Bergbauchemie
Energie, the situation on 24 January was critical: on that day,
energy companies and network operators could only have been
able to maintain the electricity supply with great difficulty, the
trade unionist told journalists at an event in Haltern am
See. Despite the problems, the Germans demanded more than
80 gigawatts of power, as on other days. "The renewables could
not even offer five percent," said Vassiliadis.
Note: Michael Vassiliadis is Chairman of Industriegewerkschaft Bergbau,
Chemie, Energie - IG BCE (large German trade union HQ in Hannover)
Translation of original German to English by Google; text below is directly quoted from news article

Feb. 27, 2017: RP story revealed existence of near-blackout
No blackout occurred because FNA “took the last reserve power plant”
“Too little wind and sun - German electricity network barely avoids a blackout”
By C. Longin and M. Plück in Rheinische Post on February 27, 2017
Also, importing electricity was not an option. At that time, France
had enormous difficulties in meeting the needs of the cold wave
itself. Because many French heat with electricity. As early as the
middle of January, the government had launched an anti-cold plan in
Paris and used crises in the affected prefectures. A blackout
escaped the French only because the inspection of several fission
reactors was postponed. France had enough to do with herself.
According to Vassiliadis, the fact that a blackout did not take place
there was only because the German energy suppliers "also took the
last reserve power plant". "Coal, gas and nuclear power kept the
country almost in the first place under the electric current." On
request, the Federal Network Agency [FNA] did not comment on the
network overload.
Translation of original German to English by Google; text below is directly quoted from news article

“DEEP DECARBONIZATION OF THE ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR
INSIGHTS FROM RECENT LITERATURE”
JESSE D. JENKINS AND SAMUEL THERNSTROM
MARCH 2017
March 2017: Jenkins & Thernstrom published review paper
“Low-Carbon dispatchable baseload resources are indispensable”
http://innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/EIRP-Deep-Decarb-Lit-Review-Jenkins-Thernstrom-March-2017.pdf
Quoting from their conclusions; this is a significant must-read paper:
“There is strong agreement in the recent literature that deep
decarbonization --- reaching zero or near-zero CO2 emissions --- is best
achieved by harnessing a diverse portfolio of low-Carbon resources.”
“In particular, low-Carbon dispatchable baseload resources such as
nuclear, biomass, hydropower, or CCS, are an indispensable part of any
least-cost pathway to deep decarbonization. Recent literature indicates
that removing this dispatchable base from the generation portfolio,
relying instead on variable renewable energy resources such as wind
and solar, would significantly increase the cost and technical challenge
of decarbonizing power systems.”
“In addition, reaching zero emissions requires a significantly different
capacity mix than achieving comparatively more modest goals.”

“ A BRAVE NEW WORLD: DEEP DECARBONIZATION OF ELECTRICITY GRIDS”
SPECIAL EDITION: ANNUAL ENERGY PAPER
October 19, 2015
Oct. 2015: J.P. Morgan shows “balanced” Energiewende plan
Alter plan to: “nuclear to meet 35% of demand [by reopening] idle plants”
https://www.jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320691236591.pdf
Quoting text and chart directly from page #9 of J.P. Morgan paper:
“Is there a cheaper way to do it? A balanced system, with nuclear power”
“Nuclear Power. We analyze a balanced system as well: Germany maintains the
wind, solar, hydro and biomass it now has; relies on nuclear to meet 35% of demand
by turning back on some of its idle plants; and uses a 50/50 natural gas/coal mix for
the remainder. Balanced results are shown in the last row, along with no-storage and
storage scenarios for Energiewende, and the current system … The balanced system
we analyzed achieves cost and CO2 reductions at a much lower cost per metric ton
than Energiewende … but only if EIA nuclear cost projections are accurate.”

