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A definitive guide to the key Emerging Mobile Markets in 34 countries worldwide by Tariff Consultancy Ltd. From Afghanistan to Vietnam, 34 countries are profiled with over 200 mobile operators included.
<ul><li>Essentials & Key Features of the report: </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging Mobile Markets Pricing 2009 is a report published by Tariff Consultancy Ltd (TCL). </li></ul><ul><li>The report provides a comprehensive overview of mobile operators & their products in the 34 Emerging Markets across Europe, Asia, the Middle East & Latin America including China, Brazil & India. </li></ul><ul><li>For each country TCL provides details of fixed line & mobile penetration (as of the end of 2008) with a profile of all key mobile operators with subscriber numbers. </li></ul><ul><li>There is also a 5 year subscriber growth forecast to the end of 2013. The following countries are included in the report: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Afghanistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, Kenya, Latvia, Libya, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Vietnam. </li></ul></ul>
Key differences between Emerging Mobile Markets & Developed Mobile Markets
Report extract 1: Russian mobile market statistics For each of the 34 countries TCL provides key market statistics of the country and each operator followed by examples of key new mobile services. Country Russia Population 140.7 million GDP (USD) $2.088 trillion GDP (per capita (USD)) $14,700 GDP growth rate 8.1% pa Fixed lines 40.1 million Fixed line penetration 28.50% Mobile lines 153.3 million Mobile penetration 108% Country Russia Mobile Operator Number of subscribers (millions) Ownership MTS (Mobile TeleSystems) 61.4 Sistema group VimpelCom 42.3 Alfa group (44%), Telenor (29.9%) MegaFon 36.1 TeliaSonera (43.8%) Tele2 9.5 Tele2, Sweden SMARTS 4.0 Privately owned, but takeover bid tabled by MTS Total 153.3
<ul><li>The Key Take Away’s from the report – 1 </li></ul><ul><li>As of the end of 2008 the 34 countries surveyed accounted for approx. 2.1 billion of the total mobile subscriber base worldwide (around 4 billion users) – with an average mobile penetration rate of 46%. </li></ul><ul><li>By the end of 2013 subscribers in the 34 countries will more than double to 4.3 billion users with an average mobile penetration rate of 95%. </li></ul><ul><li>Although China and India will see the largest absolute increases in subscribers it will be countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Cambodia & Indonesia that will have the largest percentage growth rates. </li></ul><ul><li>The deployment of 3G services is a major trend, but the user adoption of services will continue to be constrained by 3G handset costs. </li></ul><ul><li>But 3G services are allowing Emerging Market subscribers to use mobile broadband and VoIP services. </li></ul><ul><li>Operators are moving away from per minute or per KB charges towards flat rate charges, including unlimited call packages, discounts for on-net calls, and bundled flat rate packages (which also include calls to selected international destinations. </li></ul>
<ul><li>The Key Take Away’s from the report – 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile operators are seeking low income groups as mobile penetration reaches maturity. Tactics include using sub-agents, door to door sales, e-card top-up’s and small denomination recharges. </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid subscriber growth means that market maturity is occurring relatively quickly – but the onset of multiple SIM ownership indicates that high penetration rates are possible (and currently stand at over 120% in Russia). </li></ul><ul><li>Some mobile operators are starting to deploy products for specific segments, in particular the youth segment which accounts for a large proportion of emerging market country populations (up to 55% of Afghanistan’s population). </li></ul><ul><li>The cost of entry into an Emerging Market continues to increase, with new licence and existing operator acquisition costs being inflated by purchasers from the Gulf States. </li></ul>
Report extract 3: Africa (Nigeria, Morocco, Libya, Kenya, Ghana & Egypt) subscriber forecast – 2008 to 2013
Report extract 5: Latin American (Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Colombia, Chile & Argentina) subscriber forecast – 2008 to 2013
Mobile penetration rates are to increase steadily over the next 5 years Mobile penetration across the 34 countries, from 2008 to 2013 – in millions of subscribers. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2109.5 2581 3069.2 3596.6 3981.4 4300.2
China remains the largest mobile market for the next 5 years, followed by India & Indonesia but it is not the fastest-growing. 2008 Subscribers 2009 Subscribers 2010 Subscribers 2011 Subscribers 2012 Subscribers 2013 Subscribers China 582 700 830 950 1000 1050 India 269.4 390 491 629 749 819 Indonesia 115.1 160 220 300 345 387 Brazil 135.9 170 190 203 215 226 Russia 153.5 158 163 167 171 175 Pakistan 87.8 96 106 115 124 132 Nigeria 53.3 60 75 97 110 124 Mexico 73.8 82 91 100 108 114 Philippines 62.7 73 81 90 97 105 Bangladesh 44.8 56 68 80 91 103 Vietnam 39.4 50 65 80 91 101 Turkey 63.8 70 76 82 90 98 Iran 35 48 60 74 86 98 Thailand 56.4 62 70 77 84 91
Forecast mobile subscriber growth 2008 to 2013 - CAGR percentage by country (low to highest)
<ul><li>Emerging Mobile Markets continue to see consistent subscriber growth over the next 5 years, even after the current credit crunch as mobile penetration rates approach mature market levels. Markets remain predominately Pre-Paid. </li></ul><ul><li>Pricing is becoming more competitive as countries liberalise and new mobile entrants aim to increase market share. </li></ul><ul><li>The deployment of 3G networks is encouraging the adoption of new data, VoIP and Mobile Broadband services among users who are under-served by fixed network alternatives. Operators like Orange are introducing “Internet Everywhere” packages to emerging markets. </li></ul><ul><li>Afghanistan followed by Iraq, Cambodia, Indonesia and India have the highest levels of subscriber growth over the next 5 years. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile Broadband services are becoming established with 3G networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Discounts for “on-net” calling continues to promote multiple SIM ownership </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flat-rate services are offering flat rate data, national & international voice calls </li></ul></ul>The new main trends for Emerging Mobile Markets into 2009
Contact Points: Margrit Sessions, Managing Director E-mail: [email_address] Keith Breed, Research Director E-mail: [email_address] www.telecomspricing.com