Baseload and dispatchable generation will always be needed
Nuclear power could be key component in long-term future of energy
✓ Given the inherent variability in power output of renewable CO2-free energy
sources, adequate amounts of baseload and dispatchable power generation
capacity are an unavoidable necessity and key asset for maintaining modern
high-availability electricity grids that provide customers with 99+ % uptime. This
key requirement would continue to exist even if --- sometime in the near future ---
distributed wind and/or solar renewables became substantially less expensive
sources than baseload nuclear fission or dispatchable fossil-fueled power plants
✓ From a societal risk management perspective, maintaining adequate baseload
and dispatchable generation capacity would be a cost-effective investment that
could also help prevent an unimaginable economic catastrophe in unlikely event
of a rare “Black Swan” volcanic dust eruption that could sharply reduce both
sunlight and wind speeds on Earth’s surface for months or even several years
✓ Having adequate baseload and dispatchable generation capacity is thus an
invaluable asset in maintaining 99+% reliable electricity grids and national
energy security. It would also be prudent to reduce future CO2 emissions from
power generation. This will eventually happen anyway because at current rates
of consumption, BP estimates that fossil fuels will be exhausted in < 114 years
✓ Nuclear plants can provide baseload and dispatchable power and do not emit
CO2. Like it or not, major expansion of nuclear power generation is probably
inevitable and could be important component in long-term future of power grids

Reliable electric grids require baseload & dispatchable power
Need some % of grid power generation not subject to vagaries of Nature
Grids with 100% renewables not reliable - even with grid-scale flow batteries
✓ Wind and solar power generation technologies, while decreasing greatly in cost,
are inherently intermittent sources of thermal and/or electrical power. Local wind
speeds and intensity of sunlight can vary quite dramatically intra-day or from week
to week. Importantly, presently ongoing climate change, whatever its cause may
be, is making future weather patterns vastly more variable than before, not less
✓ Many naively believe that massive deployment of giant grid-scale flow batteries
could bridge supply-demand gap when weather reduces electricity produced by
renewable energy sources. Well, that strategy might work for a few hours or a day,
but certainly not for days, weeks, or even months. Installing enough grid storage
capacity to insure electricity demand could be fully supplied for long time periods
with little curtailment would be incredibly expensive and grossly uneconomic vs.
less costly alternative grids that also utilize some % of nuclear and/or fossil power
✓ What would be desirable is new type of energy-dense, green power generation
technology that is CO2-free, dispatchable, very scalable from kilowatts to megawatt
-scale baseload systems, and utilizes manufacturing technologies that can exploit
the experience curve effect to further reduce price of electricity for consumers
✓ LENR technology being developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, Nissan,
and Lattice Energy could provide new alternative in future power generation mix

Body politics in Germany and Japan reject fission power
What if there was ‘green’ type of nuclear power vastly safer than fission?
Revolutionary ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs)
Radiation-free LENRs transmute stable elements to other stable elements

Image credit: co-author Domenico Pacifici
From: “Nanoscale plasmonic interferometers for multispectral, high-throughput biochemical sensing”
J. Feng et al., Nano Letters pp. 602 - 609 (2012)
Laura 13
Revolutionary ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs)
Radiation-free LENRs transmute stable elements to other stable elements
Fission and fusion Safe green LENRsEvolution of nuclear technology

Entangled particles - Credit: Getty Images
LENRs are only energy technology on foreseeable horizon that
could potentially enable future deep decarbonization of
both electric power generation and transportation
sectors at reasonable total economic $ cost
Future deep decarbonization of both the
electric power generation and transportation sectors
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, and Nissan Motors
now conducting R&D programs and developing LENRs
to someday replace the internal combustion engine

Comparison of LENRs to fission and fusion
Fission, fusion, and LENRs all involve controlled release of nuclear binding energy
(heat) for power generation: no CO2 emissions; scale of energy release is MeVs
(nuclear regime) > 1,000,000x energy density of chemical energy power sources
Heavy-element fission: involves shattering heavy nuclei to release stored nuclear binding
energy; requires massive shielding and containment structures to handle radiation; major
radioactive waste clean-up issues and costs; limited sources of fuel: today, almost entirely
Uranium; Thorium-based fuel cycles now under development; heavy element U-235 (fissile
isotope fuel) + neutrons  complex array of lower-mass fission products (some are very
long-lived radioisotopes) + energetic gamma radiation + energetic neutron radiation + heat
Fusion of light nuclei: involves smashing light nuclei together to release stored nuclear
binding energy; present multi-billion $ development efforts (e.g., ITER, NIF, other Tokamaks)
focusing mainly on D+T fusion reaction; requires massive shielding/containment structures
to handle 14 MeV neutron radiation; minor radioactive waste clean-up $ costs vs. fission
Two key sources of fuel: Deuterium and Tritium (both are heavy isotopes of Hydrogen)
Most likely to be developed commercial fusion reaction involves the following:
D + T  He-4 (helium) + neutron + heat (total energy yield 17.6 MeV; ~14.1 MeV in neutron)
distinguishing feature is neutron production
via electroweak reaction; neutron capture on fuel + gamma conversion to IR + decays [β- , α]
releases nuclear binding energy; early-stage technology; no emission of energetic neutron
or gamma radiation and no long-lived radioactive waste products; LENR systems would not
require massive, expensive radiation shielding or containment structures  much lower $$$
cost; many possible fuels --- any element/isotope that can capture LENR neutrons; involves
neutron-catalyzed transmutation of fuels into heavier stable elements; process creates heat
Ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs):
Fusion of light nuclei:
Heavy element fission:

Key conclusion of theoretical paper published in Pramana
Journal is peer-reviewed publication of Indian Academy of Sciences
“A primer for electro-weak induced low energy nuclear reactions”
“The analysis presented in this paper leads us to
conclude that realistic possibilities exist for designing
LENR devices capable of producing ‘green energy’, that
is, production of excess heat at low cost without lethal
nuclear waste, dangerous γ-rays or unwanted neutrons.
The necessary tools and the essential theoretical know-
how to manufacture such devices appear to be well
within the reach of the technology available now.
Vigorous efforts must now be made to develop such
devices whose functionality requires all three
interactions of the Standard Model acting in concert.”

Publications about the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRs
Index provides comprehensive guide to available online information
“Ultra low momentum neutron catalyzed nuclear reactions on metallic
hydride surfaces”
A. Widom and L. Larsen (author’s copy)
European Physical Journal C - Particles and Fields 46 pp. 107 - 112 (2006)
http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/widom-and-larsen-ulm-neutron-
catalyzed-lenrs-on-metallic-hydride-surfacesepjc-march-2006
“A primer for electro-weak induced low energy nuclear reactions”
Y. Srivastava, A. Widom, and L. Larsen (author’s copy)
Pramana - Journal of Physics 75 pp. 617 - 637 (2010)
http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/srivastava-widom-and-larsenprimer-for-
electroweak-induced-low-energy-nuclear-reactionspramana-oct-2010
“Theoretical Standard Model rates of proton to neutron conversions near
metallic hydride surfaces”
A. Widom and L. Larsen
Cornell physics preprint arXiv:nucl-th/0608059v2 12 pages (2007)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/nucl-th/0608059v2.pdf
“Index to key concepts and documents” all hyperlinks in document are live
v. #21 updated and revised through Sept. 7, 2015
L. Larsen, Lattice Energy LLC, May 28, 2013 [133 slides] download is enabled
http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-hyperlinked-index-to-
documents-re-widomlarsen-theory-and-lenrs-september-7-2015

Recent books about LENRs and the Widom-Larsen theory
Three volumes in series titled “Explorations in Nuclear Research”
Provides overview of entire field at level of Scientific American article
“Fusion Fiasco” (Volume 2)
Steven B. Krivit
Pacific Oaks Press, San Rafael, CA, November 11, 2016 (531 pages)
Paperback US$16.00; hardcover US$48.00; Kindle US$3.99
“Lost History” (Volume 3)
Steven B. Krivit
Pacific Oaks Press, San Rafael, CA, November 11, 2016 (380 pages)
PowerPoint synopsis of book with additional commentary:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0996886419
“Hacking the Atom” (Volume 1)
Steven B. Krivit
Pacific Oaks Press, San Rafael, CA, September 11, 2016 (484 pages)
http://tinyurl.com/z6fsbn2

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Lattice Energy LLC - Excessive reliance on renewable energy sources can threaten reliability of electricity grids - April 19 2